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08-12-2017, 04:10   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

MOD NOTE

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed - report & let the Mod team deal with it

**It would be helpful to all that when posting weather reports that locations are added in the post ( this can be kept general if preferred) **

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As requested.

Sunday will be an event for many Northern and North Western areas. With regards to other areas it's a delicate situation.

To summarise:

Rain will move in from the southwest on Saturday night but will meet embedded very cold air over the country. It will turn to snow as it moves northeastward. It's a classic "battle ground" scenario between different air masses.

It will fall as snow initially over North Leinster (it will turn back to rain for a time). Over Ulster and most of Connaught it will fall as heavy snow throughout the event. Large accumulations in these parts. I would be of the opinion at least an orange warning is needed for these parts as of now - possibly red nearer the time.

Later on Sunday as the system begins to unwind and move away it returns to snow over Leinster and turns to snow in Munster with accumulations here. Not as significant but could still be disruptive.

As it clears it gets very cold and icy - another hazard in itself. Temperatures will plunge Sunday night well below freezing. Coldest night of the year so far.

This looks a severe event in the north and northwest including northern Connaught right now.

There is still the risk of significant snow further south as well. This is not 100% nailed in terms of where this will effect. Regardless many are going to see a significant snowfall.

I think it is safe to say this will be the most significant frontal snow event the country has seen in many years for the areas effected.

This is 48 hours out. There is no doubt it will be impactful.

Another risk is flooding, a lot of water associated with this.

I would advise people in the north and northwest - and Connaught - to keep up to date on forecasts and be prepared.

Last edited by Lumi; 10-12-2017 at 01:27. Reason: Add Mod Note
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08-12-2017, 05:55   #2
nacho libre
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I'll believe it when i see it. It has all gone pear shaped before with less than 48 hours ago for frontal snow on lower ground. It's likely some snow will fall over much of Ulster and high ground in Connacht. Mountainy man might be snowed in!

Last edited by nacho libre; 08-12-2017 at 06:23.
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08-12-2017, 06:30   #3
M.T. Cranium
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I was thinking along these same lines, kermit, looking at the guidance this "morning" and my take will be somewhat similar although I could see how this slides southeast rather quickly and delivers more to the inland southeast perhaps?

Just looking at various guidance to see the spread, have not reached forecast stage yet but certainly as you say potentially a disruptive snow and ice event. Winds come around to northeast for some time Sunday night also, surface direction likely to be a bit too northerly for major streamer action but everything on a knife edge despite being 48-72h out.
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08-12-2017, 08:05   #4
KingdomRushed
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A lot of movement still possible for this feature, latest updates from HIRLAM and ECM are taking the precipitation further south again meaning Midlands more at risk than the north if it does fall as snow. If the trend south continues precipitation could be light even in north Leinster.
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08-12-2017, 08:18   #5
dmcsweeney
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Is this even likely to effect south west Munster?
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Dave
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08-12-2017, 08:42   #6
Kermit.de.frog
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Yes, the ECM takes it a little further south meaning snow more generally and less for the far north.

An event for most but for those on the east coast or in Dublin i'd be wary of that onshore breeze - a sleety mix or rain seems favored here. Later Sunday I think the snow line gets to the coast.
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08-12-2017, 08:43   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmcsweeney View Post
Is this even likely to effect south west Munster?
Thanks,
Dave
Later Sunday, yes there could well be snow.
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08-12-2017, 08:48   #8
Snowbiee21
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@kermit I would still say plemty of changes !
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08-12-2017, 08:56   #9
dmcsweeney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
Later Sunday, yes there could well be snow.
Thanks! I'm cutting a hole in the external kitchen wall for new doors so I can pretty much guarantee the worst snow since 2010
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08-12-2017, 09:11   #10
munsterlegend
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
Later Sunday, yes there could well be snow.
I very much doubt it in Munster particularly the south west.
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08-12-2017, 09:15   #11
Kermit.de.frog
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I very much doubt it in Munster particularly the south west.
Most favored when winds go Northeasterly.
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08-12-2017, 09:15   #12
kod87
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Quote:
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Is this even likely to effect south west Munster?
Thanks,
Dave
very very unlikely to affect any part of Munster especially the SW fringes

Last edited by kod87; 08-12-2017 at 09:37.
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08-12-2017, 09:36   #13
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It'll almost certainly be rain in the southern half of the country, too early to tell whether the north will be affected. Current guidance showing snow over Ulster but I can't recall a single Atlantic battleground snow event in my lifetime so naturally I'm a bit skeptical
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08-12-2017, 09:42   #14
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GFS ups stakes, further south, a lot more in play. Leinster, Connaught and south Ulster in the firing line. Munster later.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 08-12-2017 at 09:46.
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08-12-2017, 09:43   #15
dmcsweeney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kod87 View Post
very very unlikely to affect any part of Munster especially the SW fringes
Sorry, south west may be a bit misleading. I'm between Macroom and Ballyvouney at about 200mASL. Still out of luck I guess though!
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