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22-01-2013, 18:17   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

GFS may be on to something. Already there is consensus from the models for some extremely deep low pressure systems over the North Atlantic from this weekend towards next week. As a slice of PV moves south towards Iceland.

A extreme storm of sub 930mb is progged by most models south of Iceland Saturday.

If the model is correct the actual central pressure of the storm could be extremely impressive, potentially as low as 920mb.



However prior to this the GFS is keen to develop an intense storm ahead of the trough.

The storm develops on the right edge of an intense Jetstreak Friday and moves to the north of Ireland.

There is strong GEFS ensemble agreement for an intense storm in this region and at just T72hrs, it is certainly something to watch in the coming hours and days. It has the potential to be particularly severe if all ingredients came right.




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22-01-2013, 18:21   #2
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Need to see an example of a bomb? Just look at what the ECM does with this storm in the Atlantic.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...12/ECM1-72.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...12/ECM1-96.GIF


Yes that's right, a 50!! 50hPa pressure fall in 24hours!! Absolutely incredible.

Meanwhile of concern to us is developed by the ECM at 72hrs but is absorbed by the T96hr frame as it races Northeastwards.
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22-01-2013, 18:22   #3
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Posted this in the model thread earlier. Since there is a thread now I'll place it here.

12Z GFS winds up that low off the northwest on Friday to to 959mb.



An area of very tightly packed isobars.



Sustained hurricane force winds at sea.



Worth keeping an eye on, if that track shifted south the west/northwest would be in for some severe winds.

Then the next day the GFS produces another Atlantic low (not near Ireland) with pressure down to 925mb, which in itself if interesting because only a handful of north Atlantic storms on record have been below 930mb.

An extreme example from the 12Z GFS ensembles. Sub-910mb.


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22-01-2013, 18:51   #4
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12Z ECM also develops the big Atlantic low, down to 926mb at 96 hours, almost exactly the same as the GFS.



Massive windfield spanning several hundred miles.



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22-01-2013, 21:13   #5
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From some of the charts i looked at yesterday, this has a relatively warm center surrounded by -4 to -8 uppers on all sides, the dept that some of those cold uppers are reaching south into the Atlantic is impressive.

The usual modification from the Atlantic being sapped somewhat by the Low temps in Eastern Canada constantly flowing out for the past 8-10 days?

How is this system so well organised, when most this winter have been multiple weak unorganised systems travelling from Canada/South GreenLand to W Ireland.

Sorry about the assumptions and questions. Just curios as to why now we should get this mega storm and have it bomb so fast (in the models, it has jet to happen )
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22-01-2013, 21:14   #6
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just to give people an idea of what could happen from a swell point of view, here's a short clip from sligo yesterday when there was no low pressure as significant as what the gfs forecast's

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22-01-2013, 21:42   #7
 
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Lads how much Rain do ye think will accompany this?
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22-01-2013, 21:45   #8
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MT said lately that the system must reload for it to become even colder again, could this storm be the reload that we are looking for, surely this will take alot of energy and warmth from the atlantic? Could be an interesting week ahead watching this one develop and then seeing how the cold develops..
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22-01-2013, 21:51   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aboyro View Post
just to give people an idea of what could happen from a swell point of view, here's a short clip from sligo yesterday when there was no low pressure as significant as what the gfs forecast's

This is for Sunday. You could fit all of Ireland inside the area of sea with heights maxed out on this scale, and still have room to spare.

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22-01-2013, 21:52   #10
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18z GFS reduced the risk from the initial system for Ireland.
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22-01-2013, 21:57   #11
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The Atlantic Storm goes from 970mb to 935mb in 12 hours. Incredible.

I expect some shipping forecasts to use 'An extremely dangerous storm' type language when discussing this beast.

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22-01-2013, 21:57   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Daddy Cool View Post
Lads how much Rain do ye think will accompany this?
I'd imagine that rain would be the least of our worries if this arrived
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22-01-2013, 22:01   #13
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Look at that Monster near 925mb.

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22-01-2013, 22:05   #14
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80 knot sustained winds. Almost the same windspeeds as a Cat 2 hurricane. 928mb, the type of pressure you'd see in a high end Cat 4 hurricane. Not too shabby for a non tropical Atlantic low eh?



18Z GFS has it tracking a bit closer to us too.
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22-01-2013, 22:06   #15
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After peaking intensity at near 925mb, it is still a 935mb monster storm 24 hours later.

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