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Strong winds Tuesday 17th November: Gusts possible up to 140km/h

  • 16-11-2015 7:47pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Winds for tommorow forecast to be very strong, some charts in the Autumn Weather thread forecasting wind up to 140km/h. Persistent Rain will also accompany the winds possibly making a bad flooding situation worse in the northwest.

    For now Met Eireann have issued a yellow wind warning for land, but our charts suggest wind in a level 2 (orange) or 3 (red) warning, so I have posted an orange in light of Iancars suggestions.

    Met Eireann warning :
    Wind Warning for Dublin, Wicklow, Galway, Clare, Kerry and Limerick
    West to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 60 to 75 km/hr with gusts of 100-125 km/hr on Tuesday afternoon, and early tonight in the east.

    Issued:Monday 16 November 2015 21:00
    Valid:Tuesday 17 November 2015 12:00 to Tuesday 17 November 2015 21:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Cork, Tipperary and Waterford
    West to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 55 to 65 km/hr and gusts of 90 to 110 km/hr during Tuesday afternoon.

    Issued:Monday 16 November 2015 20:37
    Valid:Tuesday 17 November 2015 12:00 to Tuesday 17 November 2015 20:00


«13456712

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Thread should be level 2...

    Gusts to 140km would mean a level 3 event ...

    Its highly likely there will be a large swath of 110-130km gusts.


    850hp winds in the 140km+ , some of these could filter down to the surface, especially on the lee side of mountains.

    368768.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Thread should be level 2...

    As Met Eireann have only issued a yellow warning I issued a level 1.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    I think it should be changed, regardless of what Met Éireann have up. Our cumulative opinions on here can be quite accurate in these situations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    I think it should be changed, regardless of what Met Éireann have up. Our cumulative opinions on here can be quite accurate in these situations.

    Report my post and put in a request so, I support your opinion.

    Edit:
    Nevermind, changed, I didn't realise you could change the title


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    You should be still able to change it, go to edit then advance edit and change the title there.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Clare, Kerry and Limerick

    West to southwest winds will reach mean speeds of 60 to 75 km/hr with gusts of 100-120 km/hr on Tuesday afternoon.
    Issued:
    Monday 16 November 2015 20:47
    Valid:
    Tuesday 17 November 2015 12:00 to Tuesday 17 November 2015 18:00

    Might end up stronger than that but 120 km/h looks like a safe bet at this stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Might end up stronger than that but 120 km/h looks like a safe bet at this stage.

    Updated into OP, just as well we upgraded it to level 2.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭corsav6


    Any chance we could see much of this in north mayo? Its not often we miss out on wind events.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z GFS catching up with the higher res models. Still probably struggling a bit due to the small size of the low.

    24-289UK_bcy2.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    No mention of Galway in the warnings yet on some of the models it shows the winds funneling into Galway bay.

    I think here in Galway we could get the worst of the winds or light winds depending if the low shifts a tiny bit north or south think we need at least one more model run to see if we can add Galway to the list


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    No mention of Galway in the warnings yet on some of the models it shows the winds funneling into Galway bay.

    I think here in Galway we could get the worst of the winds or light winds depending if the low shifts a tiny bit north or south think we need at least one more model run to see if we can add Galway to the list

    Its in the Orange warning from Met Eireann:
    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Galway, Clare, Kerry and Limerick


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Villain wrote: »
    Its in the Orange warning from Met Eireann:

    Just updated in the last few minutes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z HIRLAM. Peak mean winds on the coast ~95 km/h. It's a small but strong swathe of winds.

    hirlamuk-3-21-0_odh4.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    That looks scary. May consider taking shelter away from the coasts tommorow if that's the wind! That's well deserving of a red warning!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Villain wrote: »
    Its in the Orange warning from Met Eireann:

    Ok thanks I see it on the met eireann site now but it was not written on the warning on this page it is now though


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    That looks scary. May consider taking shelter away from the coasts tommorow if that's the wind! That's well deserving of a red warning!

    Ah the Atlantic coast is well used to storm force winds. It's a very narrow swathe of intense winds on that chart though so it might not even be apparent tomorrow since there is no Weather Observing Station reporting on the Clare coast and no buoys off the coast near there!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Ah the Atlantic coast is well used to storm force winds. It's a very narrow swathe of intense winds on that chart though so it might not even be apparent tomorrow since there is no Weather Observing Station reporting on the Clare coast and no buoys off the coast near there!

    Have to rely on my station so for wind strength !!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    I'll post updates from West Limerick where possible.

    Looking forward to some real weather :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    This will definitely be noticeable in these inland counties. Not that common to see these kind of gusts in southerly counties well away from the coast.

    arpegeuk-11-23-0_ing8.png
    arpegeuk-11-24-0_toc9.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    Shannon TAF goes for 38 gust 55 kt at peak up to 5 pm.

    TAF EINN 161700Z 1618/1718 20010KT 9999 SCT012 BKN022 BECMG 1618/1621 16006KT TEMPO 1618/1623 5000 -RADZ BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 1618/1623 RA BECMG 1621/1623 VRB03KT PROB30 TEMPO 1623/1705 5000 -DZ BR BKN012 BECMG 1704/1706 10010KT 7000 -RA BKN012 TEMPO 1706/1713 4000 RA BKN008 BECMG 1707/1709 14010KT BECMG 1709/1712 24027G42KT BECMG 1712/1714 BKN018 TEMPO 1713/1718 9999 BKN018 PROB40 TEMPO 1714/1717 26038G55KT BECMG 1716/1718 28025G38KT=


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Oil tanker Forth Fisher left Galway this Evening for Liverpool normally they go South but this time heading North to avoid the storm


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Strongest winds according to ME now in the shipping forecast will be from Loop Head to Erris Head


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Heres the analysis of the TAF'S (Avaition forecast) I posted on the flightradar thread :
    11PM TAFs out

    Dublin
    Becoming 10am-12pm 180degrees (S) 14kts gusting 25kts
    Becoming 12pm-2pm 240 degrees (WSW) 23kts gusting 39kts
    Tempo 2pm-7pm 250 degrees (WSW) 30kts gusting 45kts
    Prob 30% temp 4pm-6pm 260 degrees (W) at 33kts gusting 50kts

    Wind shouldn't be too much of an issue, maybe the tempo from 4pm-6pm may cause a few problems if theres turbulence and windshear about.

    Cork
    Becoming 6am-8am 180 degrees (S) 15kts gusting 27kts
    Becoming 8am-10am 210 degrees (SSW) 23kts gusting 38kts
    Becoming 10am-12pm 240 degrees (WSW) 27kts gusting 43kts
    Tempo 1pm-5pm 250 degrees (WSW) 32kts gusting 48kts
    Becoming 4pm-6pm 280 degrees (W) 22kts gusting 38kts
    Becoming 6pm-8pm 270 degrees (W) 18kts gusting 30kts

    Cork will suffer massively tomorrow with an almost complete crosswind from 10am onwards. Id be surprised if anything manages to land between 10am and 4pm with those winds.

    Shannon
    Becoming 6am-8am 140 degrees (SE) 12kts
    Becoming 8am-10am 160 degrees (SSE) 20kts gusting 32kts
    Becoming 10am-12pm 240 degrees (WSW) 27kts gusting 42kts
    Becoming 12pm-2pm 240 degrees (WSW) 32kts gusting 47kts
    Tempo 2pm-5pm 250 degrees (WSW) 37kts gusting 52kts
    Prob 40% Tempo 2pm-4pm 260 degrees (W) 40kts gusting 60kts
    Becoming 4pm-6pm 280 degrees (W) 25kts gusting 42kts
    Becoming 6pm-8pm 270 degrees (W) 22kts gusting 35kts
    Becoming 8pm-10pm 260 degrees (W) 15kts gusting 26kts

    Shannon will have a bad crosswind early morning, but that shouldnt cause many problems due to the winds being light. For the rest of the day the wind is either directly aligned with the runway or close to it, so there probably wont be must disruption outside of the 40kts gusting 60kts.

    Nothing notable on Knock, max is 3pm-5pm 300degrees (WNW) 20kts gusting 33

    The gusts at Shannon look scary! 40kts (74km/h) gusting 60kts (111.2km/h)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Quite stormy for a brief period on the east coast tomorrow evening.

    15111718_2_1618.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Will tomorrow's storm get the name Barney? It was decided that storm depression that generated orange level winds be named. They probably wait for the next model run before they apply a name.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Will tomorrow's storm get the name Barney? It was decided that storm depression that generated orange level winds be named. They probably wait for the next model run before they apply a name.

    That name was given to the storm this morning


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Will tomorrow's storm get the name Barney? It was decided that storm depression that generated orange level winds be named. They probably wait for the next model run before they apply a name.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmMaUkdE_SU


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,692 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    wooohoo beach tomorrow!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    So how does the naming work?

    If it's a uk thing surely we should called it something else?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,164 ✭✭✭secman


    elastico wrote: »
    So how does the naming work?

    If it's a uk thing surely we should called it something else?

    It's a UK & Ireland thing ...... names are already picked based on polls .


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