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Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

  • 13-03-2013 7:25am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Well a truly exceptional model output this morning particularly the ECM which would plunge Ireland into an extended freeze from this Sunday.

    As it is so late in the season temperatures by day would rise to 3-5c but drop sharply in any wintry showers and by night drop well below freezing.

    Wintry precipitation is likely as early as Sunday in parts as a low pressure system lies over Ireland giving periods of prolonged precip in places and also feeding in showers to coastal parts.

    A surge of even colder air is then expected to advance from the northeast later Monday 18th March bringing wintry showers to eastern coasts and spreading inland.

    From the period Tuesday 19th March to Saturday 23rd Ireland is expected to be in a deeply unstable arctic flow. Winds will vary but predominately be from the east and north. Some low pressure features may move south across the country at times giving prolonged periods of sleet or snow. Eastern and northern areas will be at risk of wintry showers/heavy snow showers throughout the period.

    It is mid-March so snow-cover will likely retreat during daytime in any sunshine but there is still a risk of significant snowfall during the week with disruption likely to occur if the current model output materialises.

    High ground will be particularly exposed with significant appreciations of snow likely in ground above 200m.

    A few charts to wet the appetite.
    This has a November 2010 feel to it.

    Recm1201.gif

    Recm1441.gif

    Recm1921.gif


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,671 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Oh god... here we go again... Good luck everyone!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Are people allowed to express the view that this isn't welcome? I think it's a horrific prospect myself.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 21,635 Mod ✭✭✭✭helimachoptor


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    Are people allowed to express the view that this isn't welcome? I think it's a horrific prospect myself.

    Nope!


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    Are people allowed to express the view that this isn't welcome? I think it's a horrific prospect myself.

    Not on this thread.

    Met É have jumped right on board with this, which in itself makes me wary. They went model jumping early in the season and both the forecasts and outcomes were a bust. Im sticking with my FI at +72, if this is still progged on saturday itll raise my eyebrows. Too much prospect of modification for now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Not on this thread.

    Met É have jumped right on board with this, which in itself makes me wary. They went model jumping early in the season and both the forecasts and outcomes were a bust. Im sticking with my FI at +72, if this is still progged on saturday itll raise my eyebrows. Too much prospect of modification for now.

    I think it will happen, objectively the evolution looks fairly robust to my eyes, there seems more margin for error than with the easterlies earlier in the year (as was the case with this week's effort). I will defer from posting any more unpopular views so ;) but I've firmly tipped into 'I want my spring god dammit camp'. I think for those with the wheels and the motivation there will be spectacular scenes if you make a trip to higher ground. On lower ground I can see a hail/wet snow mix tearing the sad looking blossom off the hawthorne trees. Cavan, Wicklow the usual suspects for deep snow.

    On a side note, wasn't the CFS model consistently progging a historically cold March for many months? Very similar synoptics to what we are now seeing in the near-frame model output? Interesting for sure.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Spring really getting pushed back this March! Clocks will be going forward in a couple of weeks :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Its unfortunate that things are kicking off so late in the year. Definatly had the potential to deleiver something akin to 2010 if it had only been a few weeks ago. As WC mentioned the sun is now a big player at this time of year. Monday showed that even with perfect air temps and dewpoints, snow struggles to settle with a March sun that rapidly heats up any dark surfaces like roads,roofs, bare soil etc. to well above freezing. For a decent snow cover at this time of year in lower lying areas, you need heavy prolonged snowfall(not just showers) and constant cloud cover to minimize melting. Mind you the ingredients are there for such an event in this set-up. Such events are however rare in this country away from altitude. I've no doubt though that hilly/mountainous areas are in for a good blastering as I've seen similiar conditions well into April in the Wicklows.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,596 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Very exciting! :)

    The only consolation I can offer to those in despair is that over the last couple of years, Springs have generally been mild with fine weather....then look what happend to the summers!

    Spring 2006 (March and April particularly) was cold.... then we had what might be considered a pretty good summer (recorded 31c here in July 2006).


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Its good to see Met Eireann on board and it is coming into the reasonably reliable time frame. Met Eireann have the possibility of sleet and snow for Friday so not too far away at all!


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,596 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Monday showed that even with perfect air temps and dewpoints, snow struggles to settle with a March sun that rapidly heats up any dark surfaces like roads,roofs, bare soil etc. .

    Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

    Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,604 ✭✭✭dave1982


    Not again I've just got used to the fact I will have no snow this year and now this happens:rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,377 ✭✭✭zenno


    This seems very unusual for nearly mid march. Where is the jet-stream in all this that pushes in our usually wet and mild weather ? it must be way down south or something instead of pushing across us as usual at this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,089 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Friends in Spain cant even take the horses out of the stables because of the relentless rains down there. She reported the other day that the soils and plants were floating out of the flower pots!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    DOCARCH wrote: »

    Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

    Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.
    I believe it was the wind that was the primary limitation.
    Radar loops proved this in that showers moved quickly,so dumped their load over a wide area.
    There were enough of them and they were always going to make landfall but less wind and they would have lingered and merged leading to significant cover instead of the sunshine melt shower sunshine melt shower combo we got.

    Imho any 'we told you so' chest beating about being right all along by those expecting little is wrong.
    Those people ended up being more right because of the wind than the rest of us but for all the bleating,they were wrong too.

