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08-09-2018, 10:18   #1
star gazer
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Florence

Florence is forecast to be a Major Hurricane as it approaches the East coast of the US. It did briefly reach Category four winds a few days ago, confounding forecasters, but has since been weakened by shear to a tropical storm for now. It should be back to Hurricane strength during tomorrow. There's still some time to go before greater certainty comes as to whether it does make landfall on the East coast of the US and where but it is forecast to be a very dangerous and very destructive Hurricane so erring on the side of caution is wise. There's still time for the forecast track to shift but the window for a benign outcome is narrowing.

North Carolina State of Emergency https://twitter.com/breakingweather/...27298305146880


Graphics archive
Quote:
LOCATION...24.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
nhc
Quote:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.6N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.6N 57.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.9N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.0N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 30.9N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
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08-09-2018, 16:28   #2
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Florence is better organised but still impacted by drier air. Expected to start rapid intensification in about 24 hours but should be a Hurricane again even before then.
min pressure 995mb, forward movement at 11km/h 7mph. max sustained wind 100km/h 65mph. nhc
Quote:
863
WTNT41 KNHC 081453
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

Florence has undergone a dramatic structural evolution just within
the past 6 hours or so. Vertical shear has decreased just enough
for the storm to take on a more symmetric shape, with convection
developing in a ring around the low-level center, and an elongated
band wrapping around to the northeastern part of the circulation.
The convection has waned a little bit in intensity, however, due to
the presence of dry air, and Dvorak estimates support maintaining
an initial intensity of 55 kt for now. A NOAA P-3 aircraft is
approaching Florence now on a research mission and should provide
some useful data to better assess the storm's intensity.
Some parts further to the North of the current track at potential landfall have already soaked up a lot of water with increased flooding potential were significant Florence precipitation to fall there.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/s...33526331441154
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08-09-2018, 18:00   #3
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Still some potential that it could remain just offshore and recurve but most guidance pointing at Florence impacting the SE coast. High confidence of becoming a dangerous major Hurricane.

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...65785231024128

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038464607659143168

https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1038455264045932544

https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1038462806595719168

https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/stat...43534221828097
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08-09-2018, 20:22   #4
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Latest ECM showing consistency in general track. Beginning to show Florence stall ( or make slow progress ) on the coast which would not be good news, can only imagine the amount of rain it would dump. GFS showing a brush with the coast and a sort of a meandering pirouette before moving off in a NE'ly direction towards Newfounland and up towards Greenland.





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08-09-2018, 20:34   #5
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https://twitter.com/bnorcrossWPLG/st...15130118303744
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08-09-2018, 22:00   #6
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As expected, it's starting to strengthen. Tropical Storm Florence is up to 110km/h 70mph max sustained wind with minimum central pressure down to 989mb and moving West 270 at 7km/h. It is still expected to intensify rapidly soon and within about 48 hours be a Major Hurricane. The track is nudged a little North on this run so potentially heading towards the border of North Carolina and South Carolina, both of which have declared a state of emergency.
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08-09-2018, 23:46   #7
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Entering an environment low in shear and high SST's and higher temperatures in depth ,Florence projected to be a Major Cat 4 Hurricane at landfall ( or near landfall ). See below, the strongest Atlantic tropical storm in two decades forecast by the NHC from 5 days out.

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1038492065242464260


NHC

Quote:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 54.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.7N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.0N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
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09-09-2018, 08:39   #8
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The 06Z SHIPS has southerly shear increasing again over the last 24 hrs before landfall, so hopefully that plus the slither of low ocean heat content and continuing dry mid levels will help temper its intensity by then.

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realt...0618_ships.txt

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09-09-2018, 09:14   #9
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The eye is trying to form



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09-09-2018, 10:38   #10
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Florence is still a tropical storm but expected to become a Hurricane again today with, as mentioned above, it looking better organised now. Still 989mb. 110km/h moving at 9km/h. The track on five days has it a little North into North Carolina but remember it could still end up quite a distance away from that this far out.


Florence
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09-09-2018, 12:11   #11
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Latest imagery, Florence getting organised. ECM and GFS slight difference on track but both showing Florence stalling just inland or on the coast for 4-5 days .

Sat Loop including lightning.












Quote:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 25.3N 60.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 28.2N 69.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 34.4N 77.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND

NHC
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09-09-2018, 15:58   #12
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Hurricane Florence is gaining strength. Maximum Sustained Wind 120km/h 75mph, Minimum Central Pressure 984mb and forward movement 9km/h 6mph.
The track is broadly the same as the previous NHC guidance.
It's forecast to be a Category 4 Hurricane in about 2 days.
There is also a worry that it slows or even stalls at around landfall in five days time and all the flooding implications that go with that.

Virginia has also declared a State of Emergency.

For anyone in the potentially impacted area or for people curious:
Hurricane safety
Hurricane ready
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09-09-2018, 16:01   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by star gazer View Post
Hurricane Florence is gaining strength. Maximum Sustained Wind 120km/h 75mph, Minimum Central Pressure 984mb and forward movement 9km/h 6mph.
The track is broadly the same as the previous NHC guidance.
It's forecast to be a Category 4 Hurricane in about 2 days.
There is also a worry that it slows or even stalls at around landfall in five days time and all the flooding implications that go with that.

Virginia has also declared a State of Emergency.

For anyone in the potentially impacted area or for people curious:
Hurricane safety
Hurricane ready
Have a few friends in a place called Litchfield south of Myrtle Beach. Think they could escape the worst .
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09-09-2018, 16:14   #14
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Originally Posted by pad199207 View Post
Have a few friends in a place called Litchfield south of Myrtle Beach. Think they could escape the worst .
It's too early to tell. While adjustments have been pushing the forecast Florence landfall North it could still come back Southwards again. With the NHC graphic in the opening post, the cone is not the area of impact of the Hurricane, it's the area where the center of Florence might end up being and even that isn't a 100% garauntee, especially almost 5 days out. Here's more information on it: nhc
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09-09-2018, 17:47   #15
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Looks like it should maintain a vertically stacked near perfect profile as it approaches landfall given the lack of wind shear on the projected path.

This is turning in to a fairly serious situation.
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