Ultimate Bet Also Rigged?

ianmc38 · 10-01-2008 4:48am #1

First glance suggests so:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=99247&page=1

green123 · 10-01-2008 5:02am

any chance of a quick summary for the lazy ?

Theresalwaysone · 10-01-2008 5:09am

wow that is pretty sick. You see some heavyweights getting behind it too.

Cts and durr thinking they were playing against super users? Sick really isnt it?

TommyGunne · 10-01-2008 5:10am

Cliffnotes: Lots of HSNLers seem to think there may have been a superuser on UltimateBet as well as Absolute. They all got taken for loads by a donk running like 60/40. He played very passively till river and very aggro on river which would be in the pattern of superusers. Lots of hand histories an moaning about his sick play...

Biggest piece of evidence imo is that NioNio(his SN) stopped playing roughly the day the Absolute scam was rumbled. The SN does now doesn't exist. User would have had to e-mail UltimateBet to delete SN.

How many rich donk that make 500,000 stop playing after a couple 1000 hands.

Stats on villain say he's running at 75BB/100 over 3000 hands against some of the toughest games around. There are suggestions that someone else has another 5000 hands at same winrate making 8000 at 75BB/100 at 25/50 and 50/100.

Cue x-file music and conspiracy theories.

Theresalwaysone · 10-01-2008 5:10am

Edit: cheers tommy

bops · 10-01-2008 11:06am

it was probably just me, i run good sometimes

5starpool · 10-01-2008 11:37am

I play on UB, but I don't think I have much to worry about at 1/2 PLO somehow. Some of th edummies there can't even see their own cards, never mind others.

Ste05 · 10-01-2008 11:51am

Just to stem the whole "on-line Poker is rigged" brigade.

UB is owned by the same company that owns AP, so if this turns out to be true, it's more a case of one bad apple then a completely rotten orchard.

dvdfan · 10-01-2008 11:55am

Why would someone be so stupid if they had the ability to see cards to play in a fashion that would stand out, they could make a small profit every day (well small compared to HSNL) and go unnoticed for a long time, dopes

hf4z6sqo7vjngi · 10-01-2008 12:08pm

dvdfan wrote: »

Why would someone be so stupid if they had the ability to see cards to play in a fashion that would stand out, they could make a small profit every day (well small compared to HSNL) and go unnoticed for a long time, dopes

Very true DVD i have been getting away with for years now:rolleyes:

bops · 10-01-2008 12:11pm

dvdfan wrote: »

Why would someone be so stupid if they had the ability to see cards to play in a fashion that would stand out, they could make a small profit every day (well small compared to HSNL) and go unnoticed for a long time, dopes

greed is a very powerful emotional state

also he/she would be fearful of the length of time they have this ability for (as in security updates etc)

also, in general, people are stupid

then again, get in, make a quick half mill, get out when feeling the heat, how bad??

Macspower · 10-01-2008 12:46pm

Just read it all..... Looks to me like we have another..... DAMN

bad for the business!!!

Problem is that the sites in question don't seem to loose out.... some of the big player boycot the site and the other guys seem to say.... yer man xxx is gone from there it's softer now.... and off they all go and play there?

stevire · 10-01-2008 1:00pm

Fair enough his stats are high but take a look at the last post

The stats for the most part seem convincing, but I also think his W$SF% is a little low for what I'd expect a superuser to have. 50 is extremely high normally, but considering Kotkis has a W$SF of 52-53 in his PT screenshot for 07, I can't help but not feel totally convinced that this guy can see hole cards.

Any examples given are not that convincing.... I think most of the hands given are standard for a good player.

I could be wrong but to me just looks like these guys are venting cause they got outplayed for a good sum of money :rolleyes:

Just my 2 cents....

Mellor · 10-01-2008 1:01pm

Is UB and AP not the same site and/or company?

stevire · 10-01-2008 1:03pm

Mellor wrote: »

Is UB and AP not the same site and/or company?

Both are owned by Tokwiro Enterprises

But Apsolute was on Ipoker... Ultimate Bet has its own engine.

ianmc38 · 10-01-2008 1:08pm

stevire wrote: »

I could be wrong but to me just looks like these guys are venting cause they got outplayed for a good sum of money :rolleyes:

.

