Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

jimboblep wrote: »

Dont know a whole lot about ukraine would it be divided along religous and ethnic lines like yugoslavia

Generally along ethnic lines.

North-West, Ukranian, nationalist, Pro-European
South-East, Russian, imperialist, Pro-Russian

There have, however, been protests in the South-East/Russian stronghold.

A war won't go well for pro-western Ukrainians. One side will have Putin to back them up and the other will have the EU blocking sunflower oil imports.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/02/19/could-ukraines-crisis-become-a-civil-war/

Here's an interesting article from Max Fisher stating a civil war is highly unlikely as it's doubtful the army will split amongst itself. We may see the military used to restore order (which will be nasty) but I can't see a protracted civil war developing.

Rightwing wrote: »

I came on here to have a read of this as normally 1 or 2 punters seem to know a great detail on a political subject. Doesn't appear to be the case with Ukraine. It's looking serious, who is to blame the EU or Russia ?

Neither, this is an internal conflict which has been simmering for years.

The Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and beaten only by Belarus in Europe.
HIV Infection rates are among the worst in Europe. Ukranians claims that resources for HIV Treatments have been stolen by the Yanukovich government.

Yanukovich has used his position to enrich himself and his family, and help his son evade criminal prosecution.

Ukranians flood the Polish labour market, particularly during Summer.
The Nationalist Ukrainians compare themselves to Poland, and are conscious of their extreme divergence in economic and social success since the end of the Cold War, and see the EU as realistic escape from Russian Imperialism.
Many formerly pro-Russian people are also in favour of EU membership.

However, there is a massive chunk of the population who are pro-Russian. It's very difficult to describe the nationalist mentality which ethnic Russians are typically afflicted by, it's really something you need to experience first hand - needs to be seen to be believed.

Throw in the extortionist tactics used by Russia via Gazprom, the imprisonment of Tymoshenko etc. etc.

Guys I seen the FB post of a women asking us to help to talk to out TDs .today I seen on live leak. ???? Pictures if people unarmed been shot .im horrified can we do anything .as normal people. I'm all for the if you can help you should thought . But don't know what todo .im just so sad to see this happen.my friend is from the ukrain and shes a lovely kind mammy of one. My daughters best friend .what to do. ?????

josip wrote: »

Cathy, things have changed a lot in the last 24 hours. Have a look at the BBC to see what the latest situation is. The shootings have stopped for now.

Thank you i will. Its so sad in this day and age i thought we had moved on as a society. .

Yanukovych's whereabouts unknown, border guards definitely stopped his plane taking off yesterday, but he could be anywhere by now

His own party has now fully disowned him, labelling him a coward
"We condemn the cowardly flight of Yanukovych. We condemn the betrayal. We condemn the criminal orders , which framed the common people , soldiers and officers."

It looks like the speaker will be acting president until elections in May. Some ministers have been sacked and even arrested. The deaths of protesters will be investigated as "mass-murder". The boxer Vitali Klitshko has said he will run.

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

These people believe that their country's economic and political sovereignty is being taken by Russia and they want....wait a second. They want to join the EU?

Political sovereignty?
They don't care so much about it.
Why do you think they do?
& How would a pro-European stance, or a pro-Russian stance, or a completely independent stance alter their political sovereignty?

They are one of the most corrupt countries on the planet and their political sovereignty is largely shaped far more by the geopolitical situation, than by the wishes of the oligarchy (evidently, based on recent events).


What they actually care about, primarily, about the economic divergence between Poland and Ukraine, with many secondary concerns.


Source: national statistics committees, IMF

Table 1. Average Wages in Ukraine, Russia and Poland (dollars per month)



Source: National statistics committees, estimates by the Institute of Energy and Finance

They want economic opportunity. Just like Poland has seen since 1990, and the Ukraine hasn't.

I suggest you read up on the divergence of Poland and Ukraine's economic fate since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

I believe that's incorrect. 40% or thereabouts wanted closer ties with the EU, they did not necessarily want full membership of the EU. another 37 or 38% wanted to join the customs union with Russia.

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/poll-ukrainian-public-split-over-eu-customs-union-options-332470.html
Europe is favored by 39 percent of Ukrainians, and 37 percent prefer the Customs Union, said the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Some 76 percent of the Ukrainians polled in the middle of this November said they were ready to take part in a referendum on the foreign policy vector.

