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Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

  • 06-03-2013 7:26am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Opening this for more general discussion on a possible severe cold onslaught from the east,north east.
    This is just a WATCH scenario for now and thread title will change if there are any upgrades closer to the "EVENT"
    Too early to give any details on the Will it snow in my back yard question.

    Lets just talk about its evolution for now and see if we get a strike.

    Fairly impressive FI charts at the moment as we are placed in the freezer.

    BEni1LgCcAEjKbQ.jpg

    Any trolling on this thread will be met with a heavy hand. Be warned


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭mothel


    Redsunset wrote: »
    Opening this for more general discussion on a possible severe cold onslaught from the east,north east.
    This is just a WATCH scenario for now and thread title will change if there are any upgrades closer to the "EVENT"
    Too early to give any details on the Will it snow in my back yard question.

    Lets just talk about its evolution for now and see if we get a strike.

    Fairly impressive FI charts at the moment as we are placed in the freezer.

    BEni1LgCcAEjKbQ.jpg
    What site are these charts from please?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    They are off a premium site. Weatherbell. Joe b and Ryan Maue show these charts in their tweets.

    Earliest indication of change from Met Éireann. Way too early for anything more descriptive.

    "Next week (Monday to Thursday) : Becoming very cold, with frosty nights and with a risk of scattered wintry showers, especially in the northwest, north and east".


  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭jimmy.d


    Redsunset wrote: »
    Opening this for more general discussion on a possible severe cold onslaught from the east,north east.
    This is just a WATCH scenario for now and thread title will change if there are any upgrades closer to the "EVENT"
    Too early to give any details on the Will it snow in my back yard question.

    Lets just talk about its evolution for now and see if we get a strike.

    Fairly impressive FI charts at the moment as we are placed in the freezer.

    BEni1LgCcAEjKbQ.jpg
    Take it down your gona jinx it.:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Apart from the -12 uppers over much of the country in just 5 days time I don't know what the fuss is about

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=1


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    They really seem to have locked onto something here, after what we had this winter I will wait for the short range models like the NAE before I book days off work :pac:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    I wont get my hopes up until I put the hat on the snow man I build.

    Very early to be getting excited. If this doesn't come off, this forum will get a little hostile.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    I will once again stress that this is a watch the model evolution chat thread as opposed to the model/technical thread and there is no guarantee of anything to happen.

    It just gives people a chance to comment.

    There is no fuss being made here.

    Any trolling on this thread will be met with a heavy hand. Be warned


  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Redsunset wrote: »
    I will once again stress that this is a watch the model evolution chat thread as opposed to the model/technical thread and there is no guarantee of anything to happen.

    It just gives people a chance to comment.

    There is no fuss being made here.

    Any trolling on this thread will be met with a heavy hand. Be warned

    I like this idea, it's a "watch", it could happen, it might not happen, but the potential is out there.

    No one predicts Snowmaggedon, or equally, no one gets their knickers in a twist if nothing comes of it.

    Let the F5-ing begin! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    WOW, extremely rare sight.

    Rtavn1142.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    The charts are phenomenal. The GFS 6z rolling out ASTONISHING stuff now within 4 days. Ireland completely encased in -12!! uppers by Monday AM with a blob of -14 near northern ireland. This freight train is hurtling in.

    I was talking to a mate in Berlin delighted that winter was over last week with a thaw which he assumed was actual arrival of spring. They are going into the deep freeze again big style and for once it's looking good for us too. This possible cold snap has excellent support in the models now


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    If the GFS occurred it would be one of the coldest March days on Monday.

    There would be 10-20cm of snow lying in eastern areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Should be noted the GFS evolution of initial intense push and then slight warming up is not followed by ECM and its EPS, the ECM develops a more substantial Greenland block and keeps the flow of severe cold going much longer than the GFS

    Expect a half-way house between the two solutions in the coming days.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    If ever the phrase BEAST FROM THE EAST was warranted :-)


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,596 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    06z GFS seems to want to bring us cold 12 to 24 hours earlier than previous runs, up to now Sunday was the cooling down day with Monday looking cold...now all day Sunday is looking cold with threat of snow showers for the east from early Sunday morning. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Just better not fcuking happen.

    THAT IS ALL


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭weisses


    The last chart luckily shows west Munster on the border of this cold weather

    Need ......warmer ..... weather ....


  • Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭torres9kop


    How will wexford town fair out on tuesday. Have to travel down there from dublin. Any road closures??


