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Strong winds, heavy rains, high seas Monday night into Tuesday 20/21st Oct

  • 20-10-2014 6:52am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭


    Mods take note, I had to make a quick decision on this thread, as there is already a discussion of Gonzalo that has touched on this storm potential. There are two reasons for not wanting to change that thread with a LEVEL 1 (local LEVEL 2) tag, one being fear of thread hi-jack, but also that I would prefer not to hype up the Gonzalo aspect of the storm.

    This event takes the energy from post-tropical Gonzalo, currently located around 53N 30W, and merges it with an existing frontal system northwest of Scotland. The results according to most model guidance (which has upgraded somewhat overnight) will be a fast-moving, sharply defined trough that appears likely to generate wind gusts to 100 or 110 km/hr over many parts of Ireland around midnight to 0600h, but as strong as 130 km/hr near Donegal Bay and possibly into Galway Bay as well.

    The timing is conducive to a moderate storm surge with some overtopping of coastal installations possible around the high tides at 0430-0500h Tuesday.

    Coastal and marine interests should be aware that very poor conditions will sweep in late afternoon or early evening and rage on most of the night with the possibility of some force 11-12 conditions off the west coast.

    Expect blustery conditions for about 12 hours once this sets in, with the risk of some power outages from falling trees weakened by the saturation of soils after 20-25 mm rainfalls. The winds will come from the SW until frontal passage and then from W to WNW, and in fact the strongest winds for some may occur after frontal passage. The south coast, on the other hand, will see stronger gusts ahead of the trough, then after the windshift gusts may not be quite as strong there coming from a land direction.

    Watch for updates (and if the threads are merged, so be it).


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    There are some differences between the models. GFS and EURO4 have a more northerly position than the ECM at midnight. On the GFS, max gusts are shown to be around 90 km/h on the exposed coasts, and this is reflected in the Met E warning, "gusts of 75 to 90 km/h possible especially along exposed coasts and higher ground". The ECM track though, if it verified, would result in stronger winds for the northwest coast though, maybe up to around 115 km/h. Neither Met E nor UKMO shipping forecasts mention storm force for sea areas, so perhaps the ECM is overdoing it.

    8c8PJZF.png
    KISk2Le.png

    Overall though, it doesn't look like being anything exceptional in terms of winds for this time of year, and the models and Met E forecast indicate it being less stormy than the previous stormy weather we recently had. But because its the reamins of a hurricane and not just a regular nameless depression it gets a lot more media attention. :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I think maybe I am adding some intensity from considerations of rapid air mass transfer and pressure rises behind the trough. There appears to be an intense core to the post-tropical storm feature that may be only meso-scale but the energy from this is most likely to be on the southern flank of the pressure centre. Current CMC analysis shows a 993 mb centre at 53N 31W but as this is largely satellite derived, no ship or buoy inside the 1000 mb contour, you have to wonder what the actual central pressure is, given that it was in the 960s passing Newfoundland. Oil platforms east of St John's had sustained winds of 75-85 knots Sunday afternoon local time. These are of course elevated like the Kinsale Energy site, but as you know sea level conditions are often something like 2/3 to 3/4 of the conditions on these platforms. I had to wonder looking at model runs where all that energy went and if it has all entirely dissipated. Not that I buy into the more extreme media hype solutions either, somewhere in between perhaps.

    So anyway my forecast philosophy on this is to assume the models are a bit on the weak side of actual developments to come, not to mention that they have been oscillating from strong to weak solutions and taking turns doing so. Overnight, the strongest depiction was on GME which had the weakest solution 24h earlier.

    The phasing of highest swells with high tide concerns me and I suspect this storm may "over-perform" -- we'll see, at least it won't take too long to play out now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Joan Blackburn from Met Eireann just been on local radio here in Galway talking about this event, she said winds will pick up this evening and get stronger as the night goes on , they will be at the strongest from around 3am onwards well into tomorrow, very severe squalls from the North West and as trees are still with leaves you are looking at trees down and dangerous driving conditions.

    Its difficult at present to predict what strength the winds will be but could be reaching storm force during the night on West and North coasts with very heavy rain but she said winds will gust to 120 kmh.


  • Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    Met eireann have upgraded to orange alert now


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    the met.ie orange warning is only for the most north western counties with the majority of the country under a yellow warning. Possibly the most worrying thing for me is that I have to travel tonight ( only through Kildare) but there are a lot of large trees along the way and they still have a lot of leaves left on them, some of these trees have already fell in the last few windy periods so I know its a possibility.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 688 ✭✭✭Aerohead


    Very poor warning to be honest, they have the same wind speeds under both orange and yellow warnings. what's the betting it will all go orange or even red before the day is out



    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo

    Strong to gale force south to southwest winds will become gale force west or northwest overnight with gusts of 90 to 110km/h. But squalls to 120km/h. are likely in exposed areas for a time overnight.

