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Bank Holiday Weekend Heavy Rain Warning.(Spot/Local Flooding Likely)

  • 01-06-2012 3:18pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭


    MT's forecast today for Saturday night/Sunday morning:
    SATURDAY NIGHT and SUNDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times overnight and Sunday morning, especially Galway to Dublin and parts of inland southeast, potential for 20-40 mm totals including the day's earlier rain ... not as wet in east Ulster but some rain at times there. Lows near 10-12 C and highs about 14-16 C for the north and east, to 17-20 C south and southwest where skies could try to clear later afternoon.

    Met.ie Warning:
    Weather Warning

    Issued at 01 June 2012 - 10:55
    Rainfall warning.
    Between 25 and 65 mm of rain possible, (heaviest totals likely south midlands). The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by evening time. Rain slowly clearing southwards later Sunday.

    Valid 1200 Sat 2/6/12 to 2100 Sun 3/6/12.

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

    I think this is a very hard one to call given the relatively unusual synoptics that are forecast for this weekend but might be something to watch just for the sake of interest if nothing else.

    This is the 00z ECMWF rainfall forecast for late tomorrow afternoon, I have included some badly put explanations on the actual set up that could result in some places seeing some prolonged spells of rain over the course of the weekend.

    207307.png
    Image from yr.no

    Just to explain the chart a little, the warm, humid air mass that is over us now will be attacked from cooler polar air masses both to our north and southwest, helping to squeeze the life of out this humid air over Ireland. It is this 'squeezing' that will help to intensify the weak frontal zones that are currently hovering benignly over and close to the country at the moment.

    There is a high level of uncertainty as to actual track and intensity of the main rain band though, but it seems the southern half of the country is most at risk of seeing some prolonged spells of rain from Saturday evening through to Sunday afternoon which could be heavy at times.

    This thread could well end up being a 'bust', but it is something to keep an eye on anyways.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl



    I think this is a very hard one to call given the relatively unusual synoptics that are forecast for this weekend but might be something to watch just for the sake of interest if nothing else.

    This is the 00z ECMWF rainfall forecast for late tomorrow afternoon, I have included some badly put explanations on the actual set up that could result in some places seeing some prolonged spells of rain over the course of the weekend.



    This thread could well end up being a 'bust', but it is something to keep an eye on anyways.

    Might this rain not be as bad so as ME are making out Deep Easterly?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Coul be worse, they missed a setup like this altogether one bank holiday weekend ( August 1997 I think) and the southern half of the country was drenched with floods in Clonmel or thereabouts and while I scalded meself alive all weekend on Clew Bay under constant clear blue skies it rained for 2 days solid in Galway City.

    Once these Biscay 'pulses' set up they can be torrential, maybe they will only get as far as Wexford though.

    I'd say Clew Bay is the place to be this weekend too.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Agree with the OP. Pretty much spot on. Nothing spectacular but something to keep an eye on just in case.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    leahyl wrote: »
    Might this rain not be as bad so as ME are making out Deep Easterly?

    It may well not be, or it might even be worse! It really is a hard one to be anyway specific about due to complexity of the whole wider set up and they as well as MTC are right in warning people about this potential. The latest NAE and HIRLAM forecast charts are showing some fairly substantial rainfall totals falling over a 24 hour period over parts of Munster & Leinster in particular so the risk is there. Just a matter now of seeing whether it will materialize or not. :) and if not, we can always Blame it on the Weather Man!

    PS, just noticed I have the wrong time stamp on the chart in original post. The model run is from the 00z 1st (ie. today!) not the 2nd as I idiotically put on the map. smiley-bangheadonwall-yellow.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Coul be worse, they missed a setup like this altogether one bank holiday weekend ( August 1997 I think) and the southern half of the country was drenched

    Once these Biscay 'pulses' set up they can be torrential, maybe they will only get as far as Wexford though.

    I'd say Clew Bay is the place to be this weekend too.

    It can feck off 'til Monday or Tuesday.:pac: I want the South East to live up to it's name: Sunny!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    WarningsWeather WarningIssued at 01 June 2012 - 22:00

    Rain Warning Update

    Between 25mm & 65mm of rain over Connacht, Leinster and Munster, highest totals likely over the South Midlands.

