Hurricane Nate is on his way here next Tuesday .

Sponge Bob · 08-09-2005 9:50am #1

A Big Wet Splat I'd say . who is in charge of 'our' disaster plan agin , Willie O Dea ?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL1505W5_sm2+gif/024641W_sm.gif

Meanwhile Hurricane Maria looks like heading to Iceland Instead of here, as feared a few days back.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1405W5_sm2+gif/024624W_sm.gif

Hobbes · 08-09-2005 10:30am

There is a weather forum for these posts. Unless you can prove the hurricane is bleeding heart left wing hippie.

Sponge Bob · 08-09-2005 10:31am

I want to discuss Irish Disaster Planning . Seeing as we have 1 weeks warning we can plan FFS !!!

Hobbes · 08-09-2005 10:57am

You do know that the line isn't actually a prediction of its direction, the white blobby area is.

Sarsfield · 08-09-2005 11:15am

Just have your iodine tablets ready and you'll be fine. They're still in date aren't they?

Sponge Bob · 08-09-2005 11:22am

The point I am trying to make here is that we (collectively) are generally warned well in advance of nasty weather systems.....one potential disaster vector .

The problem is that while Willie O Dea bangs on in the Dáil about a 'plan' it happens that we have no plan .....or plans.... beyond a 737 with 150 people droppping in a field near the N4 or an oil spill on the N8 Thats the height of it in Ireland .

Any oversight of our non-plan is obscured from FIA requests on the grounds of security , the prime beneficiaries of obscurity being the government who do nothing to plan for these events. See the following update on what we 'allegedly ' have. Scary stuff .

Just think of Willie O Dea in charge of FEMA and Homeland Security and Defence in the US but maintaining that he is not responsible for anything at the end of the day .......his own words .

Read the bold bits first and then read it all

From .

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/DDebate.aspx?F=DAL20050526.xml&Node=H9-5#H9-5

Emergency planning is a key focus of my remit as Minister for Defence and it was a sad coincidence that the Garda Síochána had planned two exercises this week to test inter-agency responses in scenarios similar to the incident that occurred on Monday. In light of the circumstances of this incident, these exercises have been postponed to concentrate resources where they were needed most. I have asked representatives of the Government task force on emergency planning to brief those present at the June meeting on the responses to this incident.

The Government task force was established in October 2001. The membership of the task force includes Ministers, senior officials, senior officers of the Defence Forces and the Garda Síochána and officials of other key public authorities that have a lead or support role in Government emergency planning. The work of the task force continues and there have been 38 meetings to date. It continues to meet on a regular basis, as required, and the last meeting was held on 26 April 2005.

The office of emergency planning was established, following a Government decision in October 2001, as a joint civil and military office within my Department. The office supports the work of the task force and continues to work with Departments and other public authorities to ensure the best possible use of resources and compatibility between different emergency planning requirements and to oversee Government emergency planning in general.

The interdepartmental working group on emergency planning supports the work of the task force and oversees and carries out studies of emergency planning structures and processes. It is a forum for developing strategic guidance to all those involved and for sharing information on emergency planning. The working group encompasses all Departments with lead roles in the various Government emergency plans and key public authorities, including the Defence Forces. The working group continues to meet on a regular basis, under the guidance of the task force, and is chaired by the office of emergency planning. It has met on 34 occasions. The last meeting was held on 7 April 2005.

The lead responsibility for specific emergency planning functions remains with the relevant Departments, as do budgetary, exercise programme and resource management requirements. Emergency plans are co-ordinated by the various lead Departments at national level and through the local authorities, including the fire service, the Health Service Executive and the Garda divisions at local and regional levels.

Departments and key public authorities involved in this process have particular responsibilities under eight strategic areas of Government emergency planning. In 2004 my officials met 13 Departments with responsibilities for emergency planning and four State bodies which provide key support functions. Each of these Departments has assured the office of emergency planning that it is addressing its emergency planning responsibilities and has plans and response arrangements in place to address large-scale emergencies in Ireland.

My approach continues to be that such responses must be characterised by effective management of all aspects of emergency planning and by a high level of public confidence in all the response arrangements. I am keenly aware of the public confidence issues involved in emergency planning. It is my objective that information being presented to both the media and the public be aimed at developing an understanding of emergency planning issues and the likely responses that any emergency may require.

Review and refinement of arrangements, including regular exercises, will ensure co-ordination of all those responding. This work and the deliberations of the task force include sensitive areas of emergency planning. It would not be appropriate to give detailed information about meetings of the task force. Responsibility for internal security is a matter for the Garda Síochána, with support, as appropriate, from the Defence Forces.

