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Possibly turning much colder next week

  • 27-12-2011 6:58am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭


    From Sunday a polar maritime bias in the flow of weather is expected and this means frost and ice. Temperatures are likely to struggle around or below freezing at night and be very limited to low single figures by day which means frost and ice may be persistent through daylight hours. Showers, increasingly wintry, will also affect the country. This could be the start of a very prolonged cold spell of weather with snow increasingly likely. I will post in more detail with charts later today.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,349 ✭✭✭Jimmy Garlic


    I won't dust off the snow shovel just yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭plein de force


    I hope you're right :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    It could only get colder - the last few days have been so mild I could have BBq'd the Turkey out the back:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,237 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Ah Darkman2 returns! :-D


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    I do like a good DM2 thread! :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    I suppose much colder compared to last few days might be right :D
    Nothing frigid on the horizon though.......


  • Registered Users Posts: 21 Dinkleman


    He is back! Prob won't be cold at all!!!!!!!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,349 ✭✭✭Jimmy Garlic




  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    GFS showing a permahigh setup over Ireland for the 2 weeks from this weekend and no polar nuthin. I await Darkmans promised land charts :p !!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭WalterMitty


    get the ski ramp out.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,349 ✭✭✭Jimmy Garlic


    get the ski ramp out.


    anigif_not-sure-if-serious-gif-to-be-used-on-forums-22779-1307655858-12_preview.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    darkman2 wrote: »
    From Sunday a polar maritime bias in the flow of weather is expected and this means frost and ice. Temperatures are likely to struggle around or below freezing at night and be very limited to low single figures by day which means frost and ice may be persistent through daylight hours. Showers, increasingly wintry, will also affect the country. This could be the start of a very prolonged cold spell of weather with snow increasingly likely. I will post in more detail with charts later today.

    As with most of DM2's post about cold, a major health warning should be attached - emphasis on the word "could" noted. Looking at the 6am run of the GFS, there is no major cold forecast for Ireland right up to the 9th Jan 2012. Sorry to disappoint any cold lovers :)

    D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    ha! If anything can be predicted in for foreseeable future its that the high pressure area that's been centred around Biscay will not be moved one way or the other.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,349 ✭✭✭Jimmy Garlic


    mike65 wrote: »
    ha! If anything can be predicted in for foreseeable future its that the high pressure area that's been centred around Biscay will not be moved one way or the other.


    tumblr_l8nvh8vIWZ1qzmowao1_500.jpg

    No snow so?. can we expect rain?. I have some livestock out in the paddock that I might want to retrieve before Armageddon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭Dilynnio


    Finally...............my evening snow dance is starting to work!

    BRING IT ON! :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    ECMWF chart for next Monday:

    186361.gif

    interesting looking trough east of Newfoundland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    ECMWF chart for next Monday:

    186361.gif

    interesting looking trough east of Newfoundland.

    Interesting looking trough indeed DE - if only we could nudge it slightly west so it sits just under Greenland and starts to build, we could be in for some decent action! :D

    Simply put folks, we need the raging Atlantic with its west to east motion to stop :) If this pattern continues, we will get no easterlies and it will be game over - I am not very keen on cold north westerlies, which lets be honest, only deliver to the west and north of Ireland and even then its not the powder snow like we got in the East last year, its just wet Atlantic sleet/snow that does not tend to stick around. THE ATLANTIC JUST DOES NOT DELIVER SNOW-WISE.

    However it is only the 27th December and I am willing to put my faith in MT's forecast of some decent cold from mid Jan onwards. Hopefully the models will start showing up some decent cold from around the 5th/6th Jan onwards - as this is a good 10 days we will have to agree with MT, patience is required! ;)

    D


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Hi Deep Easterly,

    Just had a glance at the North Atlantic Pressure Chart and that high you point out does not appear at all and is instead replaced with a deep Low! :mad:

    It would appear on these charts at least, that mild westerlies will continue to dominate right up to the 2nd January 2012.

    The attached link will bring you to the NA Pressure Chart and you can run the sequence forward to see Highs and Lows out in the Atlantic.

    D

    http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=2&res=500&type=pressure&starttime=1324890000


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Treat this thread with a pinch of salt guys. There are some hints that the overall global pattern is heading from its current progressive to a more stationary or even retrogressive setup in the next 10 days, although the GFS has no such intentions. It is usually very keen to big up northerly outbreaks but it has a continuance of the zonal muck for the foreseeable. We need a polar maritime à la Greenland Express for anything decent to occur, so don't be going mad over this thread just yet. It really shuold be in the Fantasy Island at this stage.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    derekon wrote: »
    Just had a glance at the North Atlantic Pressure Chart and that high you point out does not appear at all and is instead replaced with a deep Low! :mad:

    It would appear on these charts at least, that mild westerlies will continue to dominate right up to the 2nd January 2012.


    http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=2&res=500&type=pressure&starttime=1324890000

    I focused in on the trough east of Newfoundland D, which is not a high, and I agree with you that there looks to be a continuation of these insipid (if not necessarily mild all the time) westerlies for the foreseeable.

    The tough showing up on this morning's ECMWF is of more interest to me, as it is in prime position to feed up some moist, warm air into the cooler polar air mass to the north:

    Crap interpretation of what I mean:

    186363.png

    I wasn't referring to potential cold, but more my hopes for potential cyclogenesis to flare up over the north Atlatntic for next week, but this is based on a chart in FI, and a FI chart that shows a vital, much needed upper trough too far west over northern Canada to help spur things on. In desperate times one must resort to desperate hope casting.

