Sussex Stakes - Page 6 - boards.ie
Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
07-08-2012, 22:32   #76
ArmaniJeanss
Registered User
 
ArmaniJeanss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Looking for an important part of my brain somewher
Posts: 7,898
It will actually be good to see Excelebration in a couple of G1s Mile races this year and presumably next year* without the presence of Frankel, will definitely give us something to support whether above average champion 135 or a megastar 140 is closer to Frankels mark.

I think the 'he must run in the Arc / Breeders Cup' gang are fairly lol btw, but the 'he is potentially overrated' gang do at least have a well put together and plausible case.


* I assume they would have campaigned him different if they intended retiring him soon
ArmaniJeanss is offline  
Advertisement
07-08-2012, 23:50   #77
tryfix
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,080
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morgans View Post
So, you are saying that if they rated it through Maybe, they would have been wrong, and eventhough they didnt, you are saying that the system is wrong? They didnt use Maybe as the form didnt stack up, if Maybe ran to 110, then other horses would have been jacked up.

Timeform dont use the anchor method to rate races, its all in the links that have been sent. Its one of the reasons why there is a larger divergence between Official ratings and Timeform these days.
I won't argue with Timeform, they've their own complex methodology but it's not infallible.

What I was showing with Homecoming Queen is that using the runner who has run reasonably close to their proper level of performance is a very good indicator of how to rate the horse. The 120 OR for Homecomings Queens win looks too high and based on Starscopes subsequent form, the 116 based on what Homecoming Queen actually achieved looks more realistic. Timeform have Homecoming Queen on 120, with their slightly higher ratings the OR looks like it should be closer to the 116 mark that the reliable anchor gave.

To get Frankel to 140, the BHA had to bump up Indomito by 4lb. Subsequent events in Germany have not shown any reason to think that Indomito was 4lb too low in the ratings.

Bumping up horses in a race where the winner was 11l clear of the field seems to be a suspect way of going about rating horses. Side Glance raised 1lb, Indomito raised 4lb, Windsor Palace raised 2lb.

Side glance 113 raised to 114 beaten by 23lb gives Frankel 136 or 137.

Indomito 108 raised to 112 beaten by 25lb gives Frankel 133 or 137.

Windsor Palace 104 raised to 106 beaten by 31lb gives Frankel 135 or 137.

Frankel was given a rating of 140 after the race.

In the Lockinge Frankel gave Excelebration 126 dropped to 125 a 10lb beating giving Frankel a rating of 136 or 135. Dubawi Gold 117 was beaten 18lb in the race giving Frankel a rating of 135.

Frankel was give an OR of 138 after that race.

He's running to 135 on the button if you strip out the dodgy jump in ratings for Windsor Palace and Indomito.

Last edited by tryfix; 08-08-2012 at 14:37.
tryfix is offline  
08-08-2012, 00:48   #78
Overthelast
Closed Account
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,446
Quote:
Originally Posted by tryfix View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morgans View Post
There have been plenty of chances to give in to the media hype in the past decade, especially when there is a huge battle for breeding domination. Horses like Giants Causeway, Rock of Gibraltar, and lately So You Think have gained huge press without ever posting an outstanding rating. Galileo also, Camelot this year. Horses like Peintre Celebre, Hellissio, Harbinger have got huge ratings without the hype. Rating inflation can happen over a few years - Im beginning to wonder if Kauto Star and Denman are both overrated for the last few years - but the reason why Frankel has the rating he has done is for his domination on the track. And giving horses conservatively rated in the mid 120s hammerings. His average winning distance in group 1s is 5l.
There's a whole load of variables to be considered. Homecoming Queen appeared to run to a mark of 136 ( OR 120 ) in the 1,000 Guineas if you took Maybe 116 and 10l back in third into account, but she didn't run to 136, she ran to 116 based on Starscope 98 beaten 9L in second. Starscope has only run to a hundred since so she's a solid enough base to rate what looked to be a really difficult race to judge.

