Predictions invited on outcome of Tipperary Constituency General Election 2016?

Xenophile · 08-06-2013 7:43am #1

Tipperary South and Tipperary North currently with three seats each are to be merged into one five seat constituency at the next election.

The outcome is shaping up to be very interesting. Tom Hayes’s recent appointment was strategic or expedient maybe, some would call even cynical in an effort to hold on to two F.G seats in Tipperary.

It is rumoured in his area that Seamus Healy will retire from politics before the election.

I expect the result to be as follows, elected in no particular order

Tom Hayes F.G.

Alan Kelly Lab.

Another F.G. from Northern part of the constituency

Fianna Fail F.F from Northern part of the constituency

Michael Lowry Ind.

Don’t think Mattie McGrath will make it, apart from anything else geographically is very badly placed in the county.

Davin Stand · 08-06-2013 12:00pm

I would not rule out a FF candidate from the South of the County. Large amount of votes around Clonmel Local Electoral area. Would that not be a more likely result that 4 TDs from North Tipp and only 1 (our new junior Minister!!) from South Tipp.

Xenophile · 08-06-2013 12:35pm

Davin Stand wrote: »

I would not rule out a FF candidate from the South of the County. Large amount of votes around Clonmel Local Electoral area. Would that not be a more likely result that 4 TDs from North Tipp and only 1 (our new junior Minister!!) from South Tipp.

Just cannot see any strong candidate emerging from the south, the party seems to be in disarray here. Maybe someone from the North Tipp will give us an opinion.

cml387 · 08-06-2013 10:17pm

Xenophile wrote: »

Just cannot see any strong candidate emerging from the south, the party seems to be in disarray here. Maybe someone from the North Tipp will give us an opinion.

Surely Siobhan Ambrose's time has come. Attractive candidate, no baggage from the previous lot. I'd say if FF run her she'll do well.

I won't be voting for her of course but I reckon she has a chance.

Cerbera · 08-06-2013 11:00pm

I predict Lowry won't run next time and I predict Alan Kelly will struggle to get elected as he's more Fine Gael than the Fine Gael members and will have lost a lot of the Labor vote.

Micheal Lowry (the son) will probably run and may even make it, but it's unlikely he will.

I think the FF candidate(s) will be the ones who pull the biggest votes and I reckon Mattie McGrath will make it.

Xenophile · 09-06-2013 9:30am

Cerbera wrote: »

Alan Kelly will struggle to get elected .

There is a large working class vote in South Tipperary, he needs to open a clinic in Clonmel. He may also have a running mate in Phil Prendergast as the chances are she will hardly be re-elected to Europe. The Labour has been very good to her giving her that nice plum job in Europe. Some of Healy's votes will go to Labour and of course Kelly will get many second preferences from Fine Gael.

Xenophile · 09-06-2013 9:38am

cml387 wrote: »

Surely Siobhan Ambrose's time has come. Attractive candidate, no baggage from the previous lot. I'd say if FF run her she'll do well.

She is too associated with old school Fianna Fail through her parents, lovely people, who worked their socks off in the days of Haughy, Renolds, Ahern and Cowen. Is too well associated with people who made the mistakes of the past.

Fries-With-That · 09-06-2013 9:58pm

Interesting speculation,

FF haven't got a contender in the wings in North Tipperary.

Noel Coonan will make his seat for FG
Tom Hayes should also get elected for FG
Michael Lowery will get his seat and have a running mate that might pinch a seat.
Alan Kelly will struggle to retain his seat as will all labour candidates.
Mattie McGrath should hold his seat.

So I see it as

2 FG
2 Lowery Party
1 Independent FF

Fries-With-That · 09-06-2013 10:13pm

Xenophile wrote: »

There is a large working class vote in South Tipperary. Some of Healy's votes will go to Labour and of course Kelly will get many second preferences from Fine Gael.

The labour party is no longer seen by 'the working class' as their party, I think that people no longer view labour politicians as supporters of the working class.

