Storm Ewan - Strong winds South and South East coasts Sunday February 26th.

IMBACKLATER · 25-02-2017 11:08PM #1

Extremely windy on Sunday, especially across southern and eastern counties.
Southwest winds associated with Storm Ewan, will be fresh to strong and very gusty,
with some severe and damaging gusts along south and southeast coasts.
Becoming wet too, with widespread heavy rain and localised flooding.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford
Storm Ewan: Southerly winds veering southwesterly will reach gust speeds of 110 to 120km/h
along southern and southeastern coastal counties from early tomorrow Sunday until early afternoon.

Issued:Saturday 25 February 2017 19:44
Valid:Sunday 26 February 2017 06:00 to Sunday 26 February 2017 15:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Louth,
Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary
Storm Ewan: South to southwesterly winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h
with gusts of 90 to 110km/h at times from Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon.

Issued:Saturday 25 February 2017 22:00
Valid:Sunday 26 February 2017 06:00 to Sunday 26 February 2017 15:00

Mars Bar · 25-02-2017 11:15PM

The one time I'm going south has to be during a storm! :mad:

Gaoth Laidir · 25-02-2017 11:20PM

sparrowcar · 25-02-2017 11:23PM

This one crept in under the radar a bit with all the attention Doris received. Gusting 48kts tomorrow at Dublin airport with a crosswind between 200-240 degrees will cause some disruption. Large volume of French fans heading home so the airport is going to be jammed anyway.

Now just wait for JCX BXC to say there won't be disruption tomorrow....

screengrab

Gaoth Laidir · 25-02-2017 11:30PM

But no model is showing any low pressure centre forming west of Ireland tomorrow and moving northeastwards through the UK. Yes some moderately strong winds (110 kph) along the coast and Irish Sea but I can't see more than 120 kph being registered on a land station (except maybe Aberdaron, which is on a 200 m cliff on the Welsh coast).

Meteorite58 · 25-02-2017 11:59PM

Looking at the ARPEGE 18z rolling out and I think there is a substantial upgrade on winds along southern coasts and I would think that Wexford will get the strongest winds for a time.

Gaoth Laidir · 26-02-2017 12:30AM

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Looking at the ARPEGE 18z rolling out and I think there is a substantial upgrade on winds along southern coasts and I would think that Wexford will get the strongest winds for a time.

Max gusts from between now and Monday morning...

JCX BXC · 26-02-2017 01:23AM

Go check the aviation forum Sparrowcar. That crosswind will likely come off if the forecasts occur as they are forecast

I also give my word that if winds had stayed as forecast during Doris there would have been minor disruption.

That should be the end of the matter, Gaoth Laidir was completely correct in the situation the other day and they have not mentioned it since. That can only be seen as respect, something which can be lacking on boards in general with users desperately trying to one up eachother.

/Rant.

I notice Met Eireann have added counties to both warnings, has there been some last minute upgrades to Ewan too?

M.T. Cranium · 26-02-2017 02:00AM

All available guidance suggests this will be a level one event, not sure how it gets level two billing, at least over land in Ireland, but the key word here is available, maybe in-house they have something different. Anyway, I won't bite until I see the isobars closer than the 18z Arpege, that looks 40G55 at worst.

sparrowcar · 26-02-2017 02:17AM

JCX BXC wrote: »

Go check the aviation forum Sparrowcar. That crosswind will likely come off if the forecasts occur as they are forecast

I also give my word that if winds had stayed as forecast during Doris there would have been minor disruption.

That should be the end of the matter, Gaoth Laidir was completely correct in the situation the other day and they have not mentioned it since. That can only be seen as respect, something which can be lacking on boards in general with users desperately trying to one up eachother.

/Rant.

I notice Met Eireann have added counties to both warnings, has there been some last minute upgrades to Ewan too?

Wow really? It was a joke.
It must have hit you pretty bad being so wrong about Doris. I was not one of the ones trying to "one up" you or anyone else if you look back at our interactions. I just correctly called you out on your prediction of no disruption.

/Response

Anyway with that crosswind component and expected gusts there will be disruptions tomorrow.

Green Peter · 26-02-2017 02:21AM

Met Eireann just cannot be taken seriously, they are all over the shop, reminds me of the boy who called wolf. Some day it will really come and we wont take them seriously!

kneemos · 26-02-2017 03:14AM

Green Peter wrote: »

Met Eireann just cannot be taken seriously, they are all over the shop, reminds me of the boy who called wolf. Some day it will really come and we wont take them seriously!

Don't know why they don't just cog off the BBC,they'd be way more accurate.

pauldry · 26-02-2017 03:15AM

Doris was like a burglar

She took a tree from us

A day later I noticed she took a gate

This Ewan will get 60knots in Wexford

Came out of nowhere

Thats why weather is the best thing in life

cyclops999 · 26-02-2017 05:58AM

Flying into Dublin after 22:00hrs this evening will Ewan have blown through at that stage TIA

Graces7 · 26-02-2017 06:16AM

No mention of Galway.... again.. ah well, we will as the old adage goes, hope for the best and prepare for the worst... worked great for Doris.

Glad to have expertise here; thank you!

M.T. Cranium · 26-02-2017 07:31AM

Still a very lethargic performance by models in terms of showing any real gradient here, whereas with Doris there were some models with accurate depictions of a very strong gradient at least 24 hours in advance.