What makes Frankel so impressive is that he does it almost every time and it looks like there's more in the locker. He appears to be getting better all the time, which is amazing considering how good he was at two and three. He's the best miler I've seen since Zilzal. The problem in rating him is that there's a lack of miler competition and a lack of an outstanding 3yo miler to test him. The biggest compliment to him is that everything is running scared of him. He probably is a 140+ horse but unless a top 10f horse like Cirrus Des Aigles rated in the high 120s takes him on at 10f before the end of the year there's little hope of confirming it. In years gone by you'd expect championship class horses like Frankel and Camelot to meet in a race like the Irish Champion Stakes.

Peintre Celebre, Hellissio, and Harbinger were all lightly campaigned horses, which is a huge help when you're trying to win championship races. Aidan O' Brien normally run his top 3 yo horses into the ground by the time the Arc comes along, so if Camelot turns up in it this year, he'll have a much better chance than any of his previous three year old runners.

I'm not much of a one for the Jumpers anymore but Kauto Star was the real deal, the best NH horse I've seen, better than Desert Orchid and Carvills Hill. Denman never impressed me too much.
This debate has been worthwhile. I consider myself fortunate enough to see kauto star, denman and sea the stars in the flesh. That's why I travelled to the uk last week to see HIM in the flesh. I have never seen a beast like HIM. Best of luck with the ratings debate. While I respect your analysis, I'm not sure we'll arrive at a consensus anytime soon. Why don't we just agree that we are witnessing one of the best thoroughbred horses to grace the turf- long may he stay fit and healthy so we can enjoy him do what he loves best, and that is to race.
Overthelast is offline  
08-08-2012, 00:52   #79
Morgans
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 3,393
Quote:
Originally Posted by tryfix View Post
I won't argue with Timeform, they've their own complex methodology but it's not infallible.

What I was showing with Homecoming Queen is that using the runner who has run reasonably close to their proper level of performance is a very good indicator of how to rate the horse. The 120 OR for Homecomings Queens win looks too high and based on Starscopes subsequent form, the 116 based on what Homecoming Queen actually achieved looks more realistic. Timeform have Homecoming Queen on 120, with their slightly higher ratings the OR looks like it should be closer to the 116 mark that the reliable anchor gave.

To get Frankel to 140, the BHA had to bump up Indomito by 4lb. Subsequent events in Germany have not shown any reason to think that Indomito was 4lb too low in the ratings.

Bumping up horses in a race where the winner was 11l clear of the field seems to be a suspect way of going about rating horses. Side Glance raised 1lb, Indomito raised 4lb, Windsor Palace raised 2lb.

Side glance 113 raised to 114 beaten by 23lb gives Frankel 134 or 135.

Indomito 108 raised to 112 beaten by 25lb gives Frankel 133 or 137.

Windsor Palace 104 raised to 106 beaten by 31lb gives Frankel 135 or 137.

Frankel was given a rating of 140 after the race.

In the Lockinge Frankel gave Excelebration 126 dropped to 125 a 10lb beating giving Frankel a rating of 136 or 135. Dubawi Gold 117 was beaten 18lb in the race giving Frankel a rating of 135.

Frankel was give an OR of 138 after that race.

He's running to 135 on the button if you strip out the dodgy jump in ratings for Windsor Palace and Indomito.
You do know that if the race was run 30 mins later, Frankel would have won by 12l and not 11l. Just something to throw into the mix. As I said, email the BHA or Timeform. I'm sure they will supply you with the clarification you need.
Morgans is offline  
08-08-2012, 01:03   #80
tryfix
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,080
I'll sign off the debate over Frankels rating with a look at Sea The Stars best race. Just to give a bit of perspective on the ratings. Sea The Stars OR 133 going into the Irish Champion Stakes.

Beat Fame and Glory 126 raised to 129 by 4.375lb giving him a rating of 130/131 or 133/134.

Beat Master Craftsman 127 by 8.75lb giving him a rating of 135/6.

Beat Grand Ducal 107 raised to 110 24.5lb giving him a rating of 131/2 or 134/135.

Beat Lord Admiral 108 by 31.5lb giving him a rating of 139/140.

