Why is IMF/ECB running the Irish economy so bad?

Rebelheart · 18-11-2010 10:54pm #1

So, it could be a very naive question but I've yet to hear reasons why IMF/ECB calling the shots will be so bad. Apparently the IMF was also called to sort out Britain's finances in 1976 (although I'm not sure how they compared with our situation).

Yes, there'll be enormous cuts, but now won't Fianna Fáil have an outsider to blame for doing what Fianna Fáil was promising to do to us anyway. What else will be different?

Without being cynical, could Fianna Fáil be so against IMF/ECB involvement because they're afraid that it will be revealed that our economy is much worse than we have thus far thought it is?

Enlighten me, please.

Chuchoter · 18-11-2010 10:57pm

As far as I'm aware, they will kill all our first born sons and take all our cheese.

Other than that I haven't a clue. The IMF aren't looking for votes though, unlike the parties, so they will cut whatever they feel like that maybe politicians wouldn't cut for fear of not getting re-elected.

Buford T Justice · 18-11-2010 10:58pm

For one, we lose the ability to make our own decisions in regards to our financial affairs and what taxes we cut / raise and where we spend our cash and how much we spend.

Monty Burnz · 18-11-2010 11:03pm

It's actually not so bad, but only due to the fact that it will hopefully stop Fianna Failure totally wiping out the state. I'd rather a 5-year old was in charge than the current shower of corrupt gombeen men.

The bad news is that now they are here, they are here for a long time - which means that even if we do elect a government with an positve IQ figure and with better ethics than a Nigerian 419 scammer, they will still only be able to make decisions that fit in with what those who lend us the money will agree with.

So if the new government thinks that we desperately need better treatment for cancer patients, we won't be allowed spend more money on it (without cutting the same from somebody else). The same if the mental health services are collapsing due to huge pressure from the newly redundant. Or if there is a crime spree, we can't give the Gardaí more resources without taking the money from primary schools, or whatever. These are emotive examples, but realistic ones.

So it's better than Fianna Failure running things, but it's a minor disaster for when Fianna Failure get the boot and a proper government takes over.

nesf · 18-11-2010 11:04pm

It isn't that bad really. We *need* to make tough budget decisions over the next couple of years, the IMF will make this politically easier to achieve. It's embarrassing alright but let's face it, we already have screwed the economy up beyond recognition, so it's not like we don't already look bad.

Wolfe Tone · 18-11-2010 11:05pm

I dont like the idea of faceless foreigners making economic decisions for us. You can bet the working man will suffer.

Rebelheart · 18-11-2010 11:08pm

Fingers McGee wrote: »

For one, we lose the ability to make our own decisions in regards to our financial affairs and what taxes we cut / raise and where we spend our cash and how much we spend.

Fair enough but without being flippant very many of those decisions were absolutely dreadful and have us in this awful (?) place today. Maybe the same country which makes Porsche, Mercedes and BMW can make something better out of our economy?

Personally, I would much prefer to pay French/German-style taxes in order to have a French/German-style health system etc (although I accept that service won't be coming any time soon). If they can bring greater efficiencies into the running of this state to the extent that I get those services for higher taxes then I'd be happy. I never took to the Reagan-Thatcherite model which we've been using here for some time. Charlie McCreevy and Mary Harney were never my favourite people.

Koloman · 18-11-2010 11:09pm

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

I dont like the idea of faceless foreigners making economic decisions for us. You can bet the working man will suffer.

I'd rather have a faceless foreigner than a Fianna Failer.

ei.sdraob · 18-11-2010 11:11pm

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

I dont like the idea of faceless foreigners making economic decisions for us. You can bet the working man will suffer.

Don't vote FF/Greens ever again so, and make sure you tell others not to either.

Rebelheart · 18-11-2010 11:12pm

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

You can bet the working man will suffer.

That's true. But does anybody know how the IMF distributed the pain in other countries they went into? Did it attack the ridiculous salaries at the top of the system relatively as hard as it attacked salaries lower down? That's an important question. Anybody?