    The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by eveningtime to affect much of Leinster, Connacht and the rest of Munster. The heaviest pulses of rain are expected Saturday night and early Sunday, with spot flooding. Rain retreating southwards Sunday afternoon.

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭dfbemt


    Based on Deep Easterly's OP I have put my fertiliser down on the grass. Needs to get a good soaking within 48 hours or I'll be looking at dust for the Summer.

    Will be happy with sun until tomorrow evening but I really need it to rain before I get up on Sunday morning.

    Sorry sun worshippers :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    dfbemt wrote: »
    Based on Deep Easterly's OP I have put my fertiliser down on the grass. Needs to get a good soaking within 48 hours or I'll be looking at dust for the Summer.

    Will be happy with sun until tomorrow evening but I really need it to rain before I get up on Sunday morning.

    Sorry sun worshippers :o

    That scenario is fine by me... Trading at Bandon Market tomorrow morning and my gazebo turned turtle in the high winds so I have no cover.. NB did not water the garden on the strength of a good soaking on the way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,326 ✭✭✭cml387


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Coul be worse, they missed a setup like this altogether one bank holiday weekend ( August 1997 I think) and the southern half of the country was drenched with floods in Clonmel or thereabouts and while I scalded meself alive all weekend on Clew Bay under constant clear blue skies it rained for 2 days solid in Galway City.

    .

    I remember it well (I've mentioned it here previously).
    Torrential rain didn't stop for two days.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    redsunset wrote: »
    WarningsWeather WarningIssued at 01 June 2012 - 22:00

    Rain Warning Update

    Between 25mm & 65mm of rain over Connacht, Leinster and Munster, highest totals likely over the South Midlands.

    The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest on Saturday, gradually extending northeastwards by eveningtime to affect much of Leinster, Connacht and the rest of Munster. The heaviest pulses of rain are expected Saturday night and early Sunday, with spot flooding. Rain retreating southwards Sunday afternoon.

    Thanks for posting that redsunset, because some on here will try to claim that forecast never existed if it does turn out to be accurate! :rolleyes:

    It is an interesting setup alright, with a jet streak to our north providing maximum QG forcing some time tomorrow afternoon / evening. The GFS chart for 18Z tomorrow below shows PW around 30-35 mm, and enhanced lift through the south and midlands, which should give really awful conditions through Munster and the midlands tomorrow afternoon and evening. Local topography should cause wide variations in rainfall amounts, with upwind (E-facing) slopes receiving the most tomorrow evening and night, and extensive low cloud and hill fog.

    2012060218_20.gif


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    12060318_0118.gif

    Umm latest HIrlam shows a good deluge of accumulated rainfall in line with Met Eireann's warning .
    I've edited thread title to highlight the threat of flooding.

    [IMG]http://[/img]http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/aemet/2012/06/01/basis18/ukuk/rsum/12060318_0118.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,322 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    will there be strong wind with it or just rain ? hopefully just rain - dont want that coming in horizontal like ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 837 ✭✭✭BarryM


    Update in the extreme SW, on Sherkin Island. Very light rain (<1mm) this last hour, wind E at 3bf, temp 14.9. ME's rainfall radar is showing we're in the yellow... I agree with the prognosis even though it hasn't been too warm except for a short period yesterday.

    The local ME station is showing 0.2mm rain at 08.00.

    Not very meteorological but reports locally are the sea temp has risen a lot in the last week and the ferry engine cooler intake got blocked with jelly fish yesterday!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,551 Mod ✭✭✭✭SeaFields


    Constant lightish rain in south kerry at the mo with the odd heavy burst

    Between this and the muggy, still air being a mecca for midges, my bank holiday BBQ may have to be cancelled this evening :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Just reading MT's forecast there and it seems he's mentioned every county except Cork as regards heavy rainfall (ok maybe slight exaggeration!) but he doesn't mention Cork at all and judging from those charts above we're in for some fairly heavy rainfall


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    leahyl wrote: »
    Just reading MT's forecast there and it seems he's mentioned every county except Cork as regards heavy rainfall (ok maybe slight exaggeration!) but he doesn't mention Cork at all and judging from those charts above we're in for some fairly heavy rainfall

    Heavy rain will indeed effect Cork today but its the thought of the front stalling over the midlands that i think he individually has mentioned those counties for.

