Call it!

PopeBuckfastXVI · 31-05-2012 10:32pm #1

All over now bar the counting, lets see your predictions.

Mine is Yes 46 : No 54

drunkmonkey · 31-05-2012 10:35pm

Yes 62 No 38

Technocentral · 31-05-2012 10:37pm

57% Yes, 43% No.

I consulted The Count off Sesame Street to check those figures added up before posting them this time.

jmcc · 31-05-2012 10:39pm

~50% turnout:

No 50.25
Yes 49.75

55% Turnout:
Yes 52%
No 48%

Regards...jmcc

Seth Brundle · 31-05-2012 10:40pm

Yes: 37%
No: 32%
No but I'll vote yes next time: 31%

rabjoshu · 31-05-2012 10:40pm

Yes 45 No 55

oscarBravo · 31-05-2012 10:41pm

Yes 50.5%, no 49.5%, followed by claims that the government don't have a mandate to ratify with such a narrow margin and low turnout.

Scioch · 31-05-2012 10:59pm

51.9% Yes - 48.1% No

Pretty close I'd imagine if its a poor turnout.

steelcityblues · 31-05-2012 11:04pm

53.2% YES - 46.8% NO.

Hope I am wrong, though.

[-0-] · 31-05-2012 11:06pm

48% turnout.
No 55 Yes 45.

steelcityblues · 31-05-2012 11:07pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Yes 62 No 38

I think I can safely say, you will be wrong.

gandalf · 31-05-2012 11:20pm

No 55% Yes 45%

49% turnout

Atlantis50 · 31-05-2012 11:21pm

Yes victory by 2 to 3%.

Permabear · 31-05-2012 11:23pm

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20Cent · 31-05-2012 11:24pm

yes 52
no 48

Richard Hillman · 31-05-2012 11:26pm

No 54% Yes 46%

ninebeanrows · 31-05-2012 11:28pm

Yes: 61.4% No 38.6%

reverselogic · 31-05-2012 11:35pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The problem is, it wasn't a poll conducted by the Government. It was the Government that were polled!

Edit: Also, my guess is 61% No - 39% Yes.

steelcityblues · 31-05-2012 11:37pm

Permabear wrote: »

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Quick question - do you trust the government?

Permabear · 31-05-2012 11:39pm

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Permabear · 31-05-2012 11:41pm

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ninebeanrows · 31-05-2012 11:41pm

Permabear wrote: »

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think they are just citing an out of date report, which was taking the latest opinion poll as valid data!

steelcityblues · 31-05-2012 11:43pm

Permabear wrote: »

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Only because they are usually wrong, as it is. Mainstream media nearly always takes governments words.Thought a libertarian like yourself would know all of this.

glenkeo · 31-05-2012 11:44pm

Yes 63 no 37

Turn out around 50% same has most other ref bar one (nice1 or lisbon1) which was around 43 % and a no

nkay1985 · 31-05-2012 11:47pm

Yes 54.5% - No 45.5%

My name is URL · 31-05-2012 11:53pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

I have a suspicion that those figures are based on a polling forecast which was published in the Telegraph yesterday

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9301109/Dublin-forecasts-60pc-of-voters-will-back-EU-fiskalpakt.html

Could be wrong though.

Ozymandius2011 · 31-05-2012 11:54pm

David McCullagh has tweeted that no reputable company did an exit poll this week, according to Spotty on politics.ie. I am sick of this lazy journalism where elements of the media report rumours as facts. Euronews is doing the same.

My prediction is 52% Yes 48% no but as I have a bet on a no vote and want to retain Irish sovereignty I hope for a no vote. I am disappointed at the low turnout in places like Donegal and that the turnout in hotbeds of Federalism in parts of Dublin was no lower.

31-05-2012 11:57pm

What a bloody shambles the media and their cohorts in this country are that none could get their **** together for an exit poll.

Anyway, 55-45 no.

Ozymandius2011 · 01-06-2012 12:05am

David McCullagh arguing with Bruno Waterfield on Twitter on whether the 60:40 poll exists. Waterfield saying “I’m making my own calls”. Oddly Waterfield claims its ‘presumably based on reports from returning officers’. http://twitter.com/#!/brunobrussels

mike65 · 01-06-2012 12:11am

57/43 yes.

meglome · 01-06-2012 12:19am

I'll have to admit given the sea of poop on this treaty I have never been sure of a Yes. I'm still thinking 57:43 no, though I hope I'm wrong.

And me a big Yes whore

Tarzann · 01-06-2012 12:35am

52-48 to NO.
Bit of a swing on betfair throughout the day, however YES remains the favourite

kiermul · 01-06-2012 12:38am

Euro news at 12.30pm starts there news bulletin with "Ireland says yes"
Have they counted them all already and not told us ?

Ozymandius2011 · 01-06-2012 12:42am

I think this is lazy journalism by international news agencies before the count has even started.