Wolfe Tone · 18-11-2010 11:13pm

Koloman wrote: »

I'd rather have a faceless foreigner than a Fianna Failer.

I wouldnt actually. Would much prefer FF to be doing it.

Wolfe Tone · 18-11-2010 11:14pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Don't vote FF/Greens ever again so, and make sure you tell others not to either.

Considering I have never voted at all that wont be hard.

Rebelheart · 18-11-2010 11:15pm

Monty Burnz wrote: »

The bad news is that now they are here, they are here for a long time

Anybody have any idea how long the IMF would usually spend in a country directing economic policy? What are the precedents which compare to Ireland's situation?

ei.sdraob · 18-11-2010 11:18pm

Rebelheart wrote: »

Anybody have any idea how long the IMF would usually spend in a country directing economic policy? What are the precedents which compare to Ireland's situation?

See PrimeTime "dramatization" feature on IMF/EU from few days ago

Monty Burnz · 18-11-2010 11:29pm

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

I wouldnt actually. Would much prefer FF to be doing it.

Yeah - vote Fianna Fail! What's the worst that could happen?

Oh yeah.

PeterIanStaker · 18-11-2010 11:30pm

nesf wrote: »

It isn't that bad really. We *need* to make tough budget decisions over the next couple of years, the IMF will make this politically easier to achieve. It's embarrassing alright but let's face it, we already have screwed the economy up beyond recognition, so it's not like we don't already look bad.

A minority - Fianna Fail cowboy gombeen traitors- have screwed the country, not "we". The ordinary person who worked hard (and is now going to get less money), to provide for their family didn't screw it.

(Isn't it ironic that the concept of collective guilt is most associated with Germany).

Permabear · 18-11-2010 11:32pm

This post has been deleted.

Wolfe Tone · 18-11-2010 11:32pm

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Yeah - vote Fianna Fail! What's the worst that could happen?

Oh yeah.

Where did I say that? I would rather people we elected did the deed then some men in suits, thats all.

Monty Burnz · 18-11-2010 11:43pm

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

Where did I say that? I would rather people we elected did the deed then some men in suits, thats all.

Even if the people that 'we' elected (Fianna Failure) have proven that they are corrupt and incompetent?

As I said, in the short term it's probably a good thing because the guys who dug us into this hole have had their shovels confiscated. The bad news is that the people who come in to rebuild our country will not have the use of that shovel anymore because of the stupidity of their predecessors.

charlemont · 18-11-2010 11:54pm

Koloman wrote: »

I'd rather have a faceless foreigner than a Fianna Failer.

I agree, the people here cant be trusted to run an economy, Im sure the foreigners will be shocked when they dig deeper into our books...

nesf · 19-11-2010 12:31am

PeterIanStaker wrote: »

A minority - Fianna Fail cowboy gombeen traitors- have screwed the country, not "we". The ordinary person who worked hard (and is now going to get less money), to provide for their family didn't screw it.

(Isn't it ironic that the concept of collective guilt is most associated with Germany).

It's easy to blame minority groups like FF or the bankers, but when you get down to it was ordinary people fanning the flames, buying up property and demanding politicians increase spending on public services year after year. In the last two sets of elections the parties were all falling over themselves to offer even more spending to the people because that's what the people wanted. Very, very few people were counselling caution.

I think it's fair to say we ****ed up the country as a people, it's just not a popular sentiment.

Dinge · 19-11-2010 12:33am

I think it will be bad for public/civil servants. Forget about the bigger picture of what they're currently paid and their pension that they might get when they retire. On a local human level, finding oneself out of a job at a time when there are hundreds of thousands of others on the dole is nothing to cheer about.

Boskowski · 19-11-2010 12:34am

Fingers McGee wrote: »

For one, we lose the ability to make our own decisions in regards to our financial affairs and what taxes we cut / raise and where we spend our cash and how much we spend.

For two, that is not true

DeVore · 19-11-2010 12:41am

Fingers McGee wrote: »

For one, we lose the ability to make our own decisions in regards to our financial affairs and what taxes we cut / raise and where we spend our cash and how much we spend.