Testing and exercising of emergency plans is an ongoing critical part of the emergency planning function for each lead Department and for those agencies under their aegis. The task force is informed on issues arising from this continued work. As chairperson, I have requested all authorities to review their emergency plans regularly, revise them as appropriate and develop structured programmes to exercise such plans. The Garda Síochána will continue a series of regional inter-agency exercises. I am pleased with the level of co-operation across the various agencies involved. Findings from these exercises will be a matter for the Garda Síochána and my colleague, the Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform. Issues arising are also matters for each Department concerned and those agencies under its aegis. Where co-ordination of emergency planning is a concern, this can be addressed by the Government task force.

I will continue to report regularly on a confidential basis to Government on emergency planning.

In plain English

I am in charge of the task force. The task force delegated the Planning to the emergency planning group which delegates the planning to the working group and the working group delegates the planning to 13 separate government departements and 4 semi states. and some local authorities and firemen too .

Therefore, I , Willeeeeeeeeee , am not responsible for anything really and thats all right with me

. I am just telling ye now OK !

Its not funny though

08-09-2005 12:08pm

Sponge Bob wrote:

I want to discuss Irish Disaster Planning . Seeing as we have 1 weeks warning we can plan FFS !!!

Well you could have stated that in your first post and added the detail that you have in your last one.

Given that you have been a bit more specefic,I'll leave this thread here.

Nuttzz · 08-09-2005 2:02pm

Sponge Bob wrote:

I want to discuss Irish Disaster Planning . Seeing as we have 1 weeks warning we can plan FFS !!!

No one in governemnt is interested, its not a vote getter. Until someone is killed and there is an outcry then it becomes an issue, e.g. school buses

Sponge Bob · 08-09-2005 2:26pm

Earthman wrote:

Well you could have stated that in your first post and added the detail that you have in your last one.

The possibility of a Hurricane strike combining with large scale disruption to Communications Networks also arises , see this OTHER NOAA site for Details on the risks .

Solar Storms cause electrical interference in the Atmosphere which crashes the like of Mobile Phone Networks and even power grids.

The severity is rated on a scale like the Cat 1 - Cat 5 hurricane scale. Here is the Radio scale and here is the Solar scale . If we were hit by a Cat 5 Hurricane together with an R5 and an S5 we would have no comms at that time to warn anyone.

The last time the earth was hit by a Cat 5+ solar eventy was in 1859, a bit before my time, when comms systems were not so common.

In scientific circles where solar flares, magnetic storms and other unique solar events are discussed, the occurrences of September 1-2, 1859, are the star stuff of legend. Even 144 years ago, many of Earth's inhabitants realized something momentous had just occurred. Within hours, telegraph wires in both the United States and Europe spontaneously shorted out, causing numerous fires, while the Northern Lights, solar-induced phenomena more closely associated with regions near Earth's North Pole, were documented as far south as Rome, Havana and Hawaii, with similar effects at the South Pole

S5 Events

Biological: unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity); passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible.

Other systems: complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult.

R5 Events
[size=-1][/size]

HF Radio:Complete HF (high frequency**) radio blackout on the entire sunlit side of the Earth lasting for a number of hours. This results in no HF radio contact with mariners and en route aviators in this sector. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals used by maritime and general aviation systems experience outages on the sunlit side of the Earth for many hours, causing loss in positioning. Increased satellite navigation errors in positioning for several hours on the sunlit side of Earth, which may spread into the night side

We had an R4 warning yesterday, as follows.

[size=-1]HF Radio:[/size][size=-1] : HF radio communication blackout on most of the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours. HF radio contact lost during this time. [/size] [size=-1]Navigation: Outages of low-frequency navigation signals cause increased error in positioning for one to two hours. Minor disruptions of satellite navigation possible on the sunlit side of Earth.[/size]

The last time Ireland took a Tsunami was in 1755 after the Lisbon Earthquake

The last Cat 4 or 5 Hurricane in Ireland was in 1839

The last mega solar storm was in 1859 . There is some evidence (based on Aurora sightings down around the Med thru history) that a similar event occurs maybe once ever 100-200 years

All are probably overdue in Ireland , so whats wrong with some planning then ?

bonkey · 08-09-2005 2:42pm

Do we know that the 1839 was a cat4 or greater, or is that just supposition? I couldnt' see anything in the article.

My understanding of weather systems is that winds of that nature would fall into the freak occurrence" category.....so to suggest they are somehow overdue for repetition would seem unreasonable.

