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07-10-2018, 10:10   #1
Meteorite58
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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

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https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...p?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

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Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.










Last edited by Meteorite58; 08-10-2018 at 19:31. Reason: Mod Note
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07-10-2018, 13:09   #2
Oscar Bravo
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Jean Byrne on the farming weather saying its looking stormy thursday night,friday and friday night. "A vicious system approaching bringing heavy rain and damaging winds."
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07-10-2018, 13:23   #3
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Looks like a bit of a bugger, although the GFS operational doesn't show it as being quite that serious.

Only benefit vs. Ali at the moment is that the trees are very rapidly dumping leaves so we shouldn't have as many trees down.
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07-10-2018, 14:19   #4
Harry Palmr
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Met Error's presentation this lunchtime managed to show us the storm graphic for about a quarter of a second! Don't they have a back button on that remote control?
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07-10-2018, 16:23   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry Palmr View Post
Met Error's presentation this lunchtime managed to show us the storm graphic for about a quarter of a second! Don't they have a back button on that remote control?
The bit you missed
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07-10-2018, 16:29   #6
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Could it be another storm brewing on its way?
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07-10-2018, 16:35   #7
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GFS has increased the wind speeds on the 6Z run ( Thurs and Sat windy in their own right with big rain potential ).






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07-10-2018, 16:48   #8
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Will see if the ECM maintains these projected winds. The wind speeds in bold white are mountain tops /high ground . At this stage looks like a slow moving Storm with widespread high wind speeds over many hours.

On Zoom can see quite a large area across the country gusting to 120 km/h, and areas gusting to 130 and 140 km/h. Just an indication of the storms potential. The charts will change through the week getting more fine tuned as time goes on.

Gusts













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07-10-2018, 16:53   #9
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Met Eireann

Quote:
Current indications suggest the end of the week will be extremely unsettled with high volumes of rain possible, as well as very strong winds.
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07-10-2018, 16:58   #10
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ICON just coming into range.





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07-10-2018, 17:03   #11
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NWW3 UK Ireland Wave Forecast Model Maps

High Tide Galway 07.30 - 5.21M 20.11 -5.02M
High Tide Limerick 09.34 -6.05M 21.57 -5.92M
High Tide Fenit 07.26 -4.49M 19.44 4.40M




Last edited by Meteorite58; 07-10-2018 at 17:17.
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07-10-2018, 17:06   #12
Storm 10
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Would that be a red warning if it happened, I'm sure ME will be keeping a close watch on this one
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07-10-2018, 17:10   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Storm 10 View Post
Would that be a red warning if it happened, I'm sure ME will be keeping a close watch on this one
The present charts would indicate for wind a very high end Orange warning for most areas and Red warning in various counties also. Probably a warning for rainfall also. Combined ? Will have to see if it continues to track close to Ireland . The trend over the last few runs has been bringing it closer and stronger.
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07-10-2018, 17:13   #14
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7am Friday not looking good for Achill on the GFS 12z:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles...89UK.GIF?07-12
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07-10-2018, 17:21   #15
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Just shows the difference in a run. GFS showing coming in earlier early morning. Big jump in wind speeds in that run.
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