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Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

  • 22-01-2013 6:17pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    GFS may be on to something. Already there is consensus from the models for some extremely deep low pressure systems over the North Atlantic from this weekend towards next week. As a slice of PV moves south towards Iceland.

    A extreme storm of sub 930mb is progged by most models south of Iceland Saturday.

    If the model is correct the actual central pressure of the storm could be extremely impressive, potentially as low as 920mb.

    gfs-0-96.png?12?12

    However prior to this the GFS is keen to develop an intense storm ahead of the trough.

    The storm develops on the right edge of an intense Jetstreak Friday and moves to the north of Ireland.

    There is strong GEFS ensemble agreement for an intense storm in this region and at just T72hrs, it is certainly something to watch in the coming hours and days. It has the potential to be particularly severe if all ingredients came right.

    gfs-0-72.png?12?12

    gfs-5-66.png?12


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Need to see an example of a bomb? Just look at what the ECM does with this storm in the Atlantic.


    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013012212/ECM1-72.GIF

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013012212/ECM1-96.GIF


    Yes that's right, a 50!! 50hPa pressure fall in 24hours!! Absolutely incredible.

    Meanwhile of concern to us is developed by the ECM at 72hrs but is absorbed by the T96hr frame as it races Northeastwards.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Posted this in the model thread earlier. Since there is a thread now I'll place it here.

    12Z GFS winds up that low off the northwest on Friday to to 959mb.

    DGMImCY.gif

    An area of very tightly packed isobars.

    13012518_2212.gif

    Sustained hurricane force winds at sea.

    13012518_2212.gif

    Worth keeping an eye on, if that track shifted south the west/northwest would be in for some severe winds.

    Then the next day the GFS produces another Atlantic low (not near Ireland) with pressure down to 925mb, which in itself if interesting because only a handful of north Atlantic storms on record have been below 930mb.

    An extreme example from the 12Z GFS ensembles. Sub-910mb.

    NY4c9N9.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM also develops the big Atlantic low, down to 926mb at 96 hours, almost exactly the same as the GFS.

    tHLLRA0.gif

    Massive windfield spanning several hundred miles.

    ZLGhGCl.jpg

    zlodhAB.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    From some of the charts i looked at yesterday, this has a relatively warm center surrounded by -4 to -8 uppers on all sides, the dept that some of those cold uppers are reaching south into the Atlantic is impressive.

    The usual modification from the Atlantic being sapped somewhat by the Low temps in Eastern Canada constantly flowing out for the past 8-10 days?

    How is this system so well organised, when most this winter have been multiple weak unorganised systems travelling from Canada/South GreenLand to W Ireland.

    Sorry about the assumptions and questions. Just curios as to why now we should get this mega storm and have it bomb so fast (in the models, it has jet to happen :) )


  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    just to give people an idea of what could happen from a swell point of view, here's a short clip from sligo yesterday when there was no low pressure as significant as what the gfs forecast's



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    Lads how much Rain do ye think will accompany this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭vizualpics


    MT said lately that the system must reload for it to become even colder again, could this storm be the reload that we are looking for, surely this will take alot of energy and warmth from the atlantic? Could be an interesting week ahead watching this one develop and then seeing how the cold develops..


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    aboyro wrote: »
    just to give people an idea of what could happen from a swell point of view, here's a short clip from sligo yesterday when there was no low pressure as significant as what the gfs forecast's


    This is for Sunday. You could fit all of Ireland inside the area of sea with heights maxed out on this scale, and still have room to spare.

    WNewRKo.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    18z GFS reduced the risk from the initial system for Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The Atlantic Storm goes from 970mb to 935mb in 12 hours. Incredible.

    I expect some shipping forecasts to use 'An extremely dangerous storm' type language when discussing this beast.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,645 ✭✭✭Daniel2590


    Lads how much Rain do ye think will accompany this?

    I'd imagine that rain would be the least of our worries if this arrived :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Look at that Monster near 925mb.

    Rtavn901.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    80 knot sustained winds. Almost the same windspeeds as a Cat 2 hurricane. 928mb, the type of pressure you'd see in a high end Cat 4 hurricane. Not too shabby for a non tropical Atlantic low eh?

    6ZbSyMg.gif

    18Z GFS has it tracking a bit closer to us too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    After peaking intensity at near 925mb, it is still a 935mb monster storm 24 hours later.

