Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact [email protected]

Gales/Stormy Conditions in Connacht & Ulster Dec 10-11th

  • 03-12-2014 11:57am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    As there is the possibility of a storm system next week that could be severe should we open a thread for this.,

    Mods delete if you think its not necessary.

    Changed the heading in case it don't happen


«1345678

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 688 ✭✭✭Aerohead


    Cant be much of a storm coming , 330 views to now and no replies


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    From M.T's forecast.
    MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy but possibly becoming stormy especially in Connacht and Ulster, timing still somewhat uncertain for the strongest winds, and intensity could be anywhere between 80 and 130 km/hr depending on how this evolves.


  • Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Chicken1


    Met Eireann not giving too much away yet

    By Monday morning, however, wet and very windy conditions will have set in
    countrywide with a consequent rise in temperatures. There is a high probability
    that southwesterly winds will further increase to gale force in many areas
    during Monday, with periods of heavy rain indicated for most places also.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    What? No snow? I don't believe it....................


    Met Eireann predicting strong winds, heavy rain and mild temperatures for next week


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I see no storm on the models here for Sunday/Monday.

    Sunday :

    ECM1-96.GIF?03-0

    Monday :

    ECM1-120.GIF?03-0


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Evelyn showed a storm on the six news for Monday, suppose we will wait and see


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Evelyn showed a storm on the six news for Monday, suppose we will wait and see

    I just looked at it there, what she showed was this graphic for next Wednesday, it was from the 0Z ECM.

    ECM1-168.GIF?00

    But latest run has that low further north on Wednesday instead, so it looks like it won't have much impact here unless things change again.

    ECM1-168.GIF?03-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Storm 10 wrote:
    Evelyn showed a storm on the six news for Monday, suppose we will wait and see


    and again just now on the 2100 news..


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I think maybe one positive from the primary storm center moving more north is that it could pull more warmer air into the mix, giving a better chance of a potent secondary or steep short wave to develop in the vicinity of Ireland. Either way though, still looks much windier and seasonal than of late.

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 688 ✭✭✭Aerohead


    John Eagleton getting worried about storms next week, taken from the Irish Independent


    While the country is set to miss the icy blast predicted to hit the UK, the first snowflakes of the winter will fall here over the coming days.

    Forecaster John Eagleton told the Herald that conditions will remain "fairly settled" until the weekend, but will then take a turn for the worse.

    "Sunday is not going to be a nice day. It'll be cold and showery, particularly in the west and north-west, and some of those showers will be wintry," he said.

    "It might leave a dusting of snow on the hills, but snow is not going to be a major factor as far as I can see for most (low-lying) places."

    Warm and rainproof clothing will be needed for next week.

    "In fact, potential storms are what would concern me next week, a bit like what we got last year.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,708 ✭✭✭dmc17


    Wednesday could be lively on the West coast. If the storm comes, combined with reasonably high tides and big seas.

    1-1418191200-1.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Thread title is a bit confusing. There is no sign of any storm for Sunday/Monday.

    What we are looking at is the potential for windy/stormy conditions on Wednesday. 18Z GFS rolling out now so we'll see what that shows soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Just a couple of charts from this time last year to illustrate just how quickly lows can 'bomb' at this time of year.

    Dec 4. Benign looking low west of Iceland with a cool, diverging air mass over Ireland after a weak front passed through the night before.

    330601.png

    24 hour later, that innocuous looking depression had exploded by the time it reached S Scandinavia, with its central pressure having fallen more than 30 mb in that short time.

    330602.png


    Images: Vedur.is

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Not much change on the 18Z GFS. The main low is just too far north to have a significant impact here. Gusts of around 100-110km/h along the northwest coast. Fairly typical winter values for that area that you'd expect to see several times in a normal winter. Scotland being further north obviously gets it a bit stronger.

    Still over 120 hours away so things could change quite a bit by Wednesday one way or the other.

    132-289UK.GIF?04-18

    Waves out at sea to our north look would be amazing though!

    PY8vJZB.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Something rather unusual just happened in the past two days, an anomalously high pressure centre on the Russian side of the North Pole then was detached from the Siberian high by retrograde low pressure moving east along the arctic coast, and the breakoff high pushed across the pole to reinforce a weak Greenland high which is now about to interact with the first wave of low pressure involved in next week's complex storm evolution. I think the situation is rather volatile and the difference from last year's storm scenario is that much colder air is available to mix in.

    The impacts of next week's stormy weather will therefore include snow on hills and severe conditions for livestock that are situated above 200m in the northern half of the country.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Tracking even further north on this mornings models.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z GFS is blowing the low up into a very powerful sub-925mb low off Greenland. I think there have been only 6 north Atlantic lows below 930mb observed in modern times.

    gfs-0-93-3h.png?6

    As for here, winds don't look severe on the models at the moment, but it is a very large area of low pressure so it will stay windy for a much longer period of time than usual. 06Z GFS shows 80-90 km/h gusts starting on the west coast around 6am Tuesday and not dropping below those values again until 6pm Thursday.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    A very wintry week ahead if the 6z is to be believed, the low stalls in the North Sea bringing persistent strong north westerlies for most of the week

    Big changes compared to the 0z though so doubtful it's accurate


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Surf's up.

    1YsP69D.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    And in animated form. :cool:

    b9ehyyQ.gif

    I expect there will be lots of surfers flying in to Ireland over the weekend to take advantage of this.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Early Met Office warning for Wednesday :
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1418169600&regionName=uk

    Maybe a chance of a secondary low Thursday/Friday?

    132-21UK.GIF?06-6

    ECU1-144.GIF?06-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Early Met Office warning for Wednesday :
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1418169600&regionName=uk

    Maybe a chance of a secondary low Thursday/Friday?


    thanks Maq. Any updates re any cold incursions?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,361 ✭✭✭YouTookMyName


    Looking at air travel disruption?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GFS. Gusts up to around 100 km/h on the northwest coast. Not too severe, yellow warning stuff.

    gfs-0-102.png?12

    12Z UKMO has the isobars a bit tighter. Gusts maybe closer to 120 km/h on this.

    UW96-21.GIF?06-17

    12Z GME has some fairy tight isobars.

    gme-0-84.png?06-12

    Back at 76 hours, the hi-res ICON model is bringing this low down to a near record breaking sub-920mb near Greenland.

    icon-0-76.png?06-00

    12Z GEM has a rapidly deepening second depression crossing Ireland and the UK Friday morning.

    gem-0-138.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 56 ✭✭Scotty15


    What are the chances of the secondary low effecting flights from Dublin to London on Friday evening ! Thanks


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Scotty15 wrote: »
    What are the chances of the secondary low effecting flights from Dublin to London on Friday evening ! Thanks

    Impossible to say, too far away, very low probability at the moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    No real surprises on the 18Z GFS. Still looking at max gusts of around 100 km/h on the west coast Wednesday.

    96-289UK.GIF?06-18

    Later then a secondary feature does pop up on this run but it's weak and tracking south, but still worth keeping an eye on.

    126-289UK.GIF?06-18


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The possible second low on Thursday/Friday has been picked up by the ECM and UKMO now, though the GFS doesn't really develop it.

    ECU1-120.GIF?07-12
    U120-21UK.GIF?07-06

    Still a lot of uncertainty with that of course.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Dont know what about Wednesday but suddenly got stormy here, wouldn't like to be out in it.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,361 ✭✭✭YouTookMyName


    Pangea wrote: »
    Dont know what about Wednesday but suddenly got stormy here, wouldn't like to be out in it.

    Where's "here"


Advertisement