Same as before, the European Union is mostly chosen over the Customs Union in the western and central regions (69 percent vs. 11 percent and 43 percent vs. 27 percent), while the Customs Union is more popular in the southern and eastern regions (51 percent vs. 29 percent and 61 percent vs. 15 percent).

Similar with the poll of this September, the entry into the EU mostly gained the support of young Ukrainians (52% of the respondents aged from 18 to 29 and 41 percent of the respondents aged from 30 to 39), while the Customs Union is favored by older citizens (41 percent of the respondents aged from 50 to 59, 42% of the respondents aged from 60 to 69, and 48 percent of the respondents older than 70).

Their past is with the Russian Federation certainly.
Evidently, they want their future to be with Europe.

I - personally - do not want the Ukraine to be admitted to the EU until there is some serious reform, lest we risk another Bulgarian situation.

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

AKA actually Russian. Again more unhelpful dichotomies between sinister, regressive Russian nationalism and "Ukrainian nationalism" which you wrongfully describe as solely being pro-western, liberal and pro-EU in origin.

Strawman argument.
I neither wrote not implied Russian nationalism was regressive nor that Ukrainian nationalism is positive.
You made that distinction.

What I actually wrote is that ethnic Russians (such as my partner) as vehemently patriotic, in a way which is entirely foreign to most Westerners.
The Russian media are partially to blame here: For example, some elements of the media had initially reported that the Ukranians were protesting because they didn't want to join the EU:D

However, many Russian natives are more sceptical and have much more balanced/realistic opinions - particularly those outside the Moscow & St.Petersburg regions, and see Russia as Moscow-centric, much like rUK see the UK as London-centric.

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

You conveniently ignore how Russian speakers are ALREADY having their language rights being taken away by the new government

That legal change occurred after I had made my post, so unless I you believe I have a crystal ball...

I personally don't approve of it, but this particular regressive measure is hardly isolated to the Ukraine.

A similar situation has existed in the other former Warsaw Pact countries for years, and it is hardly targeted solely at Russians.

http://www.economist.com/node/21549987
Lithuanian law says official documents, such as passports and birth certificates, may be written only in the Lithuanian alphabet, which lacks the letter W and most of the diacritical marks of Polish.

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

...you ignore how mobs of hooligans have destroyed priceless statues simply because they depicted Russians (in the vein of how the Taliban destroyed Buddhist monuments in Afghanistan after seizing power) such as that of Kutuzov in Brody, and numerous statues of Lenin (although Lenin is controversial, statues of him are nonetheless to be treated as historical artefacts and placed in museums and the like, not obliterated). There's obviously a sinister Russophobic streak in the protests (although, of course, not all nationalists behave as such).

Again, that's hardly isolated to the Ukraine.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/deadly-riots-in-tallinn-soviet-memorial-causes-rift-between-estonia-and-russia-a-479809.html

We tore down or blew up our monuments post-revolutionary struggle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson's_Pillar

(Something the Russians might know a bit about themselves?)

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

You mean that time Ukraine was illegally siphoning gas off Russia and then cried when Russia expected it to pay at market prices as opposed to the huge discounts it had been getting beforehand?

There is no denying that Ukraine did that, but you deny that Russia has used Gazprom as a political weapon against Ukraine, Moldova etc?

p.s. Huge discounts? Mykola Azarov seems to disagree

Americans pay $70 for 1000 cubic meters of gas when Ukraine pays $550 to Russia for the same amount.
Mykola Azarov, Ukraine Prime Minister

Why did Russia ban the importation of Moldovan Wine?

Why did Russia (& Belarus) ban the importation of Ukranian Choclate?

Then lift it after Yanukovich reneged on the EU agreement? LOL:p

Eggy Baby wrote:

Source?

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/transparency-international-slams-ukraine-as-most-corrupt-in-europe-332965.html

In its 2013 Corruption Perceptions Index released today, Transparancy International slammed Ukraine, calling the country the most corrupt nation in Europe and the fifth most corrupt in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Ukraine tied for 144th place in the ranking with Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Iran, Nigeria, and Papua New Guinea. That ranking placed it ahead of several Central Asian post-Soviet states, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Ukraine’s position remains unchanged from 2012, though Ukraine’s score fell, indicating a marginally higher level of corruption over the previous year.

Eggy Baby wrote:

Interesting opinions but how are they relevant to the main issue here?

