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Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

  • 06-12-2011 6:41pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Well originally i anticipated the low would slam into Scotland and the northern Isles but over recent model runs the deep low pressure system has been placed further south with northern counties of Ulster at risk of extreme winds.

    The exact track and depth of the low will be difficult to pin point until tomorrow evening. However i feel it necessary to start this thread to put a warning out there.

    The system is picked up by the ECM as a vicious system with exceptional winds at its left exit perilously close to the north coast.

    Please stay tuned, it will turn windy this evening and overnight across much of the country but this event is expected to hit Thursday and it will be tracked with great concern by Met.IE / Metoffice and your boardsies.

    There is also the risk of blizzards if the system does reach the mainland.

    Wind gust estimates at this stage are uncertain but this could be extremely severe and we are considering the possibility of gusts in excess of 150km/hr.

    Of course it may not come to pass or move further north.

    Recm481.gif

    While the GFS throws an extreme gradient a little further north

    Rtavn481.png


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Well originally i anticipated the low would slam into Scotland and the northern Isles but over recent model runs the deep low pressure system has been placed further south with northern counties of Ulster at risk of extreme winds.

    The exact track and depth of the low will be difficult to pin point until tomorrow evening. However i feel it necessary to start this thread to put a warning out there.

    The system is picked up by the ECM as a vicious system with exceptional winds at its left exit perilously close to the north coast.

    Please stay tuned, it will turn windy this evening and overnight across much of the country but this event is expected to hit Thursday and it will be tracked with great concern by Met.IE / Metoffice and your boardsies.

    There is also the risk of blizzards if the system does reach the mainland.

    Wind gust estimates at this stage are uncertain but this could be extremely severe and we are considering the possibility of gusts in excess of 150km/hr.

    Of course it may not come to pass or move further north.


    Oohhhh exciting weather !!! :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Ahorseofaman


    Is this the same system that Met E are saying will bring potential large amounts snow on saturday night?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Is this the same system that Met E are saying will bring potential large amounts snow on saturday night?

    No. That's a different system.


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Ahorseofaman


    Interesting few days ahead then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭Caitriona


    Blizzards? Actualy blizzards? Oh no, I'm going to have to get a new F5 key...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    It looks potentially bad for Scotland and Northern England alright. A lot less for Ireland if the 12Z GFS track verified.

    Even though the 12Z track shifted south, these lows usually end up tracking further north than the models forecast. Still though, its an interesting one.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Loving the weather at the moment , even without the snow in my back yard the weather of late has been interesting to say the least


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    13th/14th also needs to be watched for a potential severe wind event. The ECM and several of the GFS ensembles show this, some with extreme low pressure.

    2czdcee.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    :rolleyes: Has the bottom of the chart been cut in the budget ?? :p

    How low pressure are we talking ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,070 ✭✭✭ScouseMouse


    Oh crap.

    Dont mean to go off topic folks but I am gonna have to watch this like a hawk. On a ferry ferry - the big ones, on Friday morning and back Sunday night, with drive from Holyhead to Liverpool.

    Anyone take a guess what all this will mean. Will there be any disruption or is to early to guess ???

    Thanks


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Oh crap.

    Dont mean to go off topic folks but I am gonna have to watch this like a hawk. On a ferry ferry - the big ones, on Friday morning and back Sunday night, with drive from Holyhead to Liverpool.

    Anyone take a guess what all this will mean. Will there be any disruption or is to early to guess ???

    Thanks

    The worst winds to hit the Irish sea are likely to hit Thursday evening, and i would expect Thursday afternoons crossing to perhaps be delayed as winds in the Irish sea are expected to be sustained 50-60mph gusting 70-80mph.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭bryaner


    Oh crap.

    Dont mean to go off topic folks but I am gonna have to watch this like a hawk. On a ferry ferry - the big ones, on Friday morning and back Sunday night, with drive from Holyhead to Liverpool.

    Anyone take a guess what all this will mean. Will there be any disruption or is to early to guess ???

    Thanks

    Wear a pair of wellies for getting trough the puke..


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    a lot of lows flyin in towards us in the last few days , met eir are sayin tonights winds could be the strongest but are mentioning it will be very windy later in the week , there prob seeing the severe low on thursday drifting further north by then but either way ulster could get a serious pounding this week.... kinda glad im down here in the balmy southeast;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 179 ✭✭smallwonder


    The system is picked up by the ECM as a vicious system with exceptional winds at its left exit perilously close to the north coast.

    I may have to cancel tea on the veranda :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Some woman was on the telephone saying there was going to be a hurricane...:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 206 ✭✭megatron989


    Every wind event is called a hurricane by some mad owl one and then spreads like fire. We should be so lucky!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,791 ✭✭✭JJJJNR


    Oh crap.

    Dont mean to go off topic folks but I am gonna have to watch this like a hawk. On a ferry ferry - the big ones, on Friday morning and back Sunday night, with drive from Holyhead to Liverpool.

    Anyone take a guess what all this will mean. Will there be any disruption or is to early to guess ???

    Thanks

    :D



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Every wind event is called a hurricane by some mad owl one and then spreads like fire. We should be so lucky!

    i was trying to think of the Micky Fish quote


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Storm is tracking further north on the 18Z so far though it looks a bit more intense.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    It almost looks a replica of Carmen in November 2010.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 234 ✭✭konman


    Storm is tracking further north on the 18Z so far though it looks a bit more intense.

    Hi maq just wondering what your thoughts are on the storm thats on the models for monday and tuesday next. sorry i know its off thread topic.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Not that far north from us, deepens slightly earlier in this run.

    Bombs 30mb in just 12 hours

    Rtavn481.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,312 ✭✭✭naughto


    Su Campu wrote: »
    It almost looks a replica of Carmen in November 2010.
    balls looks like my fence is in for a doing again


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    gotta say i dont think this will pan out as severe as some are sayin [ no expert view just a follower] but this kinda setup has been predicted so many times in the past and 95% dont turn out as bad as predicted but i can understand the concern because its still possible. still reckon people in ulster should keep up to date with this system


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    That's some hurricane-force gradient over western Scotland and NI! :eek:

    184150.gif


    11120812_2_0612.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,312 ✭✭✭naughto


    your some man for the maps Su Campu keep it up


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Even though its a little further north on the 18Z, because its more intense the max gusts for Northern Ireland are actually higher than on the 12Z. 70-75mph gusts just off the north coast.

    Scotland takes a hammering.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    gotta say i dont think this will pan out as severe as some are sayin [ no expert view just a follower] but this kinda setup has been predicted so many times in the past and 95% dont turn out as bad as predicted but i can understand the concern because its still possible. still reckon people in ulster should keep up to date with this system

    It's less than 48 hours out and there is good agreement between the main models on this event so a major downgrade at this stage is very unlikely. The track and exact intensity still has to be nailed though and that will determind who gets the windy conditons and who gets the stormy conditions.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Amazing how quick these things can show up, this time last night there was nothing but a typical windy day across all the main models yet suddenly the biggest storm of the year pops up only two days away!

    I know the exact track and intensity will change with every run but its looking like a potentially dangerous storm for around here


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Su Campu wrote: »
    That's some hurricane-force gradient over western Scotland and NI! :eek:

    184150.gif


    You could SURF those isobars there that steep!!! ...


    :pac:

    surfing1_browse.jpg


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