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20-10-2014, 07:52   #1
M.T. Cranium
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Strong winds, heavy rains, high seas Monday night into Tuesday 20/21st Oct

Mods take note, I had to make a quick decision on this thread, as there is already a discussion of Gonzalo that has touched on this storm potential. There are two reasons for not wanting to change that thread with a LEVEL 1 (local LEVEL 2) tag, one being fear of thread hi-jack, but also that I would prefer not to hype up the Gonzalo aspect of the storm.

This event takes the energy from post-tropical Gonzalo, currently located around 53N 30W, and merges it with an existing frontal system northwest of Scotland. The results according to most model guidance (which has upgraded somewhat overnight) will be a fast-moving, sharply defined trough that appears likely to generate wind gusts to 100 or 110 km/hr over many parts of Ireland around midnight to 0600h, but as strong as 130 km/hr near Donegal Bay and possibly into Galway Bay as well.

The timing is conducive to a moderate storm surge with some overtopping of coastal installations possible around the high tides at 0430-0500h Tuesday.

Coastal and marine interests should be aware that very poor conditions will sweep in late afternoon or early evening and rage on most of the night with the possibility of some force 11-12 conditions off the west coast.

Expect blustery conditions for about 12 hours once this sets in, with the risk of some power outages from falling trees weakened by the saturation of soils after 20-25 mm rainfalls. The winds will come from the SW until frontal passage and then from W to WNW, and in fact the strongest winds for some may occur after frontal passage. The south coast, on the other hand, will see stronger gusts ahead of the trough, then after the windshift gusts may not be quite as strong there coming from a land direction.

Watch for updates (and if the threads are merged, so be it).
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20-10-2014, 08:34   #2
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There are some differences between the models. GFS and EURO4 have a more northerly position than the ECM at midnight. On the GFS, max gusts are shown to be around 90 km/h on the exposed coasts, and this is reflected in the Met E warning, "gusts of 75 to 90 km/h possible especially along exposed coasts and higher ground". The ECM track though, if it verified, would result in stronger winds for the northwest coast though, maybe up to around 115 km/h. Neither Met E nor UKMO shipping forecasts mention storm force for sea areas, so perhaps the ECM is overdoing it.




Overall though, it doesn't look like being anything exceptional in terms of winds for this time of year, and the models and Met E forecast indicate it being less stormy than the previous stormy weather we recently had. But because its the reamins of a hurricane and not just a regular nameless depression it gets a lot more media attention.
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20-10-2014, 09:12   #3
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I think maybe I am adding some intensity from considerations of rapid air mass transfer and pressure rises behind the trough. There appears to be an intense core to the post-tropical storm feature that may be only meso-scale but the energy from this is most likely to be on the southern flank of the pressure centre. Current CMC analysis shows a 993 mb centre at 53N 31W but as this is largely satellite derived, no ship or buoy inside the 1000 mb contour, you have to wonder what the actual central pressure is, given that it was in the 960s passing Newfoundland. Oil platforms east of St John's had sustained winds of 75-85 knots Sunday afternoon local time. These are of course elevated like the Kinsale Energy site, but as you know sea level conditions are often something like 2/3 to 3/4 of the conditions on these platforms. I had to wonder looking at model runs where all that energy went and if it has all entirely dissipated. Not that I buy into the more extreme media hype solutions either, somewhere in between perhaps.

So anyway my forecast philosophy on this is to assume the models are a bit on the weak side of actual developments to come, not to mention that they have been oscillating from strong to weak solutions and taking turns doing so. Overnight, the strongest depiction was on GME which had the weakest solution 24h earlier.

The phasing of highest swells with high tide concerns me and I suspect this storm may "over-perform" -- we'll see, at least it won't take too long to play out now.
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20-10-2014, 09:43   #4
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Joan Blackburn from Met Eireann just been on local radio here in Galway talking about this event, she said winds will pick up this evening and get stronger as the night goes on , they will be at the strongest from around 3am onwards well into tomorrow, very severe squalls from the North West and as trees are still with leaves you are looking at trees down and dangerous driving conditions.