    207379.png

    hi res shows the heaviest of the rains in the south about 5pm. But then shows the front as a whole stalling this evening before shifting SE tomorrow .


  • Registered Users Posts: 837 ✭✭✭BarryM


    BBC showing rain cleared the SW at 04.00 Sunday, yipee...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Met Éireann
    Heavy persistent rain progressively affecting much of S half of the country by evening.Some spot flooding.Highs 15-19C in freshening E winds.


    And dare I suggest that the east coast counties of Dublin, Wicklow, Meath, Louth get a good soaking with the potential for some streams/rivers bursting banks. Could be ample amount of rainwater pouring down from the Dublin,Wicklow hills/mountains to cause some concern later. Just putting it out there as this looks to be carrying alot of energy as it stalls for a time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 482 ✭✭Jim_Kiy


    Netweather reckoning heaviest rainfall in Dublin between 7 am an 10 am tomorrow morning.

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=2;ct=31739~Dublin;sess=#forecast

    Just hope it clears up for forbidden fruit festival in the afternoon but seems to be a hell of alot rain on the way before then.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    11 mm fell at Valentia since 7 am, 4 mm at Sherkin Island, 0.2 mm at Roches Point and 0.1 mm at Cork Airport.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15,515 ✭✭✭✭admiralofthefleet


    will it still be raining on monday in arklow?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Weather Warning

    Issued at 01 June 2012 - 12:00

    Rain Warning Update
    Between 25mm & 65mm of rain expected over Leinster and Munster, highest totals likely over the South Midlands.

    The heavy rain will initially affect the southwest today, gradually extending northeastwards by eveningtime. The heaviest pulses of rain are expected Saturday night and for a time on Sunday, with spot flooding. Rain retreating southwards Sunday afternoon
    and early evening

    valid from 1200 Saturday June 2
    until 2000 Sunday June 3

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

    And Met Eireann have issued this on
    http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index2.php?country=IE&day=0&lang=

    aw103.jpg

    valid from 02.06.2012 12:03 CET Until 03.06.2012 18:59 CET
    Rain Awareness Level: Orange
    "rain becoming heavy and persistent with local flooding"




    Updated thread title also to reflect Warnings.


  • Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Aiel


    Were'nt they talking just last week about the Reservoir's(sp) around the Dublin area being a bit low recently.So this rain should more then alleviate any water problems.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Well Well I see updated rainfall accumulations has now made the east coast very very wet, and spreads across Midlands. I might not be too mad after all. Plenty of water could be rushing down them hills. Evolving situation so nothing guaranteed.

    12060318_0206.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Aiel wrote: »
    Were'nt they talking just last week about the Reservoir's(sp) around the Dublin area being a bit low recently.So this rain should more then alleviate any water problems.

    Will help for sure, as we had a good dry spell.


    Met Éireann Via Twitter
    Hazy sun early this aft in N&NE.Rain in SW spreading NE'wrds to all but Ulst by midnight.Rain bec persistent/heavy/spot flooding.Max 15-19C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    redsunset wrote: »
    Well Well I see updated rainfall accumulations has now made the east coast very very wet, and spreads across Midlands. I might not be too mad after all. Plenty of water could be rushing down them hills. Evolving situation so nothing guaranteed.

    12060318_0206.gif

    Sorry redsunset but is that chart for particular time of day or is it just indicating where will get heaviest/most rainfall?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Its simply accumulated rainfall figures from now till Sunday evening. Don't take it as gospel.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Just light rain/heavy drizzle in Cork so far, barely forming puddles yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    Just light rain/heavy drizzle in Cork so far, barely forming puddles yet.

    I don't think Cork City will get much from this, the whole thing looks to push up far enough to leave your relatively dry much later and then the rain stalls over middle of country and slowly pivots before eventually pulling away to the south east.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    The radar is strange, big yellow blob over galway and mayo, but ive just driven from Galway and not a spot of rain. Sun is sort of shinning here in south mayo. people cutting their grass and all the kids are out playing.


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