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14-01-2018, 11:14   #1
Meteorite58
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Strong Winds for Munster, Connacht and Leinster : PM 17th/AM 18th, Jan 2018

This seems to be shaping up to being potentially quite stormy for Ireland Weds evening/ Thurs morning. A bit off yet but worth opening a thread to watch it's development over the coming days and to gather peoples views and insight . The title can be changed in due course.


So coming into a period of time where we are under the influence of a very strong W / NW airflow over the coming days and under a very strong jet stream.



The models have been showing an area of LP developing and deepening very quickly as it passes close to Ireland around Weds evening /early Thursday and the models although showing different tracks and intensity as you would expect this far out all show some impact on Ireland.

This was first being shown further S so will it continue to drift further N ?





850 hPa winds



GFS showing a similar track



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14-01-2018, 11:35   #2
squarecircles
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The ICON model was showing damaging & disruptive winds across Ireland last night.
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14-01-2018, 12:05   #3
Elmer Blooker
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MetE issued at 1130.
Quote:
Wednesday night: There is some uncertainty regarding the details at present, but a potentially disruptive period of weather is possible on Wednesday night as a deepening Atlantic depression tracks near to or perhaps even over some parts of Ireland bringing spells of rain and very strong winds.
Still uncertain so the forecast on RTE in an hour isn't really going to tell us anything. It might be Tuesday before we will know the path of this storm.

I can only describe that forecast by Siobhan Ryan as very odd! She showed a chart with the storm brewing in mid Atlantic and the next chart showed it near Denmark and barely mentioned what will happen in between?

Last edited by Elmer Blooker; 14-01-2018 at 13:49.
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14-01-2018, 12:23   #4
malinheader
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Large sea swell predicted too. Swell of 9 metres plus forecast for the NW coast. A good few years since this has happened here.
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14-01-2018, 13:46   #5
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Nearly touching 10 metres now.Going to be a bad one.
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14-01-2018, 13:49   #6
JCX BXC
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Twud be just like it for a storm to creep up on us in such a fashion.
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14-01-2018, 13:59   #7
Gaoth Laidir
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ECM not good for the west. 14-metre significant wave heights (so double that possible for individual waves) and winds gusting 120-130 kph. Cameras out and all off to Lahinch again...



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14-01-2018, 14:03   #8
munsterlegend
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[quote="Gaoth Laidir;105836213"]ECM not good for the west. 14-metre significant wave heights (so double that possible for individual waves) and winds gusting 120-130 kph. Cameras out and all off to Lahinch again..

Is this storm more a northern half of the country event? Or has ecm it further south?
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14-01-2018, 14:11   #9
Gaoth Laidir
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Originally Posted by munsterlegend View Post

Is this storm more a northern half of the country event? Or has ecm it further south?
It's really the tight gradient between the low well north of Scotland and the Azores high that has strong winds across the whole of Ireland.

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14-01-2018, 14:26   #10
amandstu
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Does this look like it can also cause a big surge in the English Channel? Bristol Channel?

Last edited by amandstu; 14-01-2018 at 14:38.
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14-01-2018, 16:02   #11
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The latest GFS has intensified the storm and kept it's track more or less.

More runs needed , time for change one way or the other.



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14-01-2018, 16:08   #12
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The ICON 12Z for comparison.


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14-01-2018, 16:09   #13
sdanseo
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Does this look like it can also cause a big surge in the English Channel? Bristol Channel?
Luckily for them, Ireland takes the brunt and shelters England a good bit. However depending on wind direction South Wales / Devon & Cornwall would be very much in the firing line (this is illustrated well by GFS chart posted above).

Last edited by sdanseo; 14-01-2018 at 16:15.
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14-01-2018, 16:10   #14
scooby77
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Early days I know, but what level of alert do those more informed than I think may be called by Met Eireann?
(This amateur thinking Amber, hoping not red!)
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14-01-2018, 16:16   #15
sdanseo
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Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
The ICON 12Z for comparison.
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Originally Posted by scooby77 View Post
Early days I know, but what level of alert do those more informed than I think may be called by Met Eireann?
(This amateur thinking Amber, hoping not red!)
ICON does seem to overdo winds a bit, but if that came off it would be a red warning for Donegal, Sligo, Mayo, Galway.
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