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Potential for extreme wind event Friday/Saturday

  • 26-12-2012 6:42pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    As a rapidly deepening Low races from our southwest, it is expected to come close to Ireland and potentially make a direct hit in some Western areas, the track will vary on the original waves track and timings of intensification etc.

    However the low is in very developmental environment and regardless of its track is anticipated to deepen as a sub 950mb storm to our north-west by this weekend.

    One to watch...


«1345678

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Evelyn mentioned stormy conditions on the TV forecast. Structural damage was mentioned.

    Some strong winds coming in at the end of the 12Z NAE. 850 hpa winds up to 90kt off the southwest coast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Scotland really gets the full force of that storm on the 18Z GFS.

    850 hpa winds almost touching 200 km/h up around there at 57 hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A 0008 update from Met Eireann Headline : Very unsettled weather for the rest of December and in the first week of the New Year. Wet and windy at times, but relatively mild.

    Friday night : Extremely windy at first, with very strong southerly winds and with a risk of stormy conditions and damaging winds in coastal areas of the west and north. Rain will clear eastwards early in the night to scattered showers and winds will veer southwesterly and east a little.

    Saturday 29th December : Cold and windy, with bright spells and showers, the showers most frequent in Munster, Connacht and west Ulster, with a risk of hail and thunder. Max. 6 to 9 Celsius, with strong and gusty SW'ly winds. Further scattered showers overnight and very cold, but too windy for any significant frost. Min.. 1 to 4 Celsius.

    Sunday 30th December : A mainly dry morning, with just a few scattered showers and breezy, with fresh and gusty W to SW winds. More persistent rain will spread from the southwest in the afternoon and evening, with strong southerly winds.

    Monday, New Year's Eve : Brightening up, with sunny spells developing. Scattered showers also, most of them in the west and north. Max. 6 to 9 C., in a fresh to strong westerly wind. Cold overnight, with some frost.

    New Year's Day : Cold, bright and mostly dry, but more wet and windy weather will spread from the Atlantic later in the day and overnight.

    Further Outlook : Changeable and very unsettled weather continuing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Looks like it could be rough tomorrow now. looks like the future is very unsettled now for the immediate period.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z NAE has winds reaching up to hurricane force out at sea. Sustained 75mph winds.

    EZ7gE.gif

    It looks like we will miss the worst of it. Some strong winds along west and northwest coasts, but nothing too unusual for those places at this time of year. Very strong out at sea though.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    I see met eireann have a status red for wind tomorrow eve with gusts up to 140kph in connacht..strong if that happens.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    hello people met.ie have a red warning out for 140kph winds. were are the discussions cant believe its so quiet


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Weathering wrote: »
    hello people met.ie have a red warning out for 140kph winds. were are the discussions cant believe its so quiet

    Agree never saw it so quite with what could be the strongest storm for a very long time, 140 kph is a hurricane force


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Agree never saw it so quite with what could be the strongest storm for a very long time, 140 kph is a hurricane force
    Because it's not happening in dublin ;):)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Is it just wind or heavy rain also? Met seems to be mentioning just wind. I think heavy rain today but tomorrow night seems to be just a wind event


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Weathering wrote: »
    hello people met.ie have a red warning out for 140kph winds. were are the discussions cant believe its so quiet
    Two probable reasons, one people are busy over Christmas holidays and the fact there is no mention of snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Met Eireann has issued a Severe Weather Warning for Connacht, which seems to be a step higher than the Weather Advisory or Weather Alert that they usually issue for these type of things.
    Issued at 27 December 2012 - 12:20

    Severe Weather Warning

    Severe weather warning for Connacht

    Strong south to southwest winds during Friday will reach mean speeds of 70 to 90 kph at their peak during Friday evening with gusts of 120 to 140 kph likely.

    Weather warning countrywide

    Strong south to southwest winds during Friday will reach mean speeds of 50 to 70 kph at their peak during Friday evening with gusts of 110 to 120 kph likely. Winds strongest at the coast.

    It has triggered a rare Red awareness level on Meteoalarm for Connacht tomorrow. Rest of the country in Orange.

    IE-121228.gif

    Storm force winds certainly likely on some exposed coasts there, but inland and away from those areas (the majority of the people on here) it will be a lot less windy.

    Sea Area:
    Outlook for a further 24 hours until 1200 Saturday 29 December 2012: Southerly gales or strong gales, with storm force winds and violent storm force gusts on Friday in the southwest, west and north, decreasing gale force southwesterly on Friday night. Occasional rain, drizzle and fog, clearing to showers on Friday night.

    Wouldn't be shocked to see hurricane force being mentioned for Rockall/Hebrides on the shipping foreast tomorrow if the 06Z NAE is right.

    12Z models out soon.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    Met Eireann has issued a Severe Weather Warning for Connacht, which seems to be a step higher than the Weather Advisory or Weather Alert that they usually issue for these type of things.



    It has triggered a rare Red awareness level on Meteoalarm for Connacht tomorrow. Rest of the country in Orange.

