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14-07-2012, 19:10   #1
darkman2
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Possible Heavy Thunderstorms & Local Flooding (Wednesday 18th July)

Hey all, doubt anyone is seriously contemplating a return of even normal summer weather at this stage.


Early Tuesday morning bands of heavy showery rain will move into western areas and extend across the country through the morning and may well bring some fairly intense thunderstorm activity particularly to the North and East through the afternoon and evening. At the moment is looks like the showers or longer spells of rain will last through the night aswell although near the south coast might turn drier.


However it's Wednesday that might focus minds in here over the next couple of days. Bare in mind this is still 4 days out so not certain by any means. There is a risk of some thunderstorms, periods of torrential rain and hail on Wednesday.

There is already a thread for thunderstorm activity. This thread is more for a risk of flooding in some areas.









With the ground already more than saturated across much of the country it would not take a long period of intense rainfall to cause problems. Definitely something to watch!
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Last edited by darkman2; 15-07-2012 at 13:48.
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14-07-2012, 19:18   #2
 
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Seriously, just go away!
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14-07-2012, 20:59   #3
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Updated chart for same time. Could be hit or miss but worth watching.

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15-07-2012, 05:03   #4
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I have edited the OP to reflect a moderate risk of relatively extreme rain events particularly for the northern half of the country. At this point the far south may remain free of thundery showers on Wednesday. However I think some nasty storms are in prospect further north and that is particularly the case on Wednesday.

Last edited by darkman2; 15-07-2012 at 05:09.
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15-07-2012, 12:29   #5
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Certainly looks like the north and west will play catchup.

Rainfall this month from Shannon to Mullingar and points n and w was not as bad as points s and e of that line.

I'd point out that tillage is less common in that northern zone and thst tillage and dairy areas seem set to avoid the worst of this along with lodging crops etc.

For us...who live here...looks like level 1 TBH .
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15-07-2012, 14:23   #6
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All that changes in these threads are the dates of the Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Is there something about those particular days of the week that encourage slight risks of extreme events?
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16-07-2012, 23:43   #7
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Bump! Just a reminder that from tomorrow morning till Wednesday night there is potential for heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Tomorrow it looks like the north, northwest and east getting the worst of any downpours but everywhere is at risk. And it looks like a period of more widespread and very heavy rain tomorrow night followed by more downpours and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Some spot flooding is likely in places.
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16-07-2012, 23:49   #8
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good

we need it
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17-07-2012, 00:35   #9
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This event will only be noticed in the West/Northwest, it will be wet with the odd clap of thunder. By West of Ireland standards it will be unremarkable.

Today, with no particular advance warning, 12mm of rain fell at Casement and 11mm at Dublin Airport.

This is 1/5 of an Average July Rainfall so far today for those 2 stations and today was the wettest day so far this month in Dublin Airport.

The Tues/Weds event will be nearer a cumulative 20mm falling north from a line roughly from Mace Head NE to Ballyhaise but that is unremarkable in the west and northwest. 20mm in the west is around 25% of an average July Rainfall but the western and northern stations are nowhere close to their July averages to date...(bar Valentia)

Gurteen got well over 20mm in only one day last week, 13mm of which fell in only one hour, and never got a thread to itself at all although I believe I did comment on the 13mm at the time.

By weds it may even be sunny in south Leinster and east Munster so enjoy y'áll down there.
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17-07-2012, 00:39   #10
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today in sligo town centre there was a shower of 2 to 3mm about that lasted for 5 mnutes, pouring.

at my house 1 mile away there was none.

so i may need to up my rainfall figure for the month.

at the moment it is 39mm but this shower means sligo rainfall is closer to 42mm although they might not have got some of the showers we got earlier in the month.

thunder showers really skew the accuracy of the monthly figures! grrrr
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17-07-2012, 00:43   #11
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They do Paul but the west coast met stations average c.80mm in July so you are only barely AVERAGE seeing as today is the 16th or 17th.

And it will be much drier starting Thurdsday onwards meaning this month will come in below average rainfall from Galway to Belfast and points n and w in my opinion. .
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17-07-2012, 03:04   #12
 
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Wouldn't mind some proper rain around here either, while its been far from dry we've rarely had anything more than light rain and drizzle for much of the past few months

Not far off 50mm here over the next 48 hours on HIRLAM's prediction, doubt we'll get that much but hopefully it might be a bit more interesting than the usual misty stuff

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17-07-2012, 07:03   #13
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I think this has been a good advance alert, and have been following it in the planning of the daily forecasts. This morning, I will be upgrading the wording for Wednesday to include mention of severe local storms and a slight tornado risk. I think the dynamics will be best from about Sligo southeast towards Dublin. Readers should note that this is not a forecast of a tornado in all of those counties, of course, but a watch for one or two localized storms that could develop. Today could also be quite active for thunderstorms in the north later.
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17-07-2012, 09:25   #14
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So this means there won't be any dust storms or drought in the next couple of weeks?! Woohoo, that's great news!!
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17-07-2012, 15:40   #15
 
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Some pretty intense waves of rain here earlier on this morning giving some high totals in a short space of time. Got absolutely drenched when taking a shortcut home through a football pitch, but rain was really warm and felt good on the skin. Must have been a fairly local affair as looking at stats from nearby Galway, they seem to have missed out on these showers completely.

http://weather.nuigalway.ie/12HourTrends.php
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