As for the "if we were hit by two freak occurrences at the same time" argument....that reads to me about as solid an argument as "if an asteroid were to hit the earth". I'd hazard the odds are somewhat comparable.

We dont' have unlimited pockets. Disaster management needs to docus against the disasters that could reasonably occur....and freak weather occurrences (let alone combinations of them) do not seem to fit that category to me.

jc

bonkey · 08-09-2005 2:45pm

We had an R4 warning yesterday

I think its fair to say that an R4 is absolutely nowhere near as threatening as a Cat 4 hurricane then.....

I only point this out, because you suggested that The severity is rated on a scale like the Cat 1 - Cat 5 hurricane scale

Its like the hurricane scale in that it goes from 1 to 5....but the threat and damage from equivalently numbered events have clearly got nothing in common.

jc

Sponge Bob · 08-09-2005 3:06pm

bonkey wrote:

Do we know that the 1839 was a cat4 or greater, or is that just supposition? I couldnt' see anything in the article.

Yeah, its a myth all right While every wind instrument got blown out (surprise) barometers recorded the pressure. 972 in Dublin est low of 918 off the west coast (quoted from here ) . The supposition is based on reports of the damage from the time including salt water ingress.....down chimneys inland

Sea water was carried inland by the force of the storm and flooded houses when it poured down chimneys. The most abiding memory of the night, and its aftermath, that remained with people was the smell of salt which lingered in houses for weeks. Seaweed too was carried inland for great distances. Herrings and other fish were found miles from shore.

The big solar storm is the most interesting crux. We will have to shut the ESB down as soon as we know of it , so how can we warn people again ????

bonkey · 08-09-2005 4:57pm

Sponge Bob wrote:

Yeah, its a myth all right

Who suggested it was a myth? I asked if the storm was known to be cat4, or if that was supposition - that people concluded the winds must have been yea strong.

Interestingly, the second link you've provided has clarified that the wind was measured up to a max of 124 - the strongest ever sea-level wind recorded in Ireland. Thats interesting, because 124mph would only make it a category 3 hurricane.

Hence my question...

The big solar storm is the most interesting crux. We will have to shut the ESB down as soon as we know of it , so how can we warn people again ????

Warning? How are you going to find out its coming before it hits? And I'm not sure what the political angle on this is. Is there something the minister should be doing? Some other country that has a disaster plan for solar storms that we should be emulating?

<edit>
Also, aside from the short-term threat to air traffic, the effects of a level-5 solar storm as described in what you've given us links to sounds less invoncencing and threatening then the storm of '97. Again, I'm not sure why we'd even need disaster plans for such an event.

I suppose it would give people a reason to complain further about the nanny state tho.
</edit>

jc
jc

Sponge Bob · 08-09-2005 5:21pm

1. The measurement of 124mph was taken on the leeward east coast in County Down , not the windward west coast which bore the brunt of the storm.

2. The speed of light and all that , we will see it before we get it.

Not every country has a unitary grid , we do but the US has grids and so do many other countries .

The Tsunami/Giant Storm Wave risk may be greater than one biggie every few hundred years , see http://www.irishexaminer.com/text/story.asp?j=92351872&p=9z35y888&n=92351932 and also see http://cpfieldinstitute.org/k12_event_show.php?event_id=52

From the latter

In the north Atlantic, waves in excess of 65ft occur more than 100 times a year, and 95ft waves occur on average once every 100 years. The average winter wave height increased 15 per cent between 1985 and 1995 in the area to the west of the Shetland, and global sea levels have increased by a millimetre per year over the past century.

oh and from the latter

Stone huts on the Aran islands positioned 95ft above sea level were buried by boulders during a storm in 1839 known as the "Night of the Big Wind".

The big difference between 1839 and 2005 is that people are more mobile on the west and south coasts and can be told to move inland fairly sharpish.

The simplest wasy to do that is to broadcast a warning to every cellphone in every cell along the coast as quickly as possible saying "Wave or Storm coming, move inland now" . In order to do so in an orderly way there should be a rehearsal every year or two ....even if that rehearsal was only to get emergency personnel deployed to manage the traffic .

The current situation is that there is no plan, there are no rehearsals and that the chaos ensuing from a disorderly rout inland could be more dangerous than a wave/tsunami event .........

