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Possible Heavy Thunderstorms & Local Flooding (Wednesday 18th July)

  • 14-07-2012 6:10pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Hey all, doubt anyone is seriously contemplating a return of even normal summer weather at this stage. :(


    Early Tuesday morning bands of heavy showery rain will move into western areas and extend across the country through the morning and may well bring some fairly intense thunderstorm activity particularly to the North and East through the afternoon and evening. At the moment is looks like the showers or longer spells of rain will last through the night aswell although near the south coast might turn drier.


    However it's Wednesday that might focus minds in here over the next couple of days. Bare in mind this is still 4 days out so not certain by any means. There is a risk of some thunderstorms, periods of torrential rain and hail on Wednesday.

    There is already a thread for thunderstorm activity. This thread is more for a risk of flooding in some areas.

    213200.png


    213201.png


    213202.png

    With the ground already more than saturated across much of the country it would not take a long period of intense rainfall to cause problems. Definitely something to watch!:)


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Seriously, just go away! :mad: :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Updated chart for same time. Could be hit or miss but worth watching.

    120714_1200_96.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I have edited the OP to reflect a moderate risk of relatively extreme rain events particularly for the northern half of the country. At this point the far south may remain free of thundery showers on Wednesday. However I think some nasty storms are in prospect further north and that is particularly the case on Wednesday.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Certainly looks like the north and west will play catchup.

    Rainfall this month from Shannon to Mullingar and points n and w was not as bad as points s and e of that line.

    I'd point out that tillage is less common in that northern zone and thst tillage and dairy areas seem set to avoid the worst of this along with lodging crops etc.

    For us...who live here...looks like level 1 TBH .


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,776 ✭✭✭up for anything


    All that changes in these threads are the dates of the Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Is there something about those particular days of the week that encourage slight risks of extreme events? :D


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Bump! Just a reminder that from tomorrow morning till Wednesday night there is potential for heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Tomorrow it looks like the north, northwest and east getting the worst of any downpours but everywhere is at risk. And it looks like a period of more widespread and very heavy rain tomorrow night followed by more downpours and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Some spot flooding is likely in places.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    good

    we need it


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    This event will only be noticed in the West/Northwest, it will be wet with the odd clap of thunder. By West of Ireland standards it will be unremarkable.

    Today, with no particular advance warning, 12mm of rain fell at Casement and 11mm at Dublin Airport.

    This is 1/5 of an Average July Rainfall so far today for those 2 stations and today was the wettest day so far this month in Dublin Airport.

    The Tues/Weds event will be nearer a cumulative 20mm falling north from a line roughly from Mace Head NE to Ballyhaise but that is unremarkable in the west and northwest. 20mm in the west is around 25% of an average July Rainfall but the western and northern stations are nowhere close to their July averages to date...(bar Valentia)

    Gurteen got well over 20mm in only one day last week, 13mm of which fell in only one hour, and never got a thread to itself at all although I believe I did comment on the 13mm at the time. :)

    By weds it may even be sunny in south Leinster and east Munster so enjoy y'áll down there. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    today in sligo town centre there was a shower of 2 to 3mm about that lasted for 5 mnutes, pouring.

    at my house 1 mile away there was none.

    so i may need to up my rainfall figure for the month.

    at the moment it is 39mm but this shower means sligo rainfall is closer to 42mm although they might not have got some of the showers we got earlier in the month.

    thunder showers really skew the accuracy of the monthly figures! grrrr


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    They do Paul but the west coast met stations average c.80mm in July so you are only barely AVERAGE seeing as today is the 16th or 17th. :)

    And it will be much drier starting Thurdsday onwards meaning this month will come in below average rainfall from Galway to Belfast and points n and w in my opinion. .