    Issued:
    Monday 20 October 2014 11:00

    Valid:
    Monday 20 October 2014 19:00 to Tuesday 21 October 2014 14:00


    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Galway and Roscommon

    Strong to gale force south to southwest winds will become gale force west or northwest overnight with gusts of 90 to 110km/h. But squalls to 120km/h in some exposed parts of the northwest and north for a time overnight.

    Issued:
    Monday 20 October 2014 11:00

    Valid:
    Monday 20 October 2014 19:00 to Tuesday 21 October 2014 14:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Appalling sensationalisation by the Indo, Hurricane of 75 km/h to hit. FFS. The Met should be crucifying them for ramping and upsetting vulnerable people.


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Appalling sensationalisation by the Indo, Hurricane of 75 km/h to hit. FFS. The Met should be crucifying them for ramping and upsetting vulnerable people.



    couldn't agree more, its disgraceful stuff just to sell a few more papers, majority of people know this but some people wont and will start to panic a little when they think a hurricane is coming.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The upgraded warning reflects the stronger winds shown on the ECM for the northwest. Met E must have more confidence in that now since they've changed the forecast since morning.

    Still not looking at anything exceptional but perhaps something closer to the recent stormy weather we had for northwestern coastal counties tonight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yeah, latest models have it a little more intense than the last few days.

    Interestingly it could turn quite interesting as this feature exits the east coast of England.

    It winds up quite a lot and could give some very strong gusts into more built of areas of easter, even southeastern England.

    One to watch now for sure.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I missed the Beeb forecast at 1330 - What do the British MO make of it??


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    I missed the Beeb forecast at 1330 - What do the British MO make of it??

    A Yellow warning. 80 mph gusts possible for northern Scotland coasts.
    The remains of Hurricane Gonzalo are running across the Atlantic, reaching the UK on Monday night, bringing a period of strong winds to the UK. The strongest winds are expected on Tuesday as the low pressure clears eastwards; some uncertainty remains in peak windspeeds but there remains the potential for disruption to travel, especially as the strongest winds coincide with the morning rush hour in places. Fallen leaves impeding drainage increases the risk of surface water affecting roads, while some damage to trees is possible, given that many are still in full leaf.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Be a bit rough for a time off Donegal, Sligo, North Mayo between 1 and 3 am and some strong winds for a while in the early hours down a long the west coast but other than that nothing of note really. Some prolonged, squally showers crossing the country around midnight and some of these could be on the heavy side.

    It all passes through quickly enough and I suspect tomorrow few will know anything occurred.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z EURO4 is a bit different to previous runs and shows stronger winds on the northwest coast tonight. Touching 90 km/h sustained there around midnight.

    14102100_2_2012.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 688 ✭✭✭Aerohead


    Very windy in Galway now some serious gusts

    Some very heavy rain moving in now


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    IR animation over the last 6 hours. Sorry I did not catch earlier images that would have showed its transition from tropical storm to extratropical.

    85rWhi.gif

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Still relatively calm here in Donegal Town.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    irish1967 wrote: »
    Still relatively calm here in Donegal Town.

    It should only feel stormy around 1-3am with a fairly brief window of peak winds during that time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,798 ✭✭✭sunbeam


    Lashing down here in Achill and the wind is picking up. Time to batten down the hatches and charge everything up....


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,746 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mace head with the highest wind speed so far at 20.00 Reports of 33 Knts, gust 41 Knts (76 Kph )

    Meanwhile here on the Kerry coast: 10 min avg 32 kph, gust 58 kph ( wind rising slowly but steadily )

    Rain amounts small

    Bar 1002.0mb Falling Rapidly


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭Creative Juices


    Windy and wet in west Galway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Just seen the local weather forecast for us in southern poland (elevated heights of over 600m) this system promising up to 20cm snow Wednesday onwards. Thursday and Friday very cold days and nights.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Strongest gust on the 2100 reports is 48Kts at Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Getting very rough here in Galway city now


  • Registered Users Posts: 189 ✭✭royalflush2003


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Getting very rough here in Galway city now

    What time to hit dublin , wicklow ?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Gust of 51km/h here in Waterford City and 72km/h at Waterford Airport

    www.waterfordcityweather.com


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    For some reason these ex hurricanes can pack a bigger punch than the models predict. Turning worse here now in cork than I was expecting


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,747 ✭✭✭fleet_admiral


    Mild with a light breeze in Terenure, south Dublin


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,434 ✭✭✭northgirl


    For some reason these ex hurricanes can pack a bigger punch than the models predict. Turning worse here now in cork than I was expecting

    I thought it was just me - had to mute the TV to make sure :pac:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Sounds pretty bad now here in Galway feeling could be worse than predicted ...


This discussion has been closed.
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