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2013 Predictions Thread
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28-03-2013 01:23PM#1
Comments
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Did my win projections this week based on Pythagorean Expectation of 2012 run totals adjusted for opinion-based differences for 2013 in the areas of Offense, Rotation and Bullpen. My first year using this projection model and I did it on a team by team basis so not sure if overall totals are possible!
But I'll be putting up a few of my calculations in the gambling forum later this week once I take a closer look at my projections versus bookies' win lines.
I see Nats again having the best record in baseball, they could even top over 100 wins I think with a full year of Strasburg, Harper and an actual closer.
However I'm backing Angels to win the WS, beating Washington 4-1.
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Did my kind-of half year totals from actual standings versus my predictions posted above out of interest.
So far the following teams I had predicted under .500 but are currently above:
Pirates
Orioles
Indians (though I had them in 2nd in division where they are)
And the following I predicted over .500 but currently below:
Blue Jays
Angels
Phillies
Dodgers
Giants
And in percentage terms, I have all teams trending pretty well. Out of the 30 predictions, 27 of them are currently less than .100 (ie 10%) variance from where I predicted them.
I only have 3 teams that are trending more than 10% from where I said they'd end up:
Red Sox (.609 currently I had them at .500 even)
Pirates (.629 I had .481 - I'm going to be wrong on this one they'll definitely finish above .500)
Nationals (.506 I had been very bullish on them at .611 - still think they'll win the division)
Still a long way to go but I'm happier with my Central and Eastern predictions so far rather than the Wests' which I think will both end up way off.0 -
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