Its difficult at present to predict what strength the winds will be but could be reaching storm force during the night on West and North coasts with very heavy rain but she said winds will gust to 120 kmh.

Last edited by Storm 10; 20-10-2014 at 10:29.
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20-10-2014, 11:35   #5
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Met eireann have upgraded to orange alert now
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20-10-2014, 11:53   #6
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the met.ie orange warning is only for the most north western counties with the majority of the country under a yellow warning. Possibly the most worrying thing for me is that I have to travel tonight ( only through Kildare) but there are a lot of large trees along the way and they still have a lot of leaves left on them, some of these trees have already fell in the last few windy periods so I know its a possibility.
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20-10-2014, 12:06   #7
 
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Very poor warning to be honest, they have the same wind speeds under both orange and yellow warnings. what's the betting it will all go orange or even red before the day is out



National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo

Strong to gale force south to southwest winds will become gale force west or northwest overnight with gusts of 90 to 110km/h. But squalls to 120km/h. are likely in exposed areas for a time overnight.

Issued:
Monday 20 October 2014 11:00

Valid:
Monday 20 October 2014 19:00 to Tuesday 21 October 2014 14:00


STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Galway and Roscommon

Strong to gale force south to southwest winds will become gale force west or northwest overnight with gusts of 90 to 110km/h. But squalls to 120km/h in some exposed parts of the northwest and north for a time overnight.

Issued:
Monday 20 October 2014 11:00

Valid:
Monday 20 October 2014 19:00 to Tuesday 21 October 2014 14:00
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20-10-2014, 12:23   #8
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Appalling sensationalisation by the Indo, Hurricane of 75 km/h to hit. FFS. The Met should be crucifying them for ramping and upsetting vulnerable people.
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20-10-2014, 12:29   #9
howlinwolf
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larbre34 View Post
Appalling sensationalisation by the Indo, Hurricane of 75 km/h to hit. FFS. The Met should be crucifying them for ramping and upsetting vulnerable people.


couldn't agree more, its disgraceful stuff just to sell a few more papers, majority of people know this but some people wont and will start to panic a little when they think a hurricane is coming.
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20-10-2014, 12:47   #10
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The upgraded warning reflects the stronger winds shown on the ECM for the northwest. Met E must have more confidence in that now since they've changed the forecast since morning.

Still not looking at anything exceptional but perhaps something closer to the recent stormy weather we had for northwestern coastal counties tonight.
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20-10-2014, 13:35   #11
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Yeah, latest models have it a little more intense than the last few days.

Interestingly it could turn quite interesting as this feature exits the east coast of England.

It winds up quite a lot and could give some very strong gusts into more built of areas of easter, even southeastern England.

One to watch now for sure.
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20-10-2014, 13:45   #12
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I missed the Beeb forecast at 1330 - What do the British MO make of it??
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20-10-2014, 13:50   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Birdnuts View Post
I missed the Beeb forecast at 1330 - What do the British MO make of it??
A Yellow warning. 80 mph gusts possible for northern Scotland coasts.

Quote:
The remains of Hurricane Gonzalo are running across the Atlantic, reaching the UK on Monday night, bringing a period of strong winds to the UK. The strongest winds are expected on Tuesday as the low pressure clears eastwards; some uncertainty remains in peak windspeeds but there remains the potential for disruption to travel, especially as the strongest winds coincide with the morning rush hour in places. Fallen leaves impeding drainage increases the risk of surface water affecting roads, while some damage to trees is possible, given that many are still in full leaf.
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20-10-2014, 19:03   #14
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Be a bit rough for a time off Donegal, Sligo, North Mayo between 1 and 3 am and some strong winds for a while in the early hours down a long the west coast but other than that nothing of note really. Some prolonged, squally showers crossing the country around midnight and some of these could be on the heavy side.

It all passes through quickly enough and I suspect tomorrow few will know anything occurred.
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20-10-2014, 19:08   #15
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12Z EURO4 is a bit different to previous runs and shows stronger winds on the northwest coast tonight. Touching 90 km/h sustained there around midnight.

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