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Storm Saturday Night: Winds rapidly increasing with extreme gusts to 70kts+

  • 22-12-2012 12:37pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Dont see anything on this so I will start the thread if its ok with the mods.

    What are the conditions going to be like with this low pressure system


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I posted this in the model thread last night. Might as well re-post it here. Probably won't be very significant but there is feck all else happening at the moment anyway.


    2012122306_201212211816_1_stormforecast.xml.png
    A level 1 was issued across Ireland mainly for severe straight-line wind gusts.

    Around 00 UTC on Sunday, a rather vigorous vorticity maximum and an associated SFC cold front will cross Ireland and the westen UK. The cold front may be accompanied by a narrow and shallow line of strongly-forced convection, capable of mixing some 30 m/s winds (present at 850 hPa) to the ground. WRF supports this scenario by simulating a band of weak CAPE near the location of the cold front. Will place a LVL1 threat where forcing for upward motion will be the strongest (and presumably, convection the deepest), which should be the most likely location for effective vertical momentum transfer.

    30 m/s = 108 km/hour

    NAE shows 850 hPa winds up to 130 km/hour. Will be interesting to see if anything like that does get mixed down to the surface.

    Zj9jt.png

    Met Eireann have issued an advisory.

    Issued at 21 December 2012 - 18:31

    Weather Advisory

    On Saturday night and Sunday morning, southwest to west winds are likely to increase in most parts of the country with mean speeds and gusts that have the potential to be damaging. Typical values may range 55 to 70 km/hr mean, 85 to 110 km/hr gust. Valid 22:00/22-12-2012 to 10:00/23-12-2012

    Edit : Weather alert issued now :
    Issued at 22 December 2012 - 12:12
    Weather Alert
    West to southwest winds will become very strong and gusty tonight with damaging gusts possible in Co. Clare and in coastal counties of Connacht and Ulster, where mean wind speeds will reach 55 to 70 km/hr with gusts of 85 to 110 km/hr.

    Over the rest of the country winds speeds will range from 45 to 60 km/hr with gusts of 65 to 80 km/hr, strongest in coastal areas

    Valid time 2200z 22/12/2012 to 0600z 23/12/12


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A downgrade on the 1602 update from Met Eireann -Outbreaks of rain will continue to be persistent at times this evening and tonight, before finally clearing later in the night. It will be windy overnight with lowest temperatures of 5 to 7 degrees.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    A downgrade on the 1602 update from Met Eireann -Outbreaks of rain will continue to be persistent at times this evening and tonight, before finally clearing later in the night. It will be windy overnight with lowest temperatures of 5 to 7 degrees.
    move along please. Nothing happening here. Very calm here. Another FALSE alarm. Just pure Atlantic muck here. Rain and very mild 13c


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    snaps wrote: »
    move along please. Nothing happening here. Very calm here. Another FALSE alarm. Just pure Atlantic muck here. Rain and very mild 13c

    You're jumping the gun a bit there aren't you?

    The alert is for 2200z 22/12/2012 to 0500Z 23/12/2012. Doesn't even start for another 4 hours.

    In fact, the latest NAE is showing even stronger 850 hpa winds than earlier.

    12122303_2212.gif


    Thats showing 850 hpa winds close to 140 km/h at 3am Sunday. The Estofex warning is becaue they believe some of those winds could get mixed down to the surface in convective gusts.

    Time will tell if the models and Estofex are right or wrong, and it may not end up being very significant, but it hasn't even happened yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Where do you think the worst winds are likely to be.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Where do you think the worst winds are likely to be.

    Well it will be windy anyway on west and northwest coasts due to the tighter isobars from that low pressure system, but nothing very strong. The Estofex warning is for something else though, straight-line wind gusts from "a narrow and shallow line of strongly-forced convection" possibly bringing winds that would normally be high up, down to the surface. Between around midnight and 3am. If it does happen it could be in a fairly limited area and pass by very fast. The warning covers pretty much all of the island though.