The only minor indication I could find was that K2 buoy southwest of Valentia reported 32 knots.

The upper flow is very strong but what seems to be lacking is any particular energy centre to deepen the surface gradient. I'm going to mention the potential for this in the forecast but I wouldn't be greatly surprised if there was no level two wind event.

However, if I see something that changes my mind before 10:30 then I'll report back on that.

Gaoth Laidir · 26-02-2017 07:37AM

Waterford airport is right on the coast, just behind Tramore beach. Its TAF has max winds of 30 gusting 50 knots. Winds of 65 knots at 2000 ft.

TAF EIWF 260500Z 2606/2615 21023G35KT 9999 BKN015 BECMG 2606/2609 20028G42KT -RA BKN010 BECMG 2610/2612 20035G50KT TEMPO 2610/2613 4000 RA BKN005 BECMG 2614/2615 25022G36KT 9999 SCT018 BKN020=

Gaoth Laidir · 26-02-2017 08:20AM

Casement TAF going for 52-kt gusts this afternoon. Dublin still 48 knots.

mickger844posts · 26-02-2017 08:20AM

Winds picking up a bit here now with gusts to 45 km/h

Two live streaming cams from Waterford on my website here

www.waterfordcityweather.com/wxstream.php

JCX BXC · 26-02-2017 08:31AM

Extremely heavy rain here in West Clare, 17mm since 7am with flash floods, the rain was so heavy there was even hail in it. Very unexpected, but quite dangerous, especially for drivers.

Graces7 · 26-02-2017 09:02AM

Heavy hard deluges up here this last while and still falling without a pause. Mountains are shrouded.

Stream is buoyant and full bodied.

West Connemara; 400 ft asl

JCX BXC · 26-02-2017 09:26AM

Another heavy deluge here in West Clare, rain rate 31.2mm/h, setting off more alarms on weather station (got up to 101mm/h for a short time earlier setting off plenty of alarms).

Rain is so heavy currently visibility is reduced to fog like and there is alot of water around

Edit: And again, more hail and extremely heavy rain.

Darwin · 26-02-2017 09:27AM

On the met.ie short range hourly forecast, there is a visible small low of 986Hpa forming around 11am and centered over Clare. It moves off in a north east direction deepening all the while, perhaps that explains the weather warnings? You can also view the wind profile on a separate tab, and it looks pretty strong too, at least to the same level as Doris for my part of the world (Laois), which gave 54 knots or so.

RoisinD · 26-02-2017 09:46AM

JCX BXC wrote: »

Another heavy deluge here in West Clare, rain rate 31.2mm/h, setting off more alarms on weather station (got up to 101mm/h for a short time earlier setting off plenty of alarms).

Rain is so heavy currently visibility is reduced to fog like and there is alot of water around

Edit: And again, more hail and extremely heavy rain.

Agree, whatever about a wind event it is certainly a rain event in Clare. The rain has been relentless for the past few hours with extremely long and heavy bursts. Road flooding and field flooding already with more to come, looking at radar.
NWClare

JCX BXC · 26-02-2017 10:00AM

Looks like a bit of a squall line developing on a line from Tralee through Ennis to Ballinasloe.

Yet another deluge of monsoon rain here in West Clare, rainfall so far today already accounts for 30% of my monthly total and looks like there is alot more to come!

mickger844posts · 26-02-2017 10:01AM

Sun has actually come out here in Waterford. Max gust thus far 56km/ h

www.waterfordcityweather.com

JCX BXC · 26-02-2017 10:05AM

mickger844posts wrote: »

Sun has actually come out here in Waterford. Max gust thus far 56km/ h

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Just as you post it increases to 67km/h!

Great to have the live webcam (as opposed to webcams that update say every minute), I can see the streetlight shaking!

Graces7 · 26-02-2017 10:05AM

RoisinD wrote: »

Agree, whatever about a wind event it is certainly a rain event in Clare. The rain has been relentless for the past few hours with extremely long and heavy bursts. Road flooding and field flooding already with more to come, looking at radar.
NWClare

Here too in West Connemara. No idea what conditions are down on the roads but deluge still not let up at all... Been hours now. The track down to the main road will be awash as the mountain streams traverse it.

Meteorite58 · 26-02-2017 10:11AM

Winds which weren't that strong have died off atm in Tralee. 7mm rainfall so far

Don't have access to A computer atm , on the phone, but having reviewed the previous model runs and the latest it would appear that yes this looks more like level 1 type wind event as others have pointed out. Strong winds on S and SE coasts with winds coming inland a bit in Waterford and especially Wexford about mid day. Fast moving, strongest wins should be moved on from about 15.00 - 16.00.

JCX BXC · 26-02-2017 10:24AM

And all of a sudden, the rain has stopped and the sun has peaked out! West Clare.

26mm today so far.

mickger844posts · 26-02-2017 10:43AM

JCX BXC wrote: »

Just as you post it increases to 67km/h!

Great to have the live webcam (as opposed to webcams that update say every minute), I can see the streetlight shaking!

Glad you like it, yes on the right of the image you can see the street lights shaking. Should be an interesting few hours ahead.

www.waterfordcityweather.com/wxstream.php

Edit: For those watching, the YouTube stream is facing East so wind blowing from the right of the screen. Other stream is facing SW.

Storm Ewan - Strong winds South and South East coasts Sunday February 26th.

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