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21-11-2012, 19:52   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Heavy Rain South/South East. Possible Flooding Sunday 25 November

Maybe using % risk type threads will lower the chance of upset from some of our members.

I highlight a potential for a damaging wind storm Sunday as a wave feature currently near the Azores tracks northeastwards towards Ireland & the UK.

The feature is forecast to track near a very strong jet streak and some forecast models are highlighting the prospect of it intensifying quite markedly as it approaches Ireland/UK and moves northeastwards through the region.

Some models such as GFS prefer moving a less developed low through the region.



ECM 72hrs


ECM 96hrs



A few GFS Ensembles highlight the severe risk that this could bring to the country.

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21-11-2012, 20:00   #2
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ECM Freebie today are the Ensembles timestamps.

Let's hope they are still free this evening.

This mornings run of the EPS show the potential positions of the storm.


http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspe...!2012112100!!/
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21-11-2012, 22:41   #3
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Some models are playing with the idea of a low pressure system tracking up from the Iberian coast. Don't see anything as strong as the GFS EN you have there. The lowest I see is 993.

Plus I'd prefer if this Sunday wasn't wet and windy. So please be wrong Weathercheck
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21-11-2012, 23:02   #4
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Yea, 18z GFS having none of it. But ECM was quite intense in the 84hr frame..
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22-11-2012, 09:20   #5
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0z ECM SENDS this 'system' to England mainly...around Sunday.

[img] http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...00/ECM1-72.GIF[/img]
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22-11-2012, 11:02   #6
 
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Latest EMHI chart for Saturday 12z; pretty much in line with the ECM 00z. Has a narrow region sustained gale 8 - 9 on its southwestern flank and throwing up the potential for some heavy rain into the south and more especially southeastern corner of the country. GFS keeping the low more to our SE but worth keeping an eye on regardless.

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22-11-2012, 11:04   #7
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~5 GFS Ensembles have the system impacting us.

Certainly a very difficult one to call for forecasters.

25% risk this could come off, and it has moved into the Day 3 forecast

Once the system travels over the Azores, hopefully the increase in data coverage will increase forecast accuracy.

Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 22-11-2012 at 11:07.
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22-11-2012, 11:16   #8
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Could be some strong winds in the English Channel if the ECM is right.

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22-11-2012, 14:15   #9
 
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Nice WV image (at 12z) of the developing wave feature. Going to be an interesting one to watch develop over the next couple of days.

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22-11-2012, 15:48   #10
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NAE has storm sub 988mb at T48rhrs while GFS has it ~1000mb


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22-11-2012, 15:54   #11
munsterlegend
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[QUOTE=Weathercheck;81880637]NAE has storm sub 988mb at T48rhrs while GFS has it ~1000mb




is it further west to affect Ireland or still on for a UK track?
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22-11-2012, 16:01   #12
Sleety_Rain
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[QUOTE=munsterlegend;81880740]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Weathercheck View Post
NAE has storm sub 988mb at T48rhrs while GFS has it ~1000mb




is it further west to affect Ireland or still on for a UK track?
In that sequence probably the UK but some parts of Ireland particularly east at risk.
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22-11-2012, 17:15   #13
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BBC forecast today had 2 systems heading our way,one on Saturday & another on Sunday with the latter being the more severe which they tracked to hit SW England while the system on Saturday is to come closer to Ireland.

All subject to change of course,but they concur with what's being forecast here.
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22-11-2012, 18:04   #14
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http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

A lot of rain for Southern parts Saturday evening per the Nedbor link on this.
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22-11-2012, 18:16   #15
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ECM throws system north through England, poss storm force winds.
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