    C'mon Atlantic, start kickin' some ass!! :mad:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    I focused in on the trough east of Newfoundland D, which is not a high, and I agree with you that there looks to be a continuation of these insipid (if not necessarily mild all the time) westerlies for the foreseeable.

    The tough showing up on this morning's ECMWF is of more interest to me, as it is in prime position to feed up some moist, warm air into the cooler polar air mass to the north:

    Crap interpretation of what I mean:

    186363.png

    I wasn't referring to potential cold, but more my hopes for potential cyclogenesis to flare up over the north Atlatntic for next week, but this is based on a chart in FI, and a FI chart that shows a vital, much needed upper trough too far west over northern Canada to help spur things on. In desperate times one must resort to desperate hope casting.

    C'mon Atlantic, start kickin' some ass!! :mad:


    Cheers for the clarification, DE - I misread the trough as a high! I am hoping that as we head into early January, the charts will start to show up some serious cold :D

    D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    ECMWF ensemble for 10 days' time, showing a continuance of the westerlies. The low moves eastwards into the North Sea and northern Europe, but if there were a northerly dragged down behind it it would be shortlived. The troughs over northern Baffin Bay and Scandinavia are not what we want to be seeing for height rises to the north. From this chart it looks locked in for a while yet.

    186376.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    I know it would be nice to get some cold, settled crisp weather, anything is better than this real damp miserable grey muck that we are currently getting. But my concern is already focused on January and what it will pile onto me financially. Luckily with this milder mucky weather, i've reduced the central heating usage by over 50%, As there is no way i can afford to buy more oil in January.

    Shame i don't have a wind generator, I would be laughing now!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Yes, that's the upside of mild weather.

    I cannot understand why every forecaster (and I use the term lightly in some cases) is always trying to get in some prospects of cold in the future, no matter what the signs are. It's as if people hate to hear anything else and won't read further if cold's not in there. Winter forecasts have now become hunts for cold spells like the last two years, and rarely give any credence to the idea that we might get something less cold, i.e. more normal milder westerlies. The likes of Vogan, Corbyn, Madden, as well as many people on here, will clutch at anything that will put the cold vibe out there, and hence bring a feel good factor into the discussion.

    I have yet to read a winter forecast that doesn't play to the coldlovers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,326 ✭✭✭cml387


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Yes, that's the upside of mild weather.

    I cannot understand why every forecaster (and I use the term lightly in some cases) is always trying to get in some prospects of cold in the future, no matter what the signs are. It's as if people hate to hear anything else and won't read further if cold's not in there. Winter forecasts have now become hunts for cold spells like the last two years, and rarely give any credence to the idea that we might get something less cold, i.e. more normal milder westerlies. The likes of Vogan, Corbyn, Madden, as well as many people on here, will clutch at anything that will put the cold vibe out there, and hence bring a feel good factor into the discussion.

    I have yet to read a winter forecast that doesn't play to the coldlovers.

    Well said.
    I find this forum useful for an idea of weather on a longer term basis than we get from ME and I fully understand that there is a large element of speculation.
    But the snow fan-boys who seem to latch on to a single run are beginning to be something of a joke.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    12 GFS and UKMO are out for the important day 4. They show Ireland in a polar maritime flow but it's at risk of disruption by a deepening trough to the Southwest.

    Rtavn1321.png





    The 00z ECMWF maintains the polar maritime flow throughout and limits disruption of the flow allowing very cold air in the North Atlantic to get very close to and eventually over the country by Monday.


    The key difference between the models right now appears to be the profile of the jet stream. Trough disruption may occur on the 12z GFS but a slight weakening of this streak across the Atlantic and slightly further South would see it much closer to the ECM for next week.

    Rtavn13214.png


    Best to wait for the 12z ECM and then see in more detail exactly what the situation is between the models. For the moment the GFS and UKMO are heading in the right direction for a colder outcome and less trough disruption.


    GFS and UKMO @ 120hrs (Sunday).

    GFS

    Rtavn1201.png

    UKMO

    Rukm1201.gif


    P.S I edited the thread title. It's not nailed on yet but is a good possibility.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    It's the wrong air source for true snowy cold darkman2.
    Too much of a long Atlantic sea track making for sleety muck in populated coastal urban areas of the west.
    Showers in flows like that would be weak/dying out past the midlands
    so nothing to get too excited about (yet) folks even if it does pan out.

    Mid Atlantic highs,Greenland highs or a super Scandinavian high are the better show in town.

    That said,those may evolve after we go through the sleety northwesterly set up you're describing first.
    It's often a stepping stone synoptically to what we really want as cold snow fans and that is something similar to Dec 10 or January 10.
    I'm hopeful in the MT camp still on that one,that something proper cold will have bedded in by mid to late January or by mid February at the latest.
    We'll see :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 190 ✭✭Stacey.


    Hopefully it gets colder soon, it's supposed to be winter >_>


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Abit of exaggeration here!

    We look faced with a prediomately above average zonal flow for the next 7-10 days with what appears like more mild maritime influence than cool maritime?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    It's looking like a repeat of the mild,cold,mild,cold zonal setup of the first 3 weeks of December for the first 10 days or more of January.


This discussion has been closed.
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