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09-12-2015, 13:15   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

This is looking quite bad for areas where flooding has already been an issue, especially in the southern half of the country, and where water tables are full.

Both Saturday and Sunday see heavy persistent pulses of rain push up across the southern half of the country in particular as a warm front stalls over the country.

This is already being flagged in southern parts of the UK too.





Take note. More later.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 09-12-2015 at 13:21.
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09-12-2015, 14:29   #2
Wanderer78
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jebus, what a disaster for flooded areas!
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09-12-2015, 15:10   #3
arctictree
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I'm still worried about the forecast for Saturday morning as I have to drive over the Wicklow gap at 8am! Its looking increasingly dodgy.
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09-12-2015, 15:19   #4
Mars Bar
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I'm supposed to be travelling to Belfast on friday and back on Saturday. What are the opinions on such long travel? I was gonna go through castlerea and up but now it looks like the motorway to Dublin and up will be the better option.
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09-12-2015, 15:19   #5
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Weekend accumulations of 100-120mm forecasted in upper regions. We slowly approaching record rainfalls at some stations and it'll only be halfway through the month next week.
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09-12-2015, 15:20   #6
leahyl
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Quote:
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Weekend accumulations of 100-120mm forecasted in upper regions. We slowly approaching record rainfalls at some stations and it'll only be halfway through the month next week.
What about lower regions?
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09-12-2015, 15:24   #7
cherryghost
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Originally Posted by leahyl View Post
What about lower regions?
At the moment South, Southwest and Southeast look to be affected the most. Localized fall in Cork around 80mm.

Too early to call anything yet.
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09-12-2015, 15:26   #8
leahyl
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Thanks Cherryghost,

That would be disastrous for Cork, I'll be keeping a close eye on it in the next few days.
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09-12-2015, 16:03   #9
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Looks very worrying according to the latest GFS. +24 hrs of constant moderate to heavy rain over the South.
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09-12-2015, 16:17   #10
cyclops999
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Originally Posted by cherryghost View Post
At the moment South, Southwest and Southeast look to be affected the most. Localized fall in Cork around 80mm.

Too early to call anything yet.
Press Release – River Shannon in the Athlone Area

Westmeath County Council

2:30pm Wednesday 9th December 2015

Water levels in the River Shannon are continuing to rise slowly and are being monitored by Westmeath County Council. Over the last 24 hours, water levels increased by approximately 70mm and to date, no houses have been flooded.

The Council is now in receipt of an updated ESB forecast of river levels for the next five days and that forecast is that water levels will reach 39.60mOD by Monday 14th of December 2015. It should be noted that this represents an increase of 390mm above current levels and would be close to the maximum level recorded in 2009.

Westmeath County Council has activated its Flood Emergency Response Plan and a meeting of the interagency Response Committee is held each day at 11am. At today’s meeting, chaired by Westmeath County Council and attended by representatives of An Garda Siochána, Irish Water, the Defence Forces and the HSE, it was agreed that the agencies would continue to assist people to protect their homes and businesses, to provide transport where this is required and to provide other humanitarian assistance.

A further update will issue after the meeting of the coordination committee tomorrow morning.
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09-12-2015, 16:21   #11
maquiladora
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12Z GFS wants to put the south of the country under water. This would be major, widespread flooding. Of course the changes from run to run mean nothing is nailed down and a modest shift southwards would keep these fronts off shore. But this is what the 12Z GFS is showing.

This is considerably more than what the same model showed for rain totals from Desmond last weekend.


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09-12-2015, 16:25   #12
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Seriously scary stuff.....it's not that far away really
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09-12-2015, 16:34   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
12Z GFS wants to put the south of the country under water. This would be major, widespread flooding. Of course the changes from run to run mean nothing is nailed down and a modest shift southwards would keep these fronts off shore. But this is what the 12Z GFS is showing.

This is considerably more than what the same model showed for rain totals from Desmond last weekend.

keep going south
good girl
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09-12-2015, 16:41   #14
Kermit.de.frog
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I suspect, should things remain as forecast, there would be a red warning for flooding in the south.
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09-12-2015, 16:45   #15
Oneiric 3
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EMHI 12z run has this feature just coming into the frame by 6pm Fri, and does appear to be making a beeline for the SW & South at this stage which would be concerning for sure.

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