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Possible Storm Tuesday 17th April

  • 12-04-2012 7:48pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭


    It looks like next Monday a deep depression will form over the near Atlantic and move close to or over Ireland during Tuesday. Its exact path and depth are still unsure but it should be enough to bring some closure to a pretty benign couple of months' weather.

    The current setup shows a deep trough over the Canadian Maritimes and a 1030 hPa Azores anticyclone, both causing a warm humid southeasterly flow over the western Atlantic. The jet is strengthening, and a surface low is now forming and will move towards Iceland over the weekend. The key feature is an upper shortwave trough following from behind, which will tighten the gradient further and form a 180 kt jet streak late on Sunday and will cause a second surface low to form and deepen rapidly during Monday. Depending on the rate of occlusion of this low, it will dive southeastwards and will pass very close to or over Ireland during Monday night and Tuesday.

    A wet and windy day is in store, with strongest winds probably on the storms western flank. It's not worth noting exact details at the moment but it is one to keep an eye on over the next few days.

    The GFS paints the most severe picture, but I would imagine it will step this down slightly in future runs. But it looks like the start of a much more mobile Atlantic phase.

    attachment.php?attachmentid=200259&stc=1&d=1334260028


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    [IMG][/img]ECM1-120_mvz5.GIF
    Good model agreement on evolution so far.

    Cheers for that analysis Su, here's to a more exciting period in what has been somewhat of a bore fest. No downgrades please.:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Looks Interesting , looking to the 18z now :)

    Met Éireanns take on the situation.

    MONDAY : Heavy rain and strengthening southerly winds will spread from the Atlantic, turning to sleet for a time in parts of the north. Clearer weather, with scattered showers, will follow on Monday night, with winds veering southwest to west.
    TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY : Cool and showery, some of the showers heavy and thundery, but there will be some sunny spells also. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds on Tuesday, with a risk of gales off Atlantic coasts, becoming moderate northerly by Wednesday.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Surprised there's not more posts here, looking like an interesting set up, GFS has the low passing right over the northern half of the country

    gfs-0-96_tdx0.png

    ECMWF has it stalling and deepening to our west before swinging south easterly


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Harps wrote: »
    Surprised there's not more posts here, looking like an interesting set up,

    I'm glued but have nothing to add.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    The worst of this storm will be to the extreme West with just strong winds elsewhere. Heavy rain too for a while but then back to the sunshine and showers set up.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Significant upgrade of the winds for tuesday on GFS and ECM this morning with the latter hinting at a repeat performance for next weekend


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    :D

    200413.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    During tomorrow the surface low develops a slack 1012-1015 hPa centre in the western Atlantic. By this time tomorrow we will see it starting to develop explosively under the right rear quadrant of that potent 180+ knots jet streak, with central pressure falling around >35 hPa in 24 hours to Monday evening.

    2012041512_38.gif

    The ECMWF is most severe and has it attaining around 965 hPa off to our northwest by 06Z Tuesday morning, while the others are around 975 hPa. In any case, all seem pretty agreed that it from then on its centre will move southeastwards over the western half of the country, bringing gales to western areas.

    Looks like nothing too extraordinary by the time it reaches us, though its winds, while still gale force in sea areas, will have eased slightly by then, with the strongest gradient off to our southwest. We could see 20-30 mm or rain in the western half of the country, with more like 10 mm in the east.

    One to watch, but nothing drastic unless you're a ship.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Which is a more likely out come? 975 hPa or 965 hPa?
    Rain and wind anyways :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    18z paints a similar picture, with strongest of the winds along the west coast:

    200501.gif

    Exact track is far from certain though as has been said so defo something to keep an eye on over the next couple of days.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Looks like the severity of the winds has dropped a bit more south .

    200553.png

    I thinks its safe to say that it IS going to be a stormy Tuesday Now.

    The rain will be gladly accepted in areas of the east.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    First decent storm in the past few years that isn't going to track north of Donegal, should be an interesting day for the south west coast

    Oddly the 12Z GFS has an almost identical storm happening for the second half of the week!

