Sussex Stakes

Morgans · 07-08-2012 9:48am

There will be people in 20 years time looking back on Camelot - especially if he wins the St. Leger as a true great of the sport. Facts are that he won a very average guineas and a poor Derby. He may not need to have been anything other than an average gp1 3yo winner.

I think he is a bit better than we have seen so far, but on what he has done on the track.

shergar got a timeform rating of 140.

Gringo180 · 07-08-2012 10:55am

Morgans wrote: »

Gringo180 wrote: »

TThe Iron horse or The Rock!!! Definately an inflated rating to favour Frankel.

THE IRON HORSE and THE ROCK.

Racing post headline hype.

Surprised that you being so clever not buying into the Frankel nonsense seem to embrace the hype around those admirable but in no way extraordinary horses.

I would say Giants Causeway would be an extraordinary horse, a mulitple group 1 winner from a mile to 10f and extremely unlucky not to add a breeders cup classic to his cv, in my eyes hes done more than Frankel has done in terms of tackling much better opposition and over a trip they werent sure he would get.

Until Henry Cecil takes the cotton wool off this horse and ups him in distance and wins as easily in the likes of an arc or breeders cup classic then he shouldnt even be mentioned nowhere near the likes of Brigadier Gerard or Dancing Brave etc.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 11:11am

Gringo180 wrote: »

I would say Giants Causeway would be an extraordinary horse, a mulitple group 1 winner from a mile to 10f and extremely unlucky not to add a breeders cup classic to his cv, in my eyes hes done more than Frankel has done in terms of tackling much better opposition and over a trip they werent sure he would get.

Until Henry Cecil takes the cotton wool off this horse and ups him in distance and wins as easily in the likes of an arc or breeders cup classic then he shouldnt even be mentioned nowhere near the likes of Brigadier Gerard or Dancing Brave etc.

Again, funny how Frankel is being talked about being wrapped up in cotton wool when he is running as a 4 year old. Giants Causeway on the other hand....Dancing Brave.... Let's also forget that Brigidier Gerard only ran one race away from a mile as a 3 year old.

So if Frankel wins the Juddmonte - which has been the scheduled step up in distance since April, he will be a multiple group winner at a mile and 10f. Will that make him as good as Giants Causeway? Is Camelot better cos he is a multiple group winner over a mile and 12f?

Lets forget about Bachir beating Giants Causeway in the irish guineas. Superstar horse Bachir. Lets forget about beating Valentino a hd in the St. James palace. If Giants Causeway is a superstar, then Valentino is. Lets forget that he was beaten by Observatory. Another superstar. He outbattled Kalanisi in two great finishes, but they were not great performances.

Wonder if Henry Cecil had the choice between Shibboleth (1.5l behind Giants Causeway in the James Palace) Shiva (2.5l behind Giants Causeway giving him 8lb in the eclipe) and Frankel, which won would he choose as his best?

Yeah, Frankel's all hype. IRON HORSE and THE ROCK FTW.

ArmaniJeanss · 07-08-2012 11:48am

Morgans wrote: »

Again, funny how Frankel is being talked about being wrapped up in cotton wool when he is running as a 4 year old. Giants Causeway on the other hand..............

Sea The Stars another example of this - four wins in all-aged company and hurried off to stud. No coming back as a 4yold and trying to give weight-for-age away to the next generation. Understandable at one level though I wonder whether the Tsui's will regret it when they realise they'll never have another one like him.

I genuinely think that the incredible sportsmanship of PKA in keeping Frankel racing as a 4yo won't be appreciated for a few years - when people are reminded by future events that horses who win Classics by 5+ lengths and get 135 ratings rarely stay in training.
Hopefully by that stage the debate about his campaign (e.g., not going for the Arc via the July Cup) will be forgotten and we can just remember his greatness.

****
Excelebration rating debate is quite interesting, without Frankel he'd potentially be an 8 times G1 winner now and people would probably be saying his rating is a pound or two too low

Gringo180 · 07-08-2012 12:29pm

Morgans wrote: »

Again, funny how Frankel is being talked about being wrapped up in cotton wool when he is running as a 4 year old. Giants Causeway on the other hand....Dancing Brave.... Let's also forget that Brigidier Gerard only ran one race away from a mile as a 3 year old.

So if Frankel wins the Juddmonte - which has been the scheduled step up in distance since April, he will be a multiple group winner at a mile and 10f. Will that make him as good as Giants Causeway? Is Camelot better cos he is a multiple group winner over a mile and 12f?

Lets forget about Bachir beating Giants Causeway in the irish guineas. Superstar horse Bachir. Lets forget about beating Valentino a hd in the St. James palace. If Giants Causeway is a superstar, then Valentino is. Lets forget that he was beaten by Observatory. Another superstar. He outbattled Kalanisi in two great finishes, but they were not great performances.

Wonder if Henry Cecil had the choice between Shibboleth (1.5l behind Giants Causeway in the James Palace) Shiva (2.5l behind Giants Causeway giving him 8lb in the eclipe) and Frankel, which won would he choose as his best?

Yeah, Frankel's all hype. IRON HORSE and THE ROCK FTW.

Of course Henry Cecil would choose Frankel over those 2 horses it would be silly to suggest otherwise, I am not doubting Frankels ability all I am saying is he is on an inflated rating and people coming out saying he is the greatest of all time is ridiculous considering what he has beat.

Do you honestly think Frankel is 12lbs or whatever it is superior to Giants Causeway, who has beaten the likes of Sakhee, Kalanisi, Fantastic Light, Captain Steve (14 Group 1 wins between them including a Arc, Dubai World Cup, 2 Breeders Cup Turf & Japan Cup)

Morgans · 07-08-2012 12:38pm

Who is saying that he is that good? Over a mile 12lb equals 24l.

