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13-03-2013, 07:25   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

Well a truly exceptional model output this morning particularly the ECM which would plunge Ireland into an extended freeze from this Sunday.

As it is so late in the season temperatures by day would rise to 3-5c but drop sharply in any wintry showers and by night drop well below freezing.

Wintry precipitation is likely as early as Sunday in parts as a low pressure system lies over Ireland giving periods of prolonged precip in places and also feeding in showers to coastal parts.

A surge of even colder air is then expected to advance from the northeast later Monday 18th March bringing wintry showers to eastern coasts and spreading inland.

From the period Tuesday 19th March to Saturday 23rd Ireland is expected to be in a deeply unstable arctic flow. Winds will vary but predominately be from the east and north. Some low pressure features may move south across the country at times giving prolonged periods of sleet or snow. Eastern and northern areas will be at risk of wintry showers/heavy snow showers throughout the period.

It is mid-March so snow-cover will likely retreat during daytime in any sunshine but there is still a risk of significant snowfall during the week with disruption likely to occur if the current model output materialises.

High ground will be particularly exposed with significant appreciations of snow likely in ground above 200m.

A few charts to wet the appetite.
This has a November 2010 feel to it.






Last edited by pistolpetes11; 02-04-2013 at 00:09.
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13-03-2013, 07:36   #2
Rougies
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Oh god... here we go again... Good luck everyone!
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13-03-2013, 07:47   #3
 
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Are people allowed to express the view that this isn't welcome? I think it's a horrific prospect myself.
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13-03-2013, 07:50   #4
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Are people allowed to express the view that this isn't welcome? I think it's a horrific prospect myself.
Nope!
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13-03-2013, 08:02   #5
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Are people allowed to express the view that this isn't welcome? I think it's a horrific prospect myself.
Not on this thread.

Met É have jumped right on board with this, which in itself makes me wary. They went model jumping early in the season and both the forecasts and outcomes were a bust. Im sticking with my FI at +72, if this is still progged on saturday itll raise my eyebrows. Too much prospect of modification for now.
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13-03-2013, 08:11   #6
 
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Not on this thread.

Met É have jumped right on board with this, which in itself makes me wary. They went model jumping early in the season and both the forecasts and outcomes were a bust. Im sticking with my FI at +72, if this is still progged on saturday itll raise my eyebrows. Too much prospect of modification for now.
I think it will happen, objectively the evolution looks fairly robust to my eyes, there seems more margin for error than with the easterlies earlier in the year (as was the case with this week's effort). I will defer from posting any more unpopular views so but I've firmly tipped into 'I want my spring god dammit camp'. I think for those with the wheels and the motivation there will be spectacular scenes if you make a trip to higher ground. On lower ground I can see a hail/wet snow mix tearing the sad looking blossom off the hawthorne trees. Cavan, Wicklow the usual suspects for deep snow.

On a side note, wasn't the CFS model consistently progging a historically cold March for many months? Very similar synoptics to what we are now seeing in the near-frame model output? Interesting for sure.
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13-03-2013, 08:21   #7
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Spring really getting pushed back this March! Clocks will be going forward in a couple of weeks
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13-03-2013, 08:22   #8
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Its unfortunate that things are kicking off so late in the year. Definatly had the potential to deleiver something akin to 2010 if it had only been a few weeks ago. As WC mentioned the sun is now a big player at this time of year. Monday showed that even with perfect air temps and dewpoints, snow struggles to settle with a March sun that rapidly heats up any dark surfaces like roads,roofs, bare soil etc. to well above freezing. For a decent snow cover at this time of year in lower lying areas, you need heavy prolonged snowfall(not just showers) and constant cloud cover to minimize melting. Mind you the ingredients are there for such an event in this set-up. Such events are however rare in this country away from altitude. I've no doubt though that hilly/mountainous areas are in for a good blastering as I've seen similiar conditions well into April in the Wicklows.
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13-03-2013, 08:49   #9
DOCARCH
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Very exciting!

The only consolation I can offer to those in despair is that over the last couple of years, Springs have generally been mild with fine weather....then look what happend to the summers!

Spring 2006 (March and April particularly) was cold.... then we had what might be considered a pretty good summer (recorded 31c here in July 2006).
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13-03-2013, 08:53   #10
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Its good to see Met Eireann on board and it is coming into the reasonably reliable time frame. Met Eireann have the possibility of sleet and snow for Friday so not too far away at all!
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13-03-2013, 08:54   #11
DOCARCH
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Monday showed that even with perfect air temps and dewpoints, snow struggles to settle with a March sun that rapidly heats up any dark surfaces like roads,roofs, bare soil etc. .
Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.
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13-03-2013, 09:20   #12
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Not again I've just got used to the fact I will have no snow this year and now this happens
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13-03-2013, 09:26   #13
 
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This seems very unusual for nearly mid march. Where is the jet-stream in all this that pushes in our usually wet and mild weather ? it must be way down south or something instead of pushing across us as usual at this time.
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13-03-2013, 09:37   #14
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Friends in Spain cant even take the horses out of the stables because of the relentless rains down there. She reported the other day that the soils and plants were floating out of the flower pots!
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13-03-2013, 09:44   #15
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DOCARCH View Post

Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.
I believe it was the wind that was the primary limitation.
Radar loops proved this in that showers moved quickly,so dumped their load over a wide area.
There were enough of them and they were always going to make landfall but less wind and they would have lingered and merged leading to significant cover instead of the sunshine melt shower sunshine melt shower combo we got.

Imho any 'we told you so' chest beating about being right all along by those expecting little is wrong.
Those people ended up being more right because of the wind than the rest of us but for all the bleating,they were wrong too.

The day we stop learning is ...
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