Card Index

I've taken club discipline stats from Statbunker
Referee stats from the same site (less weight on this)

Number of cards in the previous leg this season, plus no. of cards in the two matches from last season (less weight given to this).

Some teams are home foulers, others are more likely to accrue cards on the road. I've factored this in as well.

Obviously if it's a local derby, then that comes into it although funnily enough today's derby game Wolves v West Brom only yielded 1 yellow in the same tie earlier this season and none in the game before that.

If I had more time I'd look at individual player stats and make allowance if high card scorers are or are not playing.

THIS WEEK:
TOTAL STAKED: €70.00
TOTAL RETURNED: €112.28
NET PROFIT: €42.28

4 wins out of 6. Was let down on two of my Over 3.5's. Wasn't too far off the mark on either of them but will have to be more careful with these next week.

BET365:
Over 3.5
Sunderland v Arsenal
(Number of Cards in Match)
€10 at 4/6
Actual: 30 points
Result: Lose
Return: €0.00

Over 3.5
Bolton v Wigan
(Number of Cards in Match)
€10 at 8/11
Actual: 50 points
Result: Win
Return: €17.28


PaddyPower:
Over 30 Points @ 4/7
Card Index
Everton v Chelsea
€10 @ 4/7
Actual: 30 points
Result: Lose
Return: €0.00

William Hill:
11 Feb 2012 - Swansea v Norwich - Total Bookings 1
Under 25 @ 19/10
Stake : €10.00
Actual: 20 points
Result: Win
Return: €29.00

12 Feb 2012 - Wolves v West Brom - Total Bookings 2
Under 35 @ 13/10
Stake : €20.00
Actual: 10 points
Result: Win
Return: €46.00

12 Feb 2012 - Aston Villa v Man City - Total Bookings 2
Under 35 @ EVS
Stake : €10.00
Actual: 30 Points
Result: Win
Return: €20.00

Looks decent enough


PaddyPower
Under 80 Points @ 5/6
Card Index
Sevilla v Osasuna
Stake €20

6 out of 8 so far, in profit but I’ve an ominous feeling that it wouldn’t take much to bring about a losing streak. Last two weeks have been very much a learning process so some of this may sound naïve.

At the moment I’m making a judgment call based on (i) a percentage derived from the combined value of the teams’ positions in the discipline table and (ii) number of cards in previous 3 fixtures. Still haven’t figured out how much weight should be attached to the two sides of this. The ideal is where both teams are high offenders and have a history of high cards in previous ties. You add in a referee with a high card per match average and I think you can start betting on >30 or >3.5 (depends on bookie) with some confidence. Same logic can be applied in reverse on low offenders, low carding refs. I think you can get a slight edge by looking at home/away bias i.e. some teams typically accrue more cards at home than they do on the road. The ideal game here for example would be Blackburn at home to Newcastle.

In EPL I’m starting to think your bet is largely confined to the threshold of + or – 30 points and it seems hard to get anything better than just above or below evens in this area. Will look a bit more at La Liga and Serie A. Cards per game are typically much higher, Refs are far more trigger happy. This volatility means a greater range of outcomes and I think it could lend itself to finding value in, for example the Sevilla game tonight, an evens bet of <80 points which would be unheard of in the EPL.

The main difficulty is getting prices for games which pose betting potential. Paddy Power’s system gives most flexibility to find your threshold but they generally only have a card market in televised games. William Hill give Card market in more games but it’s more difficult to find your bet if you’ve a particular figure in mind. Ditto Bet365.