  • Registered Users Posts: 84 ✭✭Wicklow Weather


    These look like some of the best charts I have seen under 144hrs since 2010. I will give it another 36 hours or until Thursday 18z run before I give it serious confidence. Still holding at 50/50 probably because of all the close calls over the past two winters!


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    torres9kop wrote: »
    How will wexford town fair out on tuesday. Have to travel down there from dublin. Any road closures??

    Seriously like :confused: thats 6 days away, have a look again at the weekend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    It could be an impressive cold snap alright.

    -14 uppers extending as far as the west coast, in March no less.

    x1UFT34.jpg

    Will that actually happen? We'll see. I have my doubts we'll see air that cold get that far west.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Nice to see you Maq! I totally agree about the extremity of that solution, heavy modification likely. Longer days and increased solar radiation might give us a sequence of short lived shows, which is probably better from a disruption point of view, but it still could be remarkable for March.

    If only we'd had that on the 7th of Jan.....


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,596 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Monday could be an 'ice day' for many. Not seen one of those since 2010.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Very unusual, tight cluster a week out on the 06GFS.

    Lets see what the UKMO has to say this evening before we get carried away.

    t850Dublin.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    UK met are on a significant and widespread ramp.......


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    UK met are on a significant and widespread ramp.......

    Nooooooooooooooo!!! What about Cheltenham, would somebody think of the Races :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭red_bairn


    Nooooooooooooooo!!! What about Cheltenham, would somebody think of the Races :eek:

    We've got it sorted...

    skating%20horse.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering



    Nooooooooooooooo!!! What about Cheltenham, would somebody think of the Races :eek:

    Horses are used to the cold by now. Just ask the ones in tesco's freezers

    Sorry couldn't help myself


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    Weathering wrote: »

    Horses are used to the cold by now. Just ask the ones in tesco's freezers

    Sorry couldn't help myself
    Cheltenham might escape the worst as these are norteasterlies .
    Cheltenham would have similar precip chances as galway or limerick, ie mainly dry.
    I expressed my thoughts on the weather for next week in the now closed ramping thread and I haven't changed my mind except it might actually a couple of degrees colder.
    Expect thundersnow in the east,temps barely above freezing at their warmest and a lot of lying snow.
    Because of the longer sunlight,the showers will make it west but the east us going to get the works,I'm convinced of that.
    That's anywhere from Louth to east cork with special mention to south Dublin,Kildare Wicklow wexford and Waterford.
    This is the M1 motorway for cold and snow in Ireland and if you look at any projected NH pattern for next week and trace the isobars,the flow comes to us from the pole via Siberia and Scandinavia.
    A colder source or route,you could not get in my opinion.
    It appears strong enough to hit the mid Atlantic, which means trouble in the sense that lows out there will be southerly tracking,they'll try to skoot south of this airflow.
    That means potentially this pattern when it locks in will be difficult to shift.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Weathering wrote: »
    Horses are used to the cold by now. Just ask the ones in tesco's freezers

    Sorry couldn't help myself

    Welcome back :D:D:D


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    whitebriar wrote: »
    Cheltenham might escape the worst as these are norteasterlies .
    Cheltenham would have similar precip chances as galway or limerick, ie mainly dry.
    I expressed my thoughts on the weather for next week in the now closed ramping thread and I haven't changed my mind except it might actually a couple of degrees colder.
    Expect thundersnow in the east,temps barely above freezing at their warmest and a lot of lying snow.
    Because of the longer sunlight,the showers will make it west but the east us going to get the works,I'm convinced of that.
    That's anywhere from Louth to east cork with special mention to south Dublin,Kildare Wicklow wexford and Waterford.
    This is the M1 motorway for cold and snow in Ireland and if you look at any projected NH pattern for next week and trace the isobars,the flow comes to us from the pole via Siberia and Scandinavia.
    A colder source or route,you could not get in my opinion.
    It appears strong enough to hit the mid Atlantic, which means trouble in the sense that lows out there will be southerly tracking,they'll try to skoot south of this airflow.
    That means potentially this pattern when it locks in will be difficult to shift.

    That is premium RAMPING. I fully concur, I think we are going to get a right proper face punch of cold come next week. Schools shut, cars abandonded on the N11 come Tuesday (;-) see the lad's post a bit farther back in the thread) and day time minima records broken for March.

    Exciting


This discussion has been closed.
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