Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
13-06-2012, 11:57   #1
Redsunset
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,674
Windy & Heavy Rain Watch With Possible Local Flooding (Thurs/Fri June 14/15)

While no official warning has been issued , the outlook for part of Thursday into Friday looks fairly miserable with what looks like some prolonged rain and the possibility of embedded thundery downpours. So based on current models a heavy rain watch with some brisk winds is worth keeping an eye on as some localised flooding may become an issue once again. It does not look particularly serious at the moment but deserving of a thread just in case.


Met Éireann
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Thursday
Heavier more persistent rain in the southwest will gradually extend countrywide. Becoming windy too, with strengthening easterly winds. Highest temperatures will range 13 to 17 degrees Celsius, best values across the northern half of the country.

Thursday night will be wet and windy with gale force easterly winds and persistent and heavy, driving rain especially in the East and Southeast.

Friday will continue wet in many areas with some very heavy downpours giving spot flooding. The rain will turn more showery in Southern parts with some brighter spells but the showers here are likely to be very heavy and thundery with the continued risk of flooding locally.
Highest temperatures will range 12 to 15 degrees but the strong East to Southeast winds will make it feel cool.



Last edited by Redsunset; 13-06-2012 at 18:04.
Redsunset is offline  
Advertisement
13-06-2012, 12:13   #2
DOCARCH
Moderator
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 11,668
Groundhog Day! Here we go again.
DOCARCH is offline  
13-06-2012, 13:04   #3
Tom Cruises Left Nut
Registered User
 
Tom Cruises Left Nut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 8,714
Some interesting weather ! Excellent !
Tom Cruises Left Nut is offline  
13-06-2012, 14:15   #4
Redsunset
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,674
Below are model comparison charts from the main models showing location of system at +48hrs in first image of 4 and +72hrs in second image of 4.
They also include the precip totals for said time period. So if we take the GFS as an example, first set of charts we can see that much of the south of the country is looking at between 20mm-30mm of rain up to friday 00.00 and then another 10mm-15mm up to Saturday 00.00.
Just a thought of what we could be experiencing.

+48


+72
Attached Images
File Type: jpg +48 model comparison.JPG (170.8 KB, 1734 views)
File Type: jpg +72 model comparison.JPG (169.4 KB, 1745 views)
Redsunset is offline  
13-06-2012, 14:29   #5
Redsunset
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,674
Also of some note is that the UKMO have issued a Be Aware for eastern parts of Northern Ireland. Valid from: 0005 on Fri 15 Jun 2012, Valid to: 2359 on Fri 15 Jun 2012

Rain will become persistent and at times heavy during Friday, with the heaviest rain over more eastern parts of Northern Ireland. The rain will be accompanied by strong easterly winds. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.


And I forgot to mention our resident forecaster M.T Cranium also issued this alert this morning.

ADVANCE ALERT continued for heavy rain and strong winds developing Thursday and persisting through Friday into early Saturday. Heaviest rains south-central counties, 50-75 mms total, otherwise 25-50 mms.
Redsunset is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
13-06-2012, 14:39   #6
Green Diesel
Registered User
 
Green Diesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 410
I expect a deluge to make up for last weeks dissappointment

I've relocated to Kildare for this week, looking at the maps should be a bit wetter here than Mayo.
Green Diesel is offline  
13-06-2012, 15:03   #7
scargill
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,805
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Diesel View Post
I expect a deluge to make up for last weeks dissappointment

I've relocated to Kildare for this week, looking at the maps should be a bit wetter here than Mayo.
If you are in Newbridge now you are getting your wish!
scargill is offline  
13-06-2012, 15:06   #8
Green Diesel
Registered User
 
Green Diesel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 410
Quote:
Originally Posted by scargill View Post
If you are in Newbridge now you are getting your wish!
Has to be persistent to be of any use

Anyway, working out in Ballymun at the moment, but based in Leixlip for the week. Bring on the rain.
Green Diesel is offline  
13-06-2012, 16:20   #9
Birdnuts
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 6,831
This is the wettest first half of June I can ever remember - its been p***ing rain here most of today and those charts from Tommorrow to Saturday are frankly scary

PS: Anyone see the Beeb forecast this lunchtime - mentioned snow in the Scottish highlands from this system!!
Birdnuts is offline  
Advertisement
14-06-2012, 00:39   #10
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,801
Yes Summer seems to get worse every year. For the past 6 anyways. I was sure that this one would be warm. Maybe July will be. The weather hasnt been all that bad in Sligo really apart from the monsoon days of June 7th and 8th.

Next week there will be a slight improvement in weather conditions as the week goes on but we will never reach the warm day that 9 day forecasts are predicting ...in 9 days..every day!
pauldry is offline  
14-06-2012, 00:45   #11
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
This type of pattern (lows moving close to the south of Ireland) really has been a dominant feature since the start of April last. Looking back at the synoptic analysis charts, it seems the shift towards this pattern occurred just after the fine spell in late March when the anticyclone responsible moved to our NW which coincided with a shift southward of the mean position of the Jet Stream.

Stats wise, this really is reflected in the rainfall total distribution across the country over the last couple of months. For the period 1st April up to midnight yesterday (12th June) the wettest station in the country is Johnstown Castle in Co. Wexford which has seen a grand total of 254.5mm so far. Casement's period total not far behind at 246.0mm. On the other end of the spectrum, Malin Head, yes, Malin! is the driest of all the reporting stations since the start of April with Belfast Aldergrove's period total of 142mm not far behind.

Table showing rainfall totals at selected synoptic stations for the period 1st April to 12th June 2012, shows just how abnormal distribution has been across the country over the period in question. (data from met.ie & Ogimet)

Attached Images
File Type: jpg apr-jun tots.jpg (24.8 KB, 1325 views)

Last edited by Deep Easterly; 14-06-2012 at 00:51. Reason: tidy ups
Deep Easterly is offline  
14-06-2012, 07:12   #12
up for anything
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 5,534
One of mine is off on his school tour to Ardmore Adventure Centre (Co Waterford). What are the chances that it'll be perfect weather for surfing or will it be too windy for beginners?
up for anything is offline  
14-06-2012, 09:01   #13
cruais
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,497
Anyone have a proper update for Saturday? Wedding day! I don't fancy swimming to the church!
cruais is offline  
14-06-2012, 09:07   #14
Nabber
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,297
Could change by Saturday. But below is how 2 of the models look for Saturday

GFS


UKMO
Nabber is offline  
14-06-2012, 11:42   #15
Redsunset
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,674
Regardless of what the rainfall totals say below in chart till Saturday midday. I think it gives a good indication of where highest rainfall locations will be. All along the south, south east and eastern coastal counties could experience some flooding when you also take into account the strong onshore wind that may heap up water. South midlands should also experience a good soaking.

Still no official rainfall warning on Met Éireann website

Redsunset is offline  
Thanks from:
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search