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Risk Of Severe Wintry Conditions With Strong Winds. (High Risk-Ulster, Connaught)

  • 02-02-2013 10:55am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    From Monday night to perhaps Wednesday we are in for some raw weather as a strong Northwesterly flow introduces some polar air to Western shores. Because of the strong gradient it will quickly pass over the Warmer Atlantic and get a slight Maritime mix at lower levels but there should be less modification of the airmass.

    This has all the ingredients of thunder activity and the spawning of comma features.

    A Polar Low is not out of the equation as a capsule of -40 air at 500mb gets drags off Greenland. There is some 510 true polar dam air at the beginning that helps to feed this North westerly flow.
    13020500_0206.gif

    [IMG][/img]fax60s_esz5.gif

    An interesting mix of heavy rain sleet and snow showers especially over higher ground is very likely and combined with the strong winds would give whiteout conditions at times. So Thundersnow and blizzards are in there for parts of higher Ulster and Connaught. Munster could see something similar AND parts of the Midlands in the strong flow.

    [IMG][/img]fax72s_jii1.gif

    [IMG][/img]fax84s_mor5.gif
    Very interesting setup for the North and Western half of Ireland. As mentioned a Strong gradient so Midlands could see some wintry falls too.

    This is a watch for sure. There's also a strong risk of travel disruption to areas mentioned.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭milli milli


    Oh wow! This sounds great. Whiteout please!

    Keep safe everyone


  • Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭chris2007


    Anything for the east coast especially dublin next week in the terms of sleet and snow shower activity?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Oh wow! This sounds great. Whiteout please!

    Keep safe everyone

    What's your location?

    Higher ground for any whiteout potential.


    Just to give the East a mention. We can't be sure how far the showers will travel inland and they will be dying as the do , so I wouldn't be getting the sleigh out just yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭200motels


    Redsunset wrote: »
    What's your location?

    Higher ground for any whiteout potential.


    Just to give the East a mention. We can't be sure how far the showers will travel inland and they will be dying as the do , so I wouldn't be getting the sleigh out just yet.
    I think you can safely dismiss the east and south east in the north westerly setup.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Redsunset wrote: »
    Just to give the East a mention. We can't be sure how far the showers will travel inland and they will be dying as the do , so I wouldn't be getting the sleigh out just yet.

    Yeah, in this type of set up, you really need a trough or some other more organised band of showers to get them all the way to Dublin!

    It can and does happen but it can make for painful watching as showers fizzle by the time they cross the Shannon.

    Having said that, only snow here last winter was from a brief shower from the NW. Gave a dusting that lasted about an hour (before the sun fried it!).


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes that is my feeling too about the East and South East, very unlikely but get a polar low and you never know. Weather will do what it likes, when it likes.

    Note the tiny bit of optimism I've left there so as not to shatter hopes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 342 ✭✭yorlum11


    Redsunset wrote: »
    Yes that is my feeling too about the East and South East, very unlikely but get a polar low and you never know. Weather will do what it likes, when it likes.

    Note the tiny bit of optimism I've left there so as not to shatter hopes.
    They will survive.We usually watch on when the streamers roll in off the Irish sea.Its early in the set up and if it sets in an easterly is more likely.Hopefully something for everyone in the long run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Wait a minute am I reading this correctly? Cork has more chance of snow than Dublin with this "event"?! Score! :-D


  • Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭oterra


    Redsunset wrote: »
    Yes that is my feeling too about the East and South East, very unlikely but get a polar low and you never know. Weather will do what it likes, when it likes.

    Note the tiny bit of optimism I've left there so as not to shatter hopes.

    Dec 2010's snow as far as I remember started from a North/North Westerly and didn't effect the east til 4 or 5 days into the cold spell. I remember us easties were egging on a Northeasterly set up which eventually kicked in.
    I'd be happy enough with that outcome at a smaller scale(not to be greedy), just enough to greet the Spring with a bitterly Cold handshake in March!:eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    leahyl wrote: »
    Wait a minute am I reading this correctly? Cork has more chance of snow than Dublin with this "event"?! Score! :-D

    Nope the Cork snow shield is working fine.


    Ah I wouldn't be getting too excited leahyl. You have a better chance Yes in a Northwesterly set up before the tide turns again. :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yep a real nice slice of polar air in this WNW

    Some parts of the west could get smashed.

    Usually these showers die out before they reach the east coast however they probably have more chance of being snow if they do reach it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭milli milli


    Redsunset wrote: »

    What's your location?

