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28-10-2013, 11:08   #1
tylercollins
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Possible Storm / Strong Wind Event 2nd November

Been looking at the charts over on weatheronline and it seems that there is another possible wind event for the north of the country on Sunday 3rd November...

6 days out and the latest GFS (06z) has this low is at 964.. I'd like a more expert opinion on this, what's your thoughts?


Last edited by tylercollins; 28-10-2013 at 12:01.
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28-10-2013, 11:40   #2
airman737
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Evelyn mentioned this yesterday. Another week of model watching :-)
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28-10-2013, 11:51   #3
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Yep and in a week a lot can change! But will be keeping an eye on this all the same!

Ireland and Scotland could be wild! (We'll show England how its done!)
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28-10-2013, 12:54   #4
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Yea one to watch but very little detail can be given on the placement and depth of any low pressure system at the moment. A host of options presented in the ECMWF ensembles.
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28-10-2013, 13:48   #5
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GFS ensembles showing alot of options indeed this far out , from weak to strong lows up north , to split lows to one impacting more of the West and south... Its ALL to play for ...





Stay Tuned ....
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28-10-2013, 17:12   #6
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I'm not going to follow this one. I'm going to let it be a surprise.
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28-10-2013, 20:01   #7
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Oh this is verging on the snow watching for me! Not sure my heart can take it :-P so I'm gonna do the same as Red Nissan - let it be a surprise!
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28-10-2013, 20:03   #8
tylercollins
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leahyl View Post
Oh this is verging on the snow watching for me! Not sure my heart can take it :-P so I'm gonna do the same as Red Nissan - let it be a surprise!
That's the whole fun in it

Latest charts have it further north now
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28-10-2013, 20:21   #9
maquiladora
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tylercollins View Post
That's the whole fun in it

Latest charts have it further north now
ECM and UKMO take the low directly over Ireland, UKMO weaker than the ECM.

Latest GFS has it up north but also sends a second smaller low tracking over the north of the country giving most places some strong winds.

Details don't really matter at the moment anyway, the models will have changed again by tomorrow.
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28-10-2013, 22:23   #10
Sleety_Rain
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In the nearer term there is an period that is of great interest and concern.

And it is nearer 84/96hrs.

Really intense Jetstream comes out of North America and a worrying little surface disturbance is progged near the right entrance of the Jet, just north of the Azores.

The ingredients are there for an explosive storm to develop, however the risk is low at the minute.

Looking at the ECMWF ensembles there are some members that develop a system that hits Ireland as early as Friday.

This is before the other period of concern later in the weekend.




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28-10-2013, 23:02   #11
maquiladora
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Originally Posted by Weathercheck View Post
In the nearer term there is an period that is of great interest and concern.

And it is nearer 84/96hrs.

Really intense Jetstream comes out of North America and a worrying little surface disturbance is progged near the right entrance of the Jet, just north of the Azores.

The ingredients are there for an explosive storm to develop, however the risk is low at the minute.

Looking at the ECMWF ensembles there are some members that develop a system that hits Ireland as early as Friday.

This is before the other period of concern later in the weekend.
Chinese model (lol) shows that happening, both systems. The old "1, 2 Uniflu".




Which reminded me a bit of....

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28-10-2013, 23:20   #12
 
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I preferred the following December's storm Maq. Can't beat sting jets
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29-10-2013, 08:14   #13
maquiladora
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The GEM develops Friday's potential low. The other models keep it weaker/further south.



Last edited by maquiladora; 29-10-2013 at 08:29.
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29-10-2013, 09:34   #14
 
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The models really are showing a conveyer belt of nasty lows being hurled across the Atlantic at the moment. As of this morning, there seems to be almost universal support for a period of stormy weather around Sunday 3rd and some small support for a low around Friday 1st. The Sunday storm looks almost locked in, but as it stands, while windy what the ECM and GFS are showing this morning looks a tad too filled out to bring real disruption, though there are ENS members showing much more violent developments. Extremely fascinating period of weather, and you know, the brightness between these stormy conditions is lovely and clear, and very autumnal.
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29-10-2013, 10:24   #15
 
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6z GFS takes the 3rd November low a lot farther north with much less of a storm impact felt, a blustery day, winds from the northwest.
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