Have requested prices from Paddy Power for two games on Tuesday which I think show potential: Barnsley v Birmingham and Millwall v Middlesborough. Will post here if they reply and I’m going with them.

and

Napoli v Chelsea
Over 40 points @ 4/6
Stake €10

LAST NIGHT:
TOTAL STAKED LAST NIGHT: €40.00
TOTAL RETURNED LAST NIGHT: €45.00
NET PROFIT LAST NIGHT: €5.00

TO DATE:
TOTAL STAKED TO DATE: €150.00
TOTAL RETURNED TO DATE: €232.13
NET PROFIT TO DATE: €82.13

Bets for tomorrow:

BET365: Wigan v Villa – Over 3.5 @ 1.95 – Stake €20

PP: Athletico Madrid v Barcelona – Less than 60 points @ 6/4 – Stake €20

PP: Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid – Less than 70 points @ 8/11 – Stake €20

Am tempted by less than 30 points in Norwich v United but awaiting a price from PP.

Cardex wrote: »

Bets for tomorrow:

BET365: Wigan v Villa – Over 3.5 @ 1.95 – Stake €20

PP: Athletico Madrid v Barcelona – Less than 60 points @ 6/4 – Stake €20

PP: Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid – Less than 70 points @ 8/11 – Stake €20

Am tempted by less than 30 points in Norwich v United but awaiting a price from PP.

Not great this weekend at all. Only 1 out of 3 with Wigan Villa obliging. Pretty annoyed with PP and failure to quote prices. I had two Championship games for <30 in mind and both of them turned out as I'd predicted.

THIS WEEKEND:
TOTAL STAKED THIS WEEKEND: €60.00
TOTAL RETURNED THIS WEEKEND: €39.00
NET PROFIT THIS WEEKEND: (-€21.00)

TO DATE:
TOTAL STAKED TO DATE: €210.00
TOTAL RETURNED TO DATE: €271.13
NET PROFIT TO DATE: €61.13

Cardex wrote: »

This weekend's bets:

BET365:
WIN Tottenham v Man Utd – Under 5.0 @ evens – Stake €35.00 (stake returned if exactly 5.0)

LOSE Liverpool v Arsenal – Over 4.0 @ 1.90 – Stake €10.00 (stake returned if exactly 4.0)

LOSE Blackburn v Aston Villa – Over 4.0 @ 1.875 – Stake €20.00 (stake returned if exactly 4.0)

William Hill:
LOSE 03 Mar 2012 - Liverpool v Arsenal - Red Card In The Match?
Yes @ 15/4
Stake:€6.32
Returns: €30.02

updated

Bets for the weekend;

€20 Under 35 Man Utd v West Brom @ ½ WH
€20 Over 4.0 Middlesbrough v Leeds 1.80 BET365 Asian
€40 Over 4.0 Arsenal v Newcastle 1.975 BET365 Asian
€20 Under 3.5 Swansea v Man City 1.70 BET365 Asian
€10 Under 2.5 Everton v Tottenham 1.95 BET365 Asian
€20 Over 4.0 Wolverhampton v Blackburn 1.80 BET365 Asian

Cardex wrote: »

Bets for the weekend;

€20 Under 35 Man Utd v West Brom @ ½ WH LOSE
€20 Over 4.0 Middlesbrough v Leeds1.80 BET365 Asian STAKE RETURNED (VOIDED FOR SOME REASON )
€40 Over 4.0 Arsenal v Newcastle1.975 BET365 Asian WIN
€20 Under 3.5 Swansea v ManCity1.70 BET365 Asian WIN
€10 Under 2.5 Everton v Tottenham 1.95 BET365 Asian LOSE
€20 Over 4.0 Wolverhampton v Blackburn 1.80 BET365 Asian LOSE

Late update 'cos I was away last 2 weeks

As usual bigger staked bet came in and offset the other losses. Losses €50. Wins €53. Brings overall profits to €63 (I think).

Spread bets produced a small loss and the balance of my promo €120 has been taken away. There may have been some time limit on using it. Am closing this account as the potential for big losses are pretty big when you've no idea what you're doing!

Had a couple of sneaky bets on midweek games from the mobile. 2 from 3 came off for a profit of €40 but won't include them on thread as I didn't post first (ahem).

