Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
12-04-2012, 20:48   #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 4,258
Possible Storm Tuesday 17th April

It looks like next Monday a deep depression will form over the near Atlantic and move close to or over Ireland during Tuesday. Its exact path and depth are still unsure but it should be enough to bring some closure to a pretty benign couple of months' weather.

The current setup shows a deep trough over the Canadian Maritimes and a 1030 hPa Azores anticyclone, both causing a warm humid southeasterly flow over the western Atlantic. The jet is strengthening, and a surface low is now forming and will move towards Iceland over the weekend. The key feature is an upper shortwave trough following from behind, which will tighten the gradient further and form a 180 kt jet streak late on Sunday and will cause a second surface low to form and deepen rapidly during Monday. Depending on the rate of occlusion of this low, it will dive southeastwards and will pass very close to or over Ireland during Monday night and Tuesday.

A wet and windy day is in store, with strongest winds probably on the storms western flank. It's not worth noting exact details at the moment but it is one to keep an eye on over the next few days.

The GFS paints the most severe picture, but I would imagine it will step this down slightly in future runs. But it looks like the start of a much more mobile Atlantic phase.

Attached Images
File Type: png gfs.png (37.6 KB, 2282 views)

Last edited by Su Campu; 12-04-2012 at 22:17.
Su Campu is offline  
Advertisement
12-04-2012, 21:02   #2
Redsunset
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,674
[IMG][/IMG]
Good model agreement on evolution so far.

Cheers for that analysis Su, here's to a more exciting period in what has been somewhat of a bore fest. No downgrades please.

Last edited by Redsunset; 12-04-2012 at 21:07.
Redsunset is offline  
12-04-2012, 21:13   #3
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,993
Looks Interesting , looking to the 18z now

Met Éireanns take on the situation.

MONDAY : Heavy rain and strengthening southerly winds will spread from the Atlantic, turning to sleet for a time in parts of the north. Clearer weather, with scattered showers, will follow on Monday night, with winds veering southwest to west.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY : Cool and showery, some of the showers heavy and thundery, but there will be some sunny spells also. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds on Tuesday, with a risk of gales off Atlantic coasts, becoming moderate northerly by Wednesday.
Iancar29 is offline  
13-04-2012, 15:56   #4
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,538
Surprised there's not more posts here, looking like an interesting set up, GFS has the low passing right over the northern half of the country



ECMWF has it stalling and deepening to our west before swinging south easterly
Harps is offline  
(3) thanks from:
13-04-2012, 16:03   #5
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 6,299
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harps View Post
Surprised there's not more posts here, looking like an interesting set up,
I'm glued but have nothing to add.
gbee is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
13-04-2012, 22:39   #6
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,619
The worst of this storm will be to the extreme West with just strong winds elsewhere. Heavy rain too for a while but then back to the sunshine and showers set up.
pauldry is offline  
14-04-2012, 08:50   #7
Birdnuts
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 6,639
Significant upgrade of the winds for tuesday on GFS and ECM this morning with the latter hinting at a repeat performance for next weekend
Birdnuts is offline  
Thanks from:
14-04-2012, 12:54   #8
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,993


Attached Images
File Type: png Screen shot 2012-04-14 at 12.58.52.png (564.7 KB, 1878 views)
Iancar29 is offline  
14-04-2012, 21:35   #9
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 4,258
During tomorrow the surface low develops a slack 1012-1015 hPa centre in the western Atlantic. By this time tomorrow we will see it starting to develop explosively under the right rear quadrant of that potent 180+ knots jet streak, with central pressure falling around >35 hPa in 24 hours to Monday evening.



The ECMWF is most severe and has it attaining around 965 hPa off to our northwest by 06Z Tuesday morning, while the others are around 975 hPa. In any case, all seem pretty agreed that it from then on its centre will move southeastwards over the western half of the country, bringing gales to western areas.

Looks like nothing too extraordinary by the time it reaches us, though its winds, while still gale force in sea areas, will have eased slightly by then, with the strongest gradient off to our southwest. We could see 20-30 mm or rain in the western half of the country, with more like 10 mm in the east.

One to watch, but nothing drastic unless you're a ship.
Su Campu is offline  
(4) thanks from:
Advertisement
14-04-2012, 22:01   #10
Nabber
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,293
Which is a more likely out come? 975 hPa or 965 hPa?
Rain and wind anyways
Nabber is offline  
15-04-2012, 00:41   #11
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
18z paints a similar picture, with strongest of the winds along the west coast:



Exact track is far from certain though as has been said so defo something to keep an eye on over the next couple of days.
Attached Images
File Type: gif gfs18.20.gif (97.5 KB, 1665 views)
Deep Easterly is offline  
15-04-2012, 17:12   #12
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,993
Looks like the severity of the winds has dropped a bit more south .



I thinks its safe to say that it IS going to be a stormy Tuesday Now.

The rain will be gladly accepted in areas of the east.
Attached Images
File Type: png Screen shot 2012-04-15 at 17.10.24.png (630.1 KB, 1551 views)

Last edited by Iancar29; 15-04-2012 at 17:16.
Iancar29 is offline  
Thanks from:
15-04-2012, 17:38   #13
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,538
First decent storm in the past few years that isn't going to track north of Donegal, should be an interesting day for the south west coast

Oddly the 12Z GFS has an almost identical storm happening for the second half of the week!

Tuesday


Saturday
Harps is offline  
(4) thanks from:
15-04-2012, 18:13   #14
goat2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 4,745
what time is this storm supposed to be hitting on us, and what counties are going to be worst hit
goat2 is offline  
15-04-2012, 18:31   #15
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,993
Quote:
Originally Posted by goat2 View Post
what time is this storm supposed to be hitting on us, and what counties are going to be worst hit
If You look closely at the charts the answer is there
Things could change slightly still over the next run or 2 though..

Tuesday evening , the south and southwest.
Iancar29 is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet