[Article] Road deaths at record low level

Hi

Last February, Cyclist.ie sent a letter on this issue to the Depts of Justice and Transport following attempts by the Garda commissioner to claim credit for the fall in road deaths. I won't append the whole document just the relevant sections.

Later


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The effect of fuel price on traffic accidents

In the US, researchers have compared the average prices of gasoline with the number of fatal traffic accidents between 1985 to 2006. They found that for each 10% increase in gas prices, fatal traffic accidents declined 2.3%. They also found that the level of fatalities decreased by over twice as much (by 6%) in the younger range of drivers who tend to drive more recklessly. Based on this observed effect of fuel prices, it was being predicted that for 2008 the US would experience the lowest traffic fatalities since 1961. The Associated Press quotes a director of the US National Safety council as stating "When the economy is in the tank and fuel prices are high, you typically see a decline in miles driven and traffic deaths". In the US, the chief
executive of Mothers Against Drunk Driving has also credited high gas prices with helping to curb drunk driving.

Between July 2007 and July 2008, Irish petrol prices increased by 13% percent from 117.8c to 133.5c. Diesel prices went up by 32% in the same period from 109c to 143.8c. This was against a background of fuel prices that have been rising since 2004. Given the trend seen elsewhere, it is reasonable to ask if this was something that would also be likely influence Irish driver behaviour?

Reduced economic activity

The recent drop in fuel prices might have been expected to reverse any associated downward trends in road deaths. However, Ireland has now moved into a pronounced economic downturn. In road safety research, it is a long established observation that road deaths tend to track indicators of economic activity such as employment rates. Time series studies in the following countries are reported to have found a correlation between upward and downward trends employment rates and similar trends in road deaths: the U.S. (1948-1987), Sweden (1962-1987), West Germany (1960-1983),
Finland (1965-1983), Canada (1960-1986), United Kingdom (1960-1985),
Netherlands (1968-1986), Switzerland (1967-1994). Experts on traffic safety and driver behaviour such as Prof. Gerald Wilde of Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario and Prof. Rudiger Trimpop of the German University
of Jena have proposed that this effect is due to an increase in the relative costs of crashes. When money is scarce, even a small accident can be a financial burden because costs of insurance repairs etc have risen relative to real income. Simultaneously the benefits expected from risky behaviour are reduced, because time is worth less money. There is less to be gained from behaviours like driving fast, driving through a red or amber light or breaking the rules in other ways.

In Ireland, the Live Register reportedly saw the biggest 12-month increase since records began in 1967 with an unadjusted increase of 120,987 or 71% in the year to December 2008. Again given the trends seen in other countries, it is reasonable to ask if this was something that would also be expected to affect Irish driver behaviour?

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