How does the belief of Ukranian citizens that the Ukranian government has stolen vast quantities of money from their HIV fund - Sochi style - or their international reputation for corruption, cause an internal dispute?

I don't really need to elaborate do I?

And my assumption is, that given the recent crises in Europe, many formerly pro-EU Ukrainians are now either pro-Russia or neutral.

That's nice, but the Polls I quoted above from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, don't reinforce that assumption.

Joining the EU is not a magic bullet which ends corruption or economic stagnation or crime or AIDS or whatever.

Agree. Hence why I'm personally very reluctant to admit them pre-reform.

All fisking aside, the violence here has been truly horrendous and I dearly hope that the Ukrainians do not have to suffer an escalation of said violence.

P.S people are beginning to speculate that Russia might send in the tanks. Such hyperbole is obstructive to a reasoned exploration of the issues at hand.

Russia won't send the military into Western Ukraine.
The Russian military are already in Eastern Ukraine.

Jonny7 wrote: »

As an aside, they had a very corrupt leader, who is now a fugitive and wanted for possible charges of mass murder

Isn't it rumored he found refuge in a sanatorium near the Kremlin ?

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

...
- and the entire Russian economy depends on Oil & Gas to survive.

No Oil revenue = no Russia.

Will Angela be turning the reactors back on soon?

josip wrote: »

Will Angela be turning the reactors back on soon?

Depends on how the 'Fracking' in North America goes

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/oil/10476647/Fracking-boom-frees-the-US-from-old-oil-alliances.html
The US will soon overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest producer of crude oil, liberating its foreign policy from dependency on a handful of oil-rich Arab allies

and how long Russia could sustain economic sanctions.
Historically, when oil prices have collapsed, so has Russia/CCCP.



If you recall when Medvedev was in power, he stressed the need to move away from commodities and develop services/manufacturing, but it never really happened.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medvedev_modernisation_programme

http://rt.com/business/putin-russia-oil-labor-632/
The current abyss between consumption and productivity is dangerous, Putin said. “Living off rent from natural resources, at the expense of future generations, unearned wealth cannot be stable or long term," he added.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323936404578579530810890780
MOSCOW--Russia President Vladimir Putin Monday urged natural gas exporting countries to join forces and defend traditional long-term oil-linked gas contracts in the face of the growing popularity of spot pricing.

Of course, Ukraine are estimated to be less than a decade from complete energy indepedence due to the developments of their shale gas industry.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/abe8802a-4d0c-11e3-9f40-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2uXonQeS1

RobbingBandit wrote: »

Given the economic importance of Ukraine to both the EU and Russians what with the gas pipe line running through the country would either allow a civil war to break out and in the case that it does what could either one do to end it?

Gazprom had already started construction on the South Stream to circumvent Ukraine, before the revolution.

http://rt.com/business/gazprom-bulgaria-south-stream-064/
The South Stream pipeline will stretch 2400 km and by 2019 could have a 64 billion cubic meter annual capacity, delivering natural gas to Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Slovenia, and Austria and Italy in one direction and Croatia, Macedonia, Greece and Turkey in a second.

The undersea portion that runs the Black Sea will be able to transport 15.8 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Eastern Europe.

Gazprom pumps 17.8 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Bulgaria through Ukraine and Romania, Bloomberg News reports. Bulgaria spends as much as 1.4 billion euros annually on gas imports

Most recently, Gazprom demanded Ukraine urgently pay a $1 billion overdue gas bill, raising fears of a new "gas war".
Pricing disputes over advance payments in have caused major supply disruptions, both in 2006 and 2009, when Russia shut off gas to Ukraine, leaving many customers without heat.

The first effort to circumvent Ukraine was the Nord Stream project, which connects Russia and Germany under the Baltic Sea. It is estimated to have cost $7.4 billion and opened in November 2011.

Allegations starting to surface of tens of billions missing from the state coffers

In a dollar value apparently 37 billion is gone - but now reports surfacing and accusations that a further 70 billion may be either partially or fully compromised, absolutely mind-blowing stuff

cerastes wrote: »

How the fcuk can you siphon off billions, I suppose this isn't the thread for it, they have some experience of siphoning stuff off though

Still, they dont owe as much as we do, least they got some tanks and shhit for it

Gadaffi and his family managed up to squirrel away up to $200 billion

I don't trust the figures on Ukraine yet. Bribes, corruption, slush funds, sleaze, etc aside - a huge amount of money could simply be gone through lax controls, mismanagement and bad investments