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ERSI economist leaves and advises "Get out now"

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭Solair


    It's really hard to know what to. Do. However, I'm just so sick of the waffle and uncertainty that I think I'm definitely off later this year. I don't mind paying higher taxes, but not when they're coupled with ever decreasing public services.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭Head The Wall


    I paid around 5% of my income to the govt last year via Income Tax, PRSI, USC etc. I have moved to London and will be earning the same wages here but in sterling and I will be paying 20%. I don't mind the increase because at least here I know I get proper services for it. At home you know it would just be pi55ed up against the wall


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,731 ✭✭✭Bullseye1


    I'm beginning to think he is right. 10 more years of this is 10 years too long.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,410 ✭✭✭bbam


    Bad news for those of us not in any position to move anywhere...
    It's hard to know if one should knuckle down and try harder to keep afloat or just give up, sit back and see what happens...
    Long hard hours away from the kids and then not knowing if it's going to be enough :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,731 ✭✭✭Bullseye1


    bbam wrote: »
    Bad news for those of us not in any position to move anywhere...
    It's hard to know if one should knuckle down and try harder to keep afloat or just give up, sit back and see what happens...
    Long hard hours away from the kids and then not knowing if it's going to be enough :(

    I feel bad for people trying to bring up a family and stuck in negative equity. There is no clear route out of this mess even with increased taxes. The unions have the government over a barrel so don't expect any significant reduction in public expenditure. Socialism is finishing the job capatilism started.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 182 ✭✭Taxi Drivers


    I paid around 5% of my income to the govt last year via Income Tax, PRSI, USC etc. I have moved to London and will be earning the same wages here but in sterling and I will be paying 20%. I don't mind the increase because at least here I know I get proper services for it. At home you know it would just be pi55ed up against the wall

    What proper services are you now getting?


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    What proper services are you now getting?
    I'd imagine he includes the ability to visit a GP without having to fork out €50+ for the privilege. Stuff like that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭Head The Wall


    Public transport that you can actually use and rely on. 5 minutes from a tube station with carriages coming every three minutes, buses every 6 minutes outside my door.

    Proper infrastructure, internet, good customer service from the Jobcentre, DVLA, NHS.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,204 ✭✭✭a148pro


    I heard he left because they wouldn't give him an album deal


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    Having seen a brief clip of the individual concerned on one of the news programs, I'm not sure if we will even miss him. He looked as if he would be very comfortable working very closely with the rest of the "bearded wonders" from the Social compact Trade Union representatives. We've seen what they were capable of over the last while, and I've yet to be impressed by the pontification that comes out of the ESRI.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Having seen a brief clip of the individual concerned on one of the news programs, I'm not sure if we will even miss him. He looked as if he would be very comfortable working very closely with the rest of the "bearded wonders" from the Social compact Trade Union representatives. We've seen what they were capable of over the last while, and I've yet to be impressed by the pontification that comes out of the ESRI.

    Well, if you were interested in having an informed opinion on the individual (hey, lets go nuts) you could do worse than venturing over to irisheconomy.ie and searching for posts started by Richard Tol as he posted very often over there on enviromental issues/policies. He ruffled quite a few feathers amongst those who adhered to the idea that doing anything at all was better than doing nothing and various other theological positions. Id think that on balance we will miss him because he tended to be pretty plain speaking when he criticised bad policymaking in Ireland.

    His parting shot at the ERSI is pretty blunt for starters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,820 ✭✭✭amacca


    He wasn't exactly pro trade union either was he?

    I quite liked him and I felt a lot of what he had to say made sense.....I also felt he tended to speak from a strictly logical standpoint and didn't seem to engage in banging his own drum too often


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,570 ✭✭✭Ulysses Gaze


    I'd imagine someone from the ESRI will be on Morning Ireland tomorrow in damage limitation mode. Wouldn't be surprised if they try and get a few digs in on Tol while they're at it.

    10 years is what a lot of people I know in business have been saying, although not out loud.

    We're hamstrung by an obsession with property which means we won't remove rent reliefs and upward only rent reviews and a lack of cojones to take on the PS unions.

    It leads to one hypothesis - a long, long depressive cycle.


  • Registered Users Posts: 182 ✭✭Taxi Drivers


    murphaph wrote: »
    I'd imagine he includes the ability to visit a GP without having to fork out €50+ for the privilege. Stuff like that.

    How often do people here have to wait two days (and sometimes weeks) to see a GP?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2039833/Wait-weeks-GP-Some-patients-face-delays-fortnight-appointment-family-doctor.html


    The 48-hour waiting time target for a GP visit was scrapped in July 2010.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10364566


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭saywhatyousee


    Public transport that you can actually use and rely on. 5 minutes from a tube station with carriages coming every three minutes, buses every 6 minutes outside my door.

    Proper infrastructure, internet, good customer service from the Jobcentre, DVLA, NHS.