This is almost, but not quite, entirely wrong.

DeV.

Paleface · 19-11-2010 12:41am

Rebelheart wrote: »

Without being cynical, could Fianna Fáil be so against IMF/ECB involvement because they're afraid that it will be revealed that our economy is much worse than we have thus far thought it is?

Enlighten me, please.

FF are against the IMF/ECB coming in because it will ruin their political reputation. They are effectively finished as a political power in this country apart from the people who vote for them on blind faith.

I also think that they feel that given enough time this country can sort all this out itself. The problem with this though is that they've not only ruined everybodies confidence in them here but also abroad and they are no longer a viable government. For the good of the country they should have gone long ago but they chose not to.

The stigma of having to concede our own fate to outsiders is one that will not be easily shifted and they will suffer accordingly.

On the plus side I do think that once the IMF start to restore confidence this country can start to regain its foothold in international markets.

rumour · 19-11-2010 12:44am

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Oh I just saw that. How pious is he....

Correct please if I am wrong but would it be fair to say that he doesn't really support the 3% deficit target by 2014:rolleyes:

I also liked how keen he was to stress that the next governmet will be tied in a striat jacket. Good idea if he's going to be about:pac:

Sea Sharp · 19-11-2010 12:46am

nesf wrote: »

I think it's fair to say we ****ed up the country as a people, it's just not a popular sentiment.

That's very true.
Imagine a political party, during the boom years, promising to make it more difficult for people to get mortgages and promising to maintain or cut public sector wages to 'sustainable' levels.:pac:

The IMF/ECB will force us to balance our budget. It will allow cuts to be made without 'will this move gain or lose us votes in the next election?' coming into the equation.

I'm being optimistic and hoping that they'll tackle public sector inefficiencies head on as opposed to draconian pay-cuts and tax hikes for everybody.

Dinge · 19-11-2010 12:49am

Sea Sharp wrote: »

I'm being optimistic and hoping that they'll tackle public sector inefficiencies head on as opposed to draconian pay-cuts and tax hikes for everybody.

Not a hope. I'm guessing they'll just view people on the payroll as being burdens on the state and fire them regardless of how good they are. It doesn't have to make sense - it just has to look good and look like cuts are being made.

Wolfe Tone · 19-11-2010 12:57am

As a teenager can I sit on a high horse and decry you elder folk for fcuking everything up?

Seriously though it is very depressing that all my expectations, job wise etc, the ideal life that everyone strove for(two cars, holiday home etc) has been exposed as the type of thing which has messed everything up. Even more depressing that the world and country I spent my childhood in is gone forever, it will never be as good as it was, economically. Now I am in a position where I may not be able to afford to complete my education. Or if I do complete my college course I highly doubt I will be able to go on to do what I wanted to do afterwards(I wanted to be a Barrister, gonna be difficult to afford that). So emigration seems likely.

Liam Byrne · 19-11-2010 1:04am

nesf wrote: »

Very, very few people were counselling caution.

Not as "very few" (i.e. zero) as the FF apologists would like us to believe.

nesf wrote: »

I think it's fair to say we ****ed up the country as a people, it's just not a popular sentiment.

I think know it's (unfair) to say that.

rumour · 19-11-2010 1:06am

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

As a teenager can I sit on a high horse and decry you elder folk for fcuking everything up?

Seriously though it is very depressing that all my expectations, job wise etc, the ideal life that everyone strove for(two cars, holiday home etc) has been exposed as the type of thing which has messed everything up. Even more depressing that the world and country I spent my childhood in is gone forever, it will never be as good as it was, economically. Now I am in a position where I may not be able to afford to complete my education. Or if I do complete my college course I highly doubt I will be able to go on to do what I wanted to do afterwards(I wanted to be a Barrister, gonna be difficult to afford that). So emigration seems likely.

Don't worry, go abroad enjoy yourself for a few(10) years. Some time in the future FAS will come looking for you to help out old Ireland. (all on expenses of course). FF will probably be back in power and the good times will start all over again.

