Ade's Sports Tipping Log (No football)

So a brief history lesson. I'm not big into tennis viewing (loved playing it as a kid). But I adore Wimbledon. Been fortunate to have been there a couple of times too in a few years back. I have loved it since the early noughties. It was great summer viewing. Still very much quite vividly remember Goran Ivanisevic as a wildcard beating Pat Rafter in the final in 2001. Then year also saw passing of the torch really between Sampras and Nadal in the 1/4 finals I think. Two iconic moments.

Anyway I'm waffling on a tad. It's late, so I'll just go into my outright bets which I'm sure could be called predictable but sure, tennis is predictable for the most hence the odds!

Women's Bets -

Right, I'll start with the ladies first. As ever, this is the harder one to call but the one where you can find value as a result. I'll be going for two bets here. The first one being the lovely Maria Sharapova @ 11/4 (Bet 365) as my banker bet I guess you call it and Li Na @ 33/1 e/w (Paddypower) as my outsider bet.

Sharapova has all the momentum after winning at Roland Garos. She took apart last year's Wimbledon Champion, Petra Kvitova on route to winning the French Open which as most know is played on a clay surface... Sharpova's weakest surface. Her best being grass

As for Li, the 2011 French Open Champion has a really impressive record against my gal, Sharapova. Four victories in the last five, all of which in straight sets. C'mon, that's impressive. Schneeeeaky bet on her for me.

Men's Bet -

Not feeling the best as I type this and again, I stress the time. So no real comment for now, other than to say Novak Djokovic @ 13/8.

20 a piece on the favourite's, and 10 on Li Na are my stakes.

As for match bets, I'll leave tomorrow alone unless something catches the eye. I do usually cherry pick matches over the first week before really getting involved from round 4/QF onwards.

Gonna look into the WNBA games a little later on and see what that throws up. One early tip off is at 5.05PM and the other two are on after midnight. More than likely focus on the latter two if anything.

I imagine they will void it going by past experience.

-Ade- wrote: »

Seattle Storm @ 20/31, medium stake.

W

Played it a tad safe, but a win is a win.

For the first time the Irish Open will be held north of the border at one of the premier links courses on this island, Royal Portrush GC. Home course for the likes of Darren Clarke and Graeme McDowell. Always important to note the forecast, and it's not the most pleasant for the 4 days up there. So for me, I'm looking at players who can handle such conditions on such a course. Easy option would be for the Irish guys this week, but it's never been a tourney for them surprisingly. Shane Lowry's win at Baltray a couple of years ago aside. That was also on a links course btw.

But this week I'm looking at Paul Lawrie and Simon Dyson.

Paul Lawrie @ 22/1 is a former Open Champion. He won at arguably the most difficult Open Championship most certainly in my lifetime back in 99 up at Carnoustie. So you know he can play the links in brutal conditions. Now, I have had money him a couple of weeks ago and tbh, he was a tad disappointing from the little I saw. But the week before at Wentworth was why I went for him the following week in Wales. He was striking the ball pure. His control especially with his irons was magnificent.

Simon Dyson @ 33/1 is my 2nd bet and is the defending champion having won at Killarney last year, which is a very contrasting course compared to Royal Portrush. The reason why I like Dyson this week, odds aside is he is a battler of a golfer and extremely consistent. No missed cuts this season on the European Tour. The only cut he has missed was at the 1st Major of the year, at Augusta in The Masters. In the last 2 years, he has recorded five Top 10 finishes on links courses. Very impressive stat. What adds further weight to that is the fact that in his last 3 competitions he has had two T12 finishes. So it's evidently clear that he is in control of his game and in my eyes is heading for another strong finish.

Finally, my hometown picks for this week are a bit out of left field when compared to the rest of the Irish players there this week. First name is i Michael Hoey @ 50/1. The guy knows the course very well due to his family having owned a home nearby the course when he was younger, and according to a friend of mine played very well in the Pro Am and was striking the ball nicely on the range today.