Several of the top 1% of online players dont just get pwned for huge amounts of money in very few hands, by a random fish who wins close to a million and then suddenly decides to close his account. Doesn't make any sense.

stevire · 10-01-2008 1:23pm

People decide to move poker sites all the time...

Not sure about closing the account, I'm sure there is a story behind it and it is quite suspicious, but for me doesn't give anything concrete to be branding him as a superuser!?

Samba · 10-01-2008 1:43pm

These hands are interesting...

mrwonkaman posts the small blind of $25.
XXPSAXX posts the big blind of $50.

mrwonkaman: 6d 5c
XXPSAXX: -- --
NioNio: -- --
Red Meat: -- --
PeppeB: -- --

Pre-flop:

NioNio raises to $175. Red Meat calls. PeppeB
folds. mrwonkaman folds. XXPSAXX folds.

Flop (board: Jc 7s 8s):

NioNio checks. Red Meat bets $275. NioNio calls.

Turn (board: Jc 7s 8s Kc):

NioNio checks. Red Meat checks.

River (board: Jc 7s 8s Kc 8h):

NioNio checks. Red Meat bets $975. NioNio calls.

Showdown:

Red Meat shows 9c Ad.
Red Meat has Ad Jc 8s Kc 8h: a pair of eights.
NioNio shows 6s 7c.

no need to valuebet:

wolfdog2121 posts the small blind of $25.
mrwonkaman posts the big blind of $50.

NioNio: -- --
wolfdog2121: -- --
mrwonkaman: -- --
trambopoline: Ah Ad
Johnny_Hustle: -- --
OhioFilmmaker: -- --

Pre-flop:

trambopoline raises to $175. Johnny_Hustle folds.
OhioFilmmaker folds. NioNio calls. wolfdog2121
folds. mrwonkaman folds.

Flop (board: Ts 5h 9d):

trambopoline bets $325. NioNio calls.

Turn (board: Ts 5h 9d 8d):

trambopoline checks. NioNio bets $1075.
trambopoline calls.

River (board: Ts 5h 9d 8d Ac):

trambopoline checks. NioNio checks.

Showdown:

trambopoline shows Ah Ad.
trambopoline has Ah Ad Ts 9d Ac: three aces.
NioNio mucks cards.
(NioNio has 8h 5c.)

meathman 007 · 10-01-2008 2:37pm

ah so that explains it, i know now that the scumbag who took that
5K+ pot of me could see he was going to make a straight flush!

TommyGunne · 10-01-2008 3:07pm

Samba wrote: »

These hands are interesting...

mrwonkaman posts the small blind of $25.
XXPSAXX posts the big blind of $50.

mrwonkaman: 6d 5c
XXPSAXX: -- --
NioNio: -- --
Red Meat: -- --
PeppeB: -- --

Pre-flop:

NioNio raises to $175. Red Meat calls. PeppeB
folds. mrwonkaman folds. XXPSAXX folds.

Flop (board: Jc 7s 8s):

NioNio checks. Red Meat bets $275. NioNio calls.

Turn (board: Jc 7s 8s Kc):

NioNio checks. Red Meat checks.

River (board: Jc 7s 8s Kc 8h):

NioNio checks. Red Meat bets $975. NioNio calls.

Showdown:

Red Meat shows 9c Ad.
Red Meat has Ad Jc 8s Kc 8h: a pair of eights.
NioNio shows 6s 7c.

no need to valuebet:

wolfdog2121 posts the small blind of $25.
mrwonkaman posts the big blind of $50.

NioNio: -- --
wolfdog2121: -- --
mrwonkaman: -- --
trambopoline: Ah Ad
Johnny_Hustle: -- --
OhioFilmmaker: -- --

Pre-flop:

trambopoline raises to $175. Johnny_Hustle folds.
OhioFilmmaker folds. NioNio calls. wolfdog2121
folds. mrwonkaman folds.

Flop (board: Ts 5h 9d):

trambopoline bets $325. NioNio calls.

Turn (board: Ts 5h 9d 8d):

trambopoline checks. NioNio bets $1075.
trambopoline calls.

River (board: Ts 5h 9d 8d Ac):

trambopoline checks. NioNio checks.

