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14-08-2017, 19:39   #1
Stephen15
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Go-Ahead to operate 10% of DB routes

So since the last thread on this got closed and dosen't appear to be reopening any time soon. Heres a new one for you.
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15-08-2017, 17:15   #2
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Devnull had made a point about the bus infrastructure being owned mostly by one single operator in Dublin; I assume that would be Dublin Bus & not the NTA. Is this correct? Will this infrastructure include the 3 bus termini outside the DART Stations at Bray, Dun Laoghaire & Blackrock where some of the affected routes in these locations will be in a process of switching over to GA; or will they co-exist in the same terminus?

I have heard that this decision from the NTA last Thursday is not going to change the number of buses & drivers presently working at Dublin Bus. It is highly likely now that the NTA may have to order at least 125 brand new buses for GA from next year or GA themselves will probably have to transfer some of their current bus fleet in the UK to run their services in Dublin. I am not sure what scenario is going to work best for these routes between GA & the NTA. I hope that I don't this point wrong but if GA had come across issues relating to any of their vehicles bought after 2019 for not passing EU Regulations after the UK leaves the EU. GA would probably not be allowed to bring buses into Ireland until they pass EU Regulations here. Another scenario is that the NTA will have to order new buses for GA; we don't know what manufacturer are going to make them yet. We also don't know from the NTA the expected number of single & double deckers coming in for GA.

We should also think about what GA routes are going to be suitable for single deckers & double deckers or possibly both if it is necessary. If I was thinking to have routes to have all double deckers on the southside; I'd say that the 17, 45a, 75 & 175 should have double deckers at all times because their journey times are currently far too long to get from a to b. For single deckers; I would suggest that the 59, 111, 161 would get them as the current length of these routes are not suitable for double deckers at all as they are far too short to make them viable. Double deckers also have a high incidence of dead running for large portions of their route if they aren't enough passengers using them. I would prefer having a mixed fleet of buses on the 114 especially during peak times on weekdays when students are using them to get to school or college during the day. Commuters would need to the use the 114 to get to or from work via Blackrock DART Station in that period. It would also be sensible to allow the 114 have single deckers operate the route all day for Saturday & maybe Sunday/Bank Holiday schedules if that was approved from the NTA within the year.

Last edited by dublinman1990; 15-08-2017 at 17:18.
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15-08-2017, 17:25   #3
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Originally Posted by dublinman1990 View Post
I have heard that this decision from the NTA last Thursday is not going to change the number of buses & drivers presently working at Dublin Bus. It is highly likely now that the NTA may have to order at least 125 brand new buses for GA from next year or GA themselves will probably have to transfer some of their current bus fleet in the UK to run their services in Dublin.
It seems that the last tender for new buses from the NTA this year was for 300 new buses over the next 18 months. This surprised many people as it is double the number that would normally be ordered over that period (150) and in fact the largest tender ever.

Now I'm not sure what happened with the reward of that tender. However it would explain where the extra 125 buses for Go Ahead are going to come from, plus another 25 extra buses for Dublin Bus.

It would also explain why two streetlite single deckers have recently arrived.
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15-08-2017, 17:44   #4
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What we know is that
- The NTA will order and own all vehicles ordered for all PSO operators
- Dublin Bus will withdraw 72 buses this year (70xAV + 2xWV)
- They will get 102 new deliveries (100xSG + 2x Streetlite)
- GoAhead will operate 125 vehicles
- No Dublin Bus Drivers will lose their jobs
- The 10% of routes will have mileage increased by 35%
- Remaining Dublin Bus routes will be expanded

As for where the 125 buses come from, it could be all new orders to be delivered in 2018, it could be all transfered from Dublin Bus with all the 2018 orders going to Dublin Bus, or it could be a mixture of both, unfortunately the details are not known right at this moment.

