Three more days 'til meteorological Autumn begins... something many people are tending to forget .
This is my official Autumn 2017 forecast:
As you know, I do early thoughts or predictions for the coming year in December every year. These were my Autumn 2017 predictions I set in December 2016:
September - Fairly cool, wet and sunny.
October - Very wet, stormy and mild.
November - Another very sunny November but wet and mild.
Looking back on them, I still agree 100% with myself up to this point. This is what I think Autumn 2017 is going to turn out like in terms of monthly conditions. For the Autumn as a whole, I put down a mild and very wet one much like Autumns such as 1998 or 2006.
Now there's a reason behind why I'm predicting this Autumn to be comparable in some ways to Autumn 2006. If you look at the Solar Cycle SN progression chart from NOAA, you'll see that Autumn 2017 lines up with the SN and stage the Solar Cycle was in of Autumn 2006. Winter 2016/17 & 2005/06 were very similar in many aspects. It was actually very scary how similar they were haha. One of their similarities was solar activity. November 2016 & 2005 were also very similar. Autumn 2006 was the warmest on record with also the warmest September on record. But here for Autumn 2017, I'm predicting a fairly cool September. Why is this so if I'm saying that Autumn 2017 will be similar to Autumn 2006? Well, you'll never find a full repeat of a season again so I thought September would be different with Autumn 2017 compared to Autumn 2006. Also, September 2016 was very warm and unless Mother Nature pulls a move like December 2015 & 2016 where both months are very mild, I think Nature will like to balance itself out with that September of last year. I'm only going for a fairly cool September so close to average temperatures on the negative side - nothing significant. The CFSv2 is also showing Northern Blocking for September.
As the Autumn is going to be similar to 2006 from my predictions, it's going to be a very wet Autumn. Autumn 2016 was very dry and the driest Autumn since 2007. Wet Autumns tend to be much more common nowadays and I feel that we're due a wet Autumn. I feel October in particular will be a stormy month. We had two consecutive very anticyclonic Octobers in 2015 & 2016. You'd think we'd be due a wet one by now.
There is not a single model going for a cool Autumn. They're all showing a mild one with the majority showing a wet, unsettled one.
As for the chance of November snow, I don't think it's going to happen. Last year had snow in places and I think Nature is going to balance itself out this year with none. Beware that there are some indications going for the chance of November snow such as the CanSIPS showing a very negative NAO with a trough to the southeast of England bringing the winds down from the north. As I said though, I don't think it's going to happen. Please to god hope that Nature will prove me wrong!
So my final thoughts are that Autumn 2017 will be a very wet, stormy and mild one with the earlier part of the Autumn being rather cool but warming up quickly as we go on through it.