I think he woudl beat Giants Causeway by upwards of 10l over a mile if he was trying. 12l would be a fair assumption.

Over ten furlongs, we'll see how effective Frankel is in the Juddmonte. I bet if he wins Nathaniel and St. Nicholas Abbey will be seen as sub par group 1 horses. I'd guess think Frankel would win by 8l.

I think he could win the arc if he went for it. I also dont think he should go for it. I dont see the obsession with stepping up in distance. If he stepped back and won the Haydock Sprint by 5l, it would be more astonishing

swimming in a sea · 07-08-2012 1:03pm

Morgans wrote: »

Who is saying that he is that good? Over a mile 12lb equals 24l.

I think he woudl beat Giants Causeway by upwards of 10l over a mile if he was trying. 12l would be a fair assumption.

Over ten furlongs, we'll see how effective Frankel is in the Juddmonte. I bet if he wins Nathaniel and St. Nicholas Abbey will be seen as sub par group 1 horses. I'd guess think Frankel would win by 8l.

I think he could win the arc if he went for it. I also dont think he should go for it. I dont see the obsession with stepping up in distance. If he stepped back and won the Haydock Sprint by 5l, it would be more astonishing

European Trainers only see sprints as a last resort for a failed miler, look at strong suit this year only now they seem to have accepted he is a sprinter.
Last year in an interview with Henry Cecil someone mentioned Frankel going for the july cup and he looked at them like they had a screw loose.
Same thing from Aidan O'Brian he loves to talk about how his top horses have enough speed to win a july cup but never enters them in it.

But I agree with what you said, much more pleasing to me for him to drop down to 5f\6f race as that shows speed, as for 10f\12f not much contest there as its pretty simple if he stays he'll win. If he doesn't stay 10f\12f it doesn't make him any less a great horse, otherwise he should win everything from 5f to the cross country race at Cheltenham.:)

Morgans · 07-08-2012 1:12pm

You know what is funny as well. Frankel is moving up to 1m2f as a 4yo yet his trainer is accused of keeping him in cotton wool. Unlike giants Causeway or Rock of Gibraltar.

When is Rock of Gibraltar not crabbed for not stepping up/down in distance? Or continuing on as a 4yo?

Gringo180 · 07-08-2012 1:45pm

Morgans wrote: »

You know what is funny as well. Frankel is moving up to 1m2f as a 4yo yet his trainer is accused of keeping him in cotton wool. Unlike giants Causeway or Rock of Gibraltar.

When is Rock of Gibraltar not crabbed for not stepping up/down in distance? Or continuing on as a 4yo?

There is bigger races they can take on with Frankel outside of the UK, the likes of The Arc and The Breeders Cup Classic but they wont as he will be out of his comfort zone.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 1:53pm

Why should they?

Name the last champion miler to go for/win the Arc? Why didnt THE ROCK go the Arc? Is he diminished because of it?

I wouldnt be so foolish to make such a claim, yet you seem to doing so.

To satisfy some internet poster who doesnt appreciate what he is seeing. Is that the only reason.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 2:02pm

Why didnt champion milers like Goldikova, Canford Cliffs, Zilzal, Selkirk, Mark of Esteem go for the Arc? Even Dubai Millenium, or Rock of Gibraltar.

Clearly inferior animals for not doing so. 1m4f in October often in soft/heavy ground and Frankel needs to do this for YOU to consider him equal??? to Giants Causeway or Rock of Gibraltar? Is that it?

Gringo180 · 07-08-2012 2:21pm

Morgans wrote: »

Why didnt champion milers like Goldikova, Canford Cliffs, Zilzal, Selkirk, Mark of Esteem go for the Arc? Even Dubai Millenium, or Rock of Gibraltar.

Clearly inferior animals for not doing so. 1m4f in October often in soft/heavy ground and Frankel needs to do this for YOU to consider him equal??? to Giants Causeway or Rock of Gibraltar? Is that it?

Your totally missing the point I am making, none of these horses you have mentioned above have been classed as the GOAT by the media, all I am saying is that you cant class Frankel as the GOAT by judging what he has done over a mile! Should he win the Juddmonte, why would they not send him to the Breeders Cup? Its only going to enhance his reputation further should he win that too?

I just feel for the horses sake they do go to Paris or America because I feel Frankel has a lot more to give!

Morgans · 07-08-2012 2:26pm

You do realise the GOAT is subjective and that when people are saying that Frankel is the GOAT (jesus the hype again) they are saying that he is putting up the best performances of all time using an objective basis that works across all distances. His performances at a mile are better than the best performances ever produced by specalists 6f horses at 6f, by specialist 12f horses at 12f.

That he is repeating the performances shows that its not remotely a fluke. You dont believe this is valid until he does it at 12f.

You think THE ROCK's reputation was diminished by not going for the Arc?

Or by ever racing over a mile.

tryfix · 07-08-2012 4:06pm

Excelebration ran 5 times in GP 1 company.

The first time he ran in a GP 1 he was rated 116 he finished behind Frankel and Zoffany beaten a length and a half by the 115 rated Zoffany who was raised to 118.

The second time he won in France beating Rio De La Plata (a 120 rated horse on the downside of his career) by 1 1/2L which would put him on 123, a line through (Dubawi Gold rated 117) 3L back in 4th confirms the 123 rating.

His other three runs in GP1 company are complicated by Frankel's destruction of the opposition, with varying lines of form it's possible to take negative or positive slants on them.

There's some strange collateral form, take Windsor Palace 106 given an average 16lb beating by Famous Name 115 when running on his own merits. Logically that puts Famous Name on 122 which he won't be because he's not a 122 horse. If you take 115 minus 16 you get 99, the exact rating he recieved for being beaten 14lb into 4th by Excelebration at the start of the season.