When it comes to peoples pockets people have long memories and the perception is that this government have hit those voters with less in their pockets harder than everyone else.

The blame for this will be laid at the door of the labour party and their candidates will suffer badly.

From talking to people I get the impression that people voted for labour as a kind of safety valve to curb the enthusiasm for austerity favoured by FG and far from being a safety valve they have endorsed all the cutbacks.

cml387 · 09-06-2013 10:19pm

The sheer size of the constituency will be a problem for independents.
Big parties can split the county. But on the borders of Offaly and Galway, who knows Mattie Mc Grath?

Grab All Association · 10-06-2013 1:51am

In North Tipp

Alan Kelly will lose his seat as most of his support comes from the lower ormond barony in North Tipp which will be part of the South Offaly constituency and plus what has he ever done for South Tipperary.

Michael Lowry will keep his seat he will have support reaching from part of Nenagh-Thurles-Killenaule-Cashel

Noel Coonan Templemore-Roscrea should be safe

Like what is happening with these new Municipal districts. South Tipp will end up with 3 seats and North Tipp 2 seats.

Paarthurnax · 10-06-2013 10:06am

Transfers are going to be crucial in this election so it depends who else stands besides the obvious candidates. Tom Hayes should bring in Noel Coonan, Lowry will pull in enough even though he loses a sizeable base in Lower Ormond, Mattie Mcgrath should pick up on the FF votes. Alan Kelly will struggle as will Labour countrywide. The 5th seat will depend on who stands and where the transfers go.

laoch na mona · 10-06-2013 10:23am

hopefully hayes and lowery lose there seats. i would like to see sinn fein get a seat and maybe wuag get 2 but thats just wishful thinking, i fear that people will revert to FF as always

Xenophile · 10-06-2013 9:11pm

Paarthurnax wrote: »

Transfers are going to be crucial in this election so it depends who else stands besides the obvious candidates. Tom Hayes should bring in Noel Coonan, Lowry will pull in enough even though he loses a sizeable base in Lower Ormond, Mattie Mcgrath should pick up on the FF votes. Alan Kelly will struggle as will Labour countrywide.

Mattie McGrath is too isolated and many in FF resent his success. You are probably right about Coonan.

Let me say this loud and clear...........Alan Kelly is the only career politician in Tipperary and believe it or not he is South Tipperary's best hope at representing their views since Richard Mulcahy, leader of the pro treaty party after the shooting of Michael Collins represented South Tipperary in the 1950's as Minister For Education. I expect Kelly to put in the work to bring him to the cabinet table at some point in his career.

Davin Stand · 10-06-2013 9:26pm

In a 5 seat constituency a candidate needs to get 16% of the vote to reach the quota. It is hard to imagine that Fianna Fail would get less than 16% of the vote. In the last election at their lowest point ever, FF finished in 4th place in both South and North Tipp.

Xenophile · 10-06-2013 9:33pm

Davin Stand wrote: »

In a 5 seat constituency a candidate needs to get 16% of the vote to reach the quota. It is hard to imagine that Fianna Fail would get less than 16% of the vote. In the last election at their lowest point ever, FF finished in 4th place in both South and North Tipp.

I agree completely Fianna Fail will take a seat.

tipptom · 12-06-2013 3:40pm

Xenophile wrote: »

Mattie McGrath is too isolated and many in FF resent his success. You are probably right about Coonan.

Let me say this loud and clear...........Alan Kelly is the only career politician in Tipperary and believe it or not he is South Tipperary's best hope at representing their views since Richard Mulcahy, leader of the pro treaty party after the shooting of Michael Collins represented South Tipperary in the 1950's as Minister For Education. I expect Kelly to put in the work to bring him to the cabinet table at some point in his career.

There is no doubting Kellys naked ambition and his brothers powerful connections to help him with that,but he hasnt a cat in hells chance of getting re-elected after going back on his own promises and his partys disgraceful self-admitted lies to get in to government.
He will go the same as most of them in labour at the next election with their remaining 6 TDs if they are lucky in mostly City districts.

