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11-01-2015, 05:38   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

Latest guidance suggest sharp cyclogenesis or rapid deepening and tightening of the pressure gradient in transition off the west coast and the potential for storm gusts along with strong average wind speeds. It is still early to speculate numerically the actual speed that can be expected but certainly potentially damaging to structures. The west is most vulnerable but should it occur as progged it is a nationwide problem all be it to varying and dynamic extents.

Warnings will almost certainly be issued on Monday.





Keep up to date as this is a developing situation and strength and intensity are not nailed on just yet. The track has cross model agreement.

00z ECM is slightly less dramatic because it does not deepen the LP so much with damaging winds for the southwest but not as intense elsewhere - still an upgrade on the 12z.

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Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 11-01-2015 at 14:47.
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11-01-2015, 06:23   #2
sparrowcar
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And so it begins...
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11-01-2015, 07:09   #3
Tactical
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Tickets at the ready for the roller coaster.

Oh goody
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11-01-2015, 07:21   #4
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A pretty big difference between the models still.

ECM has a 964mb low with some strong winds but mainly confined to the south of the country.



GEM has a strong 950mb low crossing the country.



GFS is similiar.



GFSP is the strongest of the models with a 945mb low and very strong winds.



ECM does best in these scenarios, but there's still enough time for significant changes either way.
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11-01-2015, 08:02   #5
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We've done well so far this year to escape all the crazy lows that have passed well to the north of Ireland, but this one does look like it'll be a lot further south, going on current predictions.

I'm wondering will my new garden fence finally get a decent test here in Limerick, after last February's storm destroyed the old one. It looks like a similar trajectory on some of the models. Will be watching this closely.

Last edited by Strangegravy; 11-01-2015 at 08:04. Reason: It's early....
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11-01-2015, 08:34   #6
Sleety_Rain
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EC places gusts >90mph along south coast midnight Wednesday
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11-01-2015, 08:42   #7
maquiladora
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Still a large variety of outcomes on the ECM postage stamps. Most have a low in the 960-965mb range though there is a cluster with deeper lows similar to the GFS and GEM.
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11-01-2015, 10:04   #8
maquiladora
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06Z GFS has pushed the low further south. Strong winds over the southern half of the country on this run.

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11-01-2015, 10:06   #9
Sleety_Rain
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Theme for peak intensity to be just before pushing making landfall. Still looks likely to be a very windy day but with the low filling as it approaches.
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11-01-2015, 10:06   #10
downwiththatsor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
06Z GFS has pushed the low further south. Strong winds over the southern half of the country on this run.
GFSP a little further North?
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11-01-2015, 10:14   #11
maquiladora
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Quote:
Originally Posted by downwiththatsor View Post
GFSP a little further North?
Not much difference in position. Strongest winds are again into the southwest on the GFSP. A bit stronger than the GFS.





Very stormy runs, for southern parts especially. But with a 20mb difference between this and the ECM.... I'm not sure I believe the GFS here.
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11-01-2015, 10:44   #12
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11-01-2015, 11:13   #13
 
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A rather conservative forecast there by MT. I was expecting at least a low level alert for the strong winds for today and tonight. Wednesday's event is still not set in stone and a good call by him not to make to much of it at this stage.
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11-01-2015, 11:37   #14
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Looks like a hide under the table event to me!
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11-01-2015, 11:56   #15
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For Southern parts who rarely see storms of this intensity this is for sure something we need to keep a close eye on over the next few days. We all know its track will dictate all but currently all the ingredients are there for an event type situation. Interesting model watching ahead.
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