He's been running behind Frankel and Excelebration, if he's a 99 horse then Frankel is a 130 horse because Frankel on his best form beat him by 15 1/2L when Windsor Palace ran a fair enough race behind him in the Queen Anne. Excelebration at his best ran 8 to 10lb inferior horse to Frankel, which brings him back to 120 or 122 slightly below the 123 rating he ran to in France.

Excelebration after running to 123 in France ran Frankel to 4l or an 8lb beating, meaning Frankel ran to 131. There's a case for rating Frankel on 135 based on his 3yo beating of Rio De La Plata in a 4 horse race.

Where's the justification for rating Frankel at 140 for his Queen Anne win, to do so means rating Windsor Palace at 109 and by extension Famous Name at 125.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 4:17pm

Seriously google.

I put in BHA rating of Frankel and second result was

http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/bha-frankel-still-below-brave

That was before they raised him to 140.

You have missed Excelebrations two best performances. Beating Immortal Verse in the QEII - maybe cos it doesnt suit your argument - and at Newbury. Your arguement isnt with me, its with the ratings. Why do you think that you should only concern yourself with group 1 company?

The ratings have proven far more accurate than me, or you, or any other internet poster here for the last four decades.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 4:38pm

Also, Windsor palace's form with Famous Name was not over a mile. So, Windsor Palace being rated 108 in the Queen Anne (over a mile) does not change Famous Name's rating to a 125 horse.

If you are arguing against the ratings, you need to do so from a position of expertise.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 4:48pm

And whatever you do, dont mention the formline of the Lockinge where Windsor Palace didnt act as a pacemaker. And what it means for the form of Excelebration and Frankel.

tryfix · 07-08-2012 5:02pm

You are missing the point, in the race where immortal verse finished third to Frankel she ran to 115. She finished 4 1/2L or 9lb ahead of Bullet Train 106 who finished 12L or 24lb behind Frankel, himself putting Frankel on 130 for the race which equates to an approximate 4l beating of a 123 rated Excelebration which is what Excelebration ran to in France.

Bullet Train's rating has been creeping up to 111 this year, a rating he kept despite finishing behind Windsor Palace 106 and Indomito 108 in the Queen Anne. There's a bit of rating inflation going on.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 5:07pm

Im not missing the point. You are arguing with the ratings. Not me.

You do realise that Bullet Train is a pacemaker? And that even if he is 111 rated horse, that it doesnt mean he runs to 111 every time he steps on a racecourse. And that running behind a 106 and 108 rated horses means that his rating should be dropped. These are fundamentals.

I think a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and while you have every right to be skeptical of the ratings, not knowing that is 1lb per length 24 hours ago, it is quite presumptious of you to believe you have found mistaken arithmetic in how the ratings are calculated.

Are you presuming that the raters just have got their sums wrong?

tryfix · 07-08-2012 5:21pm

Morgans wrote: »

Im not missing the point. You are arguing with the ratings. Not me.

You do realise that Bullet Train is a pacemaker? And that even if he is 111 rated horse, that it doesnt mean he runs to 111 every time he steps on a racecourse. And that running behind a 106 and 108 rated horses means that his rating should be dropped. These are fundamentals.

I think a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and while you have every right to be skeptical of the ratings, not knowing that is 1lb per length 24 hours ago, it is quite presumptious of you to believe you have found mistaken arithmetic in how the ratings are calculated.

Are you presuming that the raters just have got their sums wrong?

Point taken about the 1lb per length, it was a lazy google

, I've been a follower of GP1 racing for donkeys years, worrying about the handicap system doesn't occupy much of my time.

None of that takes away from the natural desire amongst the racing fraternity to build up a superstar like Frankels rating and by extension there's a bit of rating inflation passed down the line.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 7:06pm

There have been plenty of chances to give in to the media hype in the past decade, especially when there is a huge battle for breeding domination. Horses like Giants Causeway, Rock of Gibraltar, and lately So You Think have gained huge press without ever posting an outstanding rating. Galileo also, Camelot this year. Horses like Peintre Celebre, Hellissio, Harbinger have got huge ratings without the hype. Rating inflation can happen over a few years - Im beginning to wonder if Kauto Star and Denman are both overrated for the last few years - but the reason why Frankel has the rating he has done is for his domination on the track. And giving horses conservatively rated in the mid 120s hammerings. His average winning distance in group 1s is 5l.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 8:40pm

BHA and the Queen Anne

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/viewarchive.asp?item=004576

tryfix · 07-08-2012 9:33pm

Morgans wrote: »

There have been plenty of chances to give in to the media hype in the past decade, especially when there is a huge battle for breeding domination. Horses like Giants Causeway, Rock of Gibraltar, and lately So You Think have gained huge press without ever posting an outstanding rating. Galileo also, Camelot this year. Horses like Peintre Celebre, Hellissio, Harbinger have got huge ratings without the hype. Rating inflation can happen over a few years - Im beginning to wonder if Kauto Star and Denman are both overrated for the last few years - but the reason why Frankel has the rating he has done is for his domination on the track. And giving horses conservatively rated in the mid 120s hammerings. His average winning distance in group 1s is 5l.

There's a whole load of variables to be considered. Homecoming Queen appeared to run to a mark of 136 ( OR 120 ) in the 1,000 Guineas if you took Maybe 116 and 10l back in third into account, but she didn't run to 136, she ran to 116 based on Starscope 98 beaten 9L in second. Starscope has only run to a hundred since so she's a solid enough base to rate what looked to be a really difficult race to judge.

