uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
Thread Tools Search this Thread
06-01-2016, 19:19   #1
Registered User
Sleety_Rain's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 11,377
Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

After some slight disagreement yesterday, the Numerical Weather Models in the last 24 hours have become increasingly aligned and all signal at a significant cold spell, the first of the winter, and perhaps the most substantial cold incursion for a few years.

This evenings EC suite is mouth-watering and builds on strong Ensemble support on the 00z output.

There is now cross-model support for a cold spell, with the key building blocks taking place from around 120hrs.

All major global NWP models are aligned..




Further ahead

It seems nailed on we will enter a spell of around 5 days of cold weather with wintry showers and harsh frosts.

Some models want to prolong the cold incursion further and feed in an unstable north-easterly flow, extending the cold spell into what could be a potentially major mid-winter freeze.

EC @ 240hrs

To conclude:

So a major change on the way, time to get your winter clothing sorted and ensure fuel supplies are plentiful.

The good news is it will be much drier and generally much brighter with good periods of sunshine likely. But as the cold spell extends there is the increasing chance of a widespread snow-event.

Snow-fall distribution, heights etc, to be ironed out in the coming days, as the synoptic will evolve in the coming days.

Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 06-01-2016 at 19:24.
Sleety_Rain is offline  
06-01-2016, 19:21   #2
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,104
When MT comes on board I'll be excira
Eugene Norman is offline  
(3) thanks from:
06-01-2016, 19:22   #3
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 2,020
I wonder will flooded areas freeze over?
JanuarySnowstor is online now  
Thanks from:
06-01-2016, 19:22   #4
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 4,731
I've been waiting for that thread title since..... Well 2010!
pad199207 is offline  
06-01-2016, 19:31   #5
clever user name
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 505
Originally Posted by Clonmel1000 View Post
A decent shot of what though? Its January after the warmest December on record. Any significant drop in temperatures is going to seem cold relatively speaking. We are talking about Friday week? Very early days.
Yes of course, it is early days. And the models will probably change to some extent. But what they are showing right now is prolonged (proper) wintry weather. I haven't seen winter charts like these since 2010. Even more unusual to have all the major models agreeing with each other (slight differences of course).
Nothing set in stone though. Could just end up in short cold snap.
clever user name is offline  
06-01-2016, 19:34   #6
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 4,590
Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
I wonder will flooded areas freeze over?
Would be some nightmare if they were left with 6" thick frozen ice around the outside of the house and all the water underneath drained away.
elastico is offline  
(4) thanks from:
06-01-2016, 19:40   #7
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,768
AO forecast to drop off the scale...

BLIZZARD7 is offline  
06-01-2016, 19:41   #8
Registered User
maquiladora's Avatar
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,117
That's it jinxed now!
maquiladora is offline  
06-01-2016, 19:42   #9
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 5,104
Originally Posted by leahyl View Post
Not being a debbie downer but some of the charts I've seen just now are for a week away! Surely there's a big chance of these changing again....?!
In order to enjoy the weather forum when there's a potential cold spell you've got to learn to love the models as much as the reality.

Last edited by Eugene Norman; 06-01-2016 at 19:47.
Eugene Norman is offline  
(4) thanks from:
06-01-2016, 19:46   #10
Registered User
gally74's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,747
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
That's it jinxed now!
What's that ????mageddon word?
gally74 is offline  
Thanks from:
06-01-2016, 19:47   #11
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 13,055
Isn't the timing pretty bang on with MTs early season winter weather prediction? Damn he's good!
Tabnabs is online now  
06-01-2016, 19:49   #12
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,164
Hmmm,interesting.So is it due to hit in 120hrs?
magentis is offline  
06-01-2016, 19:51   #13
Registered User
weisses's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 8,030
Thread okay ... But to stick a level 1 on it so far out
weisses is offline  
(2) thanks from:
06-01-2016, 19:53   #14
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 2,455
Originally Posted by magentis View Post
Hmmm,interesting.So is it due to hit in 120hrs?
Well don't expect to wake up to a foot of snow in 5 days time but if this thing holds together, are you ready for conditions to arrive that would over a few days as it goes on and sets in increase the likelihood of snow (a lot)?
WheatenBriar is offline  
Thanks from:
06-01-2016, 19:56   #15
Registered User
Assetbacked's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 2,333
Hardly a major change; it's already so cold!
Assetbacked is offline  
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search