Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

About east ukraine and west , im originally from ukraine and i have never met someone from east who wants live separatly, my cousins live in east (one in Kharkiv, atother in Crimea, which is originally Tatar and Russian), and they support united Ukraine with new goverment. I havent been there for a long time, but i keep eye on a situation there

Jonny7 wrote: »

As an aside, they had a very corrupt leader, who is now a fugitive and wanted for possible charges of mass murder

Isn't it rumored he found refuge in a sanatorium near the Kremlin ?

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

...
- and the entire Russian economy depends on Oil & Gas to survive.

No Oil revenue = no Russia.

Will Angela be turning the reactors back on soon?

josip wrote: »

Will Angela be turning the reactors back on soon?

Depends on how the 'Fracking' in North America goes

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/oil/10476647/Fracking-boom-frees-the-US-from-old-oil-alliances.html
The US will soon overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest producer of crude oil, liberating its foreign policy from dependency on a handful of oil-rich Arab allies

and how long Russia could sustain economic sanctions.
Historically, when oil prices have collapsed, so has Russia/CCCP.



If you recall when Medvedev was in power, he stressed the need to move away from commodities and develop services/manufacturing, but it never really happened.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medvedev_modernisation_programme

http://rt.com/business/putin-russia-oil-labor-632/
The current abyss between consumption and productivity is dangerous, Putin said. “Living off rent from natural resources, at the expense of future generations, unearned wealth cannot be stable or long term," he added.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323936404578579530810890780
MOSCOW--Russia President Vladimir Putin Monday urged natural gas exporting countries to join forces and defend traditional long-term oil-linked gas contracts in the face of the growing popularity of spot pricing.

Of course, Ukraine are estimated to be less than a decade from complete energy indepedence due to the developments of their shale gas industry.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/abe8802a-4d0c-11e3-9f40-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2uXonQeS1

RobbingBandit wrote: »

Given the economic importance of Ukraine to both the EU and Russians what with the gas pipe line running through the country would either allow a civil war to break out and in the case that it does what could either one do to end it?

Gazprom had already started construction on the South Stream to circumvent Ukraine, before the revolution.

http://rt.com/business/gazprom-bulgaria-south-stream-064/
The South Stream pipeline will stretch 2400 km and by 2019 could have a 64 billion cubic meter annual capacity, delivering natural gas to Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Slovenia, and Austria and Italy in one direction and Croatia, Macedonia, Greece and Turkey in a second.

The undersea portion that runs the Black Sea will be able to transport 15.8 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Eastern Europe.

Gazprom pumps 17.8 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Bulgaria through Ukraine and Romania, Bloomberg News reports. Bulgaria spends as much as 1.4 billion euros annually on gas imports

Most recently, Gazprom demanded Ukraine urgently pay a $1 billion overdue gas bill, raising fears of a new "gas war".
Pricing disputes over advance payments in have caused major supply disruptions, both in 2006 and 2009, when Russia shut off gas to Ukraine, leaving many customers without heat.

The first effort to circumvent Ukraine was the Nord Stream project, which connects Russia and Germany under the Baltic Sea. It is estimated to have cost $7.4 billion and opened in November 2011.

Allegations starting to surface of tens of billions missing from the state coffers

In a dollar value apparently 37 billion is gone - but now reports surfacing and accusations that a further 70 billion may be either partially or fully compromised, absolutely mind-blowing stuff

cerastes wrote: »

How the fcuk can you siphon off billions, I suppose this isn't the thread for it, they have some experience of siphoning stuff off though

Still, they dont owe as much as we do, least they got some tanks and shhit for it

Gadaffi and his family managed up to squirrel away up to $200 billion

I don't trust the figures on Ukraine yet. Bribes, corruption, slush funds, sleaze, etc aside - a huge amount of money could simply be gone through lax controls, mismanagement and bad investments

Yanukovich Live Interview on RT Now
http://rt.com/on-air/

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...pe-332965.html

In its 2013 Corruption Perceptions Index released today, Transparancy International slammed Ukraine, calling the country the most corrupt nation in Europe and the fifth most corrupt in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Ukraine tied for 144th place in the ranking with Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Iran, Nigeria, and Papua New Guinea. That ranking placed it ahead of several Central Asian post-Soviet states, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Ukraine’s position remains unchanged from 2012, though Ukraine’s score fell, indicating a marginally higher level of corruption over the previous year.

