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24-12-2011, 01:02   #1
 
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Storm Conditions Tuesday night/ Wednesday (Wind gusts from 100km/hr to 140km/hr)

Jean Byrne on the late bulletin mentioned that they're keeping an eye on a depression that will pass by the northwest late Tuesday and deepen further as it crosses Scotland Wednesday.

Most of the models do show a low forming near the Azores during Monday as a cold plunge from Baffin Bay strengthens the southwesterly jetstream. The low travels northeastwards, strengthening as it does so, and passes to our northwest, en route to Scotland. There is a lot of variation in the models, and in fact the GEM shows no sign of such a system, instead building the Azores high over us instead. The ECMWF and BOM show the deepest system with the GFS and UKMO less intense. In any case, it is not yet at its deepest as it passes us, but it could bring some strong and possibly stormy winds to the northern half of the country as it deepens over Scotland. With its source near the Azores it will have abundant moisture, so could give decent rainfall depending on its exact track and speed.

Could of course be nothing, but it is something to tide us over in an otherwise quiet time weatherwise! Key factors influencing its evolution will be the extent of the cold plung from Baffin Bay and the exact development of the jet. All very sizeable factors in a data-sparse area, and we all know that these are what sent Joachim south a few weeks ago.

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Last edited by Su Campu; 24-12-2011 at 01:26.
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24-12-2011, 01:36   #2
Elmer Blooker
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And Jean B also said the mild weather will return after this (potential) storm which means that high pressure to the south will rebuild. This is very ominous, believe me, I think we are getting stuck in a rut that could last up to 6-8 weeks and one of the mildest Januarys on record could be on the cards.
Regards, Scrooge.
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24-12-2011, 01:40   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elmer Blooker View Post
And Jean B also said the mild weather will return after this (potential) storm which means that high pressure to the south will rebuild. This is very ominous, believe me, I think we are getting stuck in a rut that could last up to 6-8 weeks and one of the mildest Januarys on record could be on the cards.
Regards, Scrooge.
Even Scrooge came up trumps in the end Keep the faith and I'l be smacking you with a snowball come January.
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24-12-2011, 11:22   #4
 
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Not much going on for us in the latest runs, but it looks like possibly hurricane force winds in western Scotland during Wednesday, and possibly some wintry showers on hills in Ulster for a time.



It's a very complex upper pattern in mid Atlantic, near 25W, that will continue cause some uncertainty in how the low evolves, and it could go either way.

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24-12-2011, 13:37   #5
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Vedur.is shows it staing far enough offshore that it will not bother us as it tracks up Tuesday. It veers east tuesday night and heads towards the north sea. Were it to veer east sooner we would be smacked of a Tuesday.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts...tic/#type=wind


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24-12-2011, 14:29   #6
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Windy out there now.
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24-12-2011, 21:14   #7
 
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12z run is still showing potential for gales or strong gales in northern areas for Wednesday:



Even if this doesn't affect us directly, it is going to be interesting to monitor the development and track of this (potential) storm low.
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24-12-2011, 22:05   #8
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will this drag colder air behind it or is it too far north too really have a cold effect on us
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24-12-2011, 22:30   #9
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18Z GFS brings strong winds to exposed northwest/north coasts, but nothing more than they are used to.

More stormy conditions for Scotland.

At least its something to follow anyway, things would need to change for there to be any significant impact here.
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24-12-2011, 22:39   #10
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Yep GFS now going with a deeper system.

ECM was first to predict this system being strong and the other models
are slowly moving towards a consensus.

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24-12-2011, 23:12   #11
 
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It's just getting into the Hirlam's 60 hour timeframe now, which has it forming from a pool of +50 °C theta-e due west of the Azores on Monday morning. What's keeping its track to our west is a building blocking high over France, which will reach up to 1045 hPa over the bext 36 hours, fed by a strong 200 mph jet. Any change in this blocking high will cause a shift in the depression's track, so we'll keep an eye on that.

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25-12-2011, 02:02   #12
 
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Quote:
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will this drag colder air behind it or is it too far north too really have a cold effect on us
Looking like it will draw in some cooler air behind it:



but nothing more than a watery, westerly based Pm (mP) air mass bringing a few weak showers, that may turn wintry esp on hills in the NW which is in keeping with the current trend this winter so far.
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25-12-2011, 10:12   #13
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Here is the latest chart for the period of concern.

Most models have this well off the north coast but still some time to change.

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25-12-2011, 20:42   #14
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Hi folks.

Just to highlight that the GFS 12z is very firm with placing this further north however a glance at the control run and the ENS would illustrate that the track of this low could come further south.

Here is an example to highlight.

Obviously the OP run is more resolved and should have a better prediction but one to watch.

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25-12-2011, 22:11   #15
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I suppose the big variable...like the variable that affected the second storm last week that eventually went to Europe instead is how it is ingested and driven by the Jet Stream.

Start with Tomorrow, strong system progress northwards driven by Jet.



By Tuesday the Jetstrem is pronounced southerly rather than westerly and weakened. Unlikely to come right at us from the W or SW at that point and carried northwards past the west of Ireland



Finally the whole stream moves east early weds, I'll show the 6z prognosis not the 12z. The storm is caught in a hole west of it and drifting slowly eastwards. We are caught in a NW - W airflow especially across the north of the country.



Jetstream reforms and in conjunction with storm centred to Noreast blows some graupel across us from the NW on Thursday.

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