    Bit of a difference though London has 8 million people its easier to provide better standard of public transport when there is more people.Never had an issue when dealing with any Irish government agency.No issue's with internet either i live in Sligo and i have 100mb broadband.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,588 ✭✭✭femur61


    What proper services are you now getting?


    I've lived in London so I can speak for the poster. Doctors visits free, dentist free, better infrastructure, better telecommunications. My taxes were not paying for an inflated PS.

    TBH if I didn't have family here I'd move.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    How often do people here have to wait two days (and sometimes weeks) to see a GP?

    Flash that 60quid cash and you can be seen straight away. If you don't have it and you work, tough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,909 ✭✭✭sarumite


    Bit of a difference though London has 8 million people its easier to provide better standard of public transport when there is more people.Never had an issue when dealing with any Irish government agency.No issue's with internet either i live in Sligo and i have 100mb broadband.

    I live partly in Dublin and partly in Gothenburg. Gothenburg has much better public transport than dublin and has a similar population size over a larger area.


  • Registered Users Posts: 532 ✭✭✭Fergus


    How often do people here have to wait two days (and sometimes weeks) to see a GP?

    How often do people here skip going to the GP and hope for the best because they just don't have 60 Euro lying around?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    Public transport that you can actually use and rely on. 5 minutes from a tube station with carriages coming every three minutes, buses every 6 minutes outside my door.

    Proper infrastructure, internet, good customer service from the Jobcentre, DVLA, NHS.

    not living in the same UK as me then, or not living there very long. How come you were paying 5% in Ireland in any case.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    Having seen a brief clip of the individual concerned on one of the news programs, I'm not sure if we will even miss him. He looked as if he would be very comfortable working very closely with the rest of the "bearded wonders" from the Social compact Trade Union representatives. We've seen what they were capable of over the last while, and I've yet to be impressed by the pontification that comes out of the ESRI.

    The ESRI were predicting 4% p/a growth from 2006-2015. In predicting the GDP they are out by30-40%


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,512 ✭✭✭Ellis Dee


    Easy for him (a Dutchman) to talk with a well-paid Professor's post in England to go to. And can he be certain that ten years of austerity lie ahead? After all, he's an economist, and if they were really the hot-sh1t-on-a-stick visionaries that they like to believe they are, our country would hardly have been led blindly into the morass it is now in.:rolleyes::rolleyes:

    Maybe it would be better in the long run to stick it out and try to get the country back on its feet again.:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,820 ✭✭✭amacca


    Ellis Dee wrote: »

    Maybe it would be better in the long run to stick it out and try to get the country back on its feet again.:)

    not for him it wouldn't be imo

    obviously one cant predict the future (who knows what disaster, scientific discovery etc could change things) but the idea that there could be another 10 years of austerity in store for Ireland is definitely not beyond the realms of possibility

    also the idea that one should take information provided by the ESRI with more than a grain of salt isn't unreasonable either


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ellis Dee wrote: »
    Easy for him (a Dutchman) to talk with a well-paid Professor's post in England to go to. And can he be certain that ten years of austerity lie ahead? After all, he's an economist, and if they were really the hot-sh1t-on-a-stick visionaries that they like to believe they are, our country would hardly have been led blindly into the morass it is now in.:rolleyes::rolleyes:

    Maybe it would be better in the long run to stick it out and try to get the country back on its feet again.:)

    most of the economists wheeled out on tv worked for the banks, i remember them on TV some introduced on RTE as experts when some didnt even have qualifications.

    Tol just explained why state employed economists get it wrong all the time too.....because they are not independent and simply tow the government line.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭daltonmd


    I listened to this guy giving an interview yesterday morning. He said, I'm paraphrasing here, that the ERSI was partly funded by certain organisation to conduct reports on their behalf - he said that the questions that really needed to be asked about this country were not asked for this reason. Giving his reasons for leaving he said that he had a young family and he did not trust this government to invest in education , he also said that he had taken a 32% paycut and while his job was secure, his wifes was not. On making enquiries he is of the opinion that his family will have a better standard of life in the UK. He said that it should be remembered that in order for this countryto reach the target deficit by 2015, that after that we start repaying the loans. Personally i found him very frank, not scathing of this country or indeed his employer, he was simply stating the facts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭robd


    I was lectured in economics by a deputy head from Central Bank. To say they towed the company line was an under statement. Remember the Central Bank is part of the ECB and thus not controlled by Irish Government at all. ESRI can only be magnitudes worse given they are really just a government funded quango.

    The most I could get with some of my very accurate pre-property crash predictions was a wry smile. Said person did admit that Central Banks line was to maintain stability which basically meant to water down every report and not scare the public or cause huge moves one way or the other.


    Ridiculous but there you go. That's the system.


  • Registered Users Posts: 724 ✭✭✭Park Royal


    Guess if Charles Haughey had not fecked up the plans CIE had for Temple Bar,

    transport would perhaps be better in Dublin....??


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭Head The Wall


    Yahew wrote: »
    How come you were paying 5% in Ireland in any case.

