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Windy & Heavy Rain Watch With Possible Local Flooding (Thurs/Fri June 14/15)

  • 13-06-2012 10:57am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    While no official warning has been issued , the outlook for part of Thursday into Friday looks fairly miserable with what looks like some prolonged rain and the possibility of embedded thundery downpours. So based on current models a heavy rain watch with some brisk winds is worth keeping an eye on as some localised flooding may become an issue once again. It does not look particularly serious at the moment but deserving of a thread just in case.


    Met Éireann
    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

    Thursday
    Heavier more persistent rain in the southwest will gradually extend countrywide. Becoming windy too, with strengthening easterly winds. Highest temperatures will range 13 to 17 degrees Celsius, best values across the northern half of the country.

    Thursday night will be wet and windy with gale force easterly winds and persistent and heavy, driving rain especially in the East and Southeast.

    Friday will continue wet in many areas with some very heavy downpours giving spot flooding. The rain will turn more showery in Southern parts with some brighter spells but the showers here are likely to be very heavy and thundery with the continued risk of flooding locally.
    Highest temperatures will range 12 to 15 degrees but the strong East to Southeast winds will make it feel cool.


    120613_0000_57.png


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Comments

  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Groundhog Day! :pac: Here we go again.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Some interesting weather ! Excellent !


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Below are model comparison charts from the main models showing location of system at +48hrs in first image of 4 and +72hrs in second image of 4.
    They also include the precip totals for said time period. So if we take the GFS as an example, first set of charts we can see that much of the south of the country is looking at between 20mm-30mm of rain up to friday 00.00 and then another 10mm-15mm up to Saturday 00.00.
    Just a thought of what we could be experiencing.

    +48
    208783.JPG

    +72
    208784.JPG


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Also of some note is that the UKMO have issued a Be Aware for eastern parts of Northern Ireland. Valid from: 0005 on Fri 15 Jun 2012, Valid to: 2359 on Fri 15 Jun 2012

    Rain will become persistent and at times heavy during Friday, with the heaviest rain over more eastern parts of Northern Ireland. The rain will be accompanied by strong easterly winds. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.


    And I forgot to mention our resident forecaster M.T Cranium also issued this alert this morning.

    ADVANCE ALERT continued for heavy rain and strong winds developing Thursday and persisting through Friday into early Saturday. Heaviest rains south-central counties, 50-75 mms total, otherwise 25-50 mms.


  • Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Green Diesel


    I expect a deluge to make up for last weeks dissappointment :)

    I've relocated to Kildare for this week, looking at the maps should be a bit wetter here than Mayo.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,679 ✭✭✭scargill


    I expect a deluge to make up for last weeks dissappointment :)

    I've relocated to Kildare for this week, looking at the maps should be a bit wetter here than Mayo.

    If you are in Newbridge now you are getting your wish!


  • Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Green Diesel


    scargill wrote: »
    If you are in Newbridge now you are getting your wish!

    Has to be persistent to be of any use :)

    Anyway, working out in Ballymun at the moment, but based in Leixlip for the week. Bring on the rain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    This is the wettest first half of June I can ever remember - its been p***ing rain here most of today and those charts from Tommorrow to Saturday are frankly scary:(

    PS: Anyone see the Beeb forecast this lunchtime - mentioned snow in the Scottish highlands from this system!!:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes Summer seems to get worse every year. For the past 6 anyways. I was sure that this one would be warm. Maybe July will be. The weather hasnt been all that bad in Sligo really apart from the monsoon days of June 7th and 8th.

    Next week there will be a slight improvement in weather conditions as the week goes on but we will never reach the warm day that 9 day forecasts are predicting ...in 9 days..every day!:confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    This type of pattern (lows moving close to the south of Ireland) really has been a dominant feature since the start of April last. Looking back at the synoptic analysis charts, it seems the shift towards this pattern occurred just after the fine spell in late March when the anticyclone responsible moved to our NW which coincided with a shift southward of the mean position of the Jet Stream.

    Stats wise, this really is reflected in the rainfall total distribution across the country over the last couple of months. For the period 1st April up to midnight yesterday (12th June) the wettest station in the country is Johnstown Castle in Co. Wexford which has seen a grand total of 254.5mm so far. Casement's period total not far behind at 246.0mm. On the other end of the spectrum, Malin Head, yes, Malin! is the driest of all the reporting stations since the start of April with Belfast Aldergrove's period total of 142mm not far behind.

