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02-02-2013, 10:55   #1
Redsunset
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Risk Of Severe Wintry Conditions With Strong Winds. (High Risk-Ulster, Connaught)

From Monday night to perhaps Wednesday we are in for some raw weather as a strong Northwesterly flow introduces some polar air to Western shores. Because of the strong gradient it will quickly pass over the Warmer Atlantic and get a slight Maritime mix at lower levels but there should be less modification of the airmass.

This has all the ingredients of thunder activity and the spawning of comma features.

A Polar Low is not out of the equation as a capsule of -40 air at 500mb gets drags off Greenland. There is some 510 true polar dam air at the beginning that helps to feed this North westerly flow.


[IMG][/IMG]

An interesting mix of heavy rain sleet and snow showers especially over higher ground is very likely and combined with the strong winds would give whiteout conditions at times. So Thundersnow and blizzards are in there for parts of higher Ulster and Connaught. Munster could see something similar AND parts of the Midlands in the strong flow.

[IMG][/IMG]

[IMG][/IMG]
Very interesting setup for the North and Western half of Ireland. As mentioned a Strong gradient so Midlands could see some wintry falls too.

This is a watch for sure. There's also a strong risk of travel disruption to areas mentioned.

Last edited by Redsunset; 02-02-2013 at 11:00.
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02-02-2013, 11:02   #2
milli milli
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Oh wow! This sounds great. Whiteout please!

Keep safe everyone
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02-02-2013, 11:06   #3
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Anything for the east coast especially dublin next week in the terms of sleet and snow shower activity?
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02-02-2013, 11:10   #4
Redsunset
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Oh wow! This sounds great. Whiteout please!

Keep safe everyone
What's your location?

Higher ground for any whiteout potential.


Just to give the East a mention. We can't be sure how far the showers will travel inland and they will be dying as the do , so I wouldn't be getting the sleigh out just yet.
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02-02-2013, 11:18   #5
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What's your location?

Higher ground for any whiteout potential.


Just to give the East a mention. We can't be sure how far the showers will travel inland and they will be dying as the do , so I wouldn't be getting the sleigh out just yet.
I think you can safely dismiss the east and south east in the north westerly setup.
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02-02-2013, 11:20   #6
DOCARCH
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Just to give the East a mention. We can't be sure how far the showers will travel inland and they will be dying as the do , so I wouldn't be getting the sleigh out just yet.
Yeah, in this type of set up, you really need a trough or some other more organised band of showers to get them all the way to Dublin!

It can and does happen but it can make for painful watching as showers fizzle by the time they cross the Shannon.

Having said that, only snow here last winter was from a brief shower from the NW. Gave a dusting that lasted about an hour (before the sun fried it!).
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02-02-2013, 11:24   #7
Redsunset
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Yes that is my feeling too about the East and South East, very unlikely but get a polar low and you never know. Weather will do what it likes, when it likes.

Note the tiny bit of optimism I've left there so as not to shatter hopes.
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02-02-2013, 11:41   #8
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Yes that is my feeling too about the East and South East, very unlikely but get a polar low and you never know. Weather will do what it likes, when it likes.

Note the tiny bit of optimism I've left there so as not to shatter hopes.
They will survive.We usually watch on when the streamers roll in off the Irish sea.Its early in the set up and if it sets in an easterly is more likely.Hopefully something for everyone in the long run.
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02-02-2013, 12:11   #9
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Wait a minute am I reading this correctly? Cork has more chance of snow than Dublin with this "event"?! Score! :-D
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02-02-2013, 12:12   #10
oterra
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Yes that is my feeling too about the East and South East, very unlikely but get a polar low and you never know. Weather will do what it likes, when it likes.

Note the tiny bit of optimism I've left there so as not to shatter hopes.
Dec 2010's snow as far as I remember started from a North/North Westerly and didn't effect the east til 4 or 5 days into the cold spell. I remember us easties were egging on a Northeasterly set up which eventually kicked in.
I'd be happy enough with that outcome at a smaller scale(not to be greedy), just enough to greet the Spring with a bitterly Cold handshake in March!
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02-02-2013, 12:18   #11
Redsunset
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Wait a minute am I reading this correctly? Cork has more chance of snow than Dublin with this "event"?! Score! :-D
Nope the Cork snow shield is working fine.


Ah I wouldn't be getting too excited leahyl. You have a better chance Yes in a Northwesterly set up before the tide turns again.
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02-02-2013, 12:24   #12
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Yep a real nice slice of polar air in this WNW

Some parts of the west could get smashed.

Usually these showers die out before they reach the east coast however they probably have more chance of being snow if they do reach it.
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02-02-2013, 12:38   #13
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What's your location?

Higher ground for
County sligo. Fingers crossed
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02-02-2013, 12:49   #14
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Nice for Tuesday morning

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02-02-2013, 12:50   #15
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Still looking very good for the NW, looking like there will be some very hefty showers in that NW flow. Latest GFS 500 hPa temps for Tuesday 06 shows sub -40 temps. Showers then might turn sleetier/more to rain as warmer uppers come into play later on on Tuesday. I'm sure some members of this forum will get lying snow Monday night.
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