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28-12-2017, 17:34   #1
Meteorite58
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Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

The first wind warning for the weekend, bound to be more on the way, looking very lively at times. Can change the title as the weekend goes on if needed.

Met Eireann

National Weather Warnings


STATUS YELLOW


Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, North Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Southwest winds gradually veering westerly will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65km/h, with gusts between 90 and 110km/h. Winds will become strong in the southwest at first and extend northwards later in the night and tomorrow morning.

Issued:Thursday 28 December 2017 16:00
Valid:Thursday 28 December 2017 23:00 to Friday 29 December 2017 14:00


Updated Warning from Met Eireann

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for South Wexford, Galway, north Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and south Waterford
Overnight and on Friday morning, southwest winds gradually veering westerly will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65km/h, with gusts between 90 and 110km/h.

Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 00:00
Valid:Friday 29 December 2017 00:01 to Friday 29 December 2017 13:00



National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Westmeath and Meath
Storm Dylan is expected to affect Ireland on Saturday night /early Sunday morning. Its expected track is northeastwards through Donegal Bay and up along the north-Ulster coast. The biggest impact from the storm will be across Connacht and Ulster where mean winds will reach speeds of 60 to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120km/h.


Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 09:00
Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow and Offaly
West to southwest winds from Storm Dylan will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h and gusts of 90 to 110km/h later on Saturday night /Sunday morning.

Issued:Friday 29 December 2017 15:00
Valid:Saturday 30 December 2017 21:00 to Sunday 31 December 2017 06:00

Last edited by Meteorite58; 29-12-2017 at 19:15. Reason: Update warning
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28-12-2017, 17:43   #2
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The first strong winds for the weekend. The second set of winds arriving into the SW /W around 21.00 tomorrow evening set to be stronger again for more parts of the country.







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28-12-2017, 18:00   #3
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Including current model forecast winds for tomorrow night/ early Sat as set to be quite strong. From following this the last few days shows the models changing in each run , sometimes upgrading and sometimes downgrading, I would imagine that forecasters will be monitoring this closely over the weekend as could experience very strong winds in places at times. A fast moving / evolving windy spell and potentially stormy in places at times.





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28-12-2017, 18:12   #4
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Current model runs for later Sat evening into Sun morning. A difference in the models but the ECM has been showing this for a few days now in one form or the other. By the way this is the strongest they have shown it.












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28-12-2017, 18:31   #5
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12z EC ain't as strong
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28-12-2017, 18:36   #6
Meteorite58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weathercheck View Post
12z EC ain't as strong

I see that now, strongest winds off and along the coasts and in the W / NW later.






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28-12-2017, 18:50   #7
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Worth Noting .



[IStorm Forecast
Valid: Thu 28 Dec 2017 06:00 to Fri 29 Dec 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 28 Dec 2017 01:17
Forecaster: GATZEN][/I]

A level 2 was issued for southern Ireland and the northern Celtic Sea mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent tornadoes.


A powerful 65 m/s mid-level jet streak approaches over western Europe late in the period. A well-developed tropopause fold evolves and crosses the North Atlantic west of Ireland and enters the Celtic Sea. At low levels, a moist maritime air mass advects into the area with a south-westerly low-level jet. This air mass is slightly unstable given steep mid-level lapse rates that overlap with the rich moisture. Therefore, some thunderstorms are forecast along the cold front in the night and morning hours. Further north across southern Ireland and the southern Irish Sea, strong low-level stretching is expected to result in steep low-level lapse rates and weak CIN. Along the cold front, a narrow rain band could develop into a line of thunderstorms. With strong flow at lot to mid levels, severe wind gusts are forecast with this convective line. Additionally, tornadoes are not ruled out given large SRH ahead of the cold front. Severe winds further north are expected to be non-convective.



Marine Weather Warnings


STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning
1. South to southeast winds veering southwest will reach gale or strong gale force tonight on coasts from Carnsore Point to Valentia to Erris Head.

2. Southwest to West gales or strong gales on all Irish coastal waters and the Irish Sea overnight and tomorrow, with storm force winds for a time along southern and western coasts.

Issued:Thursday 28 December 2017 18:00


Jet

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29-12-2017, 00:28   #8
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Some strong winds showing up on the models running through the center of the country tomorrow morning ( not as strong in the centre of the country on the ARPEGE or ICON )









Last edited by Meteorite58; 29-12-2017 at 00:33.
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29-12-2017, 00:48   #9
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Looking like a country wide windy night Fri into Sat morning as a low tracks very close to the W of Ireland producing possible strong winds there and the NW and N. Even at this stage not fully resolved.








Last edited by Meteorite58; 29-12-2017 at 00:51. Reason: change map
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29-12-2017, 01:10   #10
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Potential wind storm Sat night/ Sun morning.

Met Eireann: Another spell of heavy rain will move into the southwest from the Atlantic Saturday evening and extend to all areas during Saturday night in strong locally gale force southwesterly winds, possibly severe, damaging winds in some western areas for a time….. please stay up to date with forecasts and warnings.





ARPEGE showing the storm well off the coast.





Last edited by Meteorite58; 29-12-2017 at 01:15. Reason: additional map
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29-12-2017, 06:26   #11
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Very windy in Cork ATM, just got woken up due to it. Lashing rain too.
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29-12-2017, 07:33   #12
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42 gust 60 knots at Mace Head at 7 am.
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29-12-2017, 08:00   #13
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EC has upped the ante, further northwest than GFS though, two major models suggesting a damaging storm event tomorrow night...

Still a wide spread in guidance at this late juncture.


GFS




EC

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29-12-2017, 08:06   #14
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There was a gust of 53kts in Cork Airport according to the 6:30am METAR.
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29-12-2017, 08:59   #15
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Taking a look at ENS postage stamps, circa 35/50 members bring notable storm close to Ireland @ 48 hours. I note there is still a wide range of tracks so very uncertain which part of the country gets a direct hit. The largest clustering is for a track similar to the Op but still a large minority bringing a direct hit to inland Ireland also.

With the event now a mere 36 hours away- it is a very difficult call, but i would expect Orange warnings to be issued this evening.
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