What makes Frankel so impressive is that he does it almost every time and it looks like there's more in the locker. He appears to be getting better all the time, which is amazing considering how good he was at two and three. He's the best miler I've seen since Zilzal. The problem in rating him is that there's a lack of miler competition and a lack of an outstanding 3yo miler to test him. The biggest compliment to him is that everything is running scared of him. He probably is a 140+ horse but unless a top 10f horse like Cirrus Des Aigles rated in the high 120s takes him on at 10f before the end of the year there's little hope of confirming it. In years gone by you'd expect championship class horses like Frankel and Camelot to meet in a race like the Irish Champion Stakes.

Peintre Celebre, Hellissio, and Harbinger were all lightly campaigned horses, which is a huge help when you're trying to win championship races. Aidan O' Brien normally run his top 3 yo horses into the ground by the time the Arc comes along, so if Camelot turns up in it this year, he'll have a much better chance than any of his previous three year old runners.

I'm not much of a one for the Jumpers anymore but Kauto Star was the real deal, the best NH horse I've seen, better than Desert Orchid and Carvills Hill. Denman never impressed me too much.

Morgans · 07-08-2012 9:56pm

tryfix wrote: »

There's a whole load of variables to be considered. Homecoming Queen appeared to run to a mark of 136 ( OR 120 ) in the 1,000 Guineas if you took Maybe 116 and 10l back in third into account, but she didn't run to 136, she ran to 116 based on Starscope 98 beaten 9L in second. Starscope has only run to a hundred since so she's a solid enough base to rate what looked to be a really difficult race to judge.

What makes Frankel so impressive is that he does it almost every time and it looks like there's more in the locker. He appears to be getting better all the time, which is amazing considering how good he was at two and three. He's the best miler I've seen since Zilzal. The problem in rating him is that there's a lack of miler competition and a lack of an outstanding 3yo miler to test him. The biggest compliment to him is that everything is running scared of him. He probably is a 140+ horse but unless a top 10f horse like Cirrus Des Aigles rated in the high 120s takes him on at 10f before the end of the year there's little hope of confirming it. In years gone by you'd expect championship class horses like Frankel and Camelot to meet in a race like the Irish Champion Stakes.

Peintre Celebre, Hellissio, and Harbinger were all lightly campaigned horses, which is a huge help when you're trying to win championship races. Aidan O' Brien normally run his top 3 yo horses into the ground by the time the Arc comes along, so if Camelot turns up in it this year, he'll have a much better chance than any of his previous three year old runners.

I'm not much of a one for the Jumpers anymore but Kauto Star was the real deal, the best NH horse I've seen, better than Desert Orchid and Carvills Hill. Denman never impressed me too much.

So, you are saying that if they rated it through Maybe, they would have been wrong, and eventhough they didnt, you are saying that the system is wrong? They didnt use Maybe as the form didnt stack up, if Maybe ran to 110, then other horses would have been jacked up.

Timeform dont use the anchor method to rate races, its all in the links that have been sent. Its one of the reasons why there is a larger divergence between Official ratings and Timeform these days.

ArmaniJeanss · 07-08-2012 10:32pm

It will actually be good to see Excelebration in a couple of G1s Mile races this year and presumably next year* without the presence of Frankel, will definitely give us something to support whether above average champion 135 or a megastar 140 is closer to Frankels mark.

I think the 'he must run in the Arc / Breeders Cup' gang are fairly lol btw, but the 'he is potentially overrated' gang do at least have a well put together and plausible case.

* I assume they would have campaigned him different if they intended retiring him soon

tryfix · 07-08-2012 11:50pm

Morgans wrote: »

So, you are saying that if they rated it through Maybe, they would have been wrong, and eventhough they didnt, you are saying that the system is wrong? They didnt use Maybe as the form didnt stack up, if Maybe ran to 110, then other horses would have been jacked up.

Timeform dont use the anchor method to rate races, its all in the links that have been sent. Its one of the reasons why there is a larger divergence between Official ratings and Timeform these days.

I won't argue with Timeform, they've their own complex methodology but it's not infallible.

What I was showing with Homecoming Queen is that using the runner who has run reasonably close to their proper level of performance is a very good indicator of how to rate the horse. The 120 OR for Homecomings Queens win looks too high and based on Starscopes subsequent form, the 116 based on what Homecoming Queen actually achieved looks more realistic. Timeform have Homecoming Queen on 120, with their slightly higher ratings the OR looks like it should be closer to the 116 mark that the reliable anchor gave.

To get Frankel to 140, the BHA had to bump up Indomito by 4lb. Subsequent events in Germany have not shown any reason to think that Indomito was 4lb too low in the ratings.

Bumping up horses in a race where the winner was 11l clear of the field seems to be a suspect way of going about rating horses. Side Glance raised 1lb, Indomito raised 4lb, Windsor Palace raised 2lb.

Side glance 113 raised to 114 beaten by 23lb gives Frankel 136 or 137.

Indomito 108 raised to 112 beaten by 25lb gives Frankel 133 or 137.

Windsor Palace 104 raised to 106 beaten by 31lb gives Frankel 135 or 137.

Frankel was given a rating of 140 after the race.

In the Lockinge Frankel gave Excelebration 126 dropped to 125 a 10lb beating giving Frankel a rating of 136 or 135. Dubawi Gold 117 was beaten 18lb in the race giving Frankel a rating of 135.

Frankel was give an OR of 138 after that race.

He's running to 135 on the button if you strip out the dodgy jump in ratings for Windsor Palace and Indomito.

