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Potential for another wave of extreme winds Sunday Night/Monday

  • 29-12-2012 11:50am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭


    Higher res models are now showing the potential for severe weather as a wave develops and a small but tightly wound circulation crosses the country late Sunday. The exact scale and the development of the disturbance is at this point somewhat uncertain.

    The NAE picks up the feature as potential extreme wind event for some.

    12123103_2906.gif


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Bejubby


    2 in a row!

    I think we should concentrate more on wind and rain events rather than snow. They're more common and always guaaranteed.
    But I'm still a snow lover.
    :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭weisses


    This event will mainly affect the NW am i right ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Sunday nights feature needs close watching.
    Could go either way, but were it to upgrade from where it's at it could well raise eyebrows


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    An interesting feature on the NAE alright.

    Storm force winds along some west/southwest coasts here.

    12123103_2906.gif


    And then later sustained winds close to gale force in some inland areas as it crosses the country.

    12123106_2906.gif

    Worth keeping an eye on for sure. Since its a small system you could easily see some changes in track and intensity in this short time which could have a big impact on which areas might see strong winds & how strong they would be, since it's a narrow windfield.

    We'll see how much changes on the 12Z.

    Met Eireann highlight the uncertainty:
    Very wet and windy overnight Sunday night with strong and gusty southerly winds and with heavy rain in many places. Lowest temperatures 6 to 9 C. Some severe gusts are possible in places, but this is not certain as of yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Turned wild here in mayo the last 30 minutes. Wind howling and sky sports juddering. Lots of wet snow in with the rain too.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 908 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Very wild in the heavy showers of rain / hail here in the South West, looks like a slight dusting at 800m+


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,442 ✭✭✭✭joujoujou
    Unregistered Users


    Wind speed goes up. :)

    Current data for co.Mayo, co.Roscommon border PWS
    29 Dec 2012 15:05:12

    Temperature (°C):
    Current 2,2
    Trend (per hour) -1,1
    Average today 5,5
    Wind chill -3,9
    Heat Index 2,2
    Dew Point 2,1
    Rel Humidity 99%

    Wind (km/h):
    Current Gust 42,8 W
    Average Speed 32,9 SW

    Rainfall (mm):
    Current rate 0,0
    Last hour 1,2
    Total today 1,2
    Total yesterday 6,9
    Total this month 42,6
    Total this year 685,2

    Pressure (hPa):
    Current 968,9
    Trend (per hour) 0,0

    234247.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z NAE for Monday morning.

    A bit weaker and a bit further south.

    12123106_2912.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    There will be strong winds this evening especially in the northwest regardless of the development of the system late Sunday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    What about this from IWO for tomorrow morning, nothing on met.ie about it.
    WEATHER UPDATE: We are expecting further strong winds overnight (peaking 0400-0800h Sunday) mainly across northern counties. The peak gust potential is similar to Friday's max recorded gusts of 120-130 km/hr. After somewhat of a midday easing to 50-70 km/hr, another interval of about 80-110 km/hr winds are likely during Sunday evening. The winds will be strongest in southern and eastern counties.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    There will be strong winds this evening especially in the northwest regardless of the development of the system late Sunday.
    On my phone think i accidently almost sent a report ha. Winds 130 for tonight like mt said or less?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Mr Cumulonimbus


    12Z GFS has it on a more northerly track. 3am Mon morning.

    234251.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    GFS on its own though as NAE and UKMO keep it further South


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Pangea wrote: »
    What about this from IWO for tomorrow morning, nothing on met.ie about it.
    WEATHER UPDATE: We are expecting further strong winds overnight (peaking 0400-0800h Sunday) mainly across northern counties. The peak gust potential is similar to Friday's max recorded gusts of 120-130 km/hr.

    I have to disagree with this. I don't think it will be that severe at all this evening/tomorrow. The severe winds will be too far to the northwest, out at sea. Strong winds, but the models don't show potential for 130 km/h gusts. Maybe up to 100 km/h on exposed coasts. Inland, just looks windy.

    12123006_2912.gif

    This is different the system being shown for Sunday night / Monday morning, in case anyone is confused.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 29,476 ✭✭✭✭Our man in Havana


    Is there much rain in this system?