There was a FG exit poll to Lisbon 2 and it was 52-48 in favour. That was 15% less than the yes vote actually got. So even if an exit poll existed, it would be extremely dubious to take it as the result.

Wereghost · 01-06-2012 12:50am

70:30 Yes. It seems to me that a lot of people are voting Yes just to go against Sinn Fėin's preferred result. Well, there are worse reasons for voting a given way.

Pompey Magnus · 01-06-2012 12:52am

I'm guessing 59-41 to Yes.

A_Sober_Paddy · 01-06-2012 12:55am

Turnout 43%

Yes 41
No 59

Trhiggy83 · 01-06-2012 12:57am

Everyone i have been talking too has voted no, i think it will be a lot closer than people think... Ill go 50% yes and 50% no

Red Crow · 01-06-2012 12:59am

Yes - 58%
No - 42%

I'd say that is the lowest it will be. From talking to friends and people inside my constituency more people said they were voting 'NO' but it was more likely that most of those people wouldn't show up.

K-9 · 01-06-2012 1:02am

46% national turnout.

54% Yes

46% No.

RossNolan · 01-06-2012 1:35am

I'm hoping No but I think the Yes will take it 56 - 44 or so.

Even though I think the Yes side will win I can't believe the Tony Connelly poll that the Yes side got over 60%. To begin with it would go against all precedent - a low turnout (which has always favoured No voters on EU treaties), the tendency of opinion polls to underestimate No support and the late in the day decision of Richard Boyd Barrett to back the No side. If Connelly's poll is right the No vote actually lost support compared with just a week ago.

JONJO THE MISER · 01-06-2012 1:36am

Yes 59 No 41.

meglome · 01-06-2012 1:45am

RossNolan wrote: »

...the tendency of opinion polls to underestimate No support and the late in the day decision of Richard Boyd Barrett to back the No side. If Connelly's poll is right the No vote actually lost support compared with just a week ago.

You really think Richard Boyd-Barrett is a bonus to the no side? Normally when he says something I almost automatically assume the opposite.

Happyman42 · 01-06-2012 9:02am

meglome wrote: »

Normally when he says something I almost automatically assume the opposite.

Three words that say why you should start listening to people on the left.....Dublin Docklands Authority.;)

PopeBuckfastXVI · 01-06-2012 9:07am

meglome wrote: »

Normally when he says something I almost automatically assume the opposite.

Happyman42 wrote: »

Three words that say why you should start listening to people on the left.....Dublin Docklands Authority.;)

Here's a thing. I agree with Richard Boyd Barrett when he talks about the Iraq war, because he is holding the same position as me. I disagree when he talks about the EU, because he holds an opposite position to me. Funny how that works. Mind you life would be much simpler, and so would I, if I just said things like X says A so the right answer MUST be B, or vice versa, all the time.

hobochris · 01-06-2012 9:18am

54:46 in favour of No.

and then ofcourse a revote as thats how "democracy" works in this joke we call a country. :rolleyes:

Duiske · 01-06-2012 9:22am

RossNolan wrote: »

and the late in the day decision of Richard Boyd Barrett to back the No side.

Boyd Barrett has been pretty clear on his "No"stance since it was announced that a referendum was required. Are you sure your not thinking of Declan Ganley ?

Happyman42 · 01-06-2012 9:24am

PopeBuckfastXVI wrote: »

Here's a thing. I agree with Richard Boyd Barrett when he talks about the Iraq war, because he is holding the same position as me. I disagree when he talks about the EU, because he holds an opposite position to me. Funny how that works. Mind you life would be much simpler, and so would I, if I just said things like X says A so the right answer MUST be B, or vice versa, all the time.

But isn't it a sign (AGAIN) that the ethics in successive governments is rotten to the core? Do you think FG/Lab are going to put the right people in jail for what went on there after all the lipservice has been done?
I don't agree with everything RBB says or everything that is said on the left but I don't use the gombeen blanket of derision that some here do. Some who portray themselves as politically astute! You don't have to sell your soul but it's high time that people listened up and used their votes to end this.

martyoo · 01-06-2012 9:25am

Yes: 55%
No: 45%

PopeBuckfastXVI · 01-06-2012 9:26am

Happyman42 wrote: »

But isn't it a sign (AGAIN) that the prevailng ethics in successive governments is rotten to the core? Do you think FG/Lab are going to put the right people in jail for what went on there after all the lipservice has been done?
I don't agree with everything RBB says or everything that is said on the left but I don't use the gombeen blanket of derision that some here do. Some who portray themselves as politically astute! You don't have to sell your soul but it's long high time that people listened up and used their votes to end this.

Where crimes were committed the offenders should be jailed. I've no idea where you got from my post that I didn't believe that!?

glenkeo · 01-06-2012 9:28am

Just heard on newstalk First talls due at 10;30 very early tall from a few boxes in dublin castle show 3 to 1 to yes

Call it!

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