Overthelast · 08-08-2012 12:48am

tryfix wrote: »

Morgans wrote: »

There have been plenty of chances to give in to the media hype in the past decade, especially when there is a huge battle for breeding domination. Horses like Giants Causeway, Rock of Gibraltar, and lately So You Think have gained huge press without ever posting an outstanding rating. Galileo also, Camelot this year. Horses like Peintre Celebre, Hellissio, Harbinger have got huge ratings without the hype. Rating inflation can happen over a few years - Im beginning to wonder if Kauto Star and Denman are both overrated for the last few years - but the reason why Frankel has the rating he has done is for his domination on the track. And giving horses conservatively rated in the mid 120s hammerings. His average winning distance in group 1s is 5l.

There's a whole load of variables to be considered. Homecoming Queen appeared to run to a mark of 136 ( OR 120 ) in the 1,000 Guineas if you took Maybe 116 and 10l back in third into account, but she didn't run to 136, she ran to 116 based on Starscope 98 beaten 9L in second. Starscope has only run to a hundred since so she's a solid enough base to rate what looked to be a really difficult race to judge.

What makes Frankel so impressive is that he does it almost every time and it looks like there's more in the locker. He appears to be getting better all the time, which is amazing considering how good he was at two and three. He's the best miler I've seen since Zilzal. The problem in rating him is that there's a lack of miler competition and a lack of an outstanding 3yo miler to test him. The biggest compliment to him is that everything is running scared of him. He probably is a 140+ horse but unless a top 10f horse like Cirrus Des Aigles rated in the high 120s takes him on at 10f before the end of the year there's little hope of confirming it. In years gone by you'd expect championship class horses like Frankel and Camelot to meet in a race like the Irish Champion Stakes.

Peintre Celebre, Hellissio, and Harbinger were all lightly campaigned horses, which is a huge help when you're trying to win championship races. Aidan O' Brien normally run his top 3 yo horses into the ground by the time the Arc comes along, so if Camelot turns up in it this year, he'll have a much better chance than any of his previous three year old runners.

I'm not much of a one for the Jumpers anymore but Kauto Star was the real deal, the best NH horse I've seen, better than Desert Orchid and Carvills Hill. Denman never impressed me too much.

This debate has been worthwhile. I consider myself fortunate enough to see kauto star, denman and sea the stars in the flesh. That's why I travelled to the uk last week to see HIM in the flesh. I have never seen a beast like HIM. Best of luck with the ratings debate. While I respect your analysis, I'm not sure we'll arrive at a consensus anytime soon. Why don't we just agree that we are witnessing one of the best thoroughbred horses to grace the turf- long may he stay fit and healthy so we can enjoy him do what he loves best, and that is to race.

Morgans · 08-08-2012 12:52am

tryfix wrote: »

I won't argue with Timeform, they've their own complex methodology but it's not infallible.

What I was showing with Homecoming Queen is that using the runner who has run reasonably close to their proper level of performance is a very good indicator of how to rate the horse. The 120 OR for Homecomings Queens win looks too high and based on Starscopes subsequent form, the 116 based on what Homecoming Queen actually achieved looks more realistic. Timeform have Homecoming Queen on 120, with their slightly higher ratings the OR looks like it should be closer to the 116 mark that the reliable anchor gave.

To get Frankel to 140, the BHA had to bump up Indomito by 4lb. Subsequent events in Germany have not shown any reason to think that Indomito was 4lb too low in the ratings.

Bumping up horses in a race where the winner was 11l clear of the field seems to be a suspect way of going about rating horses. Side Glance raised 1lb, Indomito raised 4lb, Windsor Palace raised 2lb.

Side glance 113 raised to 114 beaten by 23lb gives Frankel 134 or 135.

Indomito 108 raised to 112 beaten by 25lb gives Frankel 133 or 137.

Windsor Palace 104 raised to 106 beaten by 31lb gives Frankel 135 or 137.

Frankel was given a rating of 140 after the race.

In the Lockinge Frankel gave Excelebration 126 dropped to 125 a 10lb beating giving Frankel a rating of 136 or 135. Dubawi Gold 117 was beaten 18lb in the race giving Frankel a rating of 135.

Frankel was give an OR of 138 after that race.

He's running to 135 on the button if you strip out the dodgy jump in ratings for Windsor Palace and Indomito.

You do know that if the race was run 30 mins later, Frankel would have won by 12l and not 11l. Just something to throw into the mix. As I said, email the BHA or Timeform. I'm sure they will supply you with the clarification you need.

tryfix · 08-08-2012 1:03am

I'll sign off the debate over Frankels rating with a look at Sea The Stars best race. Just to give a bit of perspective on the ratings. Sea The Stars OR 133 going into the Irish Champion Stakes.

Beat Fame and Glory 126 raised to 129 by 4.375lb giving him a rating of 130/131 or 133/134.

Beat Master Craftsman 127 by 8.75lb giving him a rating of 135/6.

Beat Grand Ducal 107 raised to 110 24.5lb giving him a rating of 131/2 or 134/135.

Beat Lord Admiral 108 by 31.5lb giving him a rating of 139/140.

Sea The Stars was given an OR rating of 136 for the race, Frankel shades it but it'd be a close enough race between them.

Gringo180 · 08-08-2012 10:22pm

tryfix wrote: »

I'll sign off the debate over Frankels rating with a look at Sea The Stars best race. Just to give a bit of perspective on the ratings. Sea The Stars OR 133 going into the Irish Champion Stakes.

Beat Fame and Glory 126 raised to 129 by 4.375lb giving him a rating of 130/131 or 133/134.

Beat Master Craftsman 127 by 8.75lb giving him a rating of 135/6.

Beat Grand Ducal 107 raised to 110 24.5lb giving him a rating of 131/2 or 134/135.

Beat Lord Admiral 108 by 31.5lb giving him a rating of 139/140.

Sea The Stars was given an OR rating of 136 for the race, Frankel shades it but it'd be a close enough race between them.