    The day we stop learning is ...


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

    Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.
    I agree with the evaporation theory, I had a snow shower around 6pm which gave a dusting, the sun was gone and the temp was 0c yet it disappeared fairly quickly. The dry valleys in Antarctica (the weirdest places on the planet!) are snow free because extremely dry katabatic winds blow off the plateau.
    (Don't worry I'm not comparing our climate to Antarctica's )


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    I agree with the evaporation theory, I had a snow shower around 6pm which gave a dusting, the sun was gone and the temp was 0c yet it disappeared fairly quickly. The dry valleys in Antarctica (the weirdest places on the planet!) are snow free because extremely dry katabatic winds blow off the plateau.
    (Don't worry I'm not comparing our climate to Antarctica's )

    *cough* *veiled ramp* :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,278 ✭✭✭arctictree


    06z GFS going for a complete snowfest in the Wicklow mountains on Saturday night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,052 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Feck It, we ran out of heating oil last week and were hoping we could get away with just a fire for a few days during this cold snap, but if it's gonna last another week I'll have to raid the piggy bank


  • Registered Users Posts: 43,013 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    Will it be more of this?:D

    89877__90997.1333128032.1280.1280.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,089 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Will it be more of this?:D

    89877__90997.1333128032.1280.1280.jpg

    That should say at the bottom " Vanishes away in 1 gust! "


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  • Registered Users Posts: 84 ✭✭Wicklow Weather


    If we are basing this on model output we can see a colder solution from next week. However its far from model agreement looking at the timimg. Yesterday I posted my weather watch for 17th through to 20th for the cold event to take hold but I pointed out on my page that there was varying degree of temp range depending on which model runs you looked at giving the event coupled with wintry outcome a 30% confidence. What I am seeing this morning is an even fractured solution as the cold solutions seems to be getting pushed out from 18th to 20th in comparison to runs yesterday and Monday. Looking at the spread of output over Ireland its to play for in terms of wintry weather but if the evolution keeps pushing back any further on its timing this could slowly fall apart as we have seen all winter, great charts then dates and timimg moving out lead to disappointment. Wishing this was back in January!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    GFS and ECM are very different. The 06z GFS which is now rolling out has changed dramatically from pervious GFS runs and is now showing westerly turning northwesterly northerly finally north easterly as the low develops and rotates. This has much more modified air temps than the ECM at first, with the coldest upper air along the western seaboard at around 114 hours (Monday morning) then moving across the country. This mornings ECM looks snowy, the GFS looks waaay more marginal, but maybe someone with a better eye for this stuff can correct me.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Will be interesting to see how this pans out. If Jersey of all places can get a blizzard this week then there is "sNOw" reason we can't get a good dumping next week


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    whitebriar wrote: »
    I believe it was the wind that was the primary limitation.
    Radar loops proved this in that showers moved quickly,so dumped their load over a wide area.
    There were enough of them and they were always going to make landfall but less wind and they would have lingered and merged leading to significant cover instead of the sunshine melt shower sunshine melt shower combo we got.

    Imho any 'we told you so' chest beating about being right all along by those expecting little is wrong.
    Those people ended up being more right because of the wind than the rest of us but for all the bleating,they were wrong too.

    The day we stop learning is ...

    agree, if the wind had been half of what it was there would have been less of that squally fragmented mess. There were a few showers here after lunch time that were actually quite hefty with poor visibility but the wind just blew them right over. I think perfect winds for the E coast are slack, so you can get a slight feed of light air from the land (but ppn still comes from the sea). Up to 30/40 km/hr sustained winds winds from the sea are also good but more than that and it gets too messy. Air pressure strangely enough isn't really much of an issue, have seen showers forming at over 1020 hpa


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Prolonged Severe Cold Spell Likely Next Week
    Well a truly exceptional model output this morning particularly the ECM which would plunge Ireland into an extended freeze from this Sunday.

    As it is so late in the season temperatures by day would rise to 3-5c

    :confused: Hardly severe, just a fupping annoyence


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    patneve2 wrote: »
    agree, if the wind had been half of what it was there would have been less of that squally fragmented mess.

    One factor for sure though I think a major contributor was that there was very little troughing at both the lower and upper atmosphere which coincided with the coldest tongue of 850s. This was well modelled days in advance and alluded to on here more than once.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Feck It, we ran out of heating oil last week and were hoping we could get away with just a fire for a few days during this cold snap, but if it's gonna last another week I'll have to raid the piggy bank

    Dig out the 5 gallon drums;)

    Was met.ie hacked? Somebody from there told the Ray Darcy show that we are to have a heatwave for Paddy's Day,he laughed at it too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭compsys


    DOCARCH wrote: »

    Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

    Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.

    Informative post. Thanks. The bickering on here can be annoying sometimes but there's a wealth of information among many members too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Oh God I'm going to London on the 22nd.....this is the first time ever that I'm hoping it doesn't snow :eek:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    leahyl wrote: »
    Oh God I'm going to London on the 22nd.....this is the first time ever that I'm hoping it doesn't snow :eek:

    all those travelling to London on 22nd March, step forward. NOT SO FAST YOU!

    In all seriousness I would predict the chance of daytime transport disruption in Dublin as slight and even less in London, UK Met are posting potential snow for N and E England but milder in the SE


This discussion has been closed.
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