The Corruption Perceptions Index? Are you joking?

Russia won't send the military into Western Ukraine.
The Russian military are already in Eastern Ukraine.

Conspiracy theory stuff. Any Russians who have occupied border posts are likely ethnic militias.

Russian forces who ARE in Ukraine, however, are playing a defensive role in and around Sevastopol (adjacent to the Russian military base there). The Russians are "in" Eastern Ukraine no more than the Americans are "in" Eastern Cuba.

Why did Russia (& Belarus) ban the importation of Ukranian Choclate?

My assumption is because the chocolate was found to be containing harmful chemicals. It even says so in the article you linked. Plus, it was a ban on chocolate from one chocolate maker, not an absolute ban on Ukrainian chocolate.

Americans pay $70 for 1000 cubic meters of gas when Ukraine pays $550 to Russia for the same amount.
Mykola Azarov, Ukraine Prime Minister

What you conveniently forgot to mention is that Ukrainians were paying only 50 dollars per 1000 cm of Russian gas in 2005 which is a truly staggering discount. Its prices have been steadily brought into line with the price EU nations pay for 1000 cm of Russian gas over the last few years.

Secondly, you are comparing apples and oranges here. America is more or less sufficient in natural gas. Ukraine is not, and imports over 80% of its natural gas from abroad. Domestic gas would obviously be cheaper in the USA because of the abundant supply. Americans pay far less because they import most of their own gas. Then of course we have to factor in other economic factors with differ between the US and Ukraine, such as inflation, charges etc.

Why did Russia ban the importation of Moldovan Wine?

My assumption is that they were exercising their sovereign right to decide who to trade with. Boo hoo.

In this respect, they are no better than the USA or the EU, both of which have politically charged embargoes currently active, I believe.

Welcome to the modern world, where there is no separation between economics and politics.

Again, that's hardly isolated to the Ukraine.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-479809.html

We tore down or blew up our monuments post-revolutionary struggle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson's_Pillar

(Something the Russians might know a bit about themselves?)

Just because we or the Estonians did it, doesn't make it acceptable (Estonia isn't relevant here because they only moved the monument, they didn't destroy it).

I won't even consider what you are trying to suggest with that unusual comment at the end of the quote.

There is no denying that Ukraine did that, but you deny that Russia has used Gazprom as a political weapon against Ukraine, Moldova etc?

I didn't deny it. Russia has obviously used Gazprom as a political weapon, but the gas disputes are far more nuanced situations than: the evil Soviet revanchist Russians oppress the poor, underdog Ukrainians. Its not like Russia turns off the gas willy-nilly. It has an interest in keeping them open, you know.

That legal change occurred after I had made my post, so unless I you believe I have a crystal ball...

I personally don't approve of it, but this particular regressive measure is hardly isolated to the Ukraine.

A similar situation has existed in the other former Warsaw Pact countries for years, and it is hardly targeted solely at Russians.

Apologies, I didn't realise that you had made your post before the law was introduced.

I didn't say that the Ukraine was the only country that introduced this. Such measures have been introduced in Estonia, for example. But the Ukrainian law is an obvious attempt to sate the baying Banderists who roam Kiev, to keep them happy at the expense of the huge Russian (etc.) population within Ukraine.

You made that distinction.

It was implicit, borderline explicit, by your wording.

Their past is with the Russian Federation certainly.
Evidently, they want their future to be with Europe.