Rubik. · 19-11-2010 1:06am

There is the interest that will have to be paid on the bailout, which I assume will be at around 5%. This will not be an insignificant amount.

irishh_bob · 19-11-2010 1:09am

someone sent a text message into vincent browne earlier

who will bail out the IMF when fianna fail are finished with them ???

they can take our freedom but they cant take our wit

RockinRolla · 19-11-2010 1:14am

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

As a teenager can I sit on a high horse and decry you elder folk for fcuking everything up?

Seriously though it is very depressing that all my expectations, job wise etc, the ideal life that everyone strove for(two cars, holiday home etc) has been exposed as the type of thing which has messed everything up. Even more depressing that the world and country I spent my childhood in is gone forever, it will never be as good as it was, economically. Now I am in a position where I may not be able to afford to complete my education. Or if I do complete my college course I highly doubt I will be able to go on to do what I wanted to do afterwards(I wanted to be a Barrister, gonna be difficult to afford that). So emigration seems likely.

Dont worry - Im already gone.

And to think, here I am living the high life.

Irelands a ****hole.

Sand · 19-11-2010 1:20am

The main reason is that the insiders are terrified that Hanz and Pierre wont understand why they need to pay stupidly high wages to get below average performances in the Dail and the public sector.

amacachi · 19-11-2010 1:25am

I'm wishing now that I didn't cheek Dermot Ahern when he came around here before the last election, I probably won't get a chance to next time.

lmaopml · 19-11-2010 1:44am

Rebelheart wrote: »

So, it could be a very naive question but I've yet to hear reasons why IMF/ECB calling the shots will be so bad. Apparently the IMF was also called to sort out Britain's finances in 1976 (although I'm not sure how they compared with our situation).

Yes, there'll be enormous cuts, but now won't Fianna Fáil have an outsider to blame for doing what Fianna Fáil was promising to do to us anyway. What else will be different?

Without being cynical, could Fianna Fáil be so against IMF/ECB involvement because they're afraid that it will be revealed that our economy is much worse than we have thus far thought it is?

Enlighten me, please.

Op, I think no matter what political persuasion one is we would prefer to be able to handle this on our own and not be forced into a corner by anybody, in our 'interests' or no. The EU and IMF are frightening 'foreigners' to some and it's a scary time for some cause they see it as some kind of a loss of sovereignty etc. or are thinking about grave turners of times gone by blah blah blah.

I'm not Eurosceptic, but I am defo Euro realist!

For my part, no matter the awl crap talk fired across the dail at the moment, I do hope that the talks over the next few days are in our 'interest' over the coming years. I believe the Government have nothing more to lose; and no, I don't buy that they are only fighting for survival at this stage, even though they have been blunderous idiots with policy, I don't particularly buy all the 'Galway Tent' populist nonsense either.....Reality bites hard, and it's a great motivator...

I'm glad it's Lenihan talking tbh, the best of a rather archaic system of nepotism and cronyism; on either side of the dail, that has spoiled real change with the tide of politics in this country for a very long time.

I think the least we could do is wish them well at the moment and not go all populace who's to blame cept me nonsense..

Join a political party with a new and vigorous agenda or else don't blame people being cynical over 'opposition' politics - it's simply not believable, and it's far too late.

RichardAnd · 19-11-2010 2:27am

rumour wrote: »

Don't worry, go abroad enjoy yourself for a few(10) years. Some time in the future FAS will come looking for you to help out old Ireland. (all on expenses of course). FF will probably be back in power and the good times will start all over again.

Very likely. An celtic tiger take two will most likely be followed by another recession. Personally, I think that in 20 years time we'll all be back here wondering why nothing was learned from the last recession. Oh well, that's Ireland

TheRealPONeil · 19-11-2010 2:50am

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

So we have disproportionate hysterical reporting when the minister for finance is
1 - lying about the true situation or
2 - doesn't really have a clue what's going on

and all the other front bench nodding heads are falling into line !!

nesf · 19-11-2010 3:35am

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Not as "very few" (i.e. zero) as the FF apologists would like us to believe.