    Table showing rainfall totals at selected synoptic stations for the period 1st April to 12th June 2012, shows just how abnormal distribution has been across the country over the period in question. (data from met.ie & Ogimet)

    208865.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,776 ✭✭✭up for anything


    One of mine is off on his school tour to Ardmore Adventure Centre (Co Waterford). What are the chances that it'll be perfect weather for surfing or will it be too windy for beginners?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭cruais


    Anyone have a proper update for Saturday? Wedding day! I don't fancy swimming to the church!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Could change by Saturday. But below is how 2 of the models look for Saturday

    GFS
    12061612_1400.gif

    UKMO
    12061612_1400.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Regardless of what the rainfall totals say below in chart till Saturday midday. I think it gives a good indication of where highest rainfall locations will be. All along the south, south east and eastern coastal counties could experience some flooding when you also take into account the strong onshore wind that may heap up water. South midlands should also experience a good soaking.

    Still no official rainfall warning on Met Éireann website

    12061612_1400.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    The Daily Mail have an article about this system with a warning for the Southwest of UK & Wales,grand until you read the typical nonsense comments such as "time to slap on the sunscreen so".

    So far in the past 2 days,every single time I step outside to do some work in my garden it has rained.It stopped about half an hour ago so out I went....made it as far as the shed door & viola-rain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,142 ✭✭✭Babooshka


    redsunset wrote: »
    Regardless of what the rainfall totals say below in chart till Saturday midday. I think it gives a good indication of where highest rainfall locations will be. All along the south, south east and eastern coastal counties could experience some flooding when you also take into account the strong onshore wind that may heap up water. South midlands should also experience a good soaking.

    Still no official rainfall warning on Met Éireann website


    EEK! Company "Bar-B-Q" this afternoon - West Dublin, do you reckon it'll be raining going by that at around 2.30 / 3 today?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Babooshka wrote: »
    EEK! Company "Bar-B-Q" this afternoon - West Dublin, do you reckon it'll be raining going by that at around 2.30 / 3 today?

    Rain Is already creeping up from the south and could be there come 3 pm. The weather will deteriorate as the day goes on anyway. A marquee would be ideal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    heading back down to youghal today. meh. it'll be grand :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Force 8 to strong galeforce 9 expected on southern coasts overnight with the system becoming cyclonic off the Kerry coast tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Rain has arrrived in Bray


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,193 ✭✭✭MrFrisp


    Some rain falling by the bucket load in Cork now...It's just relentless.....

    I love it.. :D






    .


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,193 ✭✭✭MrFrisp


    cruais wrote: »
    Anyone have a proper update for Saturday? Wedding day! I don't fancy swimming to the church!



    This is for Saturday,,according to M.E.


    "The rain will begin to move away to the east on Saturday morning, but eastern parts will still have some heavy bursts. In the west of the country it will become drier and brighter. The strong northerly winds will also ease off in the evening. Highs of 12 to 17 degrees, and it will be coolest in northern areas.
    As the rain clears on Saturday night it will become chilly with lows of 4 to 8 degrees."




    .


  • Registered Users Posts: 29 jjj6894x


    there's no real chance of another october 2011-style disaster, is there?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,210 ✭✭✭nelly17


    A big contribitury factor in Oct 2011 was the time of year a lot of stormdrains etc were clogged up with leaves which didnt help matters.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    jjj6894x wrote: »
    there's no real chance of another october 2011-style disaster, is there?

    This is nothing really. Standard wet and windy weather with a chance of spot flooding.


  • Registered Users Posts: 29 jjj6894x


    redsunset wrote: »
    This is nothing really. Standard wet and windy weather with a chance of spot flooding.

    thanks.

    while i'm at it, what exactly constitutes "spot flooding"? as a meteorological ignoramus, i have googled the term and can find no specific definition of what it is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Rain is worse in Cork today than it was last Thursday! Hasn't stopped since about 8.30/9 this morning


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,193 ✭✭✭MrFrisp


    leahyl wrote: »
    Rain is worse in Cork today than it was last Thursday! Hasn't stopped since about 8.30/9 this morning



    Yeah,,it's great.....Pity it's not Friday...I'd be settled in by now,,knowing I don't have to go anywhere else,,and would have beer in the fridge.





    .


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Just heard after the 4pm news on RTE that the wind will reach storm force overnight in the South West


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    SexyGuy wrote: »
    Yeah,,it's great.....Pity it's not Friday...I'd be settled in by now,,knowing I don't have to go anywhere else,,and would have beer in the fridge.





    .

    Match tonight though so looking forward to that - a lovely night to be plonked in front of the tv:D


This discussion has been closed.
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