So....let me get this straight. You are suggesting from these figures that because a majority of young Ukrainians support EU integration, Ukrainians have vested their future in the EU? Maybe the elderly or middle age want to have a say in Ukraine's future? Their opinions are as relevant to the future of Ukraine as those of the youth. How on earth did you extrapolate those opinions from these figures....unbelievable.

I - personally - do not want the Ukraine to be admitted to the EU until there is some serious reform, lest we risk another Bulgarian situation.

Glad we can agree on something

I wish that we can just let Ukraine be in the extended economic area. I don't understand why the EU gets into these conflicts with Russia (and vice versa, of course).

Political sovereignty?
They don't care so much about it.
Why do you think they do?

The destruction of Russian symbols and statues and the removing of the Russian language's protected status are obviously political statements against imaginary "Russian Imperialism" or some such crap that you mentioned in your first post.

The protests, as with 99% percent of all protests and revolutions, were sparked by economic conditions, I agree with you there. The difference between Poland and Ukraine is glaring in terms of individual wealth as well as GDP growth. But Ukraine has a completely different society to that of Poland.

Poland weathered shock therapy very well, and their economy recovered fast after the fall of the USSR. Ukraine didn't, possibly because it was so dependent on Russia (which also tanked). For reference, see how both the Ukrainian and Russian economies shrank during the Great Recession. Russia had huge currency reserves, Ukraine didn't. Russia took a huge hit, Ukraine took a bigger hit.

Whether or not Poland's economy did so well as a result of the EU is another thing which is unclear.

Again its very unlikely, given current factors, that Ukraine will benefit from the EU. Its also very unlikely that Ukraine will even join the EU anytime soon (an EU trade agreement does not equate to EU membership and never will).

Regarding the EU, I can say with confidence as a student of EU Law that if the Ukrainians seek to assert their popular sovereignty by joining the EU they are asserting in the wrong place. Its like trying to assert your bravery by jumping off a cliff.

Even then, there are huge divisions in Ukrainian society which assures that joining the EU with be a very divisive issue.

What I actually wrote is that ethnic Russians (such as my partner) as vehemently patriotic

And the Banderists roaming Kiev aren't? I know many Irish people who are "vehemently patriotic", who would reject anything English out of sheer principle, because of our historical relations with England/the UK.

In a dollar value apparently 37 billion is gone - but now reports surfacing and accusations that a further 70 billion may be either partially or fully compromised, absolutely mind-blowing stuff

Its no surprise that there is such incredible corruption among Yanukovych and his band of "good old boy" crooks.


Anyway; the Russians should encourage a plebiscite in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Thats how they will gain from this. Secondly, the EU and Russia should fund a joint bailout for Ukraine, methinks, although with all the instability I'd imagine a **** load would be stolen by the state et al. Hell, even if the state wasn't unstable a good portion of it would be stolen.

Aye, we should invade Russia. Perhaps we can also liberate their oil fields people in the process?

There's been an "End of History" view

In time, this "End of history" mentality will be viewed as a transient chauvinistic madness that once gripped the world in unenlightened times. In a hundred years, we will all be viewed as naive and narrowminded obscurantists.

The Russian "invasion" of Ukraine over the past 24 hours (those military helicopters weren't a local militia)

They weren't indeed, but they were part of the local Sevastopol garrison.

Is it just me, or is the politics forum filled with unreasonable Russophobic ("the Russians are coming! Quick, everybody join the EU!") types lately?

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

Is it just me, or is the politics forum filled with unreasonable Russophobic ("the Russians are coming! Quick, everybody join the EU!") types lately?

I think its just you.

Honestly, you seem to arise infused with righteous and patriotic fury to defend the honour of Mother Russia with your keyboard everytime there is a topic that even indirectly involves Russia. Just did a quick search of your Politics posts: Russia, Russia, Syria (Russia), Syria again, (Russia again), North Korea, Hugo Chavez (angry at the "American Empire"), various Israel threads (old enemy of the USSR/Russia back Arab client states). Long gaps in between the topics of months at a time.

That's not a criticism, just an observation. It really is likely just you who have the biased view when it comes to Russia.