    Higher ground for

    County sligo. Fingers crossed


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Nice for Tuesday morning

    prectypeuktopo.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Still looking very good for the NW, looking like there will be some very hefty showers in that NW flow. Latest GFS 500 hPa temps for Tuesday 06 shows sub -40 temps. Showers then might turn sleetier/more to rain as warmer uppers come into play later on on Tuesday. I'm sure some members of this forum will get lying snow Monday night.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    patneve2 wrote: »
    Still looking very good for the NW, looking like there will be some very hefty showers in that NW flow. Latest GFS 500 hPa temps for Tuesday 06 shows sub -40 temps. Showers then might turn sleetier/more to rain as warmer uppers come into play later on on Tuesday. I'm sure some members of this forum will get lying snow Monday night.

    Tuesday 500 hPa


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Yep a real nice slice of polar air in this WNW

    Some parts of the west could get smashed.

    Usually these showers die out before they reach the east coast however they probably have more chance of being snow if they do reach it.

    The famous snowstorm of April 1st 1917 was obviously a polar low yet I've never heard it described as a polar low event. I presume little or nothing was known about polar lows in those days when meteorology was very primitive and of course polar lows only show up on satellites as they are impossible to forecast. The heaviest snow reported in this 1917 storm was in Cos Clare and Mayo. I don't think next week will be anywhere near 1917, look at the big area of high pressure to the NW.

    Rrea00119170401.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    DOCARCH wrote: »

    Yeah, in this type of set up, you really need a trough or some other more organised band of showers to get them all the way to Dublin!

    It can and does happen but it can make for painful watching as showers fizzle by the time they cross the Shannon.

    Having said that, only snow here last winter was from a brief shower from the NW. Gave a dusting that lasted about an hour (before the sun fried it!).
    The strength of the wind is key too,the strongest,then the more likely Dublin see's showers and those should be snow.
    Rule of thumb is simple really,very very simple,would you see showers in the summer or any other time in this type of flow?
    Yes,is the likely answer albeit with some land convection too.

    There's whopping possibilities over a 48hr period for whopping clumps of precip to develop in that fast flow.
    The atlantic is a much bigger shower breeding ground (usually rain) than the Irish sea obviously.
    Enter Stormy fast super cold air in the flow like this set up and all bets are off.
    Hilly parts of Sligo,Mayo and Donegal doing best.

    Total nowcast/radar/satelite watch elsewhere.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    There is some potential for a few flurries or the odd moderate shower midnight Monday and on into Tuesday morning for the East. Another matter for the North and West - that's where all the fun will be. Will be absolutely bitter in that Gale force NW wind with heavy hail, sleet and snow showers. Showers will probably turn to rain/sleet below 300 metres come Tuesday afternoon (warmer uppers)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Any chance of this becoming a widespread lower ground event?
    Snow for higher ground, getting sick of hearing that phrase!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Pangea wrote: »
    Any chance of this becoming a widespread lower ground event?
    Snow for higher ground, getting sick of hearing that phrase!

    Of course. High ground will always be favourite for most accumulation and disruption.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    I think that the window for snow on lower ground is midnight monday onto about 12:00 Tuesday. Obviously better chances the further inland you are. Would be surprised if places like Letterkenny, Derry or inland Mayo didn't see even 2-3cm of lying snow. Will be a very interesting event in those areas regardless of accumulating snow or not anyways. Inland and higher areas of Galway, Clare, Limerick etc might see something also especially if the showers are heavy


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Those showers could be very heavy in thundery downpours but will be fast moving in a strong flow so brief blizzards aplenty look to be the order. However get streamers going strong and you could be buried under them while your 10 mile down the road friend sees sod all. Like Whitebriar says this is a radar/satellite watch.

    Come on you Polar Lows.......


  • Registered Users Posts: 32 DanRu


    I know polar lows are very difficult to predict but what amount of notice would we have time wise ?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DanRu wrote: »
    I know polar lows are very difficult to predict but what amount of notice would we have time wise ?

    Maybe 12 hours or so, usually no more than 24 hours? They tend to develop quite quickly.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Nice for Tuesday morning

    prectypeuktopo.png
    Guess where I am? Snow Shield on full power....


  • Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭cyclops999


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Nice for Tuesday morning

    prectypeuktopo.png
    Typical detours around Athlone as usual:mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭Darwin


    I wouldn't pay any attention to those precipitation forecasts, they are at best a vague indication of where snow might fall.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    They are useless charts. Don't bother your heads with them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,237 ✭✭✭Deank


    In percentage terms what is the likelihood of Kildare seeing some snow next week, particularly North Kildare?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    Deank wrote: »
    In percentage terms what is the likelihood of Kildare seeing some snow next week, particularly North Kildare?
    High.


This discussion has been closed.
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