Sea The Stars was given an OR rating of 136 for the race, Frankel shades it but it'd be a close enough race between them.
tryfix is offline  
Advertisement
08-08-2012, 22:22   #81
Gringo180
Registered User
 
Gringo180's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 5,038
Quote:
Originally Posted by tryfix View Post
I'll sign off the debate over Frankels rating with a look at Sea The Stars best race. Just to give a bit of perspective on the ratings. Sea The Stars OR 133 going into the Irish Champion Stakes.

Beat Fame and Glory 126 raised to 129 by 4.375lb giving him a rating of 130/131 or 133/134.

Beat Master Craftsman 127 by 8.75lb giving him a rating of 135/6.

Beat Grand Ducal 107 raised to 110 24.5lb giving him a rating of 131/2 or 134/135.

Beat Lord Admiral 108 by 31.5lb giving him a rating of 139/140.

Sea The Stars was given an OR rating of 136 for the race, Frankel shades it but it'd be a close enough race between them.
Would Hawk Wings Lockinge demolition job be rated higher than Frankels Queen Anne win, I seem to remember he had Domedriver (who had just won the breeders cup mile the year before) about 15 lenghts back in 3rd??
Gringo180 is offline  
09-08-2012, 01:11   #82
tryfix
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,080
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gringo180 View Post
Would Hawk Wings Lockinge demolition job be rated higher than Frankels Queen Anne win, I seem to remember he had Domedriver (who had just won the breeders cup mile the year before) about 15 lenghts back in 3rd??
Well he theoretically ran to at least 144/145 but didn't get that rating for winning it, he had an end of season rating OR of 134 ( wikipedia ) although the racing post says OR 137.

In The Lockinge.

He beat 2nd Where Or When 123 by 11l or 22lb giving a rating of 145.

He beat 3rd Olden Times 116 by 19l or 38lb giving a rating of 144.

He beat 4th Domedriver 119 by 20l or 40lb giving a rating of 159.

He beat 5th Reel Buddy 114 by 20 3/4l or 41 1/2lb giving a rating of 146.

Mad stuff, but if you take the two horses Olden times and Reel Buddy they ran to form with each other. Maybe he ran a one off freak race of 144, but because he couldn't repeat the task it couldn't be taken seriously.

He was a strange horse, take his Derby second to High Chaparral, a very underrated race IMO.

High Chaparral was given an OR of 126 for beating him 2l.

Third placed Moon Ballad 115 was beaten 14l or 21lb giving a possible 136 rating for High Chaparral and 133 for Hawkwing.

Fourth placed Jelani 106 was beaten 15l or 22 1/2lb giving a possible rating of 129/130 for High Chaparral and 126/127 for Hawkwing.

If High Chaparral hadn't been in the Derby, Hawkwing as a Champion 2yo who had gone on to win the Derby by 12l and the Lockinge by 11l would look like the horse he was, one capable of monster performances on his going days.
tryfix is offline  
(2) thanks from:
09-08-2012, 18:58   #83
tryfix
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,080
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morgans View Post
You do know that if the race was run 30 mins later, Frankel would have won by 12l and not 11l. Just something to throw into the mix. As I said, email the BHA or Timeform. I'm sure they will supply you with the clarification you need.
I'm prepared to admit that Frankels times could be boosting his rating.

So for the hell of it I looked at his finishing time in the Queen Anne and compared it to the time that the 3 yo Most Improved carrying the same weight posted an hour later in the St James Palace stakes. 1m 40.14 for the three year old and 1.37.85 for Frankel gives Frankel a superiority of 2.29 seconds.

At 6 lengths per second that gives Frankel a superiority of 13.74 lengths x 2lb per length = 27.5 lb superiority over Most Improved.

Add on another 2l or 4lb for the argument that the ground was drying by a length per half hour. That's 31.5llb minus the 10 lb WFA allowance that 3yos get in the second half of June. that gives Frankel 21.5lb superiority over the now 116 rated Most improved.

That makes his Queen Anne performance equal to somewhere between 133.5 and 137.5, but to get him to 137.5 you have to give him 4lb based on the belief that the ground was drying by 2l per hour.

For the record the 6 races that day went like this, 1st Frankel fast by 1.15, 2nd slow by 0.9, 3rd Most Improved slow by 0.14, 4th slow by 0.64, 5th slow by 9.5, 6th slow by 1.61.