    People don't pay enough taxes in Ireland thats why. Check your pay slip or deloitte's tax calculator, there's some truth to the story about 50% of the workforce paying no taxes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,789 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Ellis Dee wrote: »
    Easy for him (a Dutchman) to talk with a well-paid Professor's post in England to go to. And can he be certain that ten years of austerity lie ahead? After all, he's an economist, and if they were really the hot-sh1t-on-a-stick visionaries that they like to believe they are, our country would hardly have been led blindly into the morass it is now in.:rolleyes::rolleyes:
    This is problem with this country, we would rather get our economics from media whores like Hobbs and McWilliams and then dismiss a guy with facial hair as someone who "would be very comfortable working very closely with Trade Union representative". Hobbs and McWilliams are soundbite merchants only interested in promoting their latest book/tv programme/seminar. And because very few economists predicted the banking crisis we will now dismiss all of them, even if they are experts in Environmental & Natural Resources and Energy, not banking.

    I have a lot of respect for Tol and he is exactly what we need in the ESRI - someone who owes nothing to no one and who is not afraid to speak his mind. Now he has had enough of being in the governments pocket and we will be left with spineless economists who will only be rolled out to back up the government because they know where their next pay cheque is coming from.

    I guess we want the same from out economists as we do from our politicians - people who will tell us what we want to hear but not what we need to hear.


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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    This is problem with this country, we would rather get our economics from media whores like Hobbs and McWilliams and then dismiss a guy with facial hair as someone who "would be very comfortable working very closely with Trade Union representative". Hobbs and McWilliams are soundbite merchants only interested in promoting their latest book/tv programme/seminar. And because very few economists predicted the banking crisis we will now dismiss all of them, even if they are experts in Environmental & Natural Resources and Energy, not banking.

    If we had a few more experts in Environment and the like, we'd not be in the situation where a Carbon tax is not really a carbon tax, it's a consumption tax because there are no viable alternatives at the moment, and some of the supposed alternatives are only suitable for young people with a lot of spare storage space in their property, I don't fancy the idea of lugging 25 Kg sacks of woodchip around given the quantity required, amd storing it will be a nightmare compared to the equivalent in oil.

    Maybe the clip RTE showed was intended to be slightly disrespectful, he certainly didn't come across at all well on that clip. I tried looking at the economics site pointed to by another poster, and didn't find any articles by him that got my attention.
    I have a lot of respect for Tol and he is exactly what we need in the ESRI - someone who owes nothing to no one and who is not afraid to speak his mind. Now he has had enough of being in the governments pocket and we will be left with spineless economists who will only be rolled out to back up the government because they know where their next pay cheque is coming from.

    And maybe that's the problem. The brief clip left the impression of a man that is not a public speaker, he may well be good at producing the reports and working with the information, but not good at then standing up and presenting it, and both skills are needed for people in the public eye.
    I guess we want the same from out economists as we do from our politicians - people who will tell us what we want to hear but not what we need to hear.

    Surprise surprise, NO, we need politicians that will be honest, because a lot more of us than they realise have seen through the sham, and pretense, and all the other bullsh1t that we've been fed with over the years, and we're hoping that maybe they will have the courage to actually do some of the things that were proposed in the manifesto documents. We need, desperately. a new direction that's going to take Ireland into the future, it's not communism, that's been proved to be a busted flush, and so has the form of capitalism that's been tried in recent years, all that turned out to be was a different form of communism without dictators that still ended up with a select few getting the majority of the benefits that were there. Somewhere between the 2 there is a way to run things that doesn't end up paying obscene bonuses to people that have done little more than move electrons around a computer system or two, and things like the present medical system where too many people spend time working out which insurance company is paying for which paper napkin is also absurd. EU rules on the shape, size colour curvature etc of bananas (or cucumbers, or cabbages or whatever) are exactly that, rules for a banana republic, which we can neither justify or afford. A company I do work for has a small cleaning device that uses about 20 Litres of Kerosene. It's serviced every couple of months to replace the solvent, and the local authority charge for the paperwork relating to the "disposal" of the kerosene is €30. That's more than the value of the kerosene, and an absurd charge for what's involved, and we're full of all manner of similar regulations that are only providing work for people that might otherwise be unemployable.

    Why does an NCT serve as an acceptable proof of roadworthiness for a car, but a DOE certificate not provide the same for a commercial equivalent, and cost an extra €13 to change a certificate of test for an almost identical certificate of roadworthiness. That's just a jobs for the boys job at the relevant local authority to justify their existence.

    Need a new tax? How about putting a serious level of tax on imported bottled water. Bottled water is needed at the moment because the quality of tap water is sometimes questionable, but imported from all over the place, with the energy costs of shipping it to Ireland? That's definitely a luxury, so why not tax that significantly.

    Plenty of other areas that could be discussed as well, but danger of tl;dr if we're not careful, even in the politics forum, the attention span is sometimes limited.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



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