    IE-121228.gif

    Storm force winds certainly likely on some exposed coasts there, but inland and away from those areas (the majority of the people on here) it will be a lot less windy.

    Sea Area:



    Wouldn't be shocked to see hurricane force being mentioned for Rockall/Hebrides on the shipping foreast tomorrow if the 06Z NAE is right.

    12Z models out soon.

    Looks fairly serious. Must give the family a heads up on the west coast


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    Will be following this one with interest, some interesting weather would be nice :)

    Very little maritime traffic off the West coast of Ireland at the moment. AIS is showing one vessel entering the Shannon estuary and one vessel approx 150nm West of the Shannon estuary and Foynes Port indicating the arrival of a vessel on the evening of the 29th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Looks fairly serious. Must give the family a heads up on the west coast

    I'd say just tell them to keep an eye on the TV forecast this evening and be aware of it but no need for panic. The west coast would have seen a number of events over the past few years with similar or stronger wind speeds to what is being forecast with this, so it's not really anything too unusual for this area. Also, the models could still downgrade this anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z NAE, slightly weaker at sea, slightly stronger on the west coast.

    There would be sustained winds of almost 100 km/h at Belmullet here for a time if this model is right. Certainly would be violent storm force gusts, maybe even close to hurricane force gusts. Thats if this model is right, and only in this very limited, exposed area. Nothing as severe as that elsewhere.

    12122818_2712.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    wonder will M.T give us an update on this
    What could inland donegal expect to see?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Weathering wrote: »
    wonder will M.T give us an update on this
    What could inland donegal expect to see?

    Would depend upon how far inland, how exposed you'd be to winds from that direction, elevation. Probably nothing too severe. Maybe up to around 55-60 km/h sustained in places.

    It's a glancing blow so it will be the west coast that gets the worst.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Would depend upon how far inland, how exposed you'd be to winds from that direction, elevation. Probably nothing too severe. Maybe up to around 55-60 km/h sustained in places.

    It's a glancing blow to it will be the west coast that gets the worse.

    Gust are usually double so you're right nothing too severe.
    Maybe might change track and impact us more or even less
    These systems are notoriously hard to pin I suppose
    Would love a severe storm ha, keep my mind off this horrendous hangover
    cheers for responding


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    My twitter convo with bbc newsline weather


    @NEWSLINEWEATHER Hi Cee,met.ie have a wind warning out for Ulster tomorrow. 140kph west C . Met office have nothing. will it be a storm in a teacup
    Expand
    8m BBC NEWSLINE ‏@NEWSLINEWEATHER
    Strongest winds up the west coast and further south in the Irish Sea. Tomorrow night the north coast may be at risk! Cee


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Weathering wrote: »
    My twitter convo with bbc newsline weather


    @NEWSLINEWEATHER Hi Cee,met.ie have a wind warning out for Ulster tomorrow. 140kph west C . Met office have nothing. will it be a storm in a teacup
    Expand
    8m BBC NEWSLINE ‏@NEWSLINEWEATHER
    Strongest winds up the west coast and further south in the Irish Sea. Tomorrow night the north coast may be at risk! Cee

    UK Met Office has a wind warning for Highlands & Eilean Siar. Doesn't really impact N.I. much because of the angle the winds are coming in at.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Bejubby


    What time frame are we looking at here for winds to pick up?

    I'm on the south east coast and going by the charts posted here I'm guessing gusts of up to 60 or 70 kmh. Would that be right?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Bejubby wrote: »
    What time frame are we looking at here for winds to pick up?

    I'm on the south east coast and going by the charts posted here I'm guessing gusts of up to 60 or 70 kmh. Would that be right?

    Yeah southeast coasts could see some strong winds too tomorrow evening, not as severe as in the west though. I'd say gusts up to about 100 km/h are possible.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Bejubby


    A bit of excitement anyway, better than current weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,019 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    Are these north westerlies?

    We are heading to Achill Island and we'd like to be prepared.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Call me Al wrote: »
    Are these north westerlies?

    We are heading to Achill Island and we'd like to be prepared.

    South to southwest winds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,019 ✭✭✭Call me Al



    South to southwest winds.

    Thanks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    Met Eireann have downgraded the sea area forecast with the 1800 issue.



    Outlook for a further 24 hours until 1800 Saturday 29 December 2012: Southerly winds will reach storm force along western and northern coasts during tomorrow evening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭cyclops999


    www.meteoalarm.info How severe is this going to be:confused:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Tactical wrote: »
    Met Eireann have downgraded the sea area forecast with the 1800 issue.



    Outlook for a further 24 hours until 1800 Saturday 29 December 2012: Southerly winds will reach storm force along western and northern coasts during tomorrow evening.

    Not sure it's much of a downgrade. The previous sea area outlook mentioned storm force winds on coasts too. This one doesn't mention violent storm force gusts, but if the sustained winds are going to be storm force then you'd expect the gusts to be possible violent storm force anyway.

    There may have been some changes on the latest run of their model. Latest NAE still shows violent storm force sustained at sea anyway.

    Will see if anything changes after the 18Z.


This discussion has been closed.
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