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Possible IMF second Bailout if we say no to EU Fiscal Treaty?

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    #32
    meglome
    Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    Fully Established wrote: »
    One thing about these Treatys , if it is rejected it will be put again to the public until it is ratified , Nice and Lisbon come to my mind.

    Nice and Lisbon are EU treaties this Fiscal Compact isn't. Once it gets twelve signatures it's gets put into operation, we just get bypassed.


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    #33
    ardmacha
    Registered Users Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    Once it gets twelve signatures it's gets put into operation, we just get bypassed.

    But do you not think that there will be a clamour for a re-vote when the plans for the 30% cut in welfare etc are announced. The only advantage of this is that it might discredit those who expect money to grow on trees.


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    #34
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    ardmacha wrote: »
    But do you not think that there will be a clamour for a re-vote when the plans for the 30% cut in welfare etc are announced. The only advantage of this is that it might discredit those who expect money to grow on trees.

    In the event of a No vote, I'm pretty much expecting exactly this. Of course, it would be painted as the government/EU/ECB forcing us to vote again, this time with the gun closer to our heads, but the reality would be a panicked last-minute rush to get on board the money boat before our creditors closed in.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #35
    meglome
    Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    ardmacha wrote: »
    But do you not think that there will be a clamour for a re-vote when the plans for the 30% cut in welfare etc are announced. The only advantage of this is that it might discredit those who expect money to grow on trees.

    As Scofflaw already said this is most likely what will happen. Though from my point of view I'd rather not go down that road so I'm just stating the fact that the other EU nations don't need us to vote yes. The likes of Sinn Fein will just move the blame goalposts and the lying will continue. Though I must admit there are times when I really want a No vote just to show that it can get worse, to show up all the bullshít.


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    #36
    meglome
    Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    Actually has anyone got exactly what our obligations would be with this treaty? When and by how much do we have to pay down our debt? I know it's been posted just can't see it at the mo.


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    #37
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    meglome wrote: »
    Actually has anyone got exactly what our obligations would be with this treaty? When and by how much do we have to pay down our debt? I know it's been posted just can't see it at the mo.

    Let's see:
    1. We have to transpose the treaty limits into law.
    2. We have to create a 'correction mechanism' that kicks in automatically if we breach the limits, covering "in particular the nature, the size and the time-frame of the corrective action to be undertaken, also in the case of exceptional circumstances, and the role and independence of the institutions responsible at national level for monitoring the observance of the rules".
    3. If we fail to put such a correction mechanism into law properly within a year, we can be taken to the Court of Justice by one of the other Contracting Parties. If the Court finds against us, and then finds that we have not complied with its judgement, we can be fined.
    4. If our debt/nominal GDP ratio is greater than 60%, we have to reduce the ratio at a rate of one-twentieth per year. So if our ratio is 120%, we have to reduce the ratio by 3% per year either by reducing the debt or growing the economy, or a combination of both. Or, since it's nominal GDP, by letting inflation grow our nominal GDP.
    5. If our government deficit is greater than 3% of nominal GDP, it needs to go back under 3%.
    6. We need to run a 'structural deficit' of 0.5% or less of nominal GDP.
    7. The above applies unless (a) we are in a programme; (b) we are less than three years out of a programme; or (c) there are 'exceptional circumstances', which are defined as any extended period of negative or low GDP growth, or any unusual events which impact our GDP.
    8. If we are in breach of targets, and there are no 'exceptional circumstances', we need to produce a credible plan for reaching them.
    9. If we are both in breach of targets and making no apparent effort to reach them, then, after the convoluted Article 126 process for registering an excessive deficit procedure against us has completed, then we have to produce a "budgetary and economic partnership programme including a detailed description of the structural reforms which must be put in place and implemented to ensure an effective and durable correction of their excessive deficits". The "content and format of such programmes" is to be defined in EU law.
    10. The Council and Commission then endorse and monitor our programme plan.
    11. If the Commission makes recommendations in respect of our excessive deficit programme plan, we support them unless a majority of the other Member States who have signed up to the Fiscal Treaty block them.
    12. On an ongoing basis, all signatories agree to notify the Commission and Council of their debt issuance plans, and of any major economic reforms.
    13. There will be a regular conference of the national parliaments' relevant committees and the relevant committees of the European Parliament to "discuss budgetary policies and other issues covered by this Treaty".

    That's more or less it.Ideally, one would do a point by point comparison with the Stability & Growth Pact.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #38
    Boskowski
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,361 ✭✭✭Boskowski


    What I really am struggling with is how the treaty could possibly be a bad thing. If anything putting limitations on our politicians to enter mad spending (borrowing) sprays should be welcomed by everyone. Look where the last borrowing spray got us.

    If I was in government I would absolutely not be campaigning for a 'yes'. I would refuse to campaign, I would simply put the information out there.

    Is this really about refusing to enter more integration? Or are we really thinking the EU is at fault for our financial situation?

    Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind the 'no' campaigners? I really don't get it.


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    #39
    cml387
    Registered Users Posts: 8,380 ✭✭✭cml387


    I have the following conversations with my in laws over these referendums:

    Inlaw:I'm voting no because I don't understand what I'm voting for
    Me:Have you read the refendum literature.
    Inlaw: No.

    So that's one no vote.

    Secondly there are the septic tank,bogcutters and social charge people,maybe even the deflector people for all I know.
    There are more no votes.

    Thirdly there are the "bring the whole system crashing down and we'll get our socialist nirvana" (after a few heads have been cracked).

    So there you have it. The no campaign.


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    #40
    Lockstep
    Registered Users Posts: 9,029 ✭✭✭Lockstep


    We can only take out the IMF loans we need to plug our deficit with the other EU countries agreeing to support us.
    Colm McCarthy wrote:
    "In the event that the referendum is defeated and Ireland does not have ESM access, opposition politicians have been arguing that the country could still turn to the IMF in the absence of market access and of any further support from Europe. After all, the argument goes, we are members of the IMF independently of our membership of the EU and the eurozone.

    This looks like wishful thinking. IMF members are normally limited to borrowing six times their pre-arranged fund quota. Ireland will have exceeded 15 times the quota by 2013. This exceptional amount was agreed only because the current rescue deal was done jointly with European lenders, whose loans rank junior to those of the IMF.
    Source


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    #41
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    cml387 wrote: »
    I have the following conversations with my in laws over these referendums:

    Inlaw:I'm voting no because I don't understand what I'm voting for
    Me:Have you read the refendum literature.
    Inlaw: No.

    So that's one no vote.

    Secondly there are the septic tank,bogcutters and social charge people,maybe even the deflector people for all I know.
    There are more no votes.

    Thirdly there are the "bring the whole system crashing down and we'll get our socialist nirvana" (after a few heads have been cracked).

    So there you have it. The no campaign.

    We should throw in the "bring the whole system crashing down and we'll get our libertarian/properly capitalist nirvana" lot too. All the Fight Club "system reset" types, really. I don't know how common they are offline.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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