    Rtavn1081.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    80 knot sustained winds. Almost the same windspeeds as a Cat 2 hurricane. 928mb, the type of pressure you'd see in a high end Cat 4 hurricane. Not too shabby for a non tropical Atlantic low eh?

    So just needs to track 500 miles further east yeah?

    I think maybe we'll let the fish keep this one.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    So just needs to track 500 miles further east yeah?

    I think maybe we'll let the fish keep this one.

    Well it's already about a 100 miles further east than the 12Z...

    0421_nid4d.gif

    Poor NOGAPS cannot compute below 950mb on Meteociel. Resorts to Black Hole Mode.

    uymsSww.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Well it's already about a 100 miles further east than the 12Z...

    0421_nid4d.gif

    Poor NOGAPS cannot compute below 950mb on Meteociel. Resorts to Black Hole Mode.

    uymsSww.png

    Well NOGAPS has it even further east for whatever it is worth!

    Now note that NOGAPS doesn't go lower than 950mb on its charts, but you can make out it is quite alot deeper.

    nogaps-0-96.png

    SNAP


  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    anyone considering the "What if's"?????? it more than likely a potential cold killer across europe, but "what if" it undercut us???????

    Oh Lord!!!!!!!!:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Well NOGAPS has it even further east for whatever it is worth!

    Now note that NOGAPS doesn't go lower than 950mb on its charts, but you can make out it is quite alot deeper.

    Found it. NOGAPS deepens it to 928mb here. But if that was a hi-res chart I'm sure it would be even deeper.

    K9lbWSH.gif

    An estimated chart for the Night Of The Big Wind that I posted in the FI thread yesterday, just for fun. :P

    chart+3.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Smidge


    Maq, do you reckon any of that will make landfall over Ireland?
    If so, what impact could it have for us?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    Well with the cold comeing to an end...least we have these deep lows to keep us all interested...ya cant beat the weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Smidge wrote: »
    Maq, do you reckon any of that will make landfall over Ireland?
    If so, what impact could it have for us?

    All depends on the track and intensity, it's just too early to know that yet. The chances are we'll just end up with a lot of rain and some wind. Interesting one to watch regardless of the track it ends up taking though. I've never seen an extratropical cyclone on the models with pressure as low as some of the model runs are showing, only on historical charts. It could be the most intense Atlantic low in 20 years regardless of any impact here or anywhere else.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Smidge


    All depends on the track and intensity, it's just too early to know that yet. The chances are we'll just end up with a lot of rain and some wind. Interesting one to watch regardless of the track it ends up taking though. I've never seen an extratropical cyclone on the models with pressure as low as some of the model runs are showing, only on historical charts. It could be the most intense Atlantic low in 20 years regardless of any impact here or anywhere else.

    The charts are pretty amazing to look at, even to amateur eyes.
    Does the black hole mean they can't chart it any further?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Not too clued up on mid-Atlantic time zones and darkness time but if I'm reading it right it looks like its going to bomb overnight which is a shame, would be a great one to track on satellite

    It'll definitely affect us one way or another but the extreme hurricane force winds are going to be well out in the Atlantic, it does push a fairly active looking front over us though which combined with another one on Friday could cause some flooding issues

    Its the sort of setup where a storm can suddenly show up on the models 3 or 4 days out (as happened with the 12Z GFS) so it'll hopefully be an interesting few days ahead and not just the standard wind and rain on tonight's runs


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Smidge wrote: »
    The charts are pretty amazing to look at, even to amateur eyes.
    Does the black hole mean they can't chart it any further?

    Yeah it just means that on that website they didn't set it up to show any output below 950mb for that model.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    A good % of GFS 18z Ensembles show the first depression hitting Ireland late Friday/Saturday do be a threat.

    The morning will be interesting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Some mind blowing Ensembles

    Yes sub 915mb

    gens-15-1-90.png?18


    How about a 925mb low heading east towards Ireland?

    gens-13-1-102.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Outside chance of a record breaker with this one folks.

    The Braer Storm in 1993 at 914mb being the marker for the lowest pressure of a extra-tropical Atlantic system


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,368 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    This is firmly FI though right? Or is the fact that the models are showing these at all something of significance?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Steopo


    According to Met E the lowest ever recorded pressure was 931.2 in 1838 & the lowest northern hemisphere pressure was apparently 912mb so if those charts delivered it would be one serious storm. Whatever about wishing for a snow whiteout not sure I'd be willing this one to change track too much!


This discussion has been closed.
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