Xenophile · 12-06-2013 6:49pm

tipptom wrote: »

There is no doubting Kellys naked ambition and his brothers powerful connections to help him with that,but he hasnt a cat in hells chance of getting re-elected after going back on his own promises and his partys disgraceful self-admitted lies to get in to government.
He will go the same as most of them in labour at the next election with their remaining 6 TDs if they are lucky in mostly City districts.

Naked ambition without corruption is a good definition of leadership even if it is just at a local level. The Labour votes in South Tipperary will get him over the line and he will also get many second preferences or even # 1's from F.G. voters who are disillusioned with the quality of their own candidates.

I expect the referendum on the Seanad to be defeated and there will be one ore two in South Tipp looking for a seat there and I think that being on Kelly's side will be more than helpful.

Xenophile · 12-06-2013 6:55pm

See Mattie McGrath is at it again today sniping on the proposed abortion legislation.
As Mattie lives just a few miles from Mount Melleray Abbey. He should realise this country now wants Home Rule not Rome Rule.

digzy · 12-06-2013 11:13pm

[QUOTE=

I expect the referendum on the Seanad to be defeated and there will be one ore two in South Tipp looking for a seat there and I think that being on Kelly's side will be more than helpful.[/QUOTE]

Are you serious? I haven't heard a decent argument yet not to abolish it. One of my favourites is 'checks and balances', whatever that means, given that the government of the day control it too.

Only ones who want it are the old farts who feel it is needed on principal or failed politicians looking for a cushy number. The only ones any use in it are Norris and crown. Ross is in the dail now.

Check out the debate on the late late when Ian o Doherty destroyed done Cassidy of the wonderful Finnan fail.

laoch na mona · 12-06-2013 11:21pm

digzy wrote: »

Are you serious? I haven't heard a decent argument yet not to abolish it. One of my favourites is 'checks and balances', whatever that means, given that the government of the day control it too.

Only ones who want it are the old farts who feel it is needed on principal or failed politicians looking for a cushy number. The only ones any use in it are Norris and crown. Ross is in the dail now.

Check out the debate on the late late when Ian o Doherty destroyed done Cassidy of the wonderful Finnan fail.

well it should be reformed seen as the dail is packed with idiots who need to be kept in check. Also I reckon the referendum will end up on more then just the seanad. the govt will likely just scrap that part of the constitution which also covers the rule of the president

digzy · 12-06-2013 11:51pm

laoch na mona wrote: »

well it should be reformed seen as the dail is packed with idiots who need to be kept in check. Also I reckon the referendum will end up on more then just the seanad. the govt will likely just scrap that part of the constitution which also covers the rule of the president

In what way should it be reformed?
As regards the 'idiots' in the dail, whether you like or not they've received a mandate from the irish people. Something that many of the seanad members have failed to achieve.

Xenophile · 13-06-2013 9:09am

Replying to digzy......."I haven't heard a decent argument yet not to abolish it." This is not the place to debate An Seanad but I cannot leave your comments go unchallenged

FORMER TÁNAISTE AND Justice Minister Michael McDowell has mounted a strong defence of the Seanad as the campaign to abolish the upper house got into full swing today.

McDowell is part of the Democracy Matters group which will be campaigning for retention and reform of the Seanad in the forthcoming referendum and told RTÉ Radio this morning that the chamber is important to the country.

“People like Mary Robinson will not be heard again in our parliament,” he told Myles Dungan on the Today with Pat Kenny programme referring to the former president who was a Labour senator in the 1980s.

http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A10155208%3A133%3A12%2D06%2D2013%3A

He said the upper house is able to scrutinise legislation to a greater degree and could hypothetically petition the president of the day to put a piece of legislation to a referendum of the people.

“People forget about that. That’s a particular provision in the Constitution that enables the wishes of the majority of the Dáil not to have a manner properly debated dealt with,” he said.

He said that proposals to reform the Dáil would not lead to an “upgraded and revamped” lower house and said that Taoiseach Enda Kenny could implement most measures announced yesterday right now instead of changing the Constitution.