Thats what planning and rehearsals are designed to avoid. We do neither in this country.

netwhizkid · 08-09-2005 6:18pm

Sponge Bob wrote:

A Big Wet Splat I'd say . who is in charge of 'our' disaster plan agin , Willie O Dea ?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL1505W5_sm2+gif/024641W_sm.gif

Is this for Real or dribble like the time a few months ago some Muppet posted on AH that Sellafield was after blowing up and the media were covering it all up, i was worried out of my wits then, this looks rather serious if true. Can anyone remember Christmas 1997 or 1998 when that huge Storm ravaged Ireland for two or three days that was the worst I've ever seen here. I am particularly concerned as this could throw Ireland into chaos.

Webmonkey · 08-09-2005 8:21pm

Where ye getting all this information. I'm like you netwizkid. Bit worried as i'm from Kerry and close to where that picture suggests the hurricane coming. It would be awful to have a Tsunami

08-09-2005 10:08pm

bonkey wrote:

Do we know that the 1839 was a cat4 or greater, or is that just supposition? I couldnt' see anything in the article.

As far as I can remember we had 2 Xmas storms within the last decade with wind gusts recorded at over 100mph.
The first one did a lot of damage to the power lines and phone lines in the south east whilst the other buggered the North west.

We coped.

We have had floods, serious floods but not on the scale of NO obviously but locally some pretty nast scenes.Iirc the town of Enniscorthy was under 8 ft of water in places, with houses flooded to their upstairs windows.Several other towns also experiences this recently including towns in Tipperary and Bray if memory serves.

Now I've been pretty busy of late and am not as up to speed on weather as I usually am, but I can tell you that unusual or freaky events are going to happen in the next week.
The most imminent is roughly 3 to 4 inches of rain south of a line from Dublin to Clare in the next 48 hrs.Now that is going to cause a lot of spot flooding but its a long way off the 15 to 20 inches received from Katrina.
I suspect we'll cope,it's just a bit wetter than usual, but then theres a soil moisture defecit at the moment so thats going to soak a lot of it up too.

As regards Nate....

Mother nature is very excitable at the moment and isn't relying on computer models to decide what to do with it.
The models are all over the place at the moment
This suggests for instance that both storms will track towards Iceland.
Whilst this suggests that we should perhaps be considering including sunglasses manufaturers and suncream makers in our share portfolios.

Webmonkey-theres not going to be a tsunami in Kerry in the next week or so anyway-I'm closing this thread if it gets any dafter.
Now back to discussing the particulars of our disaster plans (if any)

Sponge Bob · 08-09-2005 10:21pm

Earthman wrote:

Webmonkey-theres not going to be a tsunami in Kerry in the next week or so Now back to discussing the particulars of our disaster plans (if any)

A little storm surge maybe

, nothing to do with Tsunamis though

Does anyone know of any "National Emergency Plan" or of any modelling for extreme weather events or is Willie O Dea taking complete sh1te as usual

.

Webmonkey · 08-09-2005 10:30pm

I think storms are exciting, looking forward to it though it causes a lot of problems and damages things

billy the squid · 09-09-2005 4:55am

Sponge Bob wrote:

A little storm surge maybe , nothing to do with Tsunamis though

La Palma Tsunami senario
http://mfile.akamai.com/5022/wmv/coast.download.akamai.com/5022/video/lp_tsu_atlantic.asx

back to the matter at hand

Does anyone know of any "National Emergency Plan" or of any modelling for extreme weather events or is Willie O Dea taking complete sh1te as usual .

[/quote]

Ireland would be more at risk from dodgy craftmanship at the Selefield Nuclear plant in Britain. and from the Iodine Tablet fiasco, one can guess the level of preparedness for that.

although a quick google found this
http://www.rpii.ie/radiation/emergency.html

mike65 · 11-09-2005 11:22pm

What hurricane?

Mike.

jd · 11-09-2005 11:50pm

In 1854 a suspected tsunami hit the south wexford coat near Kilmore Quay.

http://nisee.berkeley.edu/images/servlet/EqiisBrowse?group=Wexford-01

More in last year's Kilmore Parish Journal
http://www.wexford.ie/Library/Local%20Studies/journals.htm

South Wexford would be fairly vulnerable to inundation if storms became more energetic/sea levels rose.

12-09-2005 9:22am

mike65 wrote:

What hurricane?

Mike.

Well I did say the models are all over the place.
One should never trust them more than 4 or 5 days out anyway.
Oh and it is time for sunglasses and factor 15 as it's gonna be warm and sunny(max 23-25c) today and tomorrow-Enjoy!

I'd move this to the weather board only we are already discussing this in several threads there.

Closed

Hurricane Nate is on his way here next Tuesday .

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