Bets for this weekend:

All 356

Under5.0 @ 1.925
€40.00 Single Chelsea v Tottenham
(Asian Total Cards)

Over3.0 @ 1.775
€20.00 Single Liverpool v Wigan
(Asian Total Cards)

Under4.0 @ 1.90
€10.00 Single Sunderland v QPR
(Asian Total Cards)

For this weekend, all bet365:

Newcastle v Liverpool
(Asian Total Cards) Under 4.0 - €20 @ 1.75

Wolverhampton v Bolton
(Asian Total Cards) Under 4.5 - €20 @ 1.80

Tottenham v Swansea
(Asian Total Cards) Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.70

Cardex wrote: »

For this weekend, all bet365:

Newcastle v Liverpool
(Asian Total Cards) Under 4.0 - €20 @ 1.75 LOST (Could not have got this more wrong)

Wolverhampton v Bolton
(Asian Total Cards) Under 4.5 - €20 @ 1.80 WON Returns €36

Tottenham v Swansea
(Asian Total Cards) Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.70 WON Returns €68

QPR v Arsenal
(Asian Handicap Cards)
Arsenal 0.0
€20 @ 1.95 LOST (Less said about this the better)

A paltry €4 profit for the weekend. On the bright side, I'm not losing money. And my bigger staked bet came in again.

Cardex wrote: »

Fully conscious that this is an impulse bet so I may come to regret it:

Blackburn v Man Utd LOSE
(Asian Handicap Cards)
Blackburn -0.5
€20 @ 1.95

Brings net profit to date down to €77.

Cardex wrote: »

Card Bets for this weekend, all 365:

Man Utd v QPR
(Asian Total Cards) Under 3.0 - €40 @ 1.875 PUSH

West Brom v Blackburn
(Asian Total Cards) Under 3.0 - €20 @ 1.875 PUSH

Not card related but can't see anything other than a home win:

Arsenal v Man City
(Full Time Result) Arsenal €40 @ 2.40 WIN Returns €96

And a €5 donation to the good people of Bet365:
Liverpool v Aston Villa
(Correct Score) Aston Villa 1-0 €5 @ 19.00 LOSE

Net profit to date €118

Cardex wrote: »

For tomorrow:

QPR v Swansea
(Asian Total Cards) - Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.825 WIN Returns €73

Wigan v Man Utd
(Asian Total Cards) - Under 4.0 - €40 @ 1.825 WIN Returns €73

Net profit to date €184

Cardex wrote: »

For the weekend, all 365:

Arsenal v Wigan
(Asian Total Cards) - Over 3.5 - €40 @ 1.70 WIN Returns €68

West Brom v QPR
(Asian Total Cards) - Under 3.5 - €40 @ 1.90 LOSE

FA CUP:
Liverpool v Everton
(Asian Total Cards) - Under 5.0 - €20 @ 1.925 PUSH

Tottenham v Chelsea
(Card Handicap) - Chelsea 0.0 - €20 @ 2.05 LOSE

Poor weekend, brings net profit to date down to €152

For tonight:

Barcelona v Real Madrid
(Number of Cards in Match) - Over 8.5 - €30 @ 1.66

Barcelona v Real Madrid
(Full Time Result) - Barcelona - €33 @ 1.61

Difficult to see any stand-out card bets this weekend so small stakes:

Wigan v Newcastle
(Asian Handicap Cards) - Wigan 0.0 - €20 @ 1.975

Man City v Man Utd
(Asian Handicap Cards) - Man Utd 0.0 - €20 @ 1.775

Like the look of this double:

Everton v Fulham
(Full Time Result) - Everton AND
West Brom v Aston Villa
(Full Time Result) - West Brom

€30 returns €85.50

Cards for today:

Man Utd v Swansea
(Asian Total Cards) - Under 3.0 - €30 @ 1.90

Blackburn v Wigan
(Asian Total Cards) - Over 4.5 - €20 @ 1.775

Aston Villa v Tottenham
(Asian Total Cards) - Over 3.0 - €30 @ 1.725

QPR v Stoke
(Asian Total Cards) - Under 4.0 - €20 @ 2.025