Muppets and clowns
McDowell also rejected claims from presenter Dungan that there are and have been “muppets” in the Seanad: “I’ve never come across a muppet in the Seanad, never once.”

“I’d challenge either of you and I’d ask [Fine Gael TD] Paschal [Donohoe] to identify a muppet in the Seanad, because there are a fair few clowns in the Dáil, if you don’t mind me saying so.”
The barrister later said that the Seanad could give greater scrutiny to legislation concerning the European Union, adding: ”Ming Flanagan and Mick Wallace and various other people, Michael Healy Rae, will not be interested in doing that type of work”

On the same programme, the Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe said that his party and the government believed that a country the size of Ireland could have more democracy with fewer politicians. ”This isn’t a smash and grab, this isn’t a power grab,” he insisted.

McDowell later said that abolition of the Seanad “is a bit like saying I don’t think the fire escape in my house is very good, let’s tear it out completely or I am not sure of my alarm system let’s tear it out as well”.

“If something isn’t working well, you make it work well,” he added.

With all due respects if you want to inform yourself as to the reasons for retaining the Senate you can do so on the Democracy Matters website
http://democracymatters.ie/

laoch na mona · 13-06-2013 5:17pm

digzy wrote: »

In what way should it be reformed?
As regards the 'idiots' in the dail, whether you like or not they've received a mandate from the irish people. Something that many of the seanad members have failed to achieve.

make it democratic

digzy · 13-06-2013 7:57pm

laoch na mona wrote: »

make it democratic

we already have that it's called the dail

Xenophile · 13-06-2013 9:23pm

digzy wrote: »

we already have that it's called the dail

This thread is about predicting the outcome in the next General Election, maybe you would like to give us your prediction.

tipptom · 13-06-2013 10:10pm

I would prefer to not take my instructions on what way to vote on a referendum from somebody who kept the most corrupt party in Irish history in government so he and his right wing PD idiots could retain power for as long as possible.
His reason for wanting to retain the Senate is he wants to start a new party,knowing that he cannot possibly get elected himself as he has been rejected by the people but will use his new influential TDs to get him back to the house without having to rely on the great unwashed vote.

Xenophile · 13-06-2013 10:28pm

tipptom wrote: »

I would prefer to not take my instructions on what way to vote on a referendum

Please note that this thread is about predictions for the constituency of Tipperary after the next election. Plenty of opportunity for people to voice their views on the Seanad on the Politics forum. Politely yours OP.

digzy · 13-06-2013 11:36pm

Xenophile wrote: »

This thread is about predicting the outcome in the next General Election, maybe you would like to give us your prediction.

to be fair it was you who made the first ref to the seanad.

As regards a prediction on an election without knowing the candidates involved...

digzy · 14-06-2013 12:00am

Xenophile wrote: »

Replying to digzy......."I haven't heard a decent argument yet not to abolish it." This is not the place to debate An Seanad but I cannot leave your comments go unchallenged

FORMER TÁNAISTE AND Justice Minister Michael McDowell has mounted a strong defence of the Seanad as the campaign to abolish the upper house got into full swing today.

McDowell is part of the Democracy Matters group which will be campaigning for retention and reform of the Seanad in the forthcoming referendum and told RTÉ Radio this morning that the chamber is important to the country.

“People like Mary Robinson will not be heard again in our parliament,” he told Myles Dungan on the Today with Pat Kenny programme referring to the former president who was a Labour senator in the 1980s.

http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A10155208%3A133%3A12%2D06%2D2013%3A

He said the upper house is able to scrutinise legislation to a greater degree and could hypothetically petition the president of the day to put a piece of legislation to a referendum of the people.

“People forget about that. That’s a particular provision in the Constitution that enables the wishes of the majority of the Dáil not to have a manner properly debated dealt with,” he said.

He said that proposals to reform the Dáil would not lead to an “upgraded and revamped” lower house and said that Taoiseach Enda Kenny could implement most measures announced yesterday right now instead of changing the Constitution.