Would Hawk Wings Lockinge demolition job be rated higher than Frankels Queen Anne win, I seem to remember he had Domedriver (who had just won the breeders cup mile the year before) about 15 lenghts back in 3rd??

tryfix · 09-08-2012 1:11am

Gringo180 wrote: »

Would Hawk Wings Lockinge demolition job be rated higher than Frankels Queen Anne win, I seem to remember he had Domedriver (who had just won the breeders cup mile the year before) about 15 lenghts back in 3rd??

Well he theoretically ran to at least 144/145 but didn't get that rating for winning it, he had an end of season rating OR of 134 ( wikipedia ) although the racing post says OR 137.

In The Lockinge.

He beat 2nd Where Or When 123 by 11l or 22lb giving a rating of 145.

He beat 3rd Olden Times 116 by 19l or 38lb giving a rating of 144.

He beat 4th Domedriver 119 by 20l or 40lb giving a rating of 159.

He beat 5th Reel Buddy 114 by 20 3/4l or 41 1/2lb giving a rating of 146.

Mad stuff, but if you take the two horses Olden times and Reel Buddy they ran to form with each other. Maybe he ran a one off freak race of 144, but because he couldn't repeat the task it couldn't be taken seriously.

He was a strange horse, take his Derby second to High Chaparral, a very underrated race IMO.

High Chaparral was given an OR of 126 for beating him 2l.

Third placed Moon Ballad 115 was beaten 14l or 21lb giving a possible 136 rating for High Chaparral and 133 for Hawkwing.

Fourth placed Jelani 106 was beaten 15l or 22 1/2lb giving a possible rating of 129/130 for High Chaparral and 126/127 for Hawkwing.

If High Chaparral hadn't been in the Derby, Hawkwing as a Champion 2yo who had gone on to win the Derby by 12l and the Lockinge by 11l would look like the horse he was, one capable of monster performances on his going days.

tryfix · 09-08-2012 6:58pm

Morgans wrote: »

You do know that if the race was run 30 mins later, Frankel would have won by 12l and not 11l. Just something to throw into the mix. As I said, email the BHA or Timeform. I'm sure they will supply you with the clarification you need.

I'm prepared to admit that Frankels times could be boosting his rating.

So for the hell of it I looked at his finishing time in the Queen Anne and compared it to the time that the 3 yo Most Improved carrying the same weight posted an hour later in the St James Palace stakes. 1m 40.14 for the three year old and 1.37.85 for Frankel gives Frankel a superiority of 2.29 seconds.

At 6 lengths per second that gives Frankel a superiority of 13.74 lengths x 2lb per length = 27.5 lb superiority over Most Improved.

Add on another 2l or 4lb for the argument that the ground was drying by a length per half hour. That's 31.5llb minus the 10 lb WFA allowance that 3yos get in the second half of June. that gives Frankel 21.5lb superiority over the now 116 rated Most improved.

That makes his Queen Anne performance equal to somewhere between 133.5 and 137.5, but to get him to 137.5 you have to give him 4lb based on the belief that the ground was drying by 2l per hour.

For the record the 6 races that day went like this, 1st Frankel fast by 1.15, 2nd slow by 0.9, 3rd Most Improved slow by 0.14, 4th slow by 0.64, 5th slow by 9.5, 6th slow by 1.61.

There's no indication from those times that the track was speeding up by 2l or 4lb an hour. So it looks like Frankel most likely did actually run close to his usual 135 in the Queen Anne.

swimming in a sea · 10-08-2012 2:07pm

disappointing to see the York international now seems to be cutting up, Nathaniel looks like giving it a miss,

tryfix · 10-08-2012 2:52pm

swimming in a sea wrote: »

disappointing to see the York international now seems to be cutting up, Nathaniel looks like giving it a miss,

I wonder will Imperial Monarch go for it instead of St Nick who has never looked like a 10f horse, a spanking by Frankel won't do his reputation any good.

Excelebration gets a chance to boost Frankel's form on Sunday in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, it looks a good race but I'd say he'll take it if he's bounced back from his last flop.

UrbanSea · 10-08-2012 5:28pm

I'd love to see Astrology race over 10 in a group 1

hucklebuck · 13-08-2012 10:36pm

On the Frankel comments that he would beat Sea The Stars over a mile, both ran the Guineas on GF and Sea The Stars had a quicker time.

Sure you can talk all you want about how the races were won but Frankel looked flat out and Sea The Star was looking better the further he went.

Gringo180 · 15-08-2012 2:36pm

hucklebuck wrote: »

On the Frankel comments that he would beat Sea The Stars over a mile, both ran the Guineas on GF and Sea The Stars had a quicker time. [/B}

Sure you can talk all you want about how the races were won but Frankel looked flat out and Sea The Star was looking better the further he went.

Didnt know that at all :eek: Very interesting indeed!

swimming in a sea · 15-08-2012 4:08pm

hucklebuck wrote: »

On the Frankel comments that he would beat Sea The Stars over a mile, both ran the Guineas on GF and Sea The Stars had a quicker time.

Sure you can talk all you want about how the races were won but Frankel looked flat out and Sea The Star was looking better the further he went.