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Wouldn't mind some proper rain around here either, while its been far from dry we've rarely had anything more than light rain and drizzle for much of the past few months

    Not far off 50mm here over the next 48 hours on HIRLAM's prediction, doubt we'll get that much but hopefully it might be a bit more interesting than the usual misty stuff

    120718181612.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I think this has been a good advance alert, and have been following it in the planning of the daily forecasts. This morning, I will be upgrading the wording for Wednesday to include mention of severe local storms and a slight tornado risk. I think the dynamics will be best from about Sligo southeast towards Dublin. Readers should note that this is not a forecast of a tornado in all of those counties, of course, but a watch for one or two localized storms that could develop. Today could also be quite active for thunderstorms in the north later.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,254 ✭✭✭positron


    So this means there won't be any dust storms or drought in the next couple of weeks?! Woohoo, that's great news!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Some pretty intense waves of rain here earlier on this morning giving some high totals in a short space of time. Got absolutely drenched when taking a shortcut home through a football pitch, but rain was really warm and felt good on the skin. Must have been a fairly local affair as looking at stats from nearby Galway, they seem to have missed out on these showers completely.

    http://weather.nuigalway.ie/12HourTrends.php


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I suppose a bit of convection could get going over the southern half of the country as the higher level muck clears to the north.

    Although potential somewhat limited yet.

    Models want to initiate some heavy convective precip from 9PM across the mid-west spreading northeastwards.

    http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

    Temps up to 23c in Dublin Region @ 1500hrs


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    As always its now looking like a non event around here with nothing more than the usual misty rain we always get from these systems. Heavier stuff staying further south from Sligo/Mayo to east Ulster


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    I suppose a bit of convection could get going over the southern half of the country as the higher level muck clears to the north.

    Although potential somewhat limited yet.

    Models want to initiate some heavy convective precip from 9PM across the mid-west spreading northeastwards.

    http://www.sat24.com/en/gb
    Skies are darkening near Limerick City as I write.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Skies are darkening near Limerick City as I write.

    Yes you can see on the satellite some convective cells now firing up.

    Next few hours will be interesting.

    http://www.sat24.com/en/gb


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Some potential this evening and overnight for weak thunderstorm activity but more concerned about developments later towards 0900-1200h Wed as a more supported trough follows -- guidance indicates better chances of significant convection including severe thunderstorm potential in two zones, one across the inland south from about mid-Kerry to Wexford-Wicklow, and one across the north central regions from about Donegal Bay and inland Mayo to Meath. Although that makes it sound like Kildare and Dublin would be in between two tracks of heavier storms, the complex could allow for heavy or severe cells to develop between these tracks. This activity would begin in the west after 0900h and would impact the east around 1300-1500h.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,159 ✭✭✭emo72


    Kicking off in West Dublin? The sky turned black and a shower out of nowhere.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    emo72 wrote: »
    Kicking off in West Dublin? The sky turned black and a shower out of nowhere.

    Certainly has gone dark her in D11 too , with a nice small but intense echo on radar... need some rain as its been so humid all afternoon!
    Thunder would be nice thought too! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,159 ✭✭✭emo72


    Twas beautiful so it was. I thought thunder was a definite with all that heat.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,449 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    We are having an absolute downpour here in North Tipperary at the moment. Some localised flooding occurring in parts, and its only been raining a few minutes.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Any above normal rainfall you would suspect is going to lead to some local spot flooding given the saturation levels atm.


    That heavy band of rain crossing the country and intensifying somewhat as it does - might have the odd embedded thunderstorm - but, as MT says it's from early tomorrow things might just get lively. Still fairly warm and humid out there.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,102 ✭✭✭Stinicker


    Bucketing it down here in South Kerry for most of the afternoon, localised flooding already.


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Loads of lovely pinky purply on the radar :)

    :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    RAIN ON THE WAY! WOOO! COol the air down so i will sleep tonight ! :D


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    RAIN ON THE WAY! WOOO! COol the air down so i will sleep tonight ! :D

    You are way too excited, no sleep tonight for you :)

    :D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    It's about to start raining in the citeh


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    4.3mm at Gurteen from that fast moving band of rain on 10pm reports:

    http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

    Gurteen turning out to be one of the wettest stations this summer so far.


    (posted this in wrong thread a few secs ago)


This discussion has been closed.
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