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21-02-2020, 23:00   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Feb 29th - Snowfall/Wintry Conditions









During Sunday afternoon and evening rain will sweep across the country from the west turning to snow as it encounters cold embedded air across Connaught, Ulster and north Leinster. There is broad agreement across all the models regarding risk.

The snow across north Leinster and south Connaught is likely to be short lived and turn back to rain reasonably quickly but across Ulster and north Connaught some disruptive falls should be expected. Any where between 5 and 15 cms to low levels there.

This forecast can still change to bring more of the country in to the disruptive criteria. For now it's the safest bet on north Connaught and Ulster having the disruptive weather.

Cold start to Sunday evening but turning milder from the south. Remaining very cold through the night across north Connaught and Ulster.

Flood risk

25 - 35mm of rain expected overnight - together with melting snow and a full water table bringing risk of flooding particularly in the midlands and west and around Shannon river basins in particular.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 23-02-2020 at 11:01.
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21-02-2020, 23:35   #2
pauldry
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I'll buy the ski gear tomorrow...and bread
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21-02-2020, 23:38   #3
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And that snow will have the longevity of a fart in the wind, unless it meets the top 100m of Errigal or Croagh Patrick. Strictly in isolation.
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21-02-2020, 23:55   #4
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Ulster says snow.

There’ll be a poster along in due course to say it’s snowing somewhere in Ulster, exact location unknown
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22-02-2020, 00:06   #5
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I have to repeat though the exact positioning of this is not certain just yet and everything depends on the track.

Some models have it tracking a bit further south across the country which would bring a higher risk for other areas. So there is a bit of rope to work with with this.



Height of 0c isotherm (in meters)


Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 22-02-2020 at 00:30.
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22-02-2020, 01:05   #6
pauldry
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Weather does look indeed quite weathery next week
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22-02-2020, 04:05   #7
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Hirlam, an important model for us, kicking the action off further south












Hirlam normally reasonably good at this range vs other lower resolution models.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 22-02-2020 at 04:50.
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22-02-2020, 07:00   #8
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Ready for anything out here. Extra stocks came in this week...All I need to do is bring in more turf from the North Face... and make sure the shovel is in the house in case I have to dig the cats in/out.
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22-02-2020, 09:10   #9
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ICON now goes south route as well. Change of title may be coming.



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22-02-2020, 10:08   #10
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Exciting eh?

On the edge.

I love it.
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22-02-2020, 11:14   #11
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ECM and ICON quite similar now, heavy snow falls the further North and both showing considerable amount of snow lying early morning. Tough driving conditions Sunday night into Monday morning in the Northern half of the country











Must be noted a lot of rainfall also Sunday into Monday, and what falls frozen melts so topping up the totals big time.





Last edited by Meteorite58; 22-02-2020 at 13:29. Reason: spelling !
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22-02-2020, 11:30   #12
nacho libre
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Just waiting for Gaoth Laidir to come along and downplay the snow risk

It does look promising though with some of the usually more sober short term models on board. It would be great to look out the window and see the ground covered in white rather than being rain soaked for a change!
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22-02-2020, 11:37   #13
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...

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 22-02-2020 at 20:51.
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22-02-2020, 11:49   #14
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Don't forget the onshore winds along the East Coast where temps will be around 4-6c. Similar setup like last year, further inland could be a different story but for now i don't see anything more than sleet for the Dublin surrounding regions.
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22-02-2020, 11:50   #15
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Tasty!

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