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Whatever argument can be made for Sea the Stars been better than Frankel its not this, in fact your only hurting your argument.
Going by official times Sea the Stars was 1.52 seconds faster than Frankel, no argument from me. But take a look and the race and you'll see about first 5 or 6 home all beat Frankels time.
So going by that he would not have been even placed in the 2009 Guineas,

Oh no I don't agree, Frankel is the finest miler at least since Brigadier Gerard, possibly Hawk Wing on his day would have been a match for him over 8F but not Sea the Stars.

hucklebuck · 15-08-2012 9:00pm

swimming in a sea wrote: »

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Whatever argument can be made for Sea the Stars been better than Frankel its not this, in fact your only hurting your argument.
Going by official times Sea the Stars was 1.52 seconds faster than Frankel, no argument from me. But take a look and the race and you'll see about first 5 or 6 home all beat Frankels time.
So going by that he would not have been even placed in the 2009 Guineas,

Oh no I don't agree, Frankel is the finest miler at least since Brigadier Gerard, possibly Hawk Wing on his day would have been a match for him over 8F but not Sea the Stars.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Sounds like you are getting caught up in the hype of the "brilliant Guineas win by Frankel", it wasn't that special, Dubawi Gold and Native Khan were closing on him in the last furlong. Why is it so unbelievable that he wouldn't have placed if he was slower than three other horses?

Sea The Stars was a class apart, he fought for his head for 2f, he was not fully extended and he was quicker at the same age, same ground and same track. God knows what he would have done if he was let run free by Kinane.

I guess a direct comparison isn't enough to convince you though.

If you think Hawk Wing is possibly a match for Frankel I rest my case.:cool:

swimming in a sea · 15-08-2012 11:21pm

hucklebuck wrote: »

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Sounds like you are getting caught up in the hype of the "brilliant Guineas win by Frankel", it wasn't that special, Dubawi Gold and Native Khan were closing on him in the last furlong. Why is it so unbelievable that he wouldn't have placed if he was slower than three other horses?

Sea The Stars was a class apart, he fought for his head for 2f, he was not fully extended and he was quicker at the same age, same ground and same track. God knows what he would have done if he was let run free by Kinane.

I guess a direct comparison isn't enough to convince you though.

If you think Hawk Wing is possibly a match for Frankel I rest my case.:cool:

No I didn't get carried away with the Guineas, no where did I suggest I did. But to use times as a basis to compare horses is just plain foolish.

Why don't you use times so, and start to wager on them, tell us all how much profit you make.:D:D

ArmaniJeanss · 16-08-2012 12:12am

Comparing the Guineas wins of STS and Frankel on a direct time basis is fairly pointless to be honest.

Running fast times when you out on your own is inherently difficult, its far easier to do so when you are covered up for large sections of the race, and have other horses around you who take the lead for small sections.

This is not even just a horse racing thing, we saw it last week in athletics as well. But its one of the first thing that horse racing punters who choose to specialise in time realise.

hucklebuck · 20-08-2012 8:27pm

swimming in a sea wrote: »

No I didn't get carried away with the Guineas, no where did I suggest I did. But to use times as a basis to compare horses is just plain foolish.

Why don't you use times so, and start to wager on them, tell us all how much profit you make.:D:D

It is the only comparison that can be make between the two, as all things are equal save for the difference in the way the races were run.

You wouldn't do that bad backing on times but every system is fallible, that is why we have bookies to place our bets with

Morgans · 20-08-2012 8:33pm

Invariably, people reach for time to bolster their arguments whenever form lets them down. Its internet horse racing forum's godwin's law.

hucklebuck · 20-08-2012 8:37pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Comparing the Guineas wins of STS and Frankel on a direct time basis is fairly pointless to be honest.

Running fast times when you out on your own is inherently difficult, its far easier to do so when you are covered up for large sections of the race, and have other horses around you who take the lead for small sections.

This is not even just a horse racing thing, we saw it last week in athletics as well. But its one of the first thing that horse racing punters who choose to specialise in time realise.

It was the only comparison between the two horses with everything else equal.

A lot of people slate Sea The Stars when talking about Frankel and I though it was a decent comparison. Sea The Stars was deceptively quick, I still get goosebumps watching his Arc especially at the top of the straight when he ghosted past a horse up the rail like it wasn't moving.

Interestingly enough Frankel hasn't ran a mile quicker than Sea The Stars Guineas, OK Frankel only got GF in his Guineas and hasn't been flat out in some of them but mostly the races have been run to suit him with Bullet Train giving him a tow.

hucklebuck · 20-08-2012 8:56pm

Morgans wrote: »

Invariably, people reach for time to bolster their arguments whenever form lets them down. Its internet horse racing forum's godwin's law.

Time is a decent yardstick over the same distance, sure it is fallible but so is comparing form when one horse has just beaten one horse over one distance time and again.

Do you think Frankels rating is fair or is he over rated?

Morgans · 20-08-2012 11:17pm

Which rating? I do my own crude ratings for NH but not for flat.

I dont see any reason for him to be overhyped by the BHA - Timeform use a different method. Nick Mordin has him returning time figures that are miles ahead of ordinary group 1 winners as well. I wouldnt bet on any horse in my lifetime beating him between 6f and a mile at least. That includes the likes of Zilzal, Dancing Brave, and Dayjur over 6f. (Dayjur over 5f different story)

I think Excelebration winning the Jacques Le Marois ahead 6 different group 1 winners should hopefully stop some of the nonsense being talked about him. He would be champion miler, and a decent one at that, this year and last but for Frankel. I dont the Jacques Le Marois think was his best performance either. He may not be as good this year.

Im sure if Frankel wins by 8l this week, it will be said that he didn't face anything in the race.

If I was Coolmore, Id have put in Astrology, So You Think and St Nicholas Abbey. Obviously, So You Think had to leave when he did, but I would have tracked Astrology with him, and kicked 3 or 4 out. If Frankel went with him fine, but it would have set up the race for a closer.

There is no way that Sea The Stars would have beaten him over a mile. And using time to say horses like Delegator and Gan Amhras would as well shows the pointlessness of going down that route to persuade anyone. Frankel would have murdered and Excelebration would have beaten Delegator or Gan Amhras.

Morgans · 20-08-2012 11:28pm

Looked at his form again. Had Frankel been injured/never been born, Excelebration would have lost on his debut.

