Is Summer Coming???

I think it will turn milder through the week but the models may shift to reveal a strong storm closer to Ireland than we've seen in recent runs on the 12th into the 13th. If high pressure settles in over the British Isles through that period instead, there would be potential for an inversion to develop and for cold conditions to return at the surface. But I think the solution eventually will be a strong low pressure area moving through the northern parts of the British Isles around then. Temperatures would peak around 12-13 C as well.

Danno wrote: »

MTC, can you elaborate further on this storm potential? What sypnotics are taking place for it? What can we expect from it? I know it is quite a bit out at the moment - and you probably dont want to say too much in case it does not go to plan, how and ever, I for one will not be criticising you if it does not come off.

Likewise. sorry if you felt like i was putting you on the spot over this.

The storm forecast comes from a research finding that has verified about 80% of the time in the past few winters, that strong low pressure often moves past the British Isles around the times of full and new moon, and on the odd occasion when this is not the case, there has been a blocking high present and the strong low has been forced up to the north of Iceland instead.

So as you know, the models quite often are only vaguely accurate beyond seven days but tend to pick up on large-scale trends first, then the details later, and I have been seeing some convergence in the models on a gradual warming trend next week which is about what I was expecting as the research also shows peaks of temperature around the full moon.

This is part of some research that has been explained over on Net-weather in some research threads, and is still quite controversial, but unlike some who get into this line of research, I am looking at lunar effects more as a contribution to something more complex, rather than the whole proposed explanation for all weather events. Some factors not associated with the moon at all are presumed to be behind the large-scale patterns such as this recent cold spell ... at this point we are still ten days out, and I think the signs point to some chance of the inversion high being the outcome, but as long as that doesn't take over the stage, the more likely outcome would be a strong frontal system. I expect we are going to see many different "looks" for this event in the next few days and then the models will get enough of a clear signal for it to start showing us what is really going to happen.

Thanks for offering not to slag me in advance, I'll hold you to that one.

(added later -- the 00z GFS is showing a strong northerly setting up at this time, watch for this to acquire some front-end energy loading if it remains the theme because I would not expect this energy peak to just go straight from bland mild to strong northerly, there would probably be a deeper low moving along the frontal boundary first).