Muppets and clowns
McDowell also rejected claims from presenter Dungan that there are and have been “muppets” in the Seanad: “I’ve never come across a muppet in the Seanad, never once.”

“I’d challenge either of you and I’d ask [Fine Gael TD] Paschal [Donohoe] to identify a muppet in the Seanad, because there are a fair few clowns in the Dáil, if you don’t mind me saying so.”
The barrister later said that the Seanad could give greater scrutiny to legislation concerning the European Union, adding: ”Ming Flanagan and Mick Wallace and various other people, Michael Healy Rae, will not be interested in doing that type of work”

On the same programme, the Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe said that his party and the government believed that a country the size of Ireland could have more democracy with fewer politicians. ”This isn’t a smash and grab, this isn’t a power grab,” he insisted.

McDowell later said that abolition of the Seanad “is a bit like saying I don’t think the fire escape in my house is very good, let’s tear it out completely or I am not sure of my alarm system let’s tear it out as well”.

“If something isn’t working well, you make it work well,” he added.

With all due respects if you want to inform yourself as to the reasons for retaining the Senate you can do so on the Democracy Matters website
http://democracymatters.ie/

you're correct. This aint the thread for discussion on seanad reform. There is a thread on the politics forum i've already read. It's quite interesting.It's convinced me of voting to abolish the seanad even more.

In reference to your points above,

1. A seanad seat isn't a prerequisite for higher office. There are quite a few able people who've passed through it and remain in it. However,I dont feel the expense involved is justified.

2. Has the seanad ever petitioned the president to put a referendum to the people? I doubt it. As I've said already, the government of the day control the seanad.

3. while I'm no fan of the hypocritical actions of ming or wallace, both have achieved a mandate. mc dowell hasn't one. He's trying to imply that you need the seanad due to a superior intellect of member. Now i cant name too many seanad members but I dont have much faith in fidelma healy eames or mary louise o donnell to scrutinise european legislation compared to say alan shatter. In any case there's a team of civil servants, attorney general and other lawyers to advise any government on these issues. When bertie rewarded eoghan harris a seat for backing him on the late late a few years back I knew it was a spent docket.

4.As regards the fire escape analogy, sure anyone could use an analogy to get across their point. I've an old tv. The picture is poor and it burns electricity. Should I waste even more money trying to fix the picture knowing that it'll still cost a bomb on fuel or do I get rid of it knowing it's outlived it's usefulness. Probably a silly analogy but not much worse than mc dowell's.

McDowell aint god. He's highly intelligent, capable,eloquent, professionally successful but he still hasn't a mandate. Sorry, his argument isn't compelling for me. We've too many politicians as it is.

Mary lou made a good point last week, that given the general cynicism amongst the public for politicians she felt that if there was a referendum to scrap the dail, it'd be carried!

As taxpayers we all should have a say on how public money is spent. I dont agree with how a fair chunk of it's spent but if I get an opportunity to vote against what i believe is a talking shop i'll take it. I'd much rather the 10-50 million -depending who you listen to-was spent on greater public services or ideally reduced taxation.

The Woodcock · 14-06-2013 5:18pm

There's speculation in the latest issue of The Phoenix that Mattie McGrath is being courted by FF leadership and may well rejoin the party before the next election. Like him or loathe him, Mattie does have a national profile and would be a good bet for a seat with the FF vote behind him.

Lowry will probably run again and will definitely get in if he does. Comments above that he would pull in a running mate are well off the mark in my view. There's no-one in his party who has the calibre to be a TD.

Noel Coonan is a poor representative for North Tipp and I can't think of anything notable he has done since elected. Nevertheless he will get in on the back of the strong farmer vote.

Tom Hayes and Alan Kelly have benefited from the profile associated with their ministerial portfolios. Kelly is a slick operator with resources behind him and will make it back in in spite of Labour's poor showing.

Seamus Healy has done remarkably well to secure a seat before but his political machine is almost non-existent outside Clonmel and in a bigger constituency that will work against him.

So two FG, and one each from FF, Labour and Independent is my prediction.