However it is expected that next years order of buses by the NTA will be higher than the 102 that will be delivered this year.
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15-08-2017, 18:14   #5
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It seems that the last tender for new buses from the NTA this year was for 300 new buses over the next 18 months. This surprised many people as it is double the number that would normally be ordered over that period (150) and in fact the largest tender ever.

Now I'm not sure what happened with the reward of that tender. However it would explain where the extra 125 buses for Go Ahead are going to come from, plus another 25 extra buses for Dublin Bus.

It would also explain why two streetlite single deckers have recently arrived.
The Streetlites are for the 44b to replace the WVs and have been spec'd in detail by DB for that route.

Tenders for new buses have always included potential for increased numbers of vehicles as at the time they seek potential suppliers they won't know what funding government will allow. They might get more money, they might not. So they hedge their bets.

It's only the number of buses on any contract award that is relevant.

So if tenders were issued for 300 buses, that doesn't mean 300 will be delivered.
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15-08-2017, 18:23   #6
Stephen15
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Originally Posted by dublinman1990 View Post
Devnull had made a point about the bus infrastructure being owned mostly by one single operator in Dublin; I assume that would be Dublin Bus & not the NTA. Is this correct? Will this infrastructure include the 3 bus termini outside the DART Stations at Bray, Dun Laoghaire & Blackrock where some of the affected routes in these locations will be in a process of switching over to GA; or will they co-exist in the same terminus?

I have heard that this decision from the NTA last Thursday is not going to change the number of buses & drivers presently working at Dublin Bus. It is highly likely now that the NTA may have to order at least 125 brand new buses for GA from next year or GA themselves will probably have to transfer some of their current bus fleet in the UK to run their services in Dublin. I am not sure what scenario is going to work best for these routes between GA & the NTA. I hope that I don't this point wrong but if GA had come across issues relating to any of their vehicles bought after 2019 for not passing EU Regulations after the UK leaves the EU. GA would probably not be allowed to bring buses into Ireland until they pass EU Regulations here. Another scenario is that the NTA will have to order new buses for GA; we don't know what manufacturer are going to make them yet. We also don't know from the NTA the expected number of single & double deckers coming in for GA.

We should also think about what GA routes are going to be suitable for single deckers & double deckers or possibly both if it is necessary. If I was thinking to have routes to have all double deckers on the southside; I'd say that the 17, 45a, 75 & 175 should have double deckers at all times because their journey times are currently far too long to get from a to b. For single deckers; I would suggest that the 59, 111, 161 would get them as the current length of these routes are not suitable for double deckers at all as they are far too short to make them viable. Double deckers also have a high incidence of dead running for large portions of their route if they aren't enough passengers using them. I would prefer having a mixed fleet of buses on the 114 especially during peak times on weekdays when students are using them to get to school or college during the day. Commuters would need to the use the 114 to get to or from work via Blackrock DART Station in that period. It would also be sensible to allow the 114 have single deckers operate the route all day for Saturday & maybe Sunday/Bank Holiday schedules if that was approved from the NTA within the year.
DB does own nearly all shelters and stop with the exception of a number of shelters owned by DCC. However this is currently in the process of transfering over to the NTA. All current DB stops will be replaced by NTA owned stops. So I would imagine that places like Dun Laoghaire and Bray would co exist with the DB services just like in London where bus termini are shared between TFL operators. The NTA are replacing DB as the primary provider of bus transport in Dublin.

The NTA will own all buses afaik just like they own the GT and SG class buses currently operated by DB. Go-Ahead's current UK fleet would not be suitable only London Buses would be suitable as they would have to meet the NTA's specification which would include having middle doors as only London buses have them. I would imagine London Buses are operating at capacity anyway so only older vehicles would be transferred which would not meet the NTA's specification.

Out of the routes going to be tendered out I reckon that only the 17, 17a, 18, 75 and 76 actually require double deckers the rest could be covered by single deckers at all times. A mixture of differant types of single deckers could be used some a similar size to the old KC and VA class and others a similar size to the City Imp minibuses or WV class buses.

