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Possible Storm / Strong Wind Event 2nd November

  • 28-10-2013 11:08am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Been looking at the charts over on weatheronline and it seems that there is another possible wind event for the north of the country on Sunday 3rd November...

    6 days out and the latest GFS (06z) has this low is at 964.. I'd like a more expert opinion on this, what's your thoughts?

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭airman737


    Evelyn mentioned this yesterday. Another week of model watching :-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,089 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Yep and in a week a lot can change! But will be keeping an eye on this all the same!

    Ireland and Scotland could be wild! (We'll show England how its done!)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yea one to watch but very little detail can be given on the placement and depth of any low pressure system at the moment. A host of options presented in the ECMWF ensembles.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    GFS ensembles showing alot of options indeed this far out , from weak to strong lows up north , to split lows to one impacting more of the West and south... Its ALL to play for ...


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    Stay Tuned .... :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    I'm not going to follow this one. I'm going to let it be a surprise.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Oh this is verging on the snow watching for me! Not sure my heart can take it :-P so I'm gonna do the same as Red Nissan - let it be a surprise!


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    leahyl wrote: »
    Oh this is verging on the snow watching for me! Not sure my heart can take it :-P so I'm gonna do the same as Red Nissan - let it be a surprise!

    That's the whole fun in it :P

    Latest charts have it further north now :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    That's the whole fun in it :P

    Latest charts have it further north now :pac:

    ECM and UKMO take the low directly over Ireland, UKMO weaker than the ECM.

    Latest GFS has it up north but also sends a second smaller low tracking over the north of the country giving most places some strong winds.

    Details don't really matter at the moment anyway, the models will have changed again by tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    In the nearer term there is an period that is of great interest and concern.

    And it is nearer 84/96hrs.

    Really intense Jetstream comes out of North America and a worrying little surface disturbance is progged near the right entrance of the Jet, just north of the Azores.

    The ingredients are there for an explosive storm to develop, however the risk is low at the minute.

    Looking at the ECMWF ensembles there are some members that develop a system that hits Ireland as early as Friday.

    This is before the other period of concern later in the weekend.

    Rtavn6014.png


    Rtavn601.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    In the nearer term there is an period that is of great interest and concern.

    And it is nearer 84/96hrs.

    Really intense Jetstream comes out of North America and a worrying little surface disturbance is progged near the right entrance of the Jet, just north of the Azores.

    The ingredients are there for an explosive storm to develop, however the risk is low at the minute.

    Looking at the ECMWF ensembles there are some members that develop a system that hits Ireland as early as Friday.

    This is before the other period of concern later in the weekend.

    Chinese model (lol) shows that happening, both systems. The old "1, 2 Uniflu".

    7EB3lWi.png


    Which reminded me a bit of....

    Rcfsr_1_1997122412.png


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    I preferred the following December's storm Maq. Can't beat sting jets :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The GEM develops Friday's potential low. The other models keep it weaker/further south.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    The models really are showing a conveyer belt of nasty lows being hurled across the Atlantic at the moment. As of this morning, there seems to be almost universal support for a period of stormy weather around Sunday 3rd and some small support for a low around Friday 1st. The Sunday storm looks almost locked in, but as it stands, while windy what the ECM and GFS are showing this morning looks a tad too filled out to bring real disruption, though there are ENS members showing much more violent developments. Extremely fascinating period of weather, and you know, the brightness between these stormy conditions is lovely and clear, and very autumnal.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    6z GFS takes the 3rd November low a lot farther north with much less of a storm impact felt, a blustery day, winds from the northwest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Ya 6z GFS shows nothing out of the ordinary really but its only one run and plenty of time to chop and change


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Ensemble 6 would be interesting...

    gens-6-1-84.png?6


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars



    Want this one please,the first interesting storm for the SE decided to miss us completely the other day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GFS has shifted Saturday's low closer to us again. Off the northwest coast around 970mb. Gales to strong gales along western coasts touching storm force on southwest coasts, if that were to verify.

    Doesn't develop Friday's potential low at all.

    We'll see what the other models do, expect further changes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭acassells80


    Flying to America on Friday morning so hoping the issue with Friday is a non event


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GEM has dropped the development of Friday's low but ramped up Saturday's storm into a sub-965mb low, winds would be a bit stronger than the GFS run. Will take a closer look at that later.

    I think overall the chance of anything happening on Friday are decreasing, but increasing for Saturday. We'll see what the ECM thinks.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Nobody wants to jump the gun here, I see. Probably wise, but we're close to locking in on a very windy Saturday now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yes a deep depression expected to track across Ireland.

    At the moment the storm peaks just to our west and begins to fill as it moves east but any timing change could place extreme winds over us.

    At the moment looking very windy with storm force winds off the west coast.

    Rtavn841.png

    Rtavn1021.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    A few notable ensembles this evening for Saturday

    gens-11-1-90.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    A windy day, at least, looks likely. Gales along Atlantic coasts looks probable. Something more intense than that looks possible.

    We should have a better idea this time tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    A few notable ensembles this evening for Saturday

    gens-11-1-90.png?18

    Good God that looks nasty!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    Crap. I'm at a wedding that day in clare. Looks like I'll be packing warm clothes/tights/coat!


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,926 ✭✭✭✭Esel


    Crap. I'm at a wedding that day in clare. Looks like I'll be packing tight, warm clothes!
    FYP. And warn the bride to have good ballast on her train! :)

    I hope a bit of frivolity is allowed in this forum. :o

    Not your ornery onager



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    Esel wrote: »
    FYP. And warn the bride to have good ballast on her train! :)

    I hope a bit of frivolity is allowed in this forum. :o


    I actually thought I had typed that when I first read the response.... Rofl


    Back on topic, looks like a lot of wind anyways. Any of the knowledgable people tell me if it'll be rain too?


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,926 ✭✭✭✭Esel


    I actually thought I had typed that when I first read the response.... Rofl


    Back on topic, looks like a lot of wind anyways. Any of the knowledgable people tell me if it'll be rain too?
    I'm definitely not a weather expert - I usually can't even tell when it's just about to rain, unless it is really obvious (i.e. ominous black clouds, preferably with stuff hanging from them, rapidly heading my way). But the 'feels like rain' thing just does not happen to me.

    Anyhow, in spite of the above, I would be reasonably confident that a weather event such as that under discussion here will be accompanied by copious amounts of wind-driven precipitation. Especially in Clare! :pac:

    Seriously though - stay well away from the seashore - and the Cliffs of Moher or for that matter anywhere with any adjacent steep drop.

    Oh, almost forgot! People trying to catch the bouquet should take the prevailing wind speed and direction into consideration. :p

    Not your ornery onager



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Nasty little depression showing on 12z GFS for Saturday. Yet ECM seems to not develop the potential lows at all.


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