Showdown:

trambopoline shows Ah Ad.
trambopoline has Ah Ad Ts 9d Ac: three aces.
NioNio mucks cards.
(NioNio has 8h 5c.)

These hand are interesting from the pov that RedMeat played hand 1 brutally. Villain made a call that I think a lot of boardies could make.

Hand 2 is interesting because villain checks behind where he doesnt get paid off with much worse hands???

These 2 hands are really inconclusive. I think the most conclusive points would be IanMcs post. Also, that someone running these stats, which are extremely exploitable, can beat some sickly good players for sick BB/100. Doesnt happen, bar the heater of all heaters. And I dont think even a heater can be his good at 25/50+

Samba · 10-01-2008 3:19pm

TommyGunne wrote: »

These hand are interesting from the pov that RedMeat played hand 1 brutally. Villain made a call that I think a lot of boardies could make.

Hand 2 is interesting because villain checks behind where he doesnt get paid off with much worse hands???

These 2 hands are really inconclusive. I think the most conclusive points would be IanMcs post. Also, that someone running these stats, which are extremely exploitable, can beat some sickly good players for sick BB/100. Doesnt happen, bar the heater of all heaters. And I dont think even a heater can be his good at 25/50+

All of the hands are inconclusive, as you say only the stats are dubious.

These were the only two hands that came close to being suspicious. I posted them for the benefit of those who did not wish to thrawl through 15 pages.

It does beg a question in hand two, in previous hands he has value betted very thinly on boards where he beats very little.

Macspower · 10-01-2008 5:33pm

It's not really the hands that are dubious.... this guy pwned not some of the top but all of them and crushed the game over a small sample.....

Not only did he withdraw his winnings.... he closed his account.... how many people do that? they just leave it dorment and to me the biggest thing....

He closed the account on the same day the AP scandal brake....

Mr.Plough · 10-01-2008 5:38pm

Mellor wrote: »

Is UB and AP not the same site and/or company?

yeah i assumed UB was rigged months ago

RasTa · 10-01-2008 5:41pm

I've never seen a bb over 35 in a 3k sample, prob the same dude as AP.

Theresalwaysone · 10-01-2008 6:03pm

UB is rigged lets build a bridge.

Sure none of us here are naive enough to think that the online poker system is uncheatable?

gondorff · 10-01-2008 7:21pm

Big difference between 'rigged' and 'hacked'.

Everyone knows that online poker is rigged, but it's very disturbing to know it could be hacked. :eek:

strewelpeter · 10-01-2008 8:47pm

stevire wrote: »

...But Apsolute was on Ipoker.....

Is that true?

MuddyDog · 11-01-2008 2:43am

strewelpeter wrote: »

Is that true?

not sure if thats true but it has its own independent network now, as does UB.

Norwich Fan Rob · 11-01-2008 5:19am

its unlikely to play 60/40 over this many hands at this level and win, let alone win a rediculous amount of bb per hour.
theres clearly something going on.
too many things look suss here.

UB are a complete shambes of a site, with almost no customer support, nightmare to deal with, and im not surprised this has come out at all , especially after the AP thing.
(by the way, AP certainly wasnt on ipoker, unless it was years ago before it got its own shell)

nicnicnic · 11-01-2008 5:31am

Absolute started stand alone then affiliated a few skins, I'm not sure but did they and ultimatebet merge recently.

As for this nionio being a superuser I think the accounts river aggression stats in comparison to aggro on other streets is fairly condemning

RoundTower · 11-01-2008 5:31am

the hands don't make him look like a superuser at all. The stats do make it look that way. But someone should really approximate typical winrate and variance for a guy with those stats and find out how unlikely it is for him to run that hot. If it's 1 in 10^4, I'd write it off as an outlier. If it's 1 in 10^7, I'd be 95% sure there is a superuser or something else rigged.

In fact I haven't seen any statistical analysis like this. With the potripper one there quickly appeared reams of analysis making it clear how unlikely that situation was to have occurred by chance. The fact that no one has posted damning statistical evidence makes it likely that there is nothing to post IMO.

If anything has changed in the last 48 hours or so I might feel differently when I see the new evidence.

Ultimate Bet Also Rigged?

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