I think know it's (unfair) to say that.

Meh, if you want to dismiss it as the mere FF apologist propoganda go ahead, but I remember an Ireland completely obsessed with property and the insane amount of lobbying and demands for the abolishment of Stamp Duty and similar.

jimmycrackcorm · 19-11-2010 3:44am

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

As a teenager can I sit on a high horse and decry you elder folk for fcuking everything up?

Seriously though it is very depressing that all my expectations, job wise etc, the ideal life that everyone strove for(two cars, holiday home etc) has been exposed as the type of thing which has messed everything up. Even more depressing that the world and country I spent my childhood in is gone forever, it will never be as good as it was, economically. Now I am in a position where I may not be able to afford to complete my education. Or if I do complete my college course I highly doubt I will be able to go on to do what I wanted to do afterwards(I wanted to be a Barrister, gonna be difficult to afford that). So emigration seems likely.

If you can afford to sit on a high horse then I guess Daddy still owns a Range Rover.
Assuming you are a teenager then you are still at school; you'd be much better directed to asking your teachers why our deficit is so large because they and others like them screwed us by demanding higher pay than their EU compatriots.

Her's some homework research: http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/04/20/tackling-the-thorny-issue-of-teachers-pay/

Teachers musn't be teaching gravity these days as it only applies in the private sector and FYI when I was your age we all assumed we'd be emigrating, so we didn't whinge about it.

While you're complaining about not being able to afford further education, try comparing dropout statistics for our third level educational institutions with comparable institutions in the U.S. where large fees are the norm. You'll be surprised.

Liam Byrne · 19-11-2010 8:06am

nesf wrote: »

Meh, if you want to dismiss it as the mere FF apologist propoganda go ahead

Thank you for giving me permission to state facts and tell it like it is :rolleyes:

TheUsual · 19-11-2010 8:14am

DOH !

More IMF rubbisah.
IMF will not take over Ireland ... ever (because of European Central Bank). Thank you.

ECB will never take over Ireland because we are paying our bills and have not asked for help - ignoring "journalists" who think that a Google search is like going to the library. Irish journalists are the laziest in the World.

rumour · 19-11-2010 11:15am

RichardAnd wrote: »

Very likely. An celtic tiger take two will most likely be followed by another recession. Personally, I think that in 20 years time we'll all be back here wondering why nothing was learned from the last recession. Oh well, that's Ireland

Look on the positive side. Planning is made so much easier(certainty provides sound possibilities).....no venturing into the unknown for Ireland:rolleyes:

Duckytech · 20-11-2010 12:52am

Monty Burnz wrote: »

It's actually not so bad, but only due to the fact that it will hopefully stop Fianna Failure totally wiping out the state. I'd rather a 5-year old was in charge than the current shower of corrupt gombeen men.

So it's better than Fianna Failure running things, but it's a minor disaster for when Fianna Failure get the boot and a proper government takes over.

The way i picture it is........

Greedy Independants, Overpaid civil servants, incompetent Td's and gluttonous Union leaders are the grass...

and the IMF

.......are the lawnmover.

The long dead grass is gone (along with the dogsh@t) and your left with lovely fresh new grass...and a large petrol bill. :P

nommm · 20-11-2010 1:41am

I have a question as I don't have a clue about economics etc.

I was reading an article on the Guardian website about all of this and they said that this could possibly lead to even more unemployment as the main aim is to make our economy smaller. Is this true? How will this benefit the country?

TheRealPONeil · 20-11-2010 2:57pm

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

<waffle>... you'd be much better directed to asking your teachers why our deficit is so large because they and others like them screwed us by demanding higher pay than their EU compatriots.</waffle>

James you'd be better off paying attention to people who actually work in the financial industry instead of ranting off against a poor student. The real cause of your higher taxes and lower services is

" ... the bank guarantee in 2008 this is seen as public not private debt"

P.O'Neill.

Why is IMF/ECB running the Irish economy so bad?

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