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06-01-2016, 19:19   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

After some slight disagreement yesterday, the Numerical Weather Models in the last 24 hours have become increasingly aligned and all signal at a significant cold spell, the first of the winter, and perhaps the most substantial cold incursion for a few years.

This evenings EC suite is mouth-watering and builds on strong Ensemble support on the 00z output.

There is now cross-model support for a cold spell, with the key building blocks taking place from around 120hrs.

All major global NWP models are aligned..

GFS


UKM


ECMWF



Further ahead

It seems nailed on we will enter a spell of around 5 days of cold weather with wintry showers and harsh frosts.

Some models want to prolong the cold incursion further and feed in an unstable north-easterly flow, extending the cold spell into what could be a potentially major mid-winter freeze.

EC @ 240hrs




To conclude:

So a major change on the way, time to get your winter clothing sorted and ensure fuel supplies are plentiful.

The good news is it will be much drier and generally much brighter with good periods of sunshine likely. But as the cold spell extends there is the increasing chance of a widespread snow-event.

Snow-fall distribution, heights etc, to be ironed out in the coming days, as the synoptic will evolve in the coming days.

Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 06-01-2016 at 19:24.
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06-01-2016, 19:21   #2
 
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When MT comes on board I'll be excira
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06-01-2016, 19:22   #3
JanuarySnowstor
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I wonder will flooded areas freeze over?
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06-01-2016, 19:22   #4
pad199207
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I've been waiting for that thread title since..... Well 2010!
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06-01-2016, 19:31   #5
clever user name
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Originally Posted by Clonmel1000 View Post
A decent shot of what though? Its January after the warmest December on record. Any significant drop in temperatures is going to seem cold relatively speaking. We are talking about Friday week? Very early days.
Yes of course, it is early days. And the models will probably change to some extent. But what they are showing right now is prolonged (proper) wintry weather. I haven't seen winter charts like these since 2010. Even more unusual to have all the major models agreeing with each other (slight differences of course).
Nothing set in stone though. Could just end up in short cold snap.
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06-01-2016, 19:34   #6
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Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
I wonder will flooded areas freeze over?
Would be some nightmare if they were left with 6" thick frozen ice around the outside of the house and all the water underneath drained away.
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06-01-2016, 19:40   #7
BLIZZARD7
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AO forecast to drop off the scale...

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06-01-2016, 19:41   #8
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That's it jinxed now!
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06-01-2016, 19:42   #9
 
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Originally Posted by leahyl View Post
Not being a debbie downer but some of the charts I've seen just now are for a week away! Surely there's a big chance of these changing again....?!
In order to enjoy the weather forum when there's a potential cold spell you've got to learn to love the models as much as the reality.

Last edited by Eugene Norman; 06-01-2016 at 19:47.
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06-01-2016, 19:46   #10
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That's it jinxed now!
What's that ????mageddon word?
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06-01-2016, 19:47   #11
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Isn't the timing pretty bang on with MTs early season winter weather prediction? Damn he's good!
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06-01-2016, 19:49   #12
 
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Hmmm,interesting.So is it due to hit in 120hrs?
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06-01-2016, 19:51   #13
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Thread okay ... But to stick a level 1 on it so far out
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06-01-2016, 19:53   #14
 
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Hmmm,interesting.So is it due to hit in 120hrs?
Well don't expect to wake up to a foot of snow in 5 days time but if this thing holds together, are you ready for conditions to arrive that would over a few days as it goes on and sets in increase the likelihood of snow (a lot)?
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06-01-2016, 19:56   #15
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Hardly a major change; it's already so cold!
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