There's no indication from those times that the track was speeding up by 2l or 4lb an hour. So it looks like Frankel most likely did actually run close to his usual 135 in the Queen Anne.
tryfix is offline  
10-08-2012, 14:07   #84
swimming in a sea
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 671
disappointing to see the York international now seems to be cutting up, Nathaniel looks like giving it a miss,
swimming in a sea is offline  
Advertisement
10-08-2012, 14:52   #85
tryfix
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,080
Quote:
Originally Posted by swimming in a sea View Post
disappointing to see the York international now seems to be cutting up, Nathaniel looks like giving it a miss,
I wonder will Imperial Monarch go for it instead of St Nick who has never looked like a 10f horse, a spanking by Frankel won't do his reputation any good.

Excelebration gets a chance to boost Frankel's form on Sunday in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, it looks a good race but I'd say he'll take it if he's bounced back from his last flop.
tryfix is offline  
10-08-2012, 17:28   #86
UrbanSea
Closed Account
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 18,293
I'd love to see Astrology race over 10 in a group 1
UrbanSea is offline  
13-08-2012, 22:36   #87
hucklebuck
Closed Account
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 4,089
On the Frankel comments that he would beat Sea The Stars over a mile, both ran the Guineas on GF and Sea The Stars had a quicker time.

Sure you can talk all you want about how the races were won but Frankel looked flat out and Sea The Star was looking better the further he went.
hucklebuck is offline  
Thanks from:
15-08-2012, 14:36   #88
Gringo180
Registered User
 
Gringo180's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 5,038
Quote:
Originally Posted by hucklebuck View Post
On the Frankel comments that he would beat Sea The Stars over a mile, [B] both ran the Guineas on GF and Sea The Stars had a quicker time. [/B}

Sure you can talk all you want about how the races were won but Frankel looked flat out and Sea The Star was looking better the further he went.
Didnt know that at all Very interesting indeed!
Gringo180 is offline  
15-08-2012, 16:08   #89
swimming in a sea
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 671
Quote:
Originally Posted by hucklebuck View Post
On the Frankel comments that he would beat Sea The Stars over a mile, both ran the Guineas on GF and Sea The Stars had a quicker time.

Sure you can talk all you want about how the races were won but Frankel looked flat out and Sea The Star was looking better the further he went.


Whatever argument can be made for Sea the Stars been better than Frankel its not this, in fact your only hurting your argument.
Going by official times Sea the Stars was 1.52 seconds faster than Frankel, no argument from me. But take a look and the race and you'll see about first 5 or 6 home all beat Frankels time.
So going by that he would not have been even placed in the 2009 Guineas,

Oh no I don't agree, Frankel is the finest miler at least since Brigadier Gerard, possibly Hawk Wing on his day would have been a match for him over 8F but not Sea the Stars.
swimming in a sea is offline  
(2) thanks from:
15-08-2012, 21:00   #90
hucklebuck
Closed Account
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 4,089
Quote:
Originally Posted by swimming in a sea View Post


Whatever argument can be made for Sea the Stars been better than Frankel its not this, in fact your only hurting your argument.
Going by official times Sea the Stars was 1.52 seconds faster than Frankel, no argument from me. But take a look and the race and you'll see about first 5 or 6 home all beat Frankels time.
So going by that he would not have been even placed in the 2009 Guineas,

Oh no I don't agree, Frankel is the finest miler at least since Brigadier Gerard, possibly Hawk Wing on his day would have been a match for him over 8F but not Sea the Stars.


Sounds like you are getting caught up in the hype of the "brilliant Guineas win by Frankel", it wasn't that special, Dubawi Gold and Native Khan were closing on him in the last furlong. Why is it so unbelievable that he wouldn't have placed if he was slower than three other horses?

Sea The Stars was a class apart, he fought for his head for 2f, he was not fully extended and he was quicker at the same age, same ground and same track. God knows what he would have done if he was let run free by Kinane.

I guess a direct comparison isn't enough to convince you though.

If you think Hawk Wing is possibly a match for Frankel I rest my case.
hucklebuck is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet