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Abigail to bring strong winds Thursday 12th. Gusts to 120km

  • 11-11-2015 10:45am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭


    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo
    Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 55 to 80 km/h, will gust between 100 and 120 km/h. Winds will be strongest near coastal areas, peaking Thursday evening into early Thursday night.

    Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 08:33
    Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 09:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 06:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Tipperary and Waterford
    Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 40 to 55 km/h, will gust between 90 and 100 km/h.

    Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 08:00
    Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 09:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 03:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Roscommon
    Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 45 to 55 km/h, will gust between 90 and 100 km/h.

    Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 08:00
    Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 09:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 03:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
    Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 45 to 55 km/h, will gust between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds will be strongest near coastal areas.

    Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 08:00
    Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 06:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 03:00


    Max gusts as per the GFS hi res
    30-289UK_ylj9.GIF


«13456

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Does't look like much of a threat on the latest GFS, well to the northwest, but still strong enough for western coastlines on the HIRLAM which explains the Orange warning from Met Eireann.

    gfs-0-36_pgb3.png

    Mean winds on HIRLAM

    hirlamuk-3-38-0_jfp2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    You might want to amend title to say Thursday 12th, not 13th. If it were slated for Friday 13th then I'd be more worried!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z ARPEGE gusts. Touching 130 km/h on the northwest coast.

    arpegeuk-52-72-0_qla1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Interesting to see how 12zs go, as 6z GFS went totally against trend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    This storm has been christened Abigail by Met Eireann and the British Met Office. Mods can you incorporate the name of the storm into the thread title?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Interesting to see how 12zs go, as 6z GFS went totally against trend.

    12Z GFS slipped south a little, but still keeps the low quite far off shore, only showing 100 km/h gusts grazing the coasts.
    The higher resolution models probably have a better take on it at this stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Latest GFS hi res brings in the south coast in the warning too.
    24-289UK_tvs6.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z HIRLAM a little weaker but still showing a period of strong winds hitting the west coast. Mean winds at 90 km/h here. Force 10.

    hirlamuk-3-33-0_nbg2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Warnings updated at 11am by met eireann.
    Just 2 single warnings now, orange for north west coasts and yellow for everywhere else.

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo
    Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 55 to 80 km/h, will gust between 100 and 120 km/h. Winds will be strongest near coastal areas, peaking Thursday evening into early Thursday night.

    Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 10:00
    Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 09:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 06:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Roscommon
    Southerly winds, later veering southwest then west, with mean speeds of 45 to 55 km/h, will gust between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds will be strongest near coastal areas.

    Issued:Wednesday 11 November 2015 10:00
    Valid:Thursday 12 November 2015 06:00 to Friday 13 November 2015 06:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Finally, a bit of weather.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Finally, a bit of weather.

    In fairness the past few days haven't been exactly calm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    This morning's GSM run has an interesting feature following on from Abigail on Friday morning with a sharp shortwave feature bringing even stronger winds to the west coast for a short time.

    368249.PNG

    I am not sure about the GFS but the ECM has picked on this potential wave but does not make much of it, having it much further north and much weaker.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ARPEGE. Gusts.

    arpegeuk-52-80-0_rvs9.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,089 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Is the ARPEGE a bit off with the timing? or are they gusts from another system showing for sat eve?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Is the ARPEGE a bit off with the timing? or are they gusts from another system showing for sat eve?

    Those are total max gusts. Like accumulated rainfall.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    The system on Saturday/Sunday is an ex-Hurricane so probably alot of rain winds dont look too bad though


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    GFS still going for that cheeky feature on Friday morning, one to watch


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Quite a difference between the 12Z HIRLAM (left) and new 18Z HIRLAM (right)...

    aPMBFJ0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    ohhh major downgrade!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Quite a difference between the 12Z HIRLAM (left) and new 18Z HIRLAM (right)...

    aPMBFJ0.png

    Assume the 12z Hirlam was still using the 0z global EC data as the base, while the new 18z is incorporating the updated 12z EC.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    There is that cheeky low on the HIRLAM, using the 12z EC global model data.

    hirlamuk-2-39-0.png?11-21


    Interesting to see what the 18z WRF does using the 18z GFS data.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    There is that cheeky low on the HIRLAM, using the 12z EC global model data.

    The GSM 12z update still showing this feature too, but in a less intense form than the 6z run. Worth keeping an eye on all the same.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    The GSM 12z update still showing this feature too, but in a less intense form than the 6z run. Worth keeping an eye on all the same.

    Yea, i think 18z will ramp it up a little, as it will feed in the 18z GFS data


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    WV at 2200hrs

    368295.PNG

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    So what should we expect for tomorrow?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    So what should we expect for tomorrow?

    In advance of the cold front, widespread gale force gusts. Widespread gusts of 50-60mph (80-100kph).

    Then a swathe of severe winds will brush into the far north-west during the afternoon, perhaps touching 120kph in exposed coastal districts.

    Tomorrow night will see a small short-wave trough approach the north-west coast, probably tightening the pressure gradient to its south, bringing another pulse of strong winds.

    This bit remains uncertain, but another area of +50/60mph gusting winds pushing across southern Ireland.... with a slim potential for some higher gusts if the low becomes more developed on future model runs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,835 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Good, get rid of the fekin leaves off the trees in one go.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭corsav6


    Good, get rid of the fekin leaves off the trees in one go.

    None left to get rid of where I am in mayo :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Just to need the second phase of strong winds is on Friday morning.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,065 ✭✭✭Mech1


    Hi again, Just a gentle reminder with the upcoming predicted weather,

    I provide the Dublin airport live air traffic control audio feed and you can listen in by clicking here:
    http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw My feed is the first of the 2 available.

    Please dont clutter up the Weather forum discussing aircraft movements, go arounds etc, post on this
    thread instead: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057359945

    Many thanks.


This discussion has been closed.
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