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Windy (Gusts to 60MPH) + Heavy Rain & Flooding Thursday/Friday (June 7/8th)

  • 05-06-2012 3:46pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    As some forecasts indicate within 24hrs the chance of >100mm of rain over a wide area I must issue a extreme weather warning. Pay attention to local forecasts. There could be prolonged torrential rain today for a large swathe of the country.

    Looking increasingly grim this week with Thursday being the focus point for some vile weather.

    A depression develops to the south of Ireland late Wednesday with winds increasing strong to gale force along Southern and Eastern coasts.

    The system develops to around 980mb over Kerry and models indicate some really significant falls of rain possible.

    One to watch over the coming days as some models show very large amounts of rain falling >50mm and possibly to 100mm during a 36 hour period for some exposed locations.

    12z GFS rolling out.

    Some serious amounts progged near the west coast, but positioning of intense precip will change in coming days.

    Rtavn481.png

    Rtavn484.png

    Look at this cookie, could be quite windy too..

    Rtavn541.png


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Cheers Weathercheck, yes horrible conditions spreading up from the south as the low intensifies to about 983mb with plenty of rain wrapped around the system and lasting into Friday to give many a good soaking, especially western regions with some imbedded thunderstorms.

    120605_0000_60.png
    Met Eireann Outlook
    Thursday will be a wet day with spells of heavy persistent rain throughout the day. And it will also be fairly windy with strong southeasterly winds. There wont be any real clearance on Thursday night either, although the intensity of the rain will be reduced. However it will be followed by a very showery day on Friday, and the rainfall amounts through both Thursday and Friday will be typically 20 to 30mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    The South West is getting it rough this year, will the new Northwest rainshield come into effect this time round?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,027 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Pangea wrote: »
    The South West is getting it rough this year, will the new Northwest rainshield come into effect this time round?

    Unfortunately I heard it is going to be down for maintenance.

    I do like the prospect of thunderstorms from this for the West, would I be right in saying that showers will be travelling East to West from this depression?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Looks like south of a line from Galway to Dublin will get the worst. Further north the better.


  • Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Green Diesel


    Excellent, I'm down in coastal Mayo for the week. Hope it turns wild ! :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭diceyd


    how does it look for the east?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,027 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    snaps wrote: »
    Looks like south of a line from Galway to Dublin will get the best. Further north will be boring.

    Fixed your post. Its all about perspective.:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    On paper Thursday looks very wet
    Sometimes though these deep low's tend to move their ppn through quite quickly
    It wouldn't surprise me if we got some sunshine thurs afternoon for example.

    Certainly one to watch though over the next 24hours


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭dfbemt


    The worst thing has just happened to me !! The weather for the rest of the week looks miserable and not even Jean could make it sound better.

    Oh no ! Am I starting to lose my love for the only woman in my life? Jean said wet and I pictured wet. Jean said wild and I pictured wild. Wet n wild Jean, wet and wild.

    Now if Jean can't make the pain go away nobody can. Hurt me Jean, hurt me why don't you.

    Oh well. Wet n wild it is then...........


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    dfbemt wrote: »
    Oh well. Wet n wild it is then...........

    Was watching from Sunday, just discovered my waterproof camera is flat, FLAT? It's not that long since we got good rain it is? Debating whether to charge or not, just how wet did Jean say, did she smile?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭cyclops999


    How will the Athlone area fair out on Thursday as I have a wedding to go to?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    heres some guesses of rainfall for stations on Thursday/Friday

    Valentia 55mm
    Shannon 50mm
    Claremorris 45mm
    Belmullet 35mm
    Cork 30mm
    Mullingar 25mm
    Finner 20mm
    Sligo 32mm:)

    Anyone else want to throw in their 2pence worth or are ye all with the troika now?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    This looks even worse on tonights Met O fax charts and lasts well into friday!!:eek::(


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭df1985


    will this affect flights out of dublin friday. (poland invasion!)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    @df1985
    PCI-Dublin-Airport-388-cancelled-310x415.jpg

    :D:D

    should be just a wet and windy day with occasional sunny spells but worth keeping on eye on


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Pressure forecast to drop another 5mb compared to yesterday.Now showing 978mb.

    120606_0000_36.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Is there any hope of this tracking further south and missing us :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    km79 wrote: »
    Is there any hope of this tracking further south and missing us :(

    Very unlikely to miss us at this range and with central pressure dropping further it normally means a low swings more to the north.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    :eek:NAE showing max rainfall total to 6am Friday morning of 101mm. Now that's a slight risk of an extreme event if I ever seen one.Could be well wrong and will no doubt change many times before it gets here.

    12060806_0606.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Green Diesel


    MET Éireann weather warning:

    Issued at 06 June 2012 - 10:18
    Warning of Heavy Rain
    Thursday will be a wet day countrywide; 40 to 60mm of rain is forecast in Munster and Connacht, 30 to 50mm of rain is expected in Leinster and Ulster.

    Valid from 00:00 Thursday 7th June 2012
    Until 00:00 Friday 8th June 2012

    There is a risk of a further 20 to 30mm on Friday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    I think it's time to update this thread title to a moderate risk! By this stage, there ain't going to be any major changes so it's likely some large swath of the country is going to experience prolonged and heavy rainfall with a strong likelihood of flooding.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yes 6z GFS upgraded things a bit too.

    Could be quite bad in places, will upgrade to Moderate Risk now.

    Midwest looks to be badly hit.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes Thursday morning looks fairly bad in the south before spreading to pretty much all areas . Looks to be very showery come afternoon.

    ukprec.png

    ukprec.png

    ukprec.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Good to see Met Eireann are on their game with the weather warning and mentions of flooding in their forecast, even if it is just "localised flooding".
    It will be an interesting few days to say the least.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes Met Eireann are on the ball and watching very closely like ourselves. Oh god I love the weather.:)

    I think the previous deluge and now this could be the straw that breaks the camel's back as regard to flooding, we shall see and there's also more rain for Sunday


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Worst looks to be centred over my house ! :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 29 jjj6894x


    what's the outlook for leinster?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Flood-Warning-24.04.12.jpg

    I'll stick up the flood warning sign so as to give a more visual impact on the thread. After the recent heavy rain, the water table will have rose somewhat and the threat of flooding in places renown for it should be monitored just in case.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Looks like the rain will kick off before midnight down South and then continue for 24 hours more or less non stop.
    Could be as much as 4 inches in some parts.
    Also tides are quite high aswell.
    All in all flooding looks very likely esp for the South and West

    Winds while not severe will be enough to knock trees in full leaf. Windiest spell in the wrap around thurs night when speeds could touch 70mph in gusts


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Just look where the triple point is at midday tomorrow .Heavy rain for sure if it played out to this chart . Screen shot from my phone.

    207878.png

    apologies if very big as on my phone.


This discussion has been closed.
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