Just remember that GA have only won the tender no contracts or other formal agreements have been signed. GA could very well pull out and DB could remain operating these services. Another possibility is DB could take legal action against the NTA.

When and if the routes are transferred to GA I would imagine that DB will have to try to grow their commercial services such as Airlink, Tours and Xpresso.
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15-08-2017, 18:32   #7
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There will be no buses coming from London, all buses operated by GoAhead will be owned and acquired and remain assets of the NTA and operators will not be using their own buses they purchase themselves,.

In London most people don't even know there are many different operators of services because of the fact they are so tightly intergrated that there is no noticeable difference between any of them apart from a small logo on the bus.
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15-08-2017, 18:47   #8
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Five years down the line, Go Ahead complain that they can't make any money under a 'restrictive' fare system and that they're considering pulling out entirely unless they're allow to increase fares at their discretion and reduce their employees wages. This is the first step to a British-style privatsation by stealth.
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15-08-2017, 18:49   #9
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Five years down the line, Go Ahead complain that they can't make any money under a 'restrictive' fare system and that they're considering pulling out entirely unless they're allow to increase fares at their discretion and reduce their employees wages. This is the first step to a British-style privatsation by stealth.
GoAhead do not set the fares and they do not keep money from the fares, they are paid a set fee from the NTA and this is the model that Dublin Bus will be moving to in the near future as well.
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15-08-2017, 18:52   #10
Stephen15
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GoAhead do not set the fares and they do not keep money from the fares, they are paid a set fee from the NTA and this is the model that Dublin Bus will be moving to in the near future as well.
I thought DB had already moved to that model. Anyway the tender for the remaining DB routes is up in 2019 so it will be intresting to see what happens.
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15-08-2017, 18:54   #11
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I thought DB had already moved to that model. Anyway the tender for the remaining DB routes is up in 2019 so it will be intresting to see what happens.
Not until the next PSO contract award.
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15-08-2017, 18:57   #12
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GoAhead do not set the fares and they do not keep money from the fares, they are paid a set fee from the NTA and this is the model that Dublin Bus will be moving to in the near future as well.
Exactly and that will be their pretext to demand they're allowed to set their own fares, which will unsurprisingly rocket.

We'll see how Dublin Bus go, but I'd imagine they'll resist it strongly.
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15-08-2017, 19:00   #13
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Exactly and that will be their pretext to demand they're allowed to set their own fares, which will unsurprisingly rocket.
Dublin Bus have spent the last few years demanding certain fares and they have never got them because the NTA has often not sanctioned the increases that DB have been looking for, so I don't think it will be any different here.

It's the same system as in London and it's never happened there.
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15-08-2017, 19:56   #14
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Exactly and that will be their pretext to demand they're allowed to set their own fares, which will unsurprisingly rocket.

We'll see how Dublin Bus go, but I'd imagine they'll resist it strongly.
You don't understand the system at all

If they find it impossible to operate on the fixed payments, they can pull out. They are not and will not ever have the ability to set their own fares.

The farebox (cash, Leap, share of multi operator tickets, whatever) is an irrelevance to them and will remain so
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15-08-2017, 22:06   #15
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Aaaaaargh. The farebox point again.

Quote:
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GoAhead do not set the fares and they do not keep money from the fares, they are paid a set fee from the NTA and this is the model that Dublin Bus will be moving to in the near future as well.
and if they decide the set fare given to them is not enough?

Will this "but it's not about the farebox" argument ever please die?

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You don't understand the system at all.

If they find it impossible to operate on the fixed payments, they can pull out. They are not and will not ever have the ability to set their own fares.

The farebox (cash, Leap, share of multi operator tickets, whatever) is an irrelevance to them and will remain so
Ah, so that's alright then, they can just pull out. No problems with that at all so, no need to worry about finding an operator for routes that were not wanted this time round.

Last edited by dfx-; 15-08-2017 at 22:11.
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