1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-
threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity.
Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow
any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane
warnings will likely be issued later today.
2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.
3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba
this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.
4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Expected to become a major Category 3 (conceivably higher depending on the rate of intensification and prime conditions in the Gulf) hurricane in the next 24 - 36 hours.