For my final hometown pick, I'll have a wee bet on local boy Alan Dunbar who lives beside the course. Portrush is listed as his favourite course and last season he won both the Irish Amateur and North of Ireland titles on this course. Only last week did he win the British Amateur at Royal Troon, a top drawer links course in Scotland. I know, I know, an amateur some would say! But sure, Lowry was an amateur when he won the Irish Open. At the odds set for him, he is well worth a punt.

Paul Lawrie @ 22/1 (Bet 365)
Simon Dyson @ 33/1 e/w (Bet 365)
Michael Hoey @ 50/1 e/w (Boylesports)
Alan Dunbar @ 125/1 e/w (Bet 365)

___

As for the golf in the US. Quite like Seung-Yul Noh @ 66/1, perhaps later today/early tomorrow I might put a few quid on him. Still not sure.

-Ade- wrote: »

Wimbledon 2012 Outright Bets

So a brief history lesson. I'm not big into tennis viewing (loved playing it as a kid). But I adore Wimbledon. Been fortunate to have been there a couple of times too in a few years back. I have loved it since the early noughties. It was great summer viewing. Still very much quite vividly remember Goran Ivanisevic as a wildcard beating Pat Rafter in the final in 2001. Then year also saw passing of the torch really between Sampras and Nadal in the 1/4 finals I think. Two iconic moments.

Anyway I'm waffling on a tad. It's late, so I'll just go into my outright bets which I'm sure could be called predictable but sure, tennis is predictable for the most hence the odds!

Women's Bets -

Right, I'll start with the ladies first. As ever, this is the harder one to call but the one where you can find value as a result. I'll be going for two bets here. The first one being the lovely Maria Sharapova @ 11/4 (Bet 365) as my banker bet I guess you call it and Li Na @ 33/1 e/w (Paddypower) as my outsider bet.

Sharapova has all the momentum after winning at Roland Garos. She took apart last year's Wimbledon Champion, Petra Kvitova on route to winning the French Open which as most know is played on a clay surface... Sharpova's weakest surface. Her best being grass

As for Li, the 2011 French Open Champion has a really impressive record against my gal, Sharapova. Four victories in the last five, all of which in straight sets. C'mon, that's impressive. Schneeeeaky bet on her for me.

Men's Bet -

Not feeling the best as I type this and again, I stress the time. So no real comment for now, other than to say Novak Djokovic @ 13/8.

20 a piece on the favourite's, and 10 on Li Na are my stakes.

As for match bets, I'll leave tomorrow alone unless something catches the eye. I do usually cherry pick matches over the first week before really getting involved from round 4/QF onwards.

Nadal out in the 2nd round, unreal! Not going to say Novak will definitely win, but **** me, I'll be disappointed if he doesn't win this now lol.

stingerro wrote: »

Ade - any UFC predictions? Just had a time to talk in the office with my friend who is announcing MMA shows on Eurosport and looking at major fights odds he told me backing Ortiz is the best bet here. In his opinion he is the only underdog who have a legit chance to win, he'll fight against Forrest Griffin.

I'm taking little break from betting (just wanted some fresh air so to speak ) and thus haven't researched anything in the past two days. Clear head , and I might have a look tomorrow though, if not Wednesday at the very latest re: UFC 148 bets.

Was occupied all yesterday (and will probably be for most of tomorrow), so I have had no time for a proper write up now.

Have had previous success at the Greenbier, lovely lay out. Gone with the following players, Webb Simpson and Noh.

Webb Simpson @ 16/1
Noh @ 45/1

In Europe, my first pick I have gone for Kaymer. His collapse on the back 9 on Sunday still irks me as he ended my multi sports accum that year :mad: But he does love this course based on past form. Colsaerts is my other bet for this. Big fan of this course btw, love the finishing stretch of holes in particular.