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    met.ie dont have any weather warning up on there site ( so far). is this because there is less chance of strong winds as apposed to last night..they had warnings for that wind event i think at least 24hrs before or is it the type of wave that makes it harder to predict and they just arent to sure yet.... a bit like the rest of us:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    met.ie dont have any weather warning up on there site ( so far). is this because there is less chance of strong winds as apposed to last night..they had warnings for that wind event i think at least 24hrs before or is it the type of wave that makes it harder to predict and they just arent to sure yet.... a bit like the rest of us:rolleyes:

    Just due to the uncertainty I'd say. They will have a warning for Sunday night / Monday morning unless it gets downgraded on the models.
    Is there much rain in this system?

    12Z NAE had up to about 30mm in places over the next 48 hours.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Given the current set up maquiladora, what wind speeds could we expect?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Weathering wrote: »
    Given the current set up maquiladora, what wind speeds could we expect?

    Well its changing a bit on every run, so still a fair bit of uncertainty, but if it were to pan out as below then it could bring storm force winds to a fairly limited area of coastline in the west. An even smaller area than was shown on the same model this morning.

    Could easily be downgraded to something insignificant by tomorrow though. It's a small little feature. We'll see.

    12123106_2918.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Gale warning on met eireann

    Warnings


    Gale Warning

    West to southwest gales will continue overnight and on Sunday morning on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea with strong gales at times on western and northern coasts from Valentia to Erris Head to Fair Head.
    Issued at 23:00 on 29-Dec-2012

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,764 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Western areas are looking at 30-35kts and some parts of the East 30kts from around 5pm till midnightish. I would expect gusts in the west to around 55kts and around 45kts for the east. It might change though :)

    wi21_zps5f85c297.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Bsal wrote: »
    Western areas are looking at 30-35kts and some parts of the East 30kts from around 5pm till midnightish. I would expect gusts in the west to around 55kts and around 45kts for the east. It might change though :)

    Hi, What website did you get that from
    Please link


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Bsal wrote: »
    Western areas are looking at 30-35kts and some parts of the East 30kts from around 5pm till midnightish. I would expect gusts in the west to around 55kts and around 45kts for the east. It might change though :)

    What does WRF show for around 6am Monday morning? Thats when the NAE is showing that small little low with the area of tightly spaced isobars with a narrow windfield.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,764 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Unfortunetly I can only get charts for upto 24hrs ahead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Has that low pressure/feature disappeared now? Or do I need to be looking at hi res charts?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Update from the met office Further spells of heavy rain are expected to move eastwards across the UK during Sunday night and Monday, with the most persistent heavy rain likely to affect high ground in western areas from north Wales northwards. The rain will clear eastwards from these areas early on Monday afternoon.

    The rain will be accompanied by southwesterly gales in places, with a risk of severe gales for a time across Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England during Monday.

    The public should be aware of possible disruption, particularly to travel, and also of the potential for localised flooding

    Gusts of 50-60mph are expected and a low risk of 65-70mph for a short period on monday


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Track has shifted further north and its a little weaker again on the NAE.

    Still a fair bit of uncertainty but its looking less severe than yesterday anyway. No warning from Met Eireann this morning suggests it may not look too bad on their hi-res model.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Track has shifted further north and its a little weaker again on the NAE.

    Still a fair bit of uncertainty but its looking less severe than yesterday anyway. No warning from Met Eireann this morning suggests it may not look too bad on their hi-res model.

    Agreed, but they do mention "There will be further spells of heavy and persistent rain tonight. It will stay windy with strong to near gale force southwesterly winds, while along coastal parts there will be gale force winds and severe gusts."

    Also met office mentioning the possibility of 70mph winds for N.Ireland, they've never had winds that high forecast for any time this winter so far

    Typical set up, hard to know what's going to happen until it comes


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    No mention of anything of significance for tonight/early tomorrow on RTE Farming forecast there.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    i havent seen any updated models but just going by the farming forecast and met.ie havin no weather warning for tonight/tomorrow morning it seems that this might be fading with every passing hour.......have any of models anything to suggest otherwise?


This discussion has been closed.
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