    Tuesday
    gfs-0-54_aow5.png

    Saturday
    gfs-0-138_thw3.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    what time is this storm supposed to be hitting on us, and what counties are going to be worst hit


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    goat2 wrote: »
    what time is this storm supposed to be hitting on us, and what counties are going to be worst hit

    If You look closely at the charts the answer is there :rolleyes:
    Things could change slightly still over the next run or 2 though..

    Tuesday evening , the south and southwest.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Whatever about here, western France and northern and northwestern Spain should be in for some unseasonable weather on Wednesday and Thursday as this low moves through Biscay. We'll see some coastal events over the two days, plus some good snowfalls over the northern Spanish mountains.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    301836_435194099830310_175249952491394_1942789_144747743_n.jpg

    Tis on its way! ...

    Hail and thunder is likely with this low and it makes its way across the country 2moro night into wednesday..


    ANyone for a guess of the total 24hr rainfall from 00.00 tonight?... Ill go for 25 mm at Bellmullet :)


    I'd love to see the Hermoine model run for the front making its way across the country!


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Any upgrades or downgrades on this? Considering taking a half day tomorrow to head to the coast with a camera.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Any upgrades or downgrades on this? Considering taking a half day tomorrow to head to the coast with a camera.

    Nothing dramatic man... at the moment its kerry coast that will be most effected . its the rain and possible thunder that ill be interested in :)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Nothing dramatic man... at the moment its kerry coast that will be most effected . its the rain and possible thunder that ill be interested in :)

    Agreed, More of a rain and possible thunder event than wind event for most but even at that nothing special or out of the ordinary i feel.


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Kerry LOL Yeah I think I'll give this a skip then considering it's at the bottom of the island and I'm at the top!!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Stórhöfði, in southern Iceland, reported max sustained winds of 28 m/s (55 knots) and gust of 34 m/s (66 knots) this afternoon. This sustained wind is around 20-25 knots stronger than this afternoon's Hirlam was reckoning for that area (the location is the small island just off the south coast, to the left of centre).

    200760.png

    200760.png

    There are understandably not many ship reports from the North Atlantic this evening, but hopefully if there are some braving it then we'll get a report off them at 00Z.

    The 12Z ECMWF has some 50-knot vectors near the southwest tomorrow, but it will be interesting to see if the 00Z run takes into account the stronger winds reported this afternoon. The M6 and M3 buoy reports will be interesting tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    It is a really good looking system.

    If it was to cross Ireland 100 miles further north there would be much more discussion on it and some wild weather.

    It would be a eye catching system even in the middle of winter.

    Take a look at her.

    http://www.sat24.com/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 144 ✭✭Diamond Dust


    Starting to get a bit windy here in Kerry.

    Are we still due to get the worst of it here?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Starting to get a bit windy here in Kerry.

    Are we still due to get the worst of it here?

    Yes tomorrow evening you could get gusts to 60MPH or more in exposed places.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 144 ✭✭Diamond Dust


    Yes tomorrow evening you could get gusts to 60MPH or more in exposed places.

    Thanks, driving home from work so could be tricky


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Getting windy here now, I suppose its a non event for the NW?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Getting a bit windy here even! :eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    It's one right mucky night at Cork Airport, with light rain and fog.

    EICK 162100Z 19014KT 0500 R17/0500D R35/0550N -RA FG VV001 10/10 Q1007 NOSIG=

    Visibility currently 500 metres, was 300 m at 1930Z.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Stórhöfði, in southern Iceland, reported max sustained winds of 28 m/s (55 knots) and gust of 34 m/s (66 knots) this afternoon. This sustained wind is around 20-25 knots stronger than this afternoon's Hirlam was reckoning for that area (the location is the small island just off the south coast, to the left of centre).

    200760.png


    There are understandably not many ship reports from the North Atlantic this evening, but hopefully if there are some braving it then we'll get a report off them at 00Z.

    The 12Z ECMWF has some 50-knot vectors near the southwest tomorrow, but it will be interesting to see if the 00Z run takes into account the stronger winds reported this afternoon. The M6 and M3 buoy reports will be interesting tomorrow.

    Anyone think that iceland looks a bit like a cooked chicken

    Anyways whirlpools moving down

    strong winds and rain ill do a running total for sligo and report back this time tomorrow. 1mm so far


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  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    Getting a bit windy here even! :eek:

    here too , dry as a bone though.


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