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29-08-2017, 19:35   #1
sryanbruen
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Autumn 2017 - General Discussion

Three more days 'til meteorological Autumn begins... something many people are tending to forget .

This is my official Autumn 2017 forecast:

As you know, I do early thoughts or predictions for the coming year in December every year. These were my Autumn 2017 predictions I set in December 2016:

September - Fairly cool, wet and sunny.
October - Very wet, stormy and mild.
November - Another very sunny November but wet and mild.

Looking back on them, I still agree 100% with myself up to this point. This is what I think Autumn 2017 is going to turn out like in terms of monthly conditions. For the Autumn as a whole, I put down a mild and very wet one much like Autumns such as 1998 or 2006.

Now there's a reason behind why I'm predicting this Autumn to be comparable in some ways to Autumn 2006. If you look at the Solar Cycle SN progression chart from NOAA, you'll see that Autumn 2017 lines up with the SN and stage the Solar Cycle was in of Autumn 2006. Winter 2016/17 & 2005/06 were very similar in many aspects. It was actually very scary how similar they were haha. One of their similarities was solar activity. November 2016 & 2005 were also very similar. Autumn 2006 was the warmest on record with also the warmest September on record. But here for Autumn 2017, I'm predicting a fairly cool September. Why is this so if I'm saying that Autumn 2017 will be similar to Autumn 2006? Well, you'll never find a full repeat of a season again so I thought September would be different with Autumn 2017 compared to Autumn 2006. Also, September 2016 was very warm and unless Mother Nature pulls a move like December 2015 & 2016 where both months are very mild, I think Nature will like to balance itself out with that September of last year. I'm only going for a fairly cool September so close to average temperatures on the negative side - nothing significant. The CFSv2 is also showing Northern Blocking for September.

As the Autumn is going to be similar to 2006 from my predictions, it's going to be a very wet Autumn. Autumn 2016 was very dry and the driest Autumn since 2007. Wet Autumns tend to be much more common nowadays and I feel that we're due a wet Autumn. I feel October in particular will be a stormy month. We had two consecutive very anticyclonic Octobers in 2015 & 2016. You'd think we'd be due a wet one by now.

There is not a single model going for a cool Autumn. They're all showing a mild one with the majority showing a wet, unsettled one.

As for the chance of November snow, I don't think it's going to happen. Last year had snow in places and I think Nature is going to balance itself out this year with none. Beware that there are some indications going for the chance of November snow such as the CanSIPS showing a very negative NAO with a trough to the southeast of England bringing the winds down from the north. As I said though, I don't think it's going to happen. Please to god hope that Nature will prove me wrong!

So my final thoughts are that Autumn 2017 will be a very wet, stormy and mild one with the earlier part of the Autumn being rather cool but warming up quickly as we go on through it.
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29-08-2017, 20:36   #2
Mars Bar
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I am so ****ing cold after being in Croatia last week. Just as well I'm moving to kuwait next week I guess!
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29-08-2017, 20:41   #3
Clonmel1000
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It's felt like autumn since August 1st I'm not kidding.
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29-08-2017, 20:49   #4
Sean 18
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Yes feels like autumn today but I remember the start of autumn 1991 was very warns and sunny think it even passed out the summer that year bar may 1991
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29-08-2017, 20:53   #5
sryanbruen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean 18 View Post
Yes feels like autumn today but I remember the start of autumn 1991 was very warns and sunny think it even passed out the summer that year bar may 1991
Yes, the warmest day of 1991 was September 5th.
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30-08-2017, 11:02   #6
cute geoge
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I remember autumn 1991 well as i started in collage and beautiful month of september and into october .one hardy buck only wore a t shirt morning ,noon and night up to mid term break .I wondered did he even own a jumper !!!!
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30-08-2017, 14:15   #7
MJohnston
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Last night was the first it's really felt like autumn for me - very very chilly. To be honest, I welcomed it as a couple of nights before were miserably warm in the house.
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01-09-2017, 00:11   #8
Meteorite58
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Just noticing the latest GFS run seems to be upgrading the wind strengths a bit on the coasts Sat into Sun

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01-09-2017, 13:43   #9
 
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Nice start to the autumn here in Laois. Hard to believe it's September!
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01-09-2017, 15:10   #10
km79
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The last 3 days have been better than any 3 day spell during summer
Pity next week looks so wet
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01-09-2017, 15:28   #11
Oneiric 3
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Got down to 4c here this morning, but back to that sickly feeling, windless warmth since late morning. This summer feels so endlessly endless.

Roll on October.
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01-09-2017, 15:39   #12
Jpmarn
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Metrological Autumn begins today but the Calendar Autumn began on the 1st of August. It looks that some of the trees are looking autumnal for the last couple of week. It is probably the rather cool weather we had to put up with the final month of the metrological summer.
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01-09-2017, 16:03   #13
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STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kilkenny, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Tipperary and Waterford
Heavy rain developing in the West Saturday afternoon will spread Eastwards during the evening and continue for a time overnight.

Issued:Friday 01 September 2017 10:00
Valid:Saturday 02 September 2017 15:00 to Sunday 03 September 2017 06:00

-----------------

Lovely
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01-09-2017, 17:22   #14
Meteorite58
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The latest rainfall accumulation prediction from the GFS. Galway, Clare, Kerry, Waterford and Cork look like getting the most rainfall on this run. Wind at this stage should not be too strong.



The AROME showing very high rainfall totals on mountains in Galway, Kerry and Cork by 8.00 Sun


Last edited by Meteorite58; 01-09-2017 at 17:30. Reason: additional chart
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01-09-2017, 18:20   #15
Meteorite58
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Plenty of moisture being fed into the atmosphere from the US . I see there could be a lot of rain around next Thurs and Fri. Totals are going to be high for the first week of Sept.

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/s...63848078663681
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