Kaymer @ 14/1
Colsaerts @ 33/1


PS: Sharapova :rolleyes:

Well the tennis sucked -_-

Gone for a few small stake bets based on tips from some tramp. I'll just C and P his PM. I'm sure he won't mind

Leeg17 wrote:

Hey, my justification below:

Stats (which obviously will be picked with bias for the purpose of my tip):

1. Silva has the longest win streak in UFC history (14) with the highest number of title defenses (9), a win on Saturday will bring him to 10
2. 24/31 of his wins have come by stoppage with only 23% coming via the judge's decision, the highest in the UFC.
3. Sonnen has allowed the 3rd highest amount of serious submission attempts in all of the UFC (18) with all of his losses coming via submission.
4. Silva has 68.5% land rate on his strikes.
5. Silva has 80% takedown defense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFjabcEgrzI

Background:
They last fought at UFC 117 in August 2010. Sonnen was the 4/1 underdog before the start of the fight but absolutely dominated for 23 minutes of the 25 minute fight. He landed more strikes in one fight than all of Silva's previous UFC opponents combined. He had Silva on his back for around 19 minutes, again, more than all his previous UFC matches combined. Silva looked dead on his feet, and Sonnen was all but confirmed as the champion.. and then the seemingly impossible. Silva got Sonnen in a submission, a triangle choke/armbar, and Sonnen tapped (was rumoured to have blacked out too).

The fight:
Can safely say this is the fight I've been looking forward to the most since I've started watching UFC. Hype has been building for months, much of it from Sonnen's thrash talking not only of Silva, but his family and indeed the Brazilian people. Silva has, up until very recently, brushed it off and remained cool. Sonnen may be thinking/hoping that Silva gets riled up, makes easy mistakes and capitalise on them, but I don't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZG0sNDa2JQ

Silva will win this, comprehensively in my opinion (obviously there will be others that disagree completely). He knows his weaknesses and more importantly after watching the early December fight against Micheal Bisping, Sonnen's weaknesses. Sonnen will have to shoot (early) for a takedown and hope to grind out a submission/points win, but Silva will have trained his TD defence a fair bit since the last fight and will be expecting Sonnen's gameplan well in advance. Silva is so fluid on his feet it's unbelievable, and a pleasure to watch. I can see Silva landing an early KO, possibly in the second round if it stays standing, or a late submission if it's taken to the ground. I don't see this fight going to a decision, but at 4/11 the odds on a Silva straight win aren't worth it.

My predictions:
Sonnen will come in fast and early for a takedown, Silva will have good TD defence and keep the fight standing. Smart and calculated striking will soon wear Sonnen down leading to a KO by the third round.

Silva via KO/Sub - Dropped to 1/2 now
Griffin/Ortiz fight to go the distance - 8/13 - Confident enough on this, wouldn't do anything more than small stakes though because Ortiz could get finished.
Dyon Hung Kim - Win - 8/11 - Rumours are going about on some forums that Demian Maia was unwell trying to cut weight for the fight and while this may just be a rumour, if true it would definitely affect his performance.

Golf - John Deere Classic (PGA Tour) and Scottish Open (European Tour)

Just quickly throwing these up as I'm somewhat occupied at present. Admittedly I'm a wee bit annoyed they've been tipped by a few places. But sure what can you do. If you've ever took note of my bets, then these bets/tips are hardly surprising.

Stricker @ 7/1 and Pettersson @ 40/1

In the US I've gone for the defending champion, who won me money last year (look back in the main gambling section thread) and is going for his fourth win at this event now. Clearly loves this course.

Take note of my comment earlier in thread about Pettersson. He's a birdie machine and this course will lead to many, many birdies being made.

Colsaerts @ 20/1

In Scotland, and still on the links with a week before the Open Championship I'm going for the man I backed last week and a couple of times this season, and whom will be one of my bets next week (I'll probably place that bet tomorrow at some point btw)