    I wouldn't expect anything too serious, but it will be interesting to see what happens anyway.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭greysides


    I've heard of high winds occasionally coming down to the surface as mentioned above. In simple-speak (Secondary school geography, 30 years ago), what has to happen for this to occur? What happens to the winds/air that should be at the surface?
    Thanks.

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert

    The ultimate purpose of debate is not to produce consensus. It's to promote critical thinking.

    Adam Grant



  • Registered Users Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Conor30


    greysides wrote: »
    I've heard of high winds occasionally coming down to the surface as mentioned above. In simple-speak (Secondary school geography, 30 years ago), what has to happen for this to occur? What happens to the winds/air that should be at the surface?
    Thanks.
    Found this informative:
    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/406/


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭greysides


    Conor30 wrote: »

    Thank you.

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert

    The ultimate purpose of debate is not to produce consensus. It's to promote critical thinking.

    Adam Grant



  • Registered Users Posts: 908 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Has gotten very windy here in Kerry, worse than i expected even though not extreme.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Has gotten very windy here in Kerry, worse than i expected even though not extreme.

    Yeah should be getting quite windy around Kerry and Clare, peaking around midnight to 1am. You can see the tight spacing of the isobars around there.

    12122300_2218.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Met 3 hour. Moving in.

    233671.gif

    Valentia, Sherkin Is, Roches Pt, Mace and Knock all reporting gale gusts on 10pm reports. Hardly a breeze here. :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z NAE has 850 hpa winds at 3am up to 148km/h. If Estofex are right and some of those higher level winds do get mixed down to the surface overnight there will certainly be potential for some damaging gusts somewhere. Still remains to be seen if that will actually happen though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭weisses


    Wind is howling here ... very strong gusts


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Gale Warning

    Southwest to west winds will reach gale force on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea overnight and on Sunday morning, with strong gale to storm force winds likely on coasts from Loop Head to Malin Head to Belfast Lough.

    Issued at 23:00 on 22-Dec-2012


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,689 ✭✭✭Vain


    Getting bad in Tralee in Co Kerry, bad gusts, bits of trees along roads, road cones blown around the place!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Its v-e-r-y gusty indeed, all gusts in fact.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Wind has picked up quite dramatically in the past hour here in Galway, not quite 'stormy' but really noticeable now compared to earlier with a constant howl


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,070 ✭✭✭Birroc


    Wow, wind really picking up in West Galway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    The traffic on this thread is encouraging. Hope we get a battering in Donegal. Hope its worse than expected


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Sudden increase in winds here.

    This could pack a sneaky punch as the tight gradient pulls north.

    A strong westerly into Greater Dublin area could get 55-60kt gusts in the next 6 hours.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,960 ✭✭✭DarkJager


    Its getting quite wild in Limerick now, very strong and sustained gusts blowing outside.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Sudden increase in winds here.

    This could pack a sneaky punch as the tight gradient pulls north.

    A strong westerly into Greater Dublin area could get 55-60kt gusts in the next 6 hours.

    Speeds for Donegal? thanks


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Sudden increase in winds here.

    This could pack a sneaky punch as the tight gradient pulls north.

    A strong westerly into Greater Dublin area could get 55-60kt gusts in the next 6 hours.

    WC did you see the estofex level 1 for convective gusts? 18Z NAE 850 winds up to 80kt at 0300.


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    VERY windy. East galway


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,104 ✭✭✭moonflower


    It's really windy here in Galway city centre and I'm fairly sure I've just heard some thunder.


  • Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭smallwonder


    Winds just picking up here...went from being quite calm to gusty in the space of an hour.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Guys I am not joking here in Salthill Galway the wind is screaming in from the sea got blown over crossing the road this wind only increasrd in the past hour it was calm two hours ago


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    met.ie wind reports at 20past will be interesting


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  • Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    Just got a gust off 42 mph


This discussion has been closed.
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