He then would have won 11 out of his 12 races. He would have won

Prix du Moulin (GP I) - 1.5l
QE II (GP I) - 3.5l
Lockinge (GP I) - 4l
Queen Anne (GP I) - nk
Jacques Le Marois (GP I) - 1.5l
German 2000 guineas (GP II) - 7l
Hungerford Stakes (GP II) - 6l
Gladness (GP III)
Greenham Stakes (GP III)

He would have been 2nd in James Palace

People still think he is an average horse - Frankel has never faced good opposition. Had he faced something like Rock of Gibraltar...

tryfix · 21-08-2012 1:04am

Morgans wrote: »

Which rating? I do my own crude ratings for NH but not for flat.

I dont see any reason for him to be overhyped by the BHA - Timeform use a different method. Nick Mordin has him returning time figures that are miles ahead of ordinary group 1 winners as well. I wouldnt bet on any horse in my lifetime beating him between 6f and a mile at least. That includes the likes of Zilzal, Dancing Brave, and Dayjur over 6f. (Dayjur over 5f different story)

I think Excelebration winning the Jacques Le Marois ahead 6 different group 1 winners should hopefully stop some of the nonsense being talked about him. He would be champion miler, and a decent one at that, this year and last but for Frankel. I dont the Jacques Le Marois think was his best performance either. He may not be as good this year.

Im sure if Frankel wins by 8l this week, it will be said that he didn't face anything in the race.

If I was Coolmore, Id have put in Astrology, So You Think and St Nicholas Abbey. Obviously, So You Think had to leave when he did, but I would have tracked Astrology with him, and kicked 3 or 4 out. If Frankel went with him fine, but it would have set up the race for a closer.

There is no way that Sea The Stars would have beaten him over a mile. And using time to say horses like Delegator and Gan Amhras would as well shows the pointlessness of going down that route to persuade anyone. Frankel would have murdered and Excelebration would have beaten Delegator or Gan Amhras.

This is the big one in terms of separating Frankel from the usual gang he kicks around the place at a mile. If I was Coolmore, I'd have put Imperial Monarch in, he's a hard horse to shake off and he might have finished close enough to Frankel to boost his own rating a bit.

If Frankel is a 140 horse, then he'll beat Saint Nicholas Abbey by 9l, Farhh by 10 1/4l, Twice over by 12 1/2l, Sri Putra and Planteur by 13 3/4l.

If he's a 135 horse, then he'll beat SNA 6 1/4l, Farhh by 7 1/2l, Twice Over by 9 3/4l, Sri Putra and Planteur by 10 3/4l.

SNA is an unknown quantity at a mile and a quarter, but the rest of them should be capable of running to their mark, although Planteur has the potential to run above his 117 OR mark.

UrbanSea · 21-08-2012 2:27am

Morgans wrote: »

Looked at his form again. Had Frankel been injured/never been born, Excelebration would have lost on his debut.

He then would have won 11 out of his 12 races. He would have won

Prix du Moulin (GP I) - 1.5l
QE II (GP I) - 3.5l
Lockinge (GP I) - 4l
Queen Anne (GP I) - nk
Jacques Le Marois (GP I) - 1.5l
German 2000 guineas (GP II) - 7l
Hungerford Stakes (GP II) - 6l
Gladness (GP III)
Greenham Stakes (GP III)

He would have been 2nd in James Palace

People still think he is an average horse - Frankel has never faced good opposition. Had he faced something like Rock of Gibraltar...

Wonder how he'd fare against THE IRON HORSE and THE ROCK

hucklebuck · 21-08-2012 8:17am

Morgans wrote: »

Which rating? I do my own crude ratings for NH but not for flat.

I dont see any reason for him to be overhyped by the BHA - Timeform use a different method. Nick Mordin has him returning time figures that are miles ahead of ordinary group 1 winners as well. I wouldnt bet on any horse in my lifetime beating him between 6f and a mile at least. That includes the likes of Zilzal, Dancing Brave, and Dayjur over 6f. (Dayjur over 5f different story)

I think Excelebration winning the Jacques Le Marois ahead 6 different group 1 winners should hopefully stop some of the nonsense being talked about him. He would be champion miler, and a decent one at that, this year and last but for Frankel. I dont the Jacques Le Marois think was his best performance either. He may not be as good this year.

Im sure if Frankel wins by 8l this week, it will be said that he didn't face anything in the race.

If I was Coolmore, Id have put in Astrology, So You Think and St Nicholas Abbey. Obviously, So You Think had to leave when he did, but I would have tracked Astrology with him, and kicked 3 or 4 out. If Frankel went with him fine, but it would have set up the race for a closer.

There is no way that Sea The Stars would have beaten him over a mile. And using time to say horses like Delegator and Gan Amhras would as well shows the pointlessness of going down that route to persuade anyone. Frankel would have murdered and Excelebration would have beaten Delegator or Gan Amhras.

His BHA rating, I think Frankel is great but better than the greatest of all time, I think that is being over generous.

I am surprised by the Mordin speed figures, I hadnt heard that.

I am not knocking Excelebration as a horse, he would be a good group winner if Frankel wasn't around.

There is a case for Excelbration having been broken by Frankel, his Le Marois was a deserved win for him and give him more heart for his next battle with Frankel.

I only use the time of the race as people were spouting rubbish that Sea The Stars would have been beaten by Frankel on the bridle and it would be a lot closer than that.

What do you make of all of Frankels mile races being slower than STS guineas(caveats on previous post)?

I can't wait to see Frankel tomorrow, I hope Joseph uses his head and goes for home 4 out, Twice Over has lost it